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The words ""Uncertainty"" and ""Risk"" pervade every discussion about mining exploration and investment. Perhaps these terms are subjectively understood by industry professionals, but objective portrayal of these concepts outside the industry is a woefully undeveloped science. This paper addresses current industry understanding and practice regarding quantitative risk assessment techniques, and provides examples of the application of three of these techniques. Probabilistic techniques for financial risk assessment are valuable adjuncts to conventional financial analysis, and address a range of issues not assessable by any other means. The value of whole-of-project probabilistic risk assessment is currently debatable for decision-making purposes, but is seen as important as a mechanism to focus attention to the critical issues that ultimately impact on project success. The dissection of project capital into risk and non-risk components provides valuable insights into risk characteristics not readily quantifiable in any other way. This technique also provides a framework for more objective ""what if?"" scenario evaluation and for the capital structure of resource projects. Finally, mechanisms for the valuation of undeveloped reserves are examined, and guidelines suggested. The importance of reliability in production cost estimates is highlighted and the impact of early development on reserve valuations is discussed. The importance of economics throughout all stages of the evaluation process is fundamental.

Jan 1, 1994

What is a nugget effect? In the early development of geostatistics, the term ?nugget effect? was coined for the apparent discontinuity at the beginning of many semi-variogram graphs. This name was chosen to reflect the large differences found between neighbouring samples in ?nuggety? mineralizations such as Wits gold reefs. Geostatistical theory assumes that the difference between a sampled value and a potential repeat sample at the same location is actually zero. Included in this ?nugget effect? would be true variation between contiguous samples due to the nature of the mineralization, micro-fracturing, nugget or crystal size and so on. Also included in the nugget effect would be any ?random? sampling variation which might occur due to the method in which the sample was taken, the adequacy of the sample size, the assaying process, etc. Arguments were put forward that ?sampling errors? actually exist at zero distance. Some geostatistical schools actually maintain that ?nugget effect? is all sampling error. This would imply that ?perfect? sampling would eliminate the nugget effect entirely. There is now a dichotomy both in the geostatistical world and in the software packages provided for geostatistical analyses. It may seem academic to argue over whether the semi-variogram model should take a value of zero, a value equal to the nugget effect or a partial value at distance zero. However, the decision can have a profound effect on both the estimated resource and in our confidence on that resource. Whereas most geostatistical texts define the semi-variogram model as taking the value of zero at zero distance, others imply that the full nugget effect should be used at zero distance. For example: ?The nugget effect refers to the nonzero intercept of the variogram and is an overall estimate of error caused by measurement inaccuracy and environmental variability occurring at fine enough scales to be unresolved by the sampling interval3. ?Christensen4 has shown that the ?nugget effect?, or non-zero variance at the origin of the sernivariogram, can be reproduced by a measurement error model. ?The nugget effect is considered random noise and may represent short-scale variability, measurement error, sample rate, etc.5. In many training texts and web courses, the definition of the semi-variogram is ambiguous as the formulae for semi-variogram models is not actually specified at zero distance6,7,8.

Jan 1, 2009

By William M. Knuth

This study involved a review of bonding and bond release practices in the states of the Eastern and Midwestern Coal Provinces. Data was collected from regulatory authorities and site visits to document the bonding and release procedures in the states related to achieving successful reclamation. The regulations related to PL95-87 were reviewed. The analysis included suggested modified or new bond release criteria, a review of applicable bond release inspection techniques was prepared, a conceptual graduated bonding system and incentive procedures for reclamation of surface mine sites to alternative or higher land uses. A number of conclusions and recommendations for further research were included. A detailed bibliography and a glossary are included in the report.

