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By W. M. Kidd, P. J. Duport

INTRODUCTION The enquiry of the Royal Commission on Health and Safety of Workers in Mines of 1976, known as the Ham Commission after its chairman, Dr. J. Ham , now president of the University of Toronto, was one of the activities surrounding the upturn in the fortunes of the Canadian uranium industry and its markets in the mid-seventies. Although the regulation and licensing of Canada's ten major mine/mill facilities employing six thousand or more uranium mines is a federal concern under the Atomic Energy Control Act, this Commission, which paid particular attention to health and safety in uranium mines, was appointed by the Province of Ontario. Further provincial enquiries in British Columbia, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland have been aimed at quantifying, reducing or eliminating the environmental and health impact of uranium production. This work has created a mosaic of provincial regulation in what is essentially a field of federal jurisdiction. Various organizations of the federal government related to its regulatory function in the uranium industry are outlined in Figure 1 showing the matrices of regulatory, advisory and research activities associated with the exploitation of Canadian uranium resources. A more detailed examination [ ] of the governmental (federal and provincial) activities, commissions, etc., in the Canadian uranium industry indicates a definite parallelism of effort, if not of scale between the two levels of government in the execution of their roles in occupational and environmental health and safety and is presented here to explain the complex stage onto which the Canadian Institute for Radiation Safety has just entered. The development of the Institute and its precursors together with current and planned research activities are described. BACKGROUND Traditionally and constitutionally, natural resource exploitation and its regulation is under provincial jurisdiction; however, the uranium industry has been under federal control since the Second World War when security measures necessitated the creation of the Atomic Energy Control Board (AECB). Health and safety aspects, in terms of inspection, compliance and environmental monitoring are performed on behalf of the AECB by provincial labour inspectors (Saskatchewan and Ontario) and Ministries of Environment. Non-radiation health and safety matters are also enforced under the federal Canada Labour Code by provincial inspectors. In support of licensing and standard-setting functions, major research programs have been initiated and expanded at both the AECB and the Canada Centre for Mineral and Energy Technology (CANMET), formerly the Mines Branch of the Federal Department of Energy, Mines and Resources). CANMET established a Mining Research Laboratory at Elliot Lake, Ontario in 1965 to conduct research and development aimed at improving production capability, providing information on the security of uranium supply and investigating the hazards of mining and their implications for the health and safety of the miners. The provincial route in assessing the costs and benefits of uranium production has attempted to be far more conclusive in nature. While some on-going studies are funded, periodic inquiries by Royal Commission have become the accepted practice. Six such inquiries have been conducted in four provinces and widely differing policies have resulted from their findings and recommendations. For example, while the government of British Columbia in the Fall of 1980 declared a seven-year moratorium on(2) uranium mining and exploration in the province, the province of Ontario's crown utility "Ontario Hydro" financed the rehabilitation of a mine/mill complex at Elliot Lake. The latter instance is not surprising considering that the final report of Ontario's "Royal Commission on Electric Power Planning",(3) concluded that nuclear energy has a continuing role to play in the expansion of Ontario Hydro.

Jan 1, 1981

By J. W. Leonard

Introduction Gravity-based coal/mineral preparation plants must be operated to yield products of a quality satisfactory to existing markets. However, because of historic control problems, recovery is frequently sacrificed to achieve quality, resulting in losses of valuable product. Plant control has ranged from intuitive in-plant spot quality judgments made by various operators to gross methods involving such devices as density gauges, floats, grabsample on-the-spot sink/float tests, etc. Millions of tons of quality coal/minerals are lost to refuse each year, because of the historic lack of a continuous and dependable control system. The result is serious economic, as well as environmental, losses. While the economic losses are obvious, the less obvious environmental ones, in the case of coal, result from the misplacement of more ignitable quality fuel to refuse banks. Until recently, a control system capable of supplying a market-grade coal/mineral product, while continuously minimizing product losses to refuse, has been technologically unavailable. Coal/Mineral Washing Tracer System Performance Monitor (CMWTSPM) The first Coal/Mineral Washing Tracer System Performance Monitor (CMWTSPM) originated in the late 1970s as an innovative idea and ultimately resulted in Leonard Patent No. 4,345,994 issued on August 24, 1982. In a classic example of successful university basic research, the patent was followed by two US Department of Energy (DOE) merit awards for fundamental optimization research at the University of Kentucky, a number of publications, a successful applied research program (underwritten by SENTREX at Irvine, CA) and field tests at the Rochester and Pittsburgh Coal Company Keystone Mine near Indiana, PA. The system is now operational and is marketed by SENTREX as the SENTREX Performance Monitor. A diagram of the system is shown in Fig. 1. This system relies on metal detection as the basic tracing medium. Since it is capable of tracing particles as fine as 0.19-in., the system is ideal for coarse coal/ mineral cleaning processes. Basically, the CMWTSPM records the distribution of synthetic coal/mineral particles, of known size and specific gravity, between product and refuse output streams of coal/mineral washing, gravity-concentrating processes. For any given particle size, surface area and shape are constant. The particles are [ ] designed to find their way into the center of their respective inprocess specific gravity/size streamlines. The system will yield a complete partition curve to show the percentage of misplacement for any selected size/specific-gravity particle fraction, thereby providing a point-to-point insight into process failure. When used to evaluate operational processes, this full partition curve is far more diagnostic than the simplifying, derivative, single index number known as the Ep value. The Ep value is commonly used for convenience to represent symmetrical partition curves, but, if the actual partition curve is non-symmetrical, use of the Ep value can result in serious diagnostic error. While the Ep is useful in design and for rapid performance evaluation and process adjustment, the full partition curve is by far the more diagnostic. It will provide insight into the behavior of particulate flow, through non-symmetry, as a means to highlight potential systemic failures. Performance of the process is measured and improved by determining the extent of particle misplacement and by making timely adjustments to the unit to reduce the misplacement. Used in this manner, the CMWTSPM is not only a long needed processing control monitor, but it is also a very powerful diagnostic tool which, in the hands of skilled operators, has

