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Visit to the Modderfontein factory of A. E. & C. I. Ltd 23rd November, 1972 A full programme was arranged to suit both the mining and metallurgical sections of the Institute. After refreshments were taken and visitors welcomed by the factory management we were split into two groups, viz metallurgical and mining. Book review Stress-relief Heat Treatment of Vanadium Steels by Or G. O. Joy and Or A. M. Sage (21 pp, 77 references).

By M. Hermanus, N. Coulson, N. Pillay

"SynopsisThis paper assesses the effectiveness of the Mine Occupational Health and Safety Leading Practice Adoption System (MOSH) and its potential to improve mine health and safety in South African mines. Developed by the Chamber of Mines, which represents the majority of the country's large scale mining employers, MOSH was devised to accelerate progress towards achieving health and safety milestones, which were set by tripartite agreement in 2003. The paper documents and builds on the findings of a study conducted by the Centre for Sustainability in Mining and Industry (CSMI) in 2011 that evaluated MOSH strategy, structures, and process of implementation.The study found that MOSH operated across the mining sector, was directed and dominated by experts and, despite best efforts to include other stakeholders, was led by employers. Statutory worker health and safety representatives and structures were not integrated into the complex change process developed by MOSH. The Mine Health and Safety Inspectorate (MHSI) and organized labour were ambivalent about direct involvement in MOSH and preferred regulatory measures to enforce the participation of mines. MOSH interventions were not targeted at mines with a poor health and safety record, and MOSH lacked a baseline from which to track impacts on sector-wide health and safety performance. The leading practices most widely adopted by mines were designed to improve, rather than fundamentally alter, existing practice. Although the depth of engagement with MOSH among stakeholders and on mine sites varied, mining companies, labour representatives, and the Mine Health and Safety Inspectorate (MHSI) saw the programme as significant.IntroductionIn 2011, the Chamber of Mines commissioned the Centre for Sustainability in Mining and Industry (CSMI) to evaluate the progress and effectiveness of the rollout of the Mine Occupational Health and Safety Leading Practice Adoption System (MOSH). CSMI, based in the School of Mining Engineering at the University of the Witwatersrand, is an independent research centre conducting health and safety research relevant to all major stakeholders in the mining sector. The purpose of the evaluation was to identify the factors that enabled or hampered the adoption of new technologies or practices. The timing of the evaluation, two years before the deadline for the 2013 safety and health milestones, allowed time for adjustments to be made. This paper summarizes the results of the evaluation and includes further analysis and discussion of the nature of the programme and the conditions that act to advance it or it hold back."

Jan 1, 2015

By A. Lebedev

Application of dynamic simulation for a base metal processing plant is discussed. The plant receives ore of variable quality from two pits and blending had to be applied to maximise recovery. The plant employs multiple stage crushing, screening, dense media separation, two-stage milling, flotation and further filtration. Stockpiles and bunkers are used in the plant to cater for breakdowns and operating delays, the latter being appropriately incorporated in the model. A detail dynamic simulation model was constructed from the rock face to the filtration plant to assist the plant design, notably with definition of the ore blending method, sizing storage capacity and in-plant conveyors. The plant model was broken down to capital equipment items and various feed types and mass balances were tested to ensure that the production target is met. The dynamic simulation tested the proposed blending method, identified bottlenecks, produced risk profiles for all strategic storage facilities and overall helped minimise the project risks and improve confidence in the plant design. Keywords: Dynamic simulation, ore grade, blending, capacity, risk profile, throughput, utilisation

Jan 1, 2020

By Gerard de Vries

pipeline industry and are still growing in size. Liquid epoxy and polyurethanes are an excellent choice for whatever the aggressiveness of the substance transported and whatever the harmful outside influences, maximum protection is required. They can be used as coatings on all kind of pipelines varying from the mainline coating to the field joint coating. Compared with traditional systems like dual layer FBE and 3-layer polyolefin there are some benefits to be considered like easiness of repairs, amount of coats, application temperature and film thickness. The interior coating renders the pipe surface so much smoother that considerable savings can be realized in pump stations. Apart from the interior of the pipeline, the industry is faced with new challenges like higher operating temperatures of lines and an emphasis on product benefits in order to save money. Key words: liquid epoxy, liquid polyurethane, phenolic epoxy, pipeline, field joint coating, internal coating, corrosion control