Jan 1, 1978

By John J. Sammarco

Abstract- Emergency shutdown systems (ESDs) for mining machinery provide critical functions to safeguard miners. Traditionally, ESDs were realized with simple hardwired circuits; today, there is a growing trend to use programmable electronic technology such as programmable logic controllers (PLCs). This paper describes an analytical study to quantify the safety integrity of a PLC-based ESD and a hardwired ESD. The safety integrity level of each design approach was determined by quantifying the average probability of failure on demand (PFDavg) as described by the recommendations for programmable electronic mining systems published by NIOSH and the IEC 61508 international standard. The safety analyses addressed system architecture, hardware failure probability, proof test interval, diagnostic coverage, and human error probability. The results indicated that a same level of safety, safety integrity level 3 (SIL 3), could be attained when evaluating random hardware failures. Neither approach could attain SIL 3 if manual activation was used. Human error was the limiting factor where, using human reliability analysis, PFDavg < 1 x 10-1; thus, the ESD does not meet SIL 1. It is apparent that automatic verses human¬activation of the ESD is a very important safety consideration. Manually actuated ESDs can only achieve SIL 1 regardless of the technology; therefore, additional independent safety layers of protection are needed to exceed SIL 1. Secondly, it is apparent that the technology choice is very important. The PLC-based ESD was much simpler to design and to validate safety1.

Jan 1, 2007

By Kenneth R. Maser

This report describes a research and development program sponsored by the United State s Bureau of Mines. The purpose of the program was to develop reusable explosion-proof bulkheads for a cross-cut emergency shelter, and to study the implementation of such bulk-heads, and the resulting shelters, as part of an emergency escape plan in a normal coal mining environment. The first part of this report reveals a number of significant conclusions regarding the application of emergency shelters. A study of the cause s of, and the conditions prevailing during a mine emergency indicate s that ideal placement of the shelter s would be midway along developing entries, and at the inter section of butt and main entries. The proper spacing of shelters is based on the travel capability of trapped miners, which is in turn dependent on the height of coal. The life of a given emergency shelter, based on an analysis of the above information, will be anywhere from 6 months to 10 years. Consequently, some shelters are regarded as "temporary?, while others "permanent?.

Jan 1, 1975

By G. L. Oldright

As sponge iron is much like porous, coarse sand, it is a tempting material to use in place of coarse scrap iron as a precipitant of metals, for scrap iron is relatively awkward to handle and exposes only a small amount of surface to pregnant solutions. The results of the experiments described in this bulletin are largely a record of the behavior of sponge iron as a precipitant of lead and copper under laboratory conditions comparable to those that would obtain in a commercial plant were it attempted to secure the maximum contact of surface between solution and precipitant. Physically, the study is largely one of the rates of diffusion of the metal ions in the solutions and through the metallic coatings surrounding the sponge iron particles. The practical objectives are to remove completely the valuable metals from solution and at the same time to obtain a precipitate of good grade. In order to fulfill this latter requirement, the precipitant should be almost completely consumed. These practical ends are usually secured by having the two substances involved pass each other counter-currently-that is, in such a manner as to have the strongest precipitant in contact with the most impoverished solution, and vice versa. EXPERIMENTS WITH LEAD SOLUTIONS In nearly all of the schemes involving the leaching of lead from its ores the metal has been put into solution as the chloride, and fairly concentrated liquors have been employed. The solubility of lead under such conditions is comparatively small at best; the hot pregnant liquors from which the metal is to be precipitated are then made nearly saturated with respect to lead, and only a very small amount of acid is used. Therefore it was not as necessary to learn the behavior of the sponge iron in precipitating lead from solutions of widely differing composition as to learn under what conditions, and with what mechanisms, this precipitation might be carried out most readily.

