Utility-based framework for optimal mine layout selection, subject to multiple-attribute decision criteria

Four mining alternatives for exploiting an ultra-deep orebody were assessed through a multidisciplinary evaluation process which involved: the generation of a 3D geological model; the design and scheduling of life-of-mine layouts; the analysis of anticipated ventilation and cooling conditions; the study of rock-related risks of mining in ultra-deep stress environments; the logistic implications of transporting men, rock and materials; and, lastly, the economic implications of each option. Once results from the integrated mine design assessment were available, mine planners were faced with an important problem to solve: how to identify the optimal mine design alternative when numerous assessment measures and multiple decision criteria needed to be considered simultaneously? To address this ‘multiple-attribute decision problem’ and arrive at the ‘optimal layout for ultra-depth’, a generic decision methodology that uses principles of ‘utility’ was applied. The methodology assumes that ‘single-value risk estimators’ do not account for the inherent variability of real conditions. Therefore, risk estimators were represented by statistical distributions of their incremental changes, where applicable. The stochastic variables, once defined, are used as inputs in the ‘utility’-based layout decision scheme. This ‘utility’-based decision methodology offers a framework for mine design decisions to be made objectively, when complex trade-offs between multiple risk domains need to be considered simultaneously. Upon applying it, one of the layouts emerged as the preferred alternative. Keywords: Utility; mine design; multiple-attribute decision; layout selection