Jan 1, 1993

By Mark L. Blanford, Roger M. Zimmerman

INTRODUCTION Volcanic tuffs on and adjacent to the Nevada Test Site (NTS) are being considered by the Department of Energy (DOE) for the possible geo- logic disposal of high-level radioactive wastes. The Nevada Nuclear Waste Storage Investigations (NNWSI) project was established in 1977 to evaluate such disposal. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), one of the participants in the NNWSI project, has as one of its responsibilities the development of a rock mechanics program for the Nevada site. SNL conducted three small-diameter heater experiments in welded and nonwelded tuffs in G-Tunnel on the NTS, to investigate the thermal (heat transfer) and hydrothermal (thermal- induced water migration) behavior as part of the rock mechanics program. These two aspects were investigated to increase knowledge about the behavior of tuff so that predictive capabilities are available for use by repository designers, waste-package designers, and performance analysts. Also, knowledge of the behavior of the tuff is invaluable for planning and designing future in situ experiments at Yucca Mountain, the candidate site for the repository. The evaluations of these three experiments is the subject of this paper. Designers, analysts, and experimenters are seeking a better understanding of the behavior of tuffs under the influence of thermal loads expected from radioactive-waste storage, because of two physical features peculiar to tuffs. First, tuffs are inherently porous because of the manner in which they are deposited (Smith, 1960). Tuffs utilized in G-Tunnel testing have porosities ranging from 15 to 46%, which cover the ranges of expected porosities in the target horizon at Yucca Mountain. It has been established that the G-Tunnel tuffs have similar bulk, thermal, and mechanical material properties to those at Yucca Mountain (Zimmerman et al., 1984), thus, G-Tunnel testing can be used to evaluate the effects of porosity on the thermal and mechanical behavior. The second feature is that tuffs above the water table contain pore water that influences the thermal properties of the rock; displacement of the water must be accounted for in repository designs and analyses. For example, G-Tunnel tuffs, located some 600 m above the static water level, have saturations in excess of 60%. Similar percentages are expected at the target horizon in Yucca Mountain (Zimmerman et al., 1984). The presence of and the removal of the pore water affects the thermal behavior of the tuffs, and these three experiments were designed first to determine the phenomenological behavior and then assess influences on predictive capabilities. The focus in this paper is to present the results and evaluations of the experiments as they apply to improving predictive capabilities. The thermal aspects are emphasized by comparing the measured temperatures (in and around heater emplacement holes) with calculations of predicted temperatures using numerical models, so that the effects of significant parameters can be evaluated and integrated into future predictive models. Observation of the hydrothermal aspects is needed to assess the effects of loss of pore water and subsequent migrations on the temperature fields during the heating, and also to define the expected environment in the vicinity of the outer metallic surface around the waste. The metallic boundary can be either the outer shell of the waste package system, which is the main engineered barrier for waste containment, or the borehole liner. A final decision has not been made as yet about the necessity for lining boreholes; thus, the emphasis is on predicting the characteristics of the environment around the outer metallic surface. Two aspects that limit the scope of this paper are (1) the experiments were performed at a smaller than canister scale for the purpose of

Jan 1, 1986

By David L. Rife

Introduction Our society is currently experiencing a change in civil philosophy toward US industrialization. We have become increasingly bent on the pursuit of a nirvanic state of zero risk. The money supply has become inversely proportional to its sources. And most mining companies, traditionally conservative, have become increasingly risk conscious. Rising taxes, high inflation, and decades of a steadily decreasing gross national product (GNP) - coincident with moral decay and disarmament - have eroded America's economic health. Psychology of US metal markets has shifted across the economic spectrum to disillusionment and discouragement. The sagging national economy, expanding governmental debt, and a backward mineral policy in concert with worldwide unrest and turmoil have caused great volatility in the metal markets. Congressional inaccessibility of US resources has contributed to its loss in strategic leadership and dependency on foreign suppliers and the common market. Large scale mining activities are now on the decline. And there is an overall slump in mineral exploration in this country. America now faces the sobering reality of almost total importation of 13 key mineral commodities and total dependence on foreign sources for five of them. There is a growing dependency on 21 of the 34 minerals vital to the US economy. And virtually everything needed can be imported directly from third world countries. Almost 85% of the free world's supply or production of vanadium, chromium, platinoids, manganese, and titanium - an essential to the aerospace industry - comes from South Africa. That country now plays a forefront position in supplying the West with minerals. The Soviets have become increasingly aware of this situation. They have made key moves in procuring for their own purposes major raw materials markets, particularly in South Africa. This is obviously threatening to the US' direction and brings about vulnerability to shortages and cutoffs. In spite of these developments and the overall change in the mining industry, there is good opportunity for growth ahead. The way has been paved for the smaller mining companies, particularly the more bullish of these. Smaller mining organizations possess a tight management and strong sense of direction. They can easily adapt to and cope with change. "Windows" that exist in the industry directly depend on a number of factors. These include the busi¬ness climate, market research and planning, management and human resources, applied appropriate technology, favorable hunting ground, and entrepreneurship. Mining as business Mining (and exploration) as a business is by its very nature highly speculative. It involves greater risk for a longer period of time than most other businesses. The entire mineral estate in the US continues to shrink. This is primarily because of various legislated wilderness measures. Consequently, the probability of finding an economic ore deposit in the US has decayed to less than 1%. Although the risk is high, the stakes far outweigh the gamble and are larger than most other businesses can offer. Mining properties, as investments or business opportunities, can provide effective hedges against long-term inflation because the real price for selected commodities, such as gold, may sometimes rise faster than inflation. Recessionary periods seem to provide the best climate for entering the mineral business or for a particular mining organization to expand its activities. Looking ahead and seizing opportunities during a depressed market will pay off. Property payments and royalties are likely to be lower. And the potential for an upward shift in prices for a given commodity is very positive. The decision to invest in a prom-

Jan 9, 1985

By W. A. Crosby, A. Bauer

The recent increase in size of open-pit mining operations has resulted in major improvements in efficiency that are beneficial to the mining industry. Higher bench heights, larger diameter blast-holes, and more powerful explosives have played an important part in reducing mining costs. These measures have, however, resulted in increased energy concentrations in the blast area, which can result in severe backbreak problems for final pit walls. If backbreak is not controlled, a decrease in the overall pit slope angle will ultimately be necessary, and consequences, such as decreased recoverable ore reserves and increased waste-to-ore ratios, will result. Greater amounts of loose face rock will be produced, and planned safety berms will be less effective or nonexistent. Hazardous working conditions can also result. Remedial measures, such as scaling large areas and using wire mesh or other artificial support, are very expensive and difficult to implement. There must be a trade-off between the money saved by using larger blasts, and the time spent to maintain pit wall quality. The best approach is to control blasting effects so the inherent strength of pit walls is not destroyed. Presplit and trim blasting are two control blasting techniques used to accomplish this. Both techniques are designed to create a low explosive energy concentration per unit of wall area at the perimeter of the pit. Energy concentration of the main production blast must also be controlled to avoid damaging the final pit wall. A low-energy concentration at the final wall can be obtained by decoupling charges, decking charges, using less powerful explosives, decreasing blasthole diameters, and changing the burden and spacing. Rock properties-fragmentation and the final state of the pit wall-influence the success of a blast. The most important properties to consider are: in situ rock strength, and the nature, frequency, and orientation of structural features. Since these variables cannot be controlled, they must be evaluated by suitable field tests, and then a control blast can be designed using controllable variables, such as spacing, burden, and hole diameter, so the blast will be successful for appropriate rock conditions. One main thrust of this article is to show how control blasts can be successfully designed for larger hole sizes, up to 381-mm-diam. While efforts to produce a good control blast in shovel/truck pits have been ongoing for some time, recent use of a modified presplit technique in dragline operations has helped reduce water problems, improve safety, and increase dragline productivity in a number of surface coal mines. This article presents examples on designing and using presplit and trim blasting for large hole operations in both shovel/truck and dragline mines. Presplit Blasting As introduction to presplit blasting, Fig. 1 illustrates a typical presplit blast layout using 102 mm-diam presplit holes for 381¬mm-diam production holes. For this type of blast, presplit holes would normally be drilled first, ahead of main production holes. The choice can then be made between loading and firing the presplit line or infilling the main blast. In the latter case, the presplit line would be fired instantaneously 100-150 milliseconds before the main blast. As shown in the figure, the presplit line is formed ahead of the main