Jan 1, 2006

Models are used in engineering to reproduce reality as faithfully as possible so that the expected response of a system for given actions or inputs can be determined. In the field of rock engineering, both empirically based and numerical models are widely used to determine the likely response of the rock surrounding excavations. Many of the empirical models are developed from statistical analysis of case histories or from direct observation; however, empirical models are limited because they should be used only within the range of conditions of the observational database. Synergy exists between empirical and numerical models, because empirical models can be used to calibrate and validate numerical models. The empirical approach can benefit from the capability of numerical models to investigate specific mechanisms, which would not be possible using observations alone. Two cases are presented in which the synergy between empirical and numerical models is demonstrated. The first case examines the analysis of discontinuity effects on the strength of slender pillars in limestone mines, and the second case evaluates the effects of stress orientation on coal mine entry stability. It is concluded that numerical model calibration and verification comprises an important first stage in the successful application of models in rock engineering design. Application of numerical models allows mechanisms and interactions of various parameters to be analysed, greatly improving the understanding of the system. The improved understanding can be used to extend the application of empirical design methods, resulting in improved safety and efficiency of rock engineering designs.

Jan 1, 2014

By N. P. Mahumapelo

This paper is based on a study to determine the potential beneficiation opportunities for marble from Griekwastad in the Northern Cape Province. The marble was characterized mineralogically by X-ray diffraction. Major and trace elements were determined using inductively coupled plasma-optical emission spectroscopy. The sample was crushed, and the crushed material beneficiated by tumbling and polishing. The resulting beads were incorporated into a variety of jewellery and other decorative items. It is concluded that the beneficiation of Griekwastad marble presents a good opportunity for value addition and job creation, provided that an effective marketing strategy for the products can be developed..

Jan 1, 2014

By D. Paktunc, S. P. du Preez, J. P. Beukes, P. G. van Zyl, A. Jordaan

"The chromium (Cr) content of stainless steel originates from recycled scrap and/or ferrochrome (FeCr), which is produced mainly by the carbothermic reduction of chromite ore. The oxidative sintered pellet production process is one of the most widely applied FeCr processes. The supplier of this technology specifies that recycling of chromite-containing dust collected from the pellet sintering off-gas and fines screened out from the sintered pellets (collectively referred to as pre-oxidized chromite fines) should be limited to a maximum of 4 wt% of the total pellet composition. However, the results presented in this paper suggest that recycling of such fines up to a limit of 32 wt% of the total pellet composition may improve the compressive and abrasion strengths of the cured pellet. In addition, electron microprobe and quantitative X-ray diffraction (XRD) analyses demonstrate that chromite grains present in the pre-oxidized chromite fines consist, at least partially, of crystalline phases/compounds that will improve the metallurgical efficiency and specific electricity consumption (i.e. MWh/ton FeCr produced) of the smelting process. Introduction Stainless steel is a vital modern-day alloy that is well-known for its corrosion resistance, which is mainly due to the inclusion of chromium (Cr) (ICDA, 2013). Stainless steel is mostly produced from recycled scrap and ferrochrome (FeCr), a relatively crude alloy of Cr and iron (Fe). FeCr is predominantly produced by the carbothermic reduction of chromite, a mineral belonging to the spinel group characterized by the unit formula [(Mg,Fe2+)(Al,Cr,Fe3+)2O4] (Haggerty, 1991; Paktunc and Cabri, 1995; Tathavakar, Antony, and Jha, 2005). Although Cr can occur in 82 different minerals, chromite is the only source of new Cr units that can be exploited in commercial volumes (Motzer and Engineers, 2004). Approximately 95% of mined chromite is used in the production of various FeCr grades, of which high-carbon and charge grade FeCr are the most common (ICDA, 2013)."

Feb 1, 2019

By J. H. Zietsman, M. W. Erwee, Q. G. Reynolds

Pyrometallurgical furnaces, essential for metal extraction, operate at temperatures exceeding 1600°C and represent complex multiphase systems that challenge direct industrial research. Multiphysics models play a key role in shedding light on their intricate behaviours, supporting the refinement of design and operational strategies. Integral to the operation are the tap-holes, which facilitate the removal of molten products and are routinely opened by lancing, a process comparable to the use of a cutting torch, where high temperatures result from oxygen reacting with an iron lance. When the lance pierces the clay, oxygen gas enters the furnace, which could influence the behaviour of the molten material inside. In this work, a multiphase fluid flow model was used to investigate bulk flow dynamics, with a focus on the effects of the lancing process on the inside of the furnace, immediately behind the tap-hole. Incompressible and compressible multiphase fluid solvers were used and compared with respect their performance – the intention was to assess whether using a compressible solver would yield a different solution to the incompressible one. It was concluded that there are negligible disparities in bulk fluid flow behaviour between the solvers for the case studies examined, indicating that solver selection might be less consequential for certain aspects of oxygen lancing.

