Volumetric Reserves And Probability Estimates

The volumetric method of estimating hydrocarbon resources and recoverable reserves is and probably will remain a dominant method in petroleum engineering. The method is technically very simple, but has one main problem: how to express, measure and properly handle the variable and complex uncertainty of each estimate. The computer age brought in the Monte Carlo Simulation method which enables correct arithmetic operation using data with specified probability distribution. However, several problems are still not solved uniquely and still exist. For instance, the determination and description of the distribution of single parameters, the determination of the degree of dependency between parameters (e.g. hydrocarbon saturation-porosity), and standard probabilist- ic definition of generally used categories (e.g. proved, probable, possible). Methods for handling these problems are discussed.