Jan 2, 1982

By L. Yuan, J. H. Rowland III

"In 1995 and 2003, the Mine Safety Health Administration (MSHA) conducted surveys to determine the number of atmospheric monitoring systems (AMS) being used in underground coal mines in the United States. The survey reports showed data for the different AMS manufacturers, the different types of equipment monitored, and the different type of gas sensors and their locations. Since the last survey in 2003, MSHA has changed the regulation requirements for early fire detection along the belt haulage entries. As of December 31, 2009, point-type heat sensors were prohibited for use for an early fire detection system; instead carbon monoxide (CO) sensors are now required. This report will examine the number of AMS currently used in underground mines in the United States to see if there is a change in their use. The locations and parameters monitored by AMS are also discussed. INTRODUCTION The last survey conducted by the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) on atmospheric monitoring systems (AMS) used in underground coal mines in the United States (US) was in 2003 [1]. The survey report states that since 1995 there had been a steady increase in the use of AMS in underground coal mines as the technology of CO sensors was improved by manufacturers. AMS had become more reliable and some CO sensors could be purchased with the capability to discriminate between the CO produced from a fire versus CO produced from diesel equipment. This increase in reliability had reduced the number of false alarms and the response time. The faster response time to a developing fire allowed for the miners to take the necessary action to put out the fire or exit the mine. It should also be noted that at the time of last MSHA survey, some mines still used point-type heat sensors to detect the presence of a fire on conveyor belts. This detection method works by measuring the temperature of the air around the sensor. As a fire starts to develop, smoke and hot gases are produced from the combustion process, and the air is heated up. Once the air and gases reach a designated temperature detected by the point-type heat sensor, a fire alarm signal is generated. Studies have shown that the response times for detecting the presence of a fire using CO sensors are much shorter than using point-type heat sensors [2]. Finally, since the last MSHA survey, regulations have changed on the type of automatic fire detection systems permitted to be used in conveyor belt entries. As of December 31, 2009, point-type heat sensors are not permitted to be used for fire detection in underground coal mines in the US; instead CO sensors are required as a replacement (30 CFR 75.1103-4). This study will examine how the changing of the above regulations has impacted the use of CO sensors in underground coal mines in the US compared to their use based on the last MSHA survey. Importantly, in the previous MSHA survey, the data was recorded for producing and non-producing coal mines. In this study, only the data from the producing coal mines was recorded. Data was collected from a total of 235 coal mines for this study with the help of the MSHA district offices."

Jan 1, 2017

By Peter Joralemon

Introduction The Sierra Nevada Foothill Gold Belt in California extends from Mariposa north for more than 420 km (200 miles). It includes the Grass Valley and Alleghany districts in the zone of Northern Mines and the famous Mother Lode to the south. The gold belt has produced more than 3.1 kt (100 million oz) of gold since its discovery in 1848. This remarkable production, at the present gold price, would be valued at more than $40 billion. The Law of Gambler's Ruin supposes that averages are based on systematic rather than random variations. It emphasizes the vast differences between finite and infinite probability. By applying this Law to this figure, it can be seen that the belt has produced an average of 15.5 t (500,000 oz) of gold per running mile. Many geologists believe, with some justification, that less than half the gold in this belt has been mined. Sixty per cent of the past production has come from lode deposits, the balance from Tertiary and Recent placer gravels. This paper will concern itself with the developing lode mines along the Sierra Nevada Foothill Gold Belt. As a further and final note regarding placer mining along this belt, Mark Twain suggested that placer miners, having lost their senses, had contributed liberally to the population of California's insane asylums. After a 40-year lull with little or no gold production, the lode mines of this famous belt are showing signs of renewed activity. Two open pit mines, the Sonora (Jamestown) and Carson Hill, are now in operation at substantial scales. Two others, the Goldenbell (Pine Tree-Josephine) and the Royal-Mountain King, are being readied for production on equally impressive scales. All are in the southern part of the Mother Lode. Exploration farther north, at Sutter Creek, Drytown, and Georgetown, is showing encouraging results in developing deeper lode deposits. This new activity has been sponsored to a large extent by junior Canadian mining and exploration companies. Most of the established American mining companies have looked the other way, not participating in this important development. One major reason for domestic disinterest in this opportunity is there is little chance for heap leachable open pit ore in this belt, excluding Carson Hill. And heap leaching has become fashionable with American mining companies today. Also, this great old gold belt must have been worked out, for why else is there so little activity here - Catch 22 logic. Another reason is that if a new deposit of size and grade similar to the mines in the past was found, high costs would preclude a profitable operation. And, finally, California environmentalists would not permit mining, even if a rich deposit were found. These may all be pefectly valid reasons not to explore for gold along this belt. But a look at the history of gold mining in California may suggest that the future for exploration and development of the gold resources in the Sierra Nevada Foothills can be greater than the past. It was during the Depression of the 1930s that this gold belt saw its maximum activity, with more than 3000 mines in operation. Some were father and son operations producing only a few tons of ore a day. Other mines employed hundreds of miners to hoist more than 900 t/d (1000 stpd). Some ores were of marginal grade. Others, like the Sixteen to