Apr 16, 2024

By N. J. Wagner, D. G. Modiba

There is currently limited knowledge concerning South African coal deposits as hosts for rare earth elements (REE). This project aims to determine the concentration of REE, including yttrium and scandium (REY+Sc) in various coal seams and adjacent sediments in borehole cores from the Ermelo, Witbank, and Waterberg coalfields in South Africa. Coal petrography (maceral count and vitrinite reflectance), XRD, XRF, sequential chemical extraction procedure (SCEP) before ICPMS, and mineral liberation analysis (MLA) were conducted on the coal and associated sediment samples. The coals were inertinite-rich, medium-rank bituminous coal, with moderate to high ash content. The two dominant minerals in all the coalfields are kaolinite and quartz, except for sample ZBS2M, where dolomite was dominant. The dominant major oxides are Al2O3, SiO2, Fe2O3, and CaO, which concur with the XRD results. The ICP-MS results following SCEP indicated that both coal and the associated sediments were light REY+Sc dominant. There was also an elevation of medium REY+Sc in the Witbank coal’s associated sediment samples. Notably, the samples with the highest REY+Sc results were the sediment samples. The Waterberg samples had the lowest REY+Sc from both the coal (less than 2 μg/g to 7 μg/g) and associated sediments (2 μg/g to 15 μg/g). While the highest REY+Sc was yielded from the Witbank-associated sediments (500 μg/g to 2,500 μg/g). The carbonate fraction step proved to be the most successful leaching step, as most REY+Sc was recovered in that step for all coalfields. In addition to the carbonate fraction, the silicates and sulfide fraction in the Witbank samples, and the ion-exchangeable fraction for the Waterbergassociated sediments samples proved successful in leaching out the REY+Sc. MLA determined that monazite and xenotime in all the coal samples were the REY+Sc-bearing minerals.

Nov 6, 2024

By Q. P. Campbell

The high final total moisture content of fine coal after mining and processing is one of the major reasons that this resource is not extensively used in subsequent power generation, combustion, or other conversion processes. Some coal products, like export coal, may be subjected to a variety of environmental conditions during transport and storage, such as temperature and humidity. To understand the mechanisms by which moisture is attracted and held on and within fine coal particles, further information is needed regarding the processes occurring at the coal surface. In order to determine the correlation between physical coal properties and its moisture adsorption and desorption characteristics, a series of sorption experiments were conducted on various coal samples under climatically controlled conditions. Equilibrium moisture data was collected while changing the temperature and humidity. This data was correlated to coal properties such as particle size, porosity, maceral composition, and mineral content. All the coals that were studied were medium-rank bituminous coals. It was found that the best predictors for moisture adsorption and desorption were the mineral and inertinite contents. Keywords moisture, adsorption, desorption, fine coal, surface properties.

Nov 1, 2013

By S. Rupprecht

Project evaluations of mineral deposits are necessary for mineral rights, owners and investors alike. A feasibility study provides a definitive technical, environmental and commercial base and is the key element leading to a decision to invest or not to invest. For example, the study may be used to justify further exploration and development expenditure or to provide a basis for a major underwriting to raise the required capital. There are three distinct phases in the development of a project and the type of study will differ depending on the quality of information available or the level of decision to be made. This paper looks at these three phases in the development of a mineral project and the type of study required; namely, a scoping study, prefeasibility, and a full feasibility study. Keywords: scoping studies, feasibility studies, mining projects.