Jan 1, 1928

By K. P. Wang

The foundation of Japan&apos;s growing industrial and economic strength lies primarily in minerals, power, and technical know-how. Domestic raw material resources cannot supply domestic demand, and imports are indispensable. The Japanese are forced to acquire minerals and metals on a global basis, and their activities already have made an impact on international markets. A by-product of these efforts is the development and expansion of mines in many parts of the world to supply Japanese requirements. Japan now has a surplus capacity to produce finished products for consumption and export. Tradition-ally, domestic deficits in minerals have been met by importing crude materials. Because of the rising demand, however, the time has come when semi finished products as well as crude minerals are required. While the domestic market is the mainstay for Japan&apos;s industrial products, expanding export markets are essential for balancing trade and for providing economic prosperity and higher living standards for the Japanese people. Japan has a long history of mineral and industrial development, and the best in modern practices abroad has been adopted and modified for use under Japanese conditions of smaller enterprises, cheaper labor, and a more closely knit society. Generations of industrious workmen, technicians, and business-men have been trained in industrial occupations. Devastation of war temporarily slowed progress, but at the same time provided the opportunity for reconstruction, modernization, rationalization, and expansion. The Japanese excel in small and medium-sized operations, but they also have mastered large-scale production. Management is aggressive, practical, and strongly imbued with the concepts of effective utilization of resources. Integrated operations, diversification of facilities, intense competition among concerns in the domestic market, and close cooperation in foreign activities characterize Japanese industrial policies. Available capital has been utilized up to the limit for the establishment of mineral and other industrial facilities at home and abroad. Technology, machinery and equipment, and transport services have been exported along with venture capital, and funds have been advanced against future delivery of foreign raw materials. The Government has been restrained in regulatory functions and has provided technical services to private industry. Thus, Japan&apos;s technological foundations are secure, management practices are efficient, and government has stimulated production. The future outlook is bright for the continued rapid growth of mineral and other industries in Japan. Already supreme in Asia in per capita output and living standards, Japan steadily is gaining on the European countries. Steel production has overtaken the United Kingdom and is pressing the level in West Germany. Consumption of fuels and power is expanding at a rapid rate. Construction activities are booming. Japan has built up medium-sized non-ferrous industries. Its ability to produce the exotic metals needed in the nuclear space age is well established. Since Japan makes a great variety of mineral products, her overall posture in mineral extraction and processing is strong. Primarily as a result of intensive efforts in the mineral and other industrial fields, Japan is emerging in world markets as a serious competitor to all industrialized nations.

Jan 1, 1962

By W. K. Cunningham, Edwin A. Gee

"INTRODUCTION This paper is one of many reporting on various aspects of the Bureau of Mines program during World War II directed toward alleviation of shortages in certain critical minerals some of these papers are published as technical papers information circulars, and reports of investigations, of the Bureau of Mines or in technical journals.The investigation described in this report was begun as part of the Bureau, of Mines program to develop acid processes for the extraction of alumina from low-grade bauxites and clays. A domestic shortage of high-grade bauxite suitable for treatment by the Bayer process became acute as a result of World War II; and intensive search for a practical acid process using lower-grade alumina-bearing raw materials was therefore warranted.A survey of the various methods for extraction of alumina from clay has been presented in an early Bureau of Mines publication. 4/ The principal barrier to the successful operation of an acid process has been the difficulty experienced in developing a suitable commercial method for purifying the crude aluminum salts after the clay extraction is complete. Iron salts are the foremost contamination influence. A review of the more prominent procedures that have been proposed for separating iron and aluminum salts can be found in the well-known text on aluminum by Edwards, Frary, and Jeffries. 5/The majority of acid processes to extract alumina from clay employ sulfuric acid as the leaching agent, and the purification is thus reduced to the separation of iron and aluminum, sulfates."

Feb 1, 1948

By Donald W. Gentry

Many firms in the minerals industry are facing enormous capital-equipment requirements for existing operations, planned expansion programs, pollution control systems, etc. Yet, because of existing economic conditions, mining companies find it increasingly difficult to obtain reasonable financing for the acquisition of large, high-cost capital equipment. One way of obtaining the use of mining and other major pieces of high-cost capital equipment is through leasing. The popularity of this approach is evidenced by the growing number of leasing companies, equipment manufacturers, and financial institutions now offering this service to their customers. Indeed, leasing has become a billion-dollar industry, and many commercial banks have developed sizeable portfolios in this area. "Should we buy or lease?" This question eventually comes up whenever a mining company needs additional major capital assets. Unfortunately, many buy-or-lease decisions are made on an emotional basis-rather than on a proper financial evaluation that would yield the…