Jan 7, 1987

By William Tattersall

On behalf of my agency, the Mine Safety and Health Administration, I would like to add my appreciation that all of you could be here today. Previous dust symposia over the years have proved the value of close cooperation among universities, government agencies, and professional societies in advancing knowledge of dust research and development in the interest of miners and the industry. I'll just comment briefly on MSHA's part of the overall effort by all parties to control miners' exposure to respirable coal dust and other airborne dusts. As you know, our agency's congressional mandate is to do what is necessary to assure that miners will have safe and healthful workplaces. In the area of coal mine health, this has meant joining with the mining community in a continuous campaign to keep respirable dust and quartz levels below applicable standards to prevent or reduce disabling coal workers' pneumoconiosis and silicosis arising from excessive exposure to respirable quartz. Currently, our agency is processing about 120,000 coal dust samples taken by MSHA and company people during the year and about 8,000 samples taken from metal and nonmetal mining operations. Our dust program, like other MSHA programs, has benefited from increased computerization of records. The attack on CWP has had the highest priority of government and industry. The goal has been to sharply reduce social costs of suffering victims and their families as well as the associated future payments under the black lung benefits program. During the 1989 fiscal year, about 104,000 former miners received about one and a half billion dollars in benefits. Since the program began, nearly 25 billion dollars have been paid out. Much progress has been made in lowering dust levels in coal mines since the standard of two milligrams per meter of air was established in 1972. Before that time, there was a 4-to-10-percent probability of a miner developing coal workers' pneumoconiosis at typical pre-1972 exposure levels. However, under the maximum respirable dust levels allowed today, this probability has been reduced to about 1 percent. Since average dust levels are lower today, we can expect fewer miners to develop CWP in the future. Out goal continues to be elimination of both coal workers' pneumoconiosis and silicosis in both coal and nonmetal mining. In 1985, MSHA revised its coal mine quartz policy to allow mine operators to submit dust samples used in setting the quartz standard. Previously, only single MSHA samples were used. Even though less than half of the mine operators have taken advantage of this change, it has provided a larger population of samples for analysis then before. Also the policy allows operations that are on a reduced quartz standard to have the standard reviewed every six months. In underground coal mining, the job of roof bolter typically has higher than normal exposures to quartz. About 45 percent of respirable dust samples from roof bolting operations contain more than 5 percent quartz and therefore are put on a reduced quartz standard. One objective of the policy revision was to improve miners' health by follow-up monitoring, and this is being done with roof bolting jobs. MSHA studies of surface coal mining operations have provided data showing that bulldozer operators and highwall rotary drill operators often have high exposure to quartz dust, and our agency is directing enforcement efforts to reducing this hazard. One of the most important responsibilities of MSHA's metal and nonmetal mine health division is the respirable dust sampling program. In the last few years, nearly 3 out of 10 samples have

Jan 1, 1991

By Bruce D. McCellan

INTRODUCTION The gathering arm loader was patented by Joseph Joy in 1916. This unique machine motion became the standard of the industry and is used on underground loaders and continuous miners throughout the world. Figs. 1 and 2 show two types of gathering arm loaders. The gathering arm loader is a crawler-mounted ma¬chine primarily used for loading coal in a conventional mining system. Other uses also have been found for this machine in noncoal mines and other industries. MECHANICAL ASSEMBLIES The front or loading end of the machine, commonly called the head, consists of a tapered structural frame, hinged at the rear to the chassis and riding the ground at the front. Two bevel-gear cases are mounted in the head. They are connected by a timing shaft, which also acts as a conveyor drive shaft on most models. An eccentric disk attached to each gear case drives the gathering arms. The rear of the arms are attached to a swivel assembly. The motion derived from this arrange¬ment gathers loose material from the ground directly in front of the machine and loads it into the conveyor. Power for this drive is provided by two electric motors mounted under the gathering head. A speed reducer attached to each motor provides a gathering arm speed of approximately 5.2 rad/s (50 rpm). A torque limiting clutch is provided on each reducer to guard the system against sudden impact loading and continual overloading of the motors. The conveyor consists of an open box section through which a universal-type chain carries the ma¬terial to the rear of the machine, where it is discharged into the haulage vehicle. The chain is driven by a sprocket located on the timing shaft between the two gathering-head bevel-gear cases. On some large loader designs, primarily for noncoal applications, the chain is driven by a separate gear motor at the discharge end of the conveyor. However, the system driven by the timing shaft is used most widely. The conveyor frame is hinged just to the rear of the gathering head. It can be raised or lowered by hydraulic cylinders to the desired discharge height. The conveyor frame also is designed to pivot 0.79 rad (45°) either side of the center, just to the rear of the chassis. This feature increases the maneuverability of the ma¬chine and makes it possible to discharge material into the haulage system when in tight quarters such as when turning a crosscut. This function also is controlled by a hydraulic cylinder. The chassis of the loader consists of two crawler frames and cross members, holding the frames in position. The frames are either welded or cast as¬semblies. Replaceable wear runners are provided on the frames to take the wear generated by the crawler chain. An adjustable take-up idler keeps the crawler chain in proper adjustment for maximum life. The drive system for the crawler chains varies with the manufacturer, but it generally is one of two basic designs. One system provides a traction motor for each side of the machine, coupled to a speed reducer. A spur and bevel-gear train transfers power to the sprocket, which drives the crawler chain. Directional control is achieved by disk-type clutches. The other system also uses a motor for each crawler, coupled to a speed reducer. A roller chain drives the sprocket, which in

Jan 1, 1982

By J. R. Sturgul

Thompson and Adler (1988) present a new simulator for use in designing conveyor belt systems for underground mines. Their model uses a large Fortran program to do a Monte Carlo simulation. Their approach is similar to that done by other researchers, such as Stanford (1965) and Newhart (1977). All Fortran based simulation models use an imaginary clock that is advanced a time increment. At each advance of time increment the program has to determine what is to take place in the system. Since many things can take place at different places in the system, this approach requires that a large amount of logic is needed at each step of the program. This, then, necessitates a great amount of jumping between different portions of the program. In fact, the Fortran program, CMBCS, takes up to 15 to 20 minutes to run on the mainframe and several hours for the PC. Such execution times are typical of Fortran based simulation studies. There have been other examples of Fortran based simulation studies in mining. Cross and Williamson (1969) presented a model of a working open-pit copper mine. Fosinato (1982) presented a model of the bucketwheel excavators for the large open-pit mines in Southern Victoria in Australia. These excavators discharge into a complex conveyor system, which can be thought of as being similar, but more complicated than the one modeled by CMBCS. All previous simulation studies using Fortran as the source code have several things in common: they all are very lengthy, often being of the order of 10,000 lines of code and take a great deal of CPU time to execute. The program of Fosinato takes more than 4.5 hours to run on a large mainframe. Also not mentioned by Thompson and Adler is the actual time it took to write the Fortran code. This, too, can be considerable, as Fosinato's program took several man years to write and de-bug. In order to change it, as the parameters change or as the mine increases, further large amount of time is needed. An alternate to such Fortran based programs is provided by using a special computer language known as General Purpose Simulation System (GPSS). This language is designed to solve a wide variety of discrete event simulation problems and appears to be particularly suited for mining situations as shown by Sturgul and Yi (1 987). Although GPSS was introduced as far back as 1961, it has not been used in mining to any great extent. However, the original form was quite crude and inefficient compared to modem versions. Perhaps with the increasing popularity and availability of these recent versions, this will change. Two such versions are GPSS/H for the mainframe and GPSS/PC for the personal computer. GPSS/H allows for interactive usage, such as allowing input data to be entered via a menu. GPSS/PC has excellent graphical capabilities and one can actually view the simulation in progress. In addition, one can halt the simulation and change values of various parameters. If a particular portion of the simulation is in progress via a concept known as "microwindows." These new versions have greatly increased the potential for using the language for mining situations. Mining applications of GPSS have been given by Sturgul and Yi (1987), Sturgul and Harrison (1987), Sturgul (1987), and Sturgul and Singhal (1988). Schriber (1987) presents a summary of the recent advances in GPSS.