Jan 1, 2004

By E. Kuipa, J. N. Lekunze

The selection of an underground mining method stems from a multivariate analysis that considers geomechanical, geological, economic, and operational parameters. Even after identifying the most compatible method, there is no assurance that the mining company will achieve the best performance. The geological complexity of some deposits requires adaptations of methods described in the literature to obtain more selectivity and reduce mining waste. There are some studies on geometry of underground structures, but a methodology that describes an adaptation of a room-and-pillar mining method for ore bodies with down-dip varying from 20° to 25° is novel. The present work aimed to reduce dilution by adapting the traditional room-and-pillar mining method (TRP) to inclined ore boLittle attention has been paid to the rehabilitation of derelict and ownerless mines in South Africa after their lifespan. This paper aims to explore management gaps in legislation that have resulted in the non-rehabilitation of derelict and ownerless mines in South Africa. There is growing evidence that supports the distressing effects of mining on people living around these mines in the North West Province. This paper was motivated by the current socio-economic status quo of old mining towns, the influx of illegal miners (Zama Zamas), severe environmental damages, and the violence associated with derelict mines. Underpinning this research was an ecosystem approach and integrated resources management principles, which formed the foundation for the decision-making process.The researcher used a mixed-method approach and employed convergent techniques. A semi-structured instrument was used to collect data from 200 respondents. The results indicated that there is a dire need for community-based consultative processes, and an absence of clear guidelines for derelict and ownerless mines to pressure mine management to adhere to rehabilitation standards. Moreover, the mining charter is ambiguous regarding policy implementation, budgetary allocation, and duration of the rehabilitation of these mines. The paper concluded that management challenges associated with derelict mines can be reduced if all stakeholders follow the guidelines as outlined in the environmental legislative framework (NEMA) of South Africa while being open to innovations in line with international best practices. It also contributes towards the development of guidelines for the management and implementation of legislation related to derelict and ownerless mines in South Africa from a philosophical, theoretical, and policy perspectivedies. This new method is entitled short-hole room-and-pillar (SHRP). The equations that measure the dilution are defined according to the geometry of stopes and openings. The results comprise comparative analyses of the operational and planned dilutions to measure the performance of the SHRP method. The average operating dilution of the SHRP method was more than five times lower than the planned dilution according to the TRP method. Low operational dilution indicates high selectivity of the method and its potential to reduce underground mining tailings.

Oct 9, 2024

By Mark Coleman

Pnuematic Conveying and Process Injection Technologies have been implimented in the metals markets for the last 40 years and have consideribly improved the productivity and the performance of many processes. There have been many steps forward in handling technology and this paper seeks to consider those now offered by Clyde Materials Handling who as an established customer-driven solutions provider, which has turned its attention to supporting the Metals Market. Clyde seek to utilises its knowledge, expertise and technologies to transform the production processes of its customers, who operate in the ferrous and non-ferrous metals industries. With over 30 years experience in the process improvement industry, Clyde Materials Handling has helped their global customer base transform the way in which they operate their processes, which has enabled them to generate sustainable economic benefit and maintain their positions as leaders in their respective markets. Operators within the metals market have developed and deployed pneumatic conveying and pneumatic injection technologies. These environmentally supportive and sustain-able solutions have been used to transport raw materials within operating facilities, from storage to silo, as well as injecting these materials directly into the heart of production processes. Operators, such as Codelco in Chile, Corus Steel in the UK, and many others across the World have seen pneumatic injection solutions transform their process and costs. To inject a consistent, pulseless and accurate flow of material to a copper concentrate bath smelter, or injecting granular or pulverized coal as a coke substitute in to a blast furnace via the Tuyeres helps to increase the operational capacity, availability and productivity and reduce the cost of the operation. This paper will discuss and highlight the ways in which pneumatic conveying and injection technologies, created by Clyde Materials Handling, and applied in partnership with the customer, have helped to improve the operational performance of the production processes of operators across the non-ferrous metals markets with specific reference to applications in the Lead and Zinc Industries. With examples from Zinc Fuming in Australia, Zinc Calcine and Powder Handling in Korea, Precision coal injection to QSL and TSL Furnaces, and metered distribution of Zinc Calcine to Reactors.

Jan 1, 2008

By R. E. Wilmot

This paper is based on the experiences, over many years, of numerous authors in the South African mining industry and of the hot dip galvanizing process and its application as a corrosion protection system. The paper sets out the extensive development, financial resources and stringent operating requirements of the South African mining industry. After many years of research and operational experiences, hot dip galvanizing and, when necessary, duplex systems, have been found to meet the demanding requirements of this particular industry. The paper sets out the requirements from the standpoint of corrosion criteria and is followed with a case where the corrosion protection properties of hot dip galvanizing are demonstrated. This case history traces the early investigation of the expected corrosive conditions in a new mining operation and concludes with two follow-up visits to the mine in order to examine actual performance of the corrosion protection system after ten years in service.

