Use of Conditional Simulation to Determine the Minimum Sampling Requirements of Run-of-Mine Coal

Determination of the minimum sampling requirements of the run-of-mine (ROM) coal is very important for the purpose of meeting contract specifications. It is also important for the purpose of meeting emission regulations at a coal-burning power plant, such as the one located at Homer City, Pa. The classical statistical sampling theory can be applied to this problem, if ROM coal samples are known to be spatially (or serially) uncorrelated. On the other hand, the estimation variance concept from the Matherson's geostatistics must be used, if the samples are spatially correlated. Conditional simulation technique combined with simulation of the existing mining method is used to determine under which circumstances ROM coal samples do not preserve the spatial correlation. Only after establishing the degree of correlation that exists among ROM samples, an optimal sampling scheme can be devised using either the classical statistics Or the geostatistics. The minimum required sample volume can then be calculated using the well-known Gy's formula. This paper describes the results of the above investigation using the Helen coal mine data of the Homer City Owners. Empirical guidelines for determining the degree of correlation are also provided for coal mine operators.