Jan 1, 1987

By G. E. McClelland

Introduction Many discoveries have been made during the-past decade of low grade gold-silver deposits in the western US. This has stimulated development of low cost cyanidation procedures for precious metal extraction. Heap leach cyanidation techniques possess considerable potential for application to these low grade ores, small ore bodies, mine strip waste, and tailing materials where fine grinding is not necessary for good extraction. For heap leaching to be successful, these resources must have good permeability to achieve uniform distribution of the cyanide solution throughout the heaps. Some of the most difficult of the gold and silver ores to treat successfully by heap leaching are those containing excessive amounts of clays, or fines generated by crushing. Presence of excessive amounts of slimes, -50 µm (-270 mesh), in the heap leach feed will slow percolation, cause channeling, or produce dormant or unleached areas within the heap. This may result in unreasonably long leaching periods and poor extractions. In extreme cases, the clays or slimes can completely seal the ore heap. This causes the leach solution to run off the sides of the heap rather than penetrate the ore bed. The problem of heap leaching ores with fines can be aggravated while preparing ore heaps because of the natural sorting of coarse and fine material that occurs. This phenomenon results in concentration or ore fines in the center of individual ore piles and concentration of larger rock fragments of the lower slopes and base of the pile. When the individual piles within the heap are leveled off for the installation of the sprinkling system, additional segregation occurs as the fines sift through the coarser ore particles. This results in localized areas or zones with marked differences in permeability. Consequently, the leach solutions follow the course of least resistance. They percolate down through the coarse ore regions and bypass or barely wet areas that contain large amounts of fines or slimes. Effective use of marginal gold and silver resources by heap leaching required development of new methods to achieve more uniform size distribution when preparing ore heaps and better slime control during leaching. Early methods Agglomeration and balling of crushed ore to produce a porous and more uniform feed material for heap leaching is a viable method for treating clayey ores. Researchers from the US Bureau of Mines in Reno, NV began agglomeration pretreatment research in the mid-1970s for applications to and exploitation of these poor percolating feed materials. Little attention had been given to such methods before the Bureau's research. In 1905, T. C. Scrutton developed a unique technique for obtaining rapid vat leaching of a clayey ore where the gold was finely disseminated. His technique consisted of rolling the ore down a chute inclined at 60° to form agglomerates or balls readily permeable by the cyanide solution. However, these agglomerates lacked rigidity. And, to ensure good percolation leaching and washing, they could not be bedded in layers more than 1 m (3 ft) deep. If this depth was exceeded, it is difficult to obtain uniform leaching and washing. This results in reduced gold recovery. Shepard and others in 1937 studied the addition of lime and carbon dioxide or calcium carbonate to gold-bearing tailings to form agglomerates suitable for vat leaching. Satisfactory percolation flow rates were achieved in 90 g (3 oz) scale experiments, but the reagent requirements were cost prohibitive. Agglomeration and pelletizing has been used in other segments of the mineral industry. This technique was first used successfully around 1911 for pelletizing iron ores. Since then, agglomeration

Jan 7, 1986

By J. W. Carson

Introduction Many bulk solids such as coal, limestone, and fine moist ores often flow unpredictably out of bins, hoppers, and boreholes. Vast amounts of time and money are spent-with or without success-on flow promoting devices. In addition, many solids segregate in storage, feed erratically, flood, arch, rathole, and stick to bin walls reducing the live capacity. This article discusses bulk solids flow properties and provides guidelines for designing storage bins, hoppers, and feeders to provide reliable flow. Bulk Solids A bulk solid is a granular material consisting of discrete solid particles-submicron to several inches in size-that is handled in bulk form (for example, in a bin or silo). The gas filling the voids is generally insufficient to fluidize the material and the liquid (usually water) content is assumed to be less than saturation. Types of Flow Problems To design an efficient storage system, an engineer must be aware of problems that can arise during storage and flow of bulk solids: • No flow. A stable arch or pipe (rathole) develops within the solid, stopping flow. • Erratic flow. Momentary arches form within the solid, (ratholes), partly or completely empty out, and then collapse. • Flushing. Powders become fluidized, aerate, and flush uncontrollably through the bin outlet. • Lack of design capacity. A large part of the stored material remains stable around a rathole. Manual prodding, severe vibration, and even explosives may be used to restore flow. • Segregation. Smaller particles tend to sift through the voids between larger particles causing accumulations of fines and coarse in various areas of the bin. • Product degradation. Some materials spoil, cake, or oxidize if they remain in a bin too long. This is usually caused by a first-in-last-out flow sequence. • Level control. Measuring the volume of material left in a bin is difficult if a rathole develops. In one portion of the bin the level control device may indicate the bin is full; in another portion it may indicate it is empty. Eliminating Flow Problems All flow problems can be minimized or prevented by suitable design of the bin/feeder unit. This involves knowing the flow properties of the solid, then choosing the appropriate type of bin and feeder to establish the desired flow pattern. There are three types of flow patterns that may occur in a bin: funnel flow, mass flow, and expanded flow. Funnel flow occurs when some of the material in the bin is stationary while the rest is in motion. Funnel flow bins, shown in Fig. 1, are characterized by: • Low head room. A flat bottom or shallow hopper bin has large storage capacity with minimum height. Unfortunately, all this storage capacity may not be usable ("live"). • First-in-last-out flow sequence. The first material put into a funnel flow bin is the last material withdrawn because the flowing material is concentrated in the region directly above the outlet. • Ratholes. Because of the flow channel that forms, a stable rathole develops if the material has sufficient cohesive strength. • Erratic flow. Once a rathole becomes partially or completely empty, it may collapse creating a stable arch and erratic flow. • Flushing. Collapsing ratholes cause flushing and flooding of fine material. • Segregation. If a bulk solid has a tendency to segregate, this tendency will be accentuated as the material is discharged from a funnel flow bin. Funnel flow bins are suitable for coarse, free flowing, nondegrading solids, when segregation is not important. Mass flow occurs when all the material in a bin is in motion whenever any is withdrawn. Char-

