Valuing Mineral Opportunities as Options

"Traditional techniques for valuing resource projects companies have been primarily based on discounted cashflow methods (DCF) or by comparison to similar projects with an apparent market capitalization. Many resource projects are really forms of options to invest rather than a future cashflow stream. Employing the DCF method to value a resource project which is really an option to invest, can dramatically underestimate the real value of the project. The analytical tools required to evaluate options, while more complicated than the usual spreadsheets used for DCF, are becoming more easily available and usable by managers. This paper will discuss the background of options valuation and some of the tools which will make it easier for managers to estimate the value of projects and companies which have significant real option values.ResumeBob McKnight is a graduate of the University of British Columbia in Geological Engineering, supplemented by an MBA from Simon Fraser University. Following several years in the oil patch with Cities Service and Brascan, Bob returned to Vancouver in 1979 to work for Wright Engineers. He subsequently went on to work for Cassiar Mining, Getty Resources and Endeavour Financial before joining Pincock Allen & Holt Ltd. in 1998. His experience ranges from exploration to feasibility studies, financial evaluations of mining and oil & gas projects, due diligence, project finance, valuations and mergers and acquisitions. He has extensive international mining experience pertaining to such countries as Chile, Mexico, Uruguay, Thailand, Indonesia, Angola, Papua New Guinea, Kazakhstan.What are Options?Options have been around for centuries. They were familiar to Roman and Phoenician traders who were shipping cargoes from Mediterranean seaports. In the financial world, options are types of contracts that generally include the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell a share, currency or commodity. The underlying commodity price or share price changes are assumed to be lognormally distributed. In this context, options are of two general types, ""call"" options and ""put"" options. Call options have the characteristic of having the right to buy a tradable commodity or currency at a predetermined price for a specified period of time. For the owner of call options, they become more valuable as the price of the underlying commodity increases. For the seller of call options, these options become an increasing liability as commodity prices rise, since there is the obligation to sell the commodity at a predetermined (perhaps lower-than-market) price. This characteristic of call options recently became high profile with the sharp rise in gold prices last year. The value of gold call options sold by certain producers increased their associated liabilities to the point where margin calls were made."