Jan 9, 1975

By Axel Sahlin

Jan 1, 1898

By J A. H Campbell

AK6 is a Cretaceous aged kimberlite located in the north-east of Botswana, close to Debswana&apos;s Drapa and Letlhakane Mines. It was discovered by Debswana in 1969, but was considered unattractive from an economic perspective. In 2003, Debot Prospecting Pty Ltd (&apos;Debot&apos;) re-assessed the area and with the advent of new prospecting technology, particularly large diameter drilling (&apos;LDD&apos;) and more detailed ground geophysical surveys found AK6 to be of interest. In 2005, the Boteti joint venture was formed between Debot and African Diamonds plc (&apos;AFD&apos;), which covered a number of Prospecting Licenses, including that which contained AK6.

Jan 1, 2010

By Wang Xuguang, Zhang Xiaozhi, Li Guozhong, Xiong Daiyu

The emulsion explosive is a new kind of water-based industrial explosives that was developed at the end of 1960s. In the 1970s, BGRIMM invented EL-series emulsion explosive that created a new era of water-based industrial explosives technology and products in China. From single type to varieties, the perfect BGRIMM emulsion explosives technology has been formed, which consists of 9 series, over 30 types explosives and related production equipments and processes such as cap-sensitive rock emulsion explosive, opencast emulsion explosive, coal permitted emulsion explosives, low-temperature-resistant emulsion explosive, high-temperature-resistant emulsion explosive, high power emulsion explosive, bulk emulsion explosive for loading truck and powder emulsion explosive. From the early 1990s, BGRIMM successfully developed opencast emulsion explosives and the computer controlled continuous production line of small-diameter cap-sensitive emulsion explosive which raised emulsion explosive production technology of our country to a new lever. With the successful development of powder emulsion explosive and related computer controlled continuous production line, on-site mixed emulsion explosive and loading truck as well, the category of industrial explosives is getting more complete and reasonable. This paper pres ents the history, achievement and development of BGRIMM emulsion explosive technology, also forecasts the future of linked technology.

Jan 1, 2003

By C. K. Leith

GENERAL GEOLOGY OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR IRON-BEARING AND COPPER-BEARING SERIES. THE geology of the Lake Superior region is of general interest, both from an economic and a scientific standpoint. The presence of large and rich iron- and copper-deposits has made a knowledge of the geology of the region necessary for purposes of exploitation and exploration. The ores of the region are contained in rocks of pre-Cambrian age, &apos;pith for most of the country up to recent years have usually been referred to as « crystalline schists " or " crystalline complex;" and regarded principally as metamorphosed basement-unit upon which the sedimentary rocks, beginning with the Paleozoic, were laid down. In the Lake Superior re¬gion this pre-Cambrian complex presents an unusual variety of rocks with determinable relations. It has been possible, with the large expenditures which-the magnitude of the iron-mining industry warrants, to work out their stratigraphy to a larger extent than has been possible in almost any other area of pre-Cambrian rocks. The real complexity of Lake Superior geology, the confusion of names and the multiplicity of reports covering small parts of the region, are such that interested persons, other than. geologists directly engaged in the work, may well hesitate to attempt to comprehend the geology of the region as a whole. The following paper is a somewhat elementary outline of the geology of the Lake Superior region with special reference to new developments not yet covered in published reports. Geological information concerning the region has been gath¬ered by mining companies, and by the geological surveys of Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ontario, Canada, and the United States.. Perhaps in no other part of the country have the mining men themselves spent such large sums in purely geological work. This has made possible the publication of ,reports and maps by the State and Government surveys in much less time and at far less cost than would have been otherwise possible. The. U. S. Geological Survey is the only organization which has covered all of the region on the United &apos;States side of the boundary, and as its reports include the in¬formation gathered by the mining companies and State organi