Jan 3, 1983

By M. Javier

"Mining makes civilization possible. It also creates socio-environmental liabilities forcing us to ask how much more of this mining can our planet support. It is clear that the future of mining differs from mining in the future. The laws of nature are being compromised by mining. This paper studies the problems at the core of the mining business which need to be addressed. What kind of mining will serve our existence with nature on this planet? What kind of mining perspectives are we able to formulate without having negative effects for future generations? Is mining technologically sustainable? The values of predictions, imagination, and creativity must be integrated to define what mining should be. Those values should be in the technologies necessary to restoring equilibrium of nature (Geomimic) as well as in complete extraction of metals, better utilization of the mineral reserves, and design the usage of metals to recycle. The purpose of this research is to examine many views and perspectives for future generations and to accelerate the pace of innovation of having mining without socio-environmental liabilities by design and by understanding nature. KEYWORDS: Geomimic, Sustainability, Waste mine Design, Management by Loss. INTRODUCTION The future of mining is being stifled by many antiquated and stagnant attitudes and policies by the industry and society as a whole. The time is now or never for real action and education against these attitudes and to upgrade them to meet the current needs of this planet if we are to survive. Doing this will prove that we understand and respect nature for us and our posterity. It will also show a positive assessment that the mining process can be reversed before the point of no return. And that is to say, only if reversibility is still an option. It may not be anymore but it’s worth a try. We need to use our imagination and engineering know-how to come up with new proposals to change the core of mining. It would entail re-engineering. There is a profound difference between the future of mining and mining in the future. The future of mining is the continuation and persistence of past practices in the industry and expecting new results. Mining in the future requires a paradigm shift for extraction through modern thinking about mining as it pertains nature. The new paradigm for mining in the future would restore equilibrium with nature. Always keep in mind the connection of mining to nature. What is the future of nature? To predict mining in the future we need to use past experiences in mining and our knowledge of modern science and engineering to formulate a prototype that will enhance mining while maintaining equilibrium with nature. Mining and protecting nature are not mutually exclusive. This new prototype has nothing to do with the level of bonding or insurance that the mining industry can legally provide. The goal of this paper is to contribute some new ideas to help transform the mining industry based on the laws of nature and its limitations. Using this new prototype we will develop the following 1. Extraction of minerals Reserves-Dimensions-Technologies 2. Usage of mineral resources-Manufacture’s products designed to be reused and recycled 3. Nature- Equilibrium (physical, chemical and biological)"

Jan 1, 2016

By Anthony R. Przybylek, John M. Visnesky

INTRODUCTION Thermal dryers have been utilized for reducing moisture of bituminous coal since the late 1930's. Since that time, numerous changes in the coal industry have motivated advances in thermal drying technology. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the changes that occurred to dryer design and focus on current practices of fine coal drying. The major topics discussed in this paper are: - Early Thermal Dryer Design and Evolution - Current Drying System Design and Associated Components - Current Economics of Fine Coal Thermal Drying - Future Markets and Design Considerations EARLY THERMAL DRYER DESIGN AND EVOLUTION Background The practice of drying fine coal with heated air has been performed for more than one half century. Throughout that period, both Metallurgical and Steam coal producers have used this method for reducing the surf ace moisture content of their fine plant products. During the late 1930's and early 19401s, vibrating bed and flash dryers were used to per- form the drying duties. Closed water circuits and vacuum filtration had not yet been integrated into process circuitry and centrifugal dryers were in their early stages of development. During that same period, changes in mining practices were reshaping the distribution of coal to our processing facilities. Plants originally designed for the purpose of processing coarser fractions of coal were being burdened with additional quantities of fine coal. Those plants, unable to recover fine coal, would reject these solids to plant bleed. The higher incidences of stream pollution that resulted from these events prompted clean stream legislation and the need for new, more efficient fine coal recovery circuits. The coal processing industry responded to these needs by integrating closed water circuits and filtration into circuits. The fine coal filter cakes recovered exhibited poor handling characteristics by themselves and often required further dewatering to improve their characteristics. Flash dryers at that time were being used to dry the coarser products. For those facilities operating flash dryers, the solution to this new problem appeared to be simple. The filter cake was combined with the coarser (-1/4") coal and then introduced to the flash drying column for drying. The filter cakes, however, presented significant problems for the flash drying systems. Heavy lumps of filter cake could not be dispersed and conveyed by the rising hot air and as a result would settle out in the bottom of the column. This material, known as "drop-out", would then accumulate and require further handling. The solution to this problem was not an easy one. Sophisticated mixing equipment was employed to condition the feed to the dryers. As attempts to minimize drop-out with this approach failed, the only recourse was to collect the material with conveying systems and recycle it back to the plant or dispose of it. The additional costs of handling this material reduced the attractiveness of the flash systems and opened the door for the development of a new, more cost effective coal drying system. Due to the nature of the problems experienced by the flash systems, fluid bed systems were considered. Fluid bed dryers were being used in other industries at that time but had no operating history in the coal industry. Dorr-Oliver transferred technology from other industries and built the first fluid bed drying system for fine coal.

Jan 1, 1988

By Nathan Brandner, Denise Levitan

For many decades, a potash operation in Saskatchewan, Canada, has maintained storage impoundments for mine tailings and process-related mine water. The mine water is a concentrated aqueous solution, with most of the total dissolved solids (TDS) consisting of sodium and chloride. Although the facility has a system of slurry walls and collection/ diversion ditches, the mines monitor the surface water and groundwater around the tailings storage facilities (TSFs) for releases. Groundwater on the western side of the facility has been measured as having concentrations of TDS, magnesium, sodium, chloride and sulfate above provincial drinking water quality objectives. In addition, electromagnetic surveys have shown high electrical conductivity in that area. For these reasons, studies were undertaken to investigate the extent of the high TDS concentrations in groundwater and whether the elevated concentrations were related to the TSF. Chloride and TDS concentrations in groundwater monitoring wells were used to interpret the transport of high-TDS mine water moving along three interpreted zones of elevated TDS west from the facility (Fig. 1). The zones of elevated TDS concentrations corresponded to the areas of high conductivity identified by the geophysical surveys. These results suggested that mine water could be emanating from the TSF and potentially require remediation. However, the interpreted orientation of the high-TDS groundwater and apparent flow paths were perpendicular to the direction of groundwater flow in the area. The fundamental conflicts in these interpretations led to a reexamination of the conceptual site model for the distribution of potential mine water releases. Although the data examination and visualization made it clear that TDS concentration alone was not a reliable indicator of mine water release, there was still concern about elevated chloride concentrations. To further evaluate high TDS and chloride concentrations, several background area wells were installed northwest of the facility, beyond where mine water impacts could occur (Fig, 2). The background wells had highly variable chemical compositions. One of the wells had an elevated TDS concentration with magnesium and sulfate as the dominant ions with chloride concentrations above drinking water objectives, similar to the high-TDS wells west of the facility. The results of the background groundwater investigation (major ion chemistry) were supported by the scientific literature on prairie sloughs throughout the North American Great Plains. These sloughs are small, shallow and sometimes seasonal wetlands found throughout the region. Seasonal cycling in precipitation/ runoff and evapotranspiration result in accumulation and mobilization of salts, especially sulfate-bearing phases such as gypsum. The long-term dynamics of these features, which are common on the property west of the facility, likely control the TDS concentrations and compositions in shallow groundwater rather than mine water migration from the site. The conclusions from this investigation led to a better understanding of the lateral distribution of potential TSF-related impacts versus background groundwater chemistry. Presentation of the data, including the visualizations of different water compositions, to the provincial regulatory agency representative allowed the facility to propose an optimized annual groundwater monitoring plan with reduced sampling frequency and annual sample count. This study underscores the importance of critical evaluation and comparison of various data types, including background levels, from a particular site and the iterative approach to developing and supporting robust conceptual site models for optimizing project outcomes.