Jan 1, 2007

By R. Heuberger

South Africa?s Mining Industry operates in an uncertain world. The industry is buffeted by problems regarding retrenchments, unemployment, low productivity, rising costs, volatile exchange rates, commodity prices and government regulations. With these uncertainties facing the decision makers, what does applied technology offer the industry?s management? Modelling languages with risk analysis have been available for decades, but in the past their use has been very expensive, requiring large mainframe computers and lots of computer time. Today, PCs and laptops have incredible power, which makes interactive risk analysis affordable and viable for all enterprises, whether small or large. ?What is risk analysis? ?What is Monte Carlo simulation? ?What kinds of computer models need to be created to use risk analysis and Monte Carlo simulation effectively? This paper addresses these questions and illustrates, with a practical example in the mining industry, how risk analysis techniques can be used to support decisions in the climate of uncertainty.

Jan 1, 2005

By D. Toporov, R. Abraham

"Gasification is a process of thermal conversion of solid carbonaceous materials into a gaseous fuel called syngas. Coal gasification is an efficient technology for a range of systems for producing low-emission electricity and other high-value products such as chemicals, synthetic fuels, etc.The paper presents the High-Temperature Winkler (HTW) gasification process, which is designed to utilize low-rank feedstock such as coals with high ash content, lignite, biomass etc. The process is characterized by a bubbling fluidized bed, where coal devolatilization and partial oxidation and gasification of coal char and volatiles take place, and by a freeboard where partial combustion and gasification of coal char take place.The recent development of the high-pressure HTW process is reviewed. Gasification of low-rank, high-ash coals with respect to gasification temperatures, conversion rates, and syngas quality is also discussed. The main HTW design steps required for an industrial-scale design are presented. Special attention is given to the process modelling, including global thermodynamic calculation as well as detailed CFD-based simulation of a reacting fluidized bed. Three-dimensional numerical results of the HTW process are also provided and discussed."

Jan 1, 2015

By F. Navarro, F. Soto, G. Díaz, E. Jélvez, G. Morales, N. Morales

The increasing availability of tools on the web provides a great opportunity for the research community to boost investigation by accessing computational resources from all over the world. For example, data analytics libraries implemented in languages like Python can be accessed through many open and commercial platforms, therefore providing researchers with a common set of tools or shared datasets. Unfortunately, that is not the case with research in resource assessment and mine planning, where the most standardised tools are commercial applications designed to work on the desktop, but there are not many standard platforms for research. As a result, researchers from different groups often need to start from scratch in order to develop their work, and rarely share implementations details. Similarly, apart from a few publicly available examples, there is a lack of common datasets that are validated and can be used to compare results between different approaches. In this paper, we introduce a platform that provides tools for resource assessment and mine planning, which can be accessed remotely utilising Jupyter Notebooks. In its current version, the platform provides (i) definition and implementation of basic structures for managing samples and models (loading, saving, adding or removing columns, etc.), (ii) definition of experimental and modelled variograms for spatial continuity analysis, (iii) definition of standard interpolation methods in resource evaluation (inverse distance and kriging), (iv) definition of standard problems in mine planning (ultimate pit and precedence constrained production scheduling), (v) generation of 2D standard graphs like grade distribution, conditional means, tonnage-grade, and production plans (vi) a set of datasets, which can be used for case studies, and (vii) a set of notebooks with examples and documentation. In this paper, we introduce the platform and show some examples that illustrate some of the possibilities that it has for research and education in the area of resource assessment and mine planning.

Sep 1, 2021

By J. W. van der Merwe

Technology is advancing at a rate that makes it extremely difficult for the mining Industry to keep pace. Many advances occur within a given piece of technology and often this is missed by the disciplines that could have gained advantage by its implementation. Often this may have been simply an aspect of cost exceeding benefit. However, there are some technologies that potentially have such a far-reaching impact on the mining industry that the benefits simply outweigh the cost. The application of 3D laser scanning in the mining industry has the potential of taking the concept of ?Google maps?? underground. This presents an opportunity where the virtual world of underground can be traversed with relative ease and many aspects of measurements could be obtained without having to visit the working place again, potentially saving countless man-hours and still delivering precision work with significant savings in downtime, stoppages, and exposure to safety incidents. Anglo American Platinum maintains its competitive advantage though the review and application of appropriate technology. This paper describes the 3D laser scanning trial at one of Anglo American Platinum?s new shafts, and goes on to show the benefits encountered through the application and the involvement of the various MRM disciplines.