Mar 1, 1905

By C. E. Julihn, Lowell B. Moon

"INTRODUCTION To increase the supply of ore needed to produce steel the Bureau of Mines has explored 187 mineral deposits containing chromium, iron, manganese, cobalt, nickel, fluorspar, tungsten, vanadium, or coal during the fiscal years. 1940-44, the deposits thus explored were selected from several thousand that were first examined to appraise their possibilities. The objective of the exploration was to determine the tonnage and grade of ores upon which mining, operations might be based, and the metallurgical processing that was most suitable for their utilization.Most of these deposits were sub-marginal by pre-war standards; hence there had been no incentive for their exploration, yet many such deposits were known to exist that probably contained ore sufficient in grade and amount to be utilized as war reserves.Some of the Bureau's exploration projects have disclosed substantial or even very large amounts of ore, much of which is fairly high in grade. In a few of them bodies of high-grade ore have been found, though in others the tonnage has proved to be too small or too low-grade for utilization."

Mar 1, 1945

By C. J. Martin, M. P. Hay

"A methodology was developed in the mid-1980’s to predict plant performance from standard laboratory flotation tests. The technique is based on a simple, empirical kinetics model, and is tailored for use by the practical metallurgist.To date the performance of more than 20 flotation plants has been predicted, including copper, lead, zinc, phosphate, pyrite, graphite, cassiterite, platinum, nickel and various slags. The method has successfully been used to predict and size four flotation plants directly from bench-scale laboratory flotation testwork. All have since been commissioned, and have performed as predicted.The technique has now received broad acceptance within the South African mining industry, for example in the last year alone it has been used to drive flowsheet development for at least seven new plants. It is also being used to assist in the optimisation of existing operating plants.The methodology is described in this paper and verification of the methodology is presented using case studies of porphyry, polymetallic and PGM operations.INTRODUCTIONThere is considerable interest these days in the use of modelling to simulate flotation circuits, for process design and plant optimisation purposes. Although these models are proving to be useful tools for plant design and optimisation, their complexity can make them cumbersome – expensive to use and difficult for metallurgists to visualise and mentally absorb, without a background in each specific technique. In “SUPASIM” no attempt is made to measure flotation fundamentals, rather to use empirical relationships between laboratory flotation kinetics and plant performance – relationships that hold up well to validation exercises as will be demonstrated later in this paper. Although not designed to be as comprehensive as other models, “SUPASIM” is easily understood by the operating metallurgist and can be quickly and easily applied."

Jan 1, 2004

By Robert H. Peters

The objective of the project descibed in this report was to design and field test a model health and safety program at a coal mining company and a gold mining company. The model program was implemented primarily by providing training on loss control, accident investigation, and the operation of mobile equipment; and by providing technical assistance to help solve health and safety problems. Data were obtained from company records on occupational injuries, illnesses, accidents, and "near misses"; and through direct observation of employees performing a large number of randomly selected jobs. At the coal mine, employees were observed five times over a 15-month period. At the gold mine, employees were observed six times over a 16-month period. During the study, the percentage of sampled jobs containing one or more safety deficiencies decreased from 74.3 pct to 36.6 pct at the coal mine and from 86.4 pct to 19.1 pct at the gold mine. Work on this project was performed by Woodward Associates, Inc., under a Bureau of Mines contract.

