Updating Open Pit Slope Stability Based on Bayesian Approach

A probabilistic approach is proposed for updating open pit slope sta- bility based on successful performance. The suggested approach is developed within the framework of Bayesian probability theory. In seeking solutions to geomechanics problems consideration must be given to inher- ent variability of shear strength parameters and to the errors in the esti- mation of these parameters. The latter can be significant and may lead to consistent overestimation or underestimation of the values derived from site investigation and testing. Conventional deterministic methods of slope stability analysis do not allow systematic modelling of uncertainties in applied loads or in shear strength parameters. Within a probabilistic framework indicators of stability may be calculated, e.g., the reliability index and the probability of failure. Based on observation of slope per- formance at any given stage of a project, the mean or the standard devi- ation (or both) of a shear strength parameter may be updated. Consequently the indicators of stability can also be updated. The appli- cation of such an approach is demonstrated by an illustrative example.