Jan 1, 2012

By J. Ndlovu, R. Hundermark

Keywords: Anglo Platinum, Polokwane Smelter, pyrometallurgy, metallurgy, platinum, platinum group metals, PGM, base metals, nickel, copper, sulphide smelting, electric furnace, Söderberg, electrode, matte, slag, flash drying, matte casting, crushing, granulation Anglo Platinum?s Polokwane Smelter is situated outside Polokwane, in the Limpopo Province of South Africa. Wet concentrate is received from various concentrators along the Eastern Bushveld Complex, with 60% of the total concentrate received being from UG2 reef and 40% from Merensky reef. The concentrate grade differs from 35 g/t to 110 g/t, and from this a PGM-rich nickel-copper matte is produced. The furnace matte produced is sent to the ACP converter in Rustenburg. The Anglo Platinum concentrators, from which concentrate is received, are Lebowa, Potgietersrus, Amandelbult, and Union, as well as the joint venture Modikwa. The concentrate is fed to two flash dryers that utilise coal-fired, fluidized-bed hot-gas generators to produce the hot gas that will drive off the moisture, leaving a fine bone-dry concentrate to feed to the furnace. The dry concentrate is pneumatically transferred to a storage silo before being transferred to the feed bins situated above the furnace. Lime, if required as a flux, may be transferred separately to the furnace feed bin by a pneumatic system. The concentrate and lime is fed from the feed bins onto airslides and into the furnace. The feed rate is automatically controlled, and the system is set up to optimize the power to feed ratio. The electric furnace is nominally rated at 68 MW and the power is transferred into the furnace using six 1.6 m diameter Söderberg electrodes. Concentrate is melted by energy generated when electric current passes through the electrodes and resistive slag layer. On melting, two immiscible phases form: slag and matte. Furnace matte, containing the bulk of the base metal sulphides and PGMs, is denser than slag and collects naturally at the bottom of the furnace. The furnace is constructed of a combination of refractory brick and water-cooled copper coolers. The furnace sidewalls and hearth are cooled by air drawn through the area by cooling fans. The hearth and matte zone are constructed from refractory bricks. The copper coolers reside only in the slag zone of the furnace along the entire perimeter of the furnace. One staggered row of plate coolers is installed above the waffle coolers along the perimeter of the furnace. Matte is tapped periodically through one of the two matte tapholes into 35-ton refractory-lined ladles, and cast into matte ingots on a casting machine. The cooled matte is discharged onto a concrete slab for cooling and then transferred by front-end loaders to the crushing plant. The matte is first crushed in a jaw crusher and then a Rhodax cone crusher to a size of 2 mm before it is loaded into tankers and sent to the ACP. The low-grade slag is tapped from the furnace through a water-cooled copper insert into a short water-cooled copper ?hot launder? which discharges into a granulation cold launder. The granulated slag slurry flows to three rake classifiers, from which the coarse slag is discharged onto a conveyor to dewatering silos. The dewatered slag from the silos is dumped. The water overflow from the classifiers reports to two thickeners where the water is clarified, and the thickener underflow is returned to the rake classifiers. The smelter is a zero-effluent plant and all the water from the slag silos where the slag is dewatered, as well as the storm water, is pumped to the process water dam from where it is pumped back into the plant for process water use. The off-gas from the furnace is drawn through a forced draught cooler and into a high temperature baghouse. The dust collected in the baghouse is pneumatically transferred into bins above the furnace and is fed via the concentrate airslides. The cleaned off-gas is then vented through the main stack.

Jan 1, 2006

By John W. Harbaugh, Alfredo Prelate

The goal of the study described here is to develop objective. quantitative methods for estimating the outcome probabilities of exploratory oil wells. The study employs the 're-experience' approach, in which historical data are used in a manner which attempts to recreate the past. Our past experience, of course, is the principal guide to the future. To appraise present-day oil prospects, however, we must analyze prospects that have been drilled in terms of how these former prospects were interpreted before they were drilled. An analysis of how they are interpreted after they were drilled is an inadequate guide to the future because our hindsight knowledge is superior to our foresight knowledge. Objective calculation of future outcome probabilities, then, requires that we attempt to treat past information in a manner analogous to that in which we must treat present information in forecasting future outcomes.

Jan 1, 2014