Jan 1, 1986

"Horizontal grinding mills have been used in the mining industry for more than a century, and due to their operational and maintenance simplicity they remain a widely used technology for various stages of comminution. The relative ‘efficiency’ of horizontal grinding mills compared to other comminution equipment is often debated, and efforts to improve the energy efficiency of these mills is an on-going area of attention for process engineers.The discharge arrangement design affects the material transport characteristics within a horizontal grinding mill. Material transport plays a significant role on efficiency of horizontal grinding mills. The magnitude of benefits that can be achieved with efficient material transport in AG/SAG mills has been demonstrated in a Greenfield milling operation at Mirabela Mineração’s SantaRita Nickel operation in Brazil. This grinding circuit was commissioned in October 2009, which was designed as a typical SABC circuit to grind 4.6 mtpa (575tph) to produce a P80 of 125um with 10-12% ball charge in SAG mill. The nameplate design capacity has been achieved in few days in ABC circuit without grinding media in SAG mill, and has been operating in ABC mode. The through has gradually increased to an average of 800 tph and recently 7% ball charge has been introduced to increase the throughput to +900tph.This paper investigates improved material transport using Outotec’s TPL™ (Turbo Pulp Lifter) technology and the opportunities this technology presents when designing horizontal grinding mills. Operational data, with particular reference to energy and throughput optimization, is presented."

Jan 1, 2013

By N. H. Darton

This report presents the results of an investigation begun by the Government in the summer of 1907, the investigation being started under the immediate supervision of Dr. J. A. Holmes and continued under him as director after it was transferred to the Bureau of Mines in 1910, the field studies being completed in the spring of 1912. The purpose of the investigation was to obtain information on the origin of the inflammable gases in coal and the conditions under which they occur. It was especially intended to ascertain whether there was any relation between the occurrence of gas and the structural or other geologic features of the coal beds. To this end many months were spent in mines and much time was devoted to the examination of mine maps, bore-hole records, and other data made available by the kindness of various coal companies. Two fields of work were selected-one in the northern anthracite basin of Pennsylvania, where the beds are considerably flexed, and the other in the southern part of the bituminous coal field of Illinois, where the beds lie nearly horizontal. In order to take advantage of results of previous investigations of the same general subject, an extended examination was made of reports of various investigators in Europe and America. A digest of the information obtained from these publications is included in the first part of this report, which constitutes an introduction to the discussion of the conditions governing the occurrence of inflammable gas in coal beds.

Jan 1, 1915

By Robert B. Parsons

"The tax reform process marches on. The December 16, 1987 measures tabled by Finance Minister Michael Wilson represent one more step toward the objective of total reform of Canada&apos;s income and sales taxes. While the income tax changes are taking shape, much work still needs to be done on the sales tax side of the coin.IntroductionOn December 16, 1987 Finance Minister Michael Wilson tabled measures to implement the changes to Canada&apos;s income tax system that were proposed in the June 18, 1987 White Paper on Tax Reform. The measures were set out in a Notice of Ways and Means Motion; draft legislation relating to preferred shares, research and development expenditures; and draft regulations regarding capital cost allowance, certified films, flow-through shares, and the resource sector. The reaction of the government to the recommendations made by the Finance and Economic Affairs Committee Report on Tax Reform (the Blenkarn Committee), the Report of the Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce and through consultations with interested groups and organizations, business, labour and individual Canadians is set out in a booklet of supplementary information.The basic features of the reformed income tax system set out in the White Paper remain. However, a number of significant changes have been incorporated in the Notice of Ways and Means Motion and other material. The following comments address those area s where changes have been made to the original White Paper proposals."

Jan 1, 1988

By Yi-Shen Li

This report has been prepared by Lockheed Missiles & Space Company, Inc. (LMSC), under United States Bureau of Mines Contract No. H0220040 dated 21 June 1972 for the design, development, fabrication, and certification of the One-Hour Self-Rescue Breathing Apparatus (PBA). The PBA is a self-contained, oxygen-generating, CO2-removing closed-loop breathing apparatus that provides a minimum of 1 hour of breathable atmosphere during escape from a mine with a contaminated or oxygen-deficient atmosphere. This Cost-Plus-Fixed-Fee (CPFF) contract has been successfully completed in a three-phase program. The Phase I tasks included the design, development, and fabrication of prototype units developed at LMSC in accordance with the requirement of the Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) Title 30, Chapter 1, Subchapter B, Part 11 (Appendix A), and was submitted to the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) for joint NIOSH and Bureau of Mines certification testing.

Jan 1, 1974