Using Diamond Drill Hole Data to Project Open Pit Ore Production

In the exploitation of large porphyry type deposits where a cut-off has to be applied and where "internal waste" exists, planning people ask the geologist for the estimated grade of small blocks. Comparison with actual production figures and blast hole assays shows that any kind of weighted average of neighboring DDH (diamond drill hole) samples provides an excessingly smooth picture of reality, resulting most of the time in overevaluation of tons of ore. Solutions based on examination of Past production data exist14 but it would be necessary to have a solution which can be applied before production starts as the preceeding problem also results in an overestimation of the total reserves, often by as much as 20%, thus changing the mine life accordingly and destroying any "optimum planning" which could have been done. The proposed alternative is to forecast the grade distribution of small blocks in a larger block, sufficiently well documented. Several Possible ways to estimate these distributions are reviewed and emphasis is placed on recently developed methods (source G. Matheron) where the coefficients of the orthogonal polynomial series expansion of the distribution of any size of block are directly estimated by kriging. The efficiency of the technique is tested on a level of the Cyprus Pima open pit where the predicted recovery is compared to actual production figures.