Jul 1, 2025

By S. P. Chong, Peter V. Avotins

The iron and steel industry continues to operate at depressed production levels due to the low level of demand for steel and foundry products. Crude steel production in the Western world dropped by 13.7% from 459.3 Gt (506 billion st) in 1981 to 396.4 Gt (437 billion st). The reduction was particularly severe in North America where the industry suffered a loss of 37.3% from 123.6 to 77.5 Gt (136 to 85 billion st). This reduced level of production severely affected iron ore and agglomerates output. Substantial curtailment was made in both sintering and pelletizing plants to meet reduced demand. The pressure on these plant operators shifted from quantity to quality. With energy cost becoming an ever increasing part of production costs, conservation was a major area of emphasis. Iron Making Sinter has continued to be the favored burden for blast furnaces overseas. As hot metal production declined and excess sintering capacity developed, many of the overseas operators that have been using pellets found it advantageous on hot metal production cost to increase the ratio of sinter at the expense of pellets. This was the case despite the depressed price level of pellets in the world market. In North America where pellets have been the predominant burden material-mainly because it is necessary to pelletize the fine grain iron ores available domestically-there was also increased interest in sinter usage. Bethlehem Steel Corporation's 13.6-m (44.5-ft) furnace at Sparrows Point experimented with a burden with more than 70% of sinter during the second half of the year and indicated some favorable results as compared to its previous 50% super flux sinter and 50% acid pellet burden. The blast furnace operators continued to press for improved burden quality. In addition to the emphasis on the importance of burden chemistry and quality, uniformity, much emphasis was placed on improving reducibilitiy and high temperature metallurgical qualities. These burden properties were recognized to hold further promise in reducing fuels rates. Sintering With reduced consumption caused by the cutback in hot metal production, many sinter plants sat idle while others operated at greatly reduced rates. The deemphasis on production in many plants allowed them to experiment with various means to reduce operating costs. The most notable action was the introduction of low cost South American pellet feed fines into the sinter ore mix. These feed fines, which are finer than 150 µm (100 mesh) ore, were previously thought to be too fine for sintering. However, when the full production rate is not required the use of up to 40% in the ore mix was reported to be successful with the aid of burnt lime and adequate premixing and granulation of the sinter mix before sintering. The emphasis on quality and tighter cost control also has resulted in a further breakthrough in sintering technology. It was recognized that good feed preparation-including selection of compatible ores, good blending, good pseudo-particle formation, additive size control increased bed depth, and closed control of the sintering bed heat pattern-could allow the production of high quality sinters with much lower heat input and FeO level. Bed depth of more than 600 mm (23.6 in.) was practiced in a number of operations. Total heat input of better than 1.3 GJ/t (290,300 kcal per st) has been achieved. Kawasaki Steel's Chiba Works has also achieved a 5.3% SiO2 in the sinter with good quality. The low heat input approach allowed production

Jan 5, 1983

By Thomas A. Boyce

Introduction Although innovative coal extraction technology can be approached from many angles, this paper focuses on three: innovation in response to rising costs, to changing mining conditions, and to regulatory issues. Before exploring these three subjects, however, a basic question needs to be raised. Why Innovation? Coal is widely heralded, and quite correctly so, as the United States' "ace in the hole." It has been said that the U.S. is to coal what the Arabs are to oil. The implication is that we have nearly inexhaustible reserves - that coal is cheap, plentiful, and easy to extract. Indeed, because our current productive capacity is estimated to be 15-20% greater than demand, we have been given a false sense of security about the ease of future coal extraction. Therefore, innovative measures are being concentrated on developing technologies for the demand side of coal, including power generation, synthetic fuels, and industrial applications. What is often forgotten is that the unit cost of producing energy from these new technologies depends critically on the cost of the coal feedstock -in some cases the coal consumed accounts for more than one-third the total cost. Thus, while the developers of the end-use technologies struggle to improve the overall thermal efficiency of their process by one or two per¬centage points to make the energy produced competitive in the marketplace, they often are unaware of the risk of a 3 to 6% increase in coal costs wiping out the expensive, hard-earned results of their research. Energy planners are just beginning to realize that coal is not a uniform commodity available at low cost in infinite quantities. Coal is a heterogeneous material whose cost and quality vary widely with local conditions. To produce the massive amounts of projected coal-based energy at reasonable costs, we urgently need devel¬opments in extraction technology, as well as in end-use technology. Thus, coal extraction, coal conversion and utilization, and end -use energy consumption must be viewed as highly interdependent parts of an energy supply network (Fig. 1). And current emphasis on conversion and utilization must be balanced by more emphasis on upstream technologies, including coal extraction. Even more important, the impacts of innovation (or the lack thereof) in any one technology area in the energy supply network need to be discussed and understood by those working in each of the other areas. Why innovation in coal ex¬traction technology? Figuratively, we are all in the "coal boat" together - geologists, miners, transporters, processors, power producers, distributors, and consumers. Innovation is required from each of these sectors to overcome the obstacles that prevent greater use of our most abundant national energy resource. All other links in the coal energy supply network depend on large volumes of coal produced at reasonable costs. Declines in productivity, therefore, must be reversed; the more difficult mining conditions that will be encountered call for new methods and equipment, and regulatory issues must be resolved if the coal ex¬traction link is to be a strength rather than a weakness in the planned U.S. transition to an economy based more on coal and less on imported petroleum. Innovation Tailored to Regional Conditions Once the importance and urgency of innovative coal extraction technology has been grasped, the next step - implementing a research program - becomes quite

