Uncertainty In Planning ARD Control Measures: Risk Modeling And Interpretation

Materials which are likely to produce Acid Rock Drainage (ARV) can be identified with a reasonable degree of certainty. However, it is not currently possible to predict the concentrations of future contaminant discharges with similar confidence. One way of overcoming this problem is to model the uncertainty in knowledge related to estimates of future contaminant concentrations, and utilize this information in a decision model to decide on acceptable levels of expenditure on ARV control measures. The paper presents a risk modeling approach and proposes a decision model.