US and the world mineral positions, 1985 to the year 2000

Introduction The US Bureau of Mines' (USBM) world reserve/consumption ratios (Table 1) indicate that, if the world is relatively peaceful in the next two decades, there should be ample world supplies of minerals to permit rising standards of living for increasing world population. But it must be remembered that most mineral reserve estimates are conservative and that normal mining practice is to develop a ton of ore reserve for every ton mined. It should be noted that "reserve," as used in this paper follows the definition given in US Geological Survey (USGS) Circular 831, 1980; "that part of the reserve base which could be economically extracted or produced at the time of the determination." In addition to accurately determining the geologic parameters of mineral deposits, a judgment as to whether that deposit is a "reserve" per se involves consideration of many other factors. These factors were recognized nearly a century ago by a well-known mining engineer and later President, Herbert Hoover. In "Principles of Mining," 1909, Hoover wrote: "Unfortunately for the mining engineer, not only has he to weigh the amount of risk inherent in calculations involved in the mine itself, but also that due to fluctuations in the value of metals. If the ore is shipped to custom works, he has to contemplate also variations in freights and smelting charges ...In a free market, the law of supply and demand governs the values of metals as it does that of all other commodities. So far, except for tariff walls and smelting rings, there is a free market in the metals under discussion. The demand for metals varies with the unequal fluctuations of the industrial tides. The sea of commercial activity is subject to heavy storms, and the mine valuer is compelled to serve as weather prophet on this ocean of trouble. High prices, which are the result of industrial booms, bring about overproduction, and the collapse of these begets a shrinkage of demand, wherein consequently the tide of price turns back." Current supplies and use There have been ample supplies of most mineral materials to permit several-fold increases of world production of common major mineral based minerals (steel, aluminum, copper, and cement) over the past three decades. Motor vehicle production is a major consumer of mineral materials. However, in the last decade, down-sizing to facilitate improved fuel efficiency and reduce harmful emissions has reduced the weight of the average US-made automobile 15%, to 1.5 t (3200 lbs). Also in the US, there are 92 million dwelling units, or on average, fewer than three persons per dwelling unit. Construction is another major consumer of materials in the industrialized developed countries. It will also be a major consumer of materials worldwide as less developed nations seek to improve their infrastructures by adding roads, bridges, railroads, airfields, ports, and housing. Fortunately, a large number of traditional common materials, many of mineral origin and also many of agricultural origin, are readily available for construction. Traditional construction materials such as steel, aluminum, copper, and cement, are being replaced in many applications by engineered plastic and ceramic