Jan 1, 1980

By T. J. Carew

INTRODUCTION The application of micro-computers to the evaluation of an advanced exploration project is illustrated by reference to a large project in the Sudbury Basin region of Canada. The deposit in question is polymetalic (Cu, Pb, Zn, Au, Ag) with a strike length of 3048m (10000ft) and has been explored to a depth of 457m (1500ft) by approximately 1350 diamond drillhole of between 9 - 305m (30-1000ft) in length. The large amount of data involved and the ability to rapidly recalculate geological reserves in response to fluctuating metal prices were key factors in the application of a micro-computer based evaluation system. The evaluation software was implemented at two levels, with data capture implemented mainly on - an entry level workstation comprising an IBM-PC compatible (PC-XT) micro-computer equipped with a 20Mb hard disc, printer and RS-232 serial communication facilities. Data analysis, display, geo- logical modelling and processing was carried out on a high-level workstation based on a Hewlett-Packard 9000 super- micro computer and peripherals, including a 40Mb hard disc, tablet digitizer and plotter. Basic drillhole data was entered either directly at the super- micro or transferred from the PC via the RS-232 link. The evaluation process proceeds once the data is edited and in a "clean" format within a master project database. The software is comprised of a suite of modular, integrated programs based on ease of use, interactive graphics and optimized for the computer workstation. Drillhole data was displayed and plotted as hard copy plots on which geological interpretations were developed. The data was copied into small manageable projects consisting of 100 to 150 drillholes, within which a sectional model was created such that all the models are interconnected along the entire strike with no overlaps. Geological reserves were derived by developing a set of function variables, including Net Smelter Return, within the database. The values of these functions can be displayed on the model sections and "ore” zones defined in accordance with pre-determined cutoff values. Interpolation of the modelled data was then carried out and geological reserves calculated and reported. DATA CAPTURE Drillhole data for the project consisted mainly of existing drillhole logs, although the system allows for the entry of new information as it becomes available. The structure and format (i.e. number and length of variable fields) is user defined. The log for this project comprises an abbreviated section for name, competency, grain size, texture, colour and alteration. Fields are defined for structural information regarding bedding and fault angles and up to seven mineral identification columns and percentages are available. Assay information consisting of the sample number, width and six determinations (Cu%, Pb%, Zn%, Fe%, Au opt., Ag opt.) along with a comments section of 25 characters completes the log. One powerful feature of the data- base is the ability to set up function variables that are mathematical and/or logical combinations of the project variables, enabling the user to develop economic variables such as Net Smelter Return. These functions include current treatment costs, deductions and penalties and can be rapidly recalculated within the database to accommodate changes in metal prices, forecast recoveries and exchange rates (Table 1).

Jan 1, 1987

By I. Iwasaki

There are many reasons why the US mineral and primary metals industry is in its present state. Undoubtedly, a flood of imported goods in all sectors is playing a major role in the plight of our raw materials industry. Domestic industry is becoming increasingly aware of the importance of its international competitiveness. And we are beginning to wonder what is happening to our technological edge. A number of factors affect the international competitiveness. Engineers cannot do much about some of these factors - labor costs, tax policy, government relations, interest rates, dollar strength, and labor-management relations. Something can be done about technology, however. Some say technology is so easily transferable today. But I would like to believe that we have the ability to apply it better than others. Not too many years ago, "made in Japan" meant cheap and shoddy products. Today, Japan has completely changed its image. The US is beginning to feel the threat from Japan's low-cost, defect-free products with dependable delivery. With worldwide recession and the strength of the dollar, we were shocked at the sudden weakness that developed in America's industries, not only in the international market, but domestically as well. What went wrong and what can we do about it? Senior executives from 300 large American manufacturing companies were surveyed. These executives believe US companies must: • invest in more efficient plants and equipment (27%); • invest in more research and development (23%); • improve the quality of service to customers (23%); and • adopt more aggressive marketing tactics and strategies (14%). Are we not doing enough research? The US has nearly four times as many people engaged in research and spends four times as much for research as Japan (Fig. 1). There is little doubt about the excellence of the US performance in basic science as indicated by the number of Nobel prize recipients. Japan has produced only four winners since World War II. Look at technology trade of five countries (Fig. 2). Again, US performance has been remarkable. An interesting observation here, is that the United Kingdom, another country with economic woes, is also in the black, West Germany and Japan, both with trade surpluses, are net technology importers. It is apparent that the US' performance in the commercialization of new knowledge is much more in question. Japan had $50 billion of trade surpluses with the US last year, which led to some friction between Washington, DC and Tokyo. Comparing the technology trade of Japan and the US in more detail, Japan imports disproportionately large amounts of technology from the US and Europe. This data is rather old, 1978, but the general trend is not too different even today. It is generally believed that scientific research leads to innovative technology, then to economic payoff. But, after seeing the current technological challenge by Japan, we are forced to change this traditional view. Investment in research may eventually lead to economic payoff, but not directly. There is a middle ground between new knowledge and its commercialization. This is an area where the Japanese have been successful. Until the 1970s, many western companies licensed patents to Japan for quick profits. But, in recent years, these companies have become more discrete about the terms of technological transfer. As a result, a number of scientists and engineers are expressing deep concern over the future of technological developments in Japan. A survey was conducted on 450 research managers of private industries in Japan on how they viewed the level of breakthroughtype original research in Japan as

Jan 6, 1986

By Nellie E. Guernsey, Louis J. Sousa, Alfred Weiss, Nickolas J. Themelis

Over the past decade, numerous factors have led US copper firms to face increasingly severe competition from low cost foreign producers. As a result, greater attention is being devoted to developing and implementing new technology that can reduce costs and maintain the competitive position of domestic firms while simultaneously meeting environmental requirements. To obtain a better understanding of the likelihood of the development, adoption, and use of innovative copper technologies in the future, the Bureau of Mines contracted with Mineral Systems Inc. of Stamford, CT, to undertake a systematic survey of technological experts in industry, government, and the academic community. According to the survey, major developments in exploration over the next 25 years are likely to be in technologies that facilitate analysis and interpretation of deposit data rather than those that enable the collection of additional data. Most new copper mining and beneficiation technologies are likely to represent evolutionary extensions of existing systems with a notable increase expected in the application of information systems technologies and computer control methods. A possible movement towards increased usage of continuous mining systems in copper was also noted. Experts indicated that several copper smelters are under consideration for extensive renovation and, as a result, flash smelting technology is expected to become much more widely used in the US. A gradual movement toward continuous smelting methods was also forecast. In copper refining, the major technological change expected is the gradual automation of various refinery operations. Finally, though increased usage is expected, in situ solution mining and hydrometallurgical processing of sulfide ores are not expected to become widespread over the forecast time horizon. This first article in a two-part series describes the survey method chosen and the technological innovations selected for eval¬uation. Also discussed are the assessment panels, background scenarios, critical events, and diffusion forecasts. Next month, part two will address technology forecasts resulting from the study. Featured are discussions on future copper exploration, mining, beneficiation, smelting, refining, and recycling. A cost/benefit analysis will also be included. Methodology Selection of Assessment Method To develop a consensus forecast of technological change in the copper industry, a technique for systematically polling subjective opinions of experts was required. After conducting a literature survey and some preliminary testing, the direct probability assessment method was selected. With this assessment method experts are asked to express in quantitative terms their judgment of the probability that a specified event will occur, usually over a series of time frames. The method was chosen because the experts were observed to be more comfortable with this approach during the testing period, and the results of this process effectively satisfied the assessment objective. The experts generally could provide more precise estimates of the timing of future events using this technique because it was the least cumbersome of the assessment methods tested. Identification, Selection, and Description of the Technologies The initial list (Table 1) of innovative copper technologies assessed in the study was developed from two principal sources: knowledge and expertise of the study team and a review of relevant technical literature. From this list of 47 potential technologies, 10 were selected for detailed assessment. Table 2 lists 35 technologies that were subsequently identified in the first series of assessments. Twelve technologies from this list were also selected for detailed evaluation in a second assessment round. Criteria used for the final selection of technologies for detailed assessment specified that: • The expected impact of each technology on copper supply (i.e.,

Jan 9, 1983