Water management simulation for the Pogo Gold Mine

As part of the EIS and permitting activities for the Pogo Mine in Alaska, a risk assessment study for the water management plan was carried out. The basis for the study was a site water volume and contaminant balance model. Probabilistic modeling was carried out using the @Risk Monte Carlo simulation package to investigate the frequency, quantity, and quality of discharges under varying assumptions. The results were used in discussions with regulatory officials as part of the permitting process for the project. The simulation allows probabilistic modeling of key environmental parameters based on input frequency distributions involving both quality and quantity of flow. When combined with predictions of water treatment plant capacities and removal efficiency, this was very useful for defining the likelihood of important regulatory outcomes. Based on the model, certain project modifications were made. Using the simulation as a basis, ongoing dialog with regulators led to consensus that all potential risks have been considered and mitigated for the Pogo Mine according to their likelihood and severity, and that regulatory requirements would be achieved. The paper describes the model and some of the applications for which it was used.