Tunnel Cost Model

The substantial investment in tunnels anticipated in the next twenty years has focused new attention on the economics of tunnel construction itself and on some costly problems associated with underground work: the uncertain geologic conditions, the performance and adaptability of men and equipment, and the need for quicker, more efficient excavation methods. There also exists a need to develop better ways of estimating tunnel construction. Inaccuracies in current bid estimates stem from a number of causes, among them (1) the effects of geologic conditions, which are not adequately known prior to construction, (2) the dependence of actual cost on the construction method used and on the interactions among the operations occurring underground, and (3) the reliability of tunneling equipment. Inability to estimate final costs for conventional tunneling more accurately has in turn caused difficulty in gauging the costs and benefits attributable to new tunneling technologies either under development or for which R&D programs are planned. ATTRIBUTES OF THE TUNNEL COST MODEL This paper presents a computer based Tunnel Cost Model (TCM) which quantitatively assesses the uncertainties inherent in underground work, and is detailed enough to aid in preparing estimates or bids. The model employs appropriate techniques of subjective (or "degree of belief") probability and computer simulation of tunnel construction operations to estimate distributions of total tunnel