Uranium Supply And Demand Worldwide Review ? Introduction

In the fairly recent past, with a history of cheap and abundant energy, it has been possible to predict with reasonable confidence that world energy demand would continue to double about every 15 years. Those who attempted to forecast the role of nuclear energy in future electricity generation could also start with the fairly safe assumption that electricity demand would increase even faster : with a doubling in demand about every 10 years. To estimate the likely future world demand for uranium it was then necessary to introduce a number of other assumptions including the rate of penetration of nuclear energy, the timing and the specific fuel requirements. This series of assumptions naturally compounded the uncertainty, but, remarkably, usually led to future uranium demands being overestimated. Such a bias which has almost always been observed in predictions made over the past 20 years has increasingly made uranium producers sceptical when expected to match the forecast demand with increased production capacity and supporting reserves. This scepticism has, of course, been reinforced by the persistence so far of a buyers' market in uranium throughout the entire period of emergence of commercial nuclear electricity generation.