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By D. G. Krige

Discussion by D.G. Krige I read the paper "The jackknife approach" with interest. There appears to be a widespread misunderstanding of the kriging variance as a measure of the error variance of the kriged grade estimate of an ore block. Virtually all mineral deposits display skew frequency distributions and are subject to the well-known proportional effect. Thus, it is usual to find in an ore body, when subdivided a really into subpopulations, that the variances of the grades (or the total sills of the variograms) for the subpopulations will be correlated with the corresponding mean grades (usually linearly with the squares of the mean grades). Thus, the variogram will be station. When this feature is evident, the relative variograms for the subpopulations (i.e., with variogram values divided by the relevant mean squared) will be similar, or they could even be accepted at an averaged model for the whole ore body with stationarity. Using this approach, the kriging variance will reflect the relative error variance that is to be multiplied by the kriged block grade estimate squared to yield the usual kriging variance for purposes of confidential limits. The objection that the kriging variance does not take into account the local grades used for a block valuation then falls away. In the example given by the authors, the global mean grade is not recorded. But the global variance, taken at the value of the total sill, is 0.005, whereas the variance of the 11 values used in the example is 0.000152. The two variances differ by a factor of nearly six. If the relative variogram approach is applicable in this case, the need for a jackknife technique will fall away. Also note that, for skew distributions, the confidence limits for ore-block estimates will be skew as well, and symmetrical normal limits will not apply. RepIy by G.S. Adisoma and M.G. Hester There are a few interesting ways to utilize the block-by-block kriging variance that the authors have encountered. One of them is to classify a particular block into a proven-probable reserve or a possible-resource category, using a somewhat subjectively determined kriging variance value. Here, the kriging variance still represents the drilling density, i.e., data configuration more than the data values. Professor Krige mentions another ingenious approach through the use of relative variograms. This will yield a block kriging variance that takes into account local (block) grade, as he correctly points out, for purposes of confidence limits. However, we are more interested in quantifying the uncertainties associated with grade estimation in a much larger scale than a block. e.g., for a mining phase or the minable reserve. The jackknife, through the block kriging shortcut, provides a simple solution to obtain a single estimation variance for a general shape. The authors' main reference discusses different ways to handle skewed distributions typical in mineral resource estimation, e.g., the weighted jackknife approach or data transformation. Also, as with any technique, we can always improve our estimate by subdividing into smaller populations that are geologically and statistically separate domains. As we have mentioned; the jackknife is but a tool in our collection of tools to solve estimation problems. The jackknife's appeals are its simplicity and versatility. It is handy when no other solution is available, or when the available solution is not practical. It is used with other methods, not to replace them altogether. ?

Jan 1, 1997

By William R. Nash

Introduction As ore grades decline and deposit depths increase, problems and costs of mining construction increase rapidly. Ground water greatly impacts the cost of mining construction. In developing or exploiting ore bodies or coal mines, stored ground water in waterbearing formations is often encountered. Man-made conduits or shafts are constructed, as are raise bores for ventilation (up to 6-m-diam or 20-ft-diam), or smaller diameter drill holes, used for either power cables or rock dust. In underground construction and mining, it is possible to inherit unmapped and abandoned drill holes either from oil or gas exploration, or from previous geological investigations. There also exists within underground work exposure to faults, fissures, and jointing. A mine development may encounter unknown aquifers or, unluckily, have an ore body that is an aquifer. Water may invade an existing underground structure, due to concrete deterioration or to damage that may occur to an existing shaft or tunnel concrete lining. An underground development may intersect a drill hole that was not properly grouted when abandoned. It subsequently formed a conduit or an active path to conduct water into the mine. Water inflow may range from insignificant to a magnitude sufficient to inundate an area or an entire underground development. Corrosion imposes major costs. In shafts, it can cause accelerated wear and deterioration, and subsequent early replacement of hoisting ropes. It can also cause deterioration, misalignment, and subsequent accelerated wear and replacement of timber and steel guides and buntons. Utility maintenance (power cables, air, water, and ventilation lines) also can become a problem. Corrosion imposes major costs. Skips and skiploaders provide a never-ending series of maintenance headaches when exposed to an ingress of water. Numerous problems are found in declines with invert and rail maintenance and with partitions in over-under coal mine slopes. Ground water interacting with an underground ventilation system can result in: • Increased ventilation resistance due to roof falls and the spalling of ribs caused by ice heaving. • Restriction in shaft or slope cross-sectional area due to ice buildup during winter months. This may be a safety hazard to access as well. • An increase in the moisture content entering the ventilation air that condenses underground and causes electrical and equipment maintenance problems. Underground structures also incur water-caused problems. The concrete lining in shafts, slopes, and tunnels may be subject to: • Active mine waters causing concrete and reinforcing steel to deteriorate - perhaps to the point of collapse. • Load redistribution around a concrete lining, caused by soil dislocation due to water movement. The resulting stress may be in excess of the calculated design loading. Backwall injection with grout of the completed concrete lining may solve these water inflow problems through low-pressure injections of cement and chemicals. This fills voids at the interface of the concrete lining with either the soil or rock excavation. Surface structures may be jeopardized by lowering the ground water table, resulting in surface settlements. Surface settlements can occur in buildings, headframes, hoist foundations, mills, conveyor structures, or in rail haulage. Areas of differential settlement can lead to derailments, improper wear of hoisting ropes on sheaves in headframes, and the misalignment of bearings and brakes. Mud jacking and compaction grouting may remedy these problems. To reduce operating costs, increase efficiency, and increase safety, inflow water to the mine should be minimized. For an operating mine with a water problem, a water inflow survey should be taken. Quantities of water flow should be examined at all accesses (shafts, slopes, bore holes, and raise bores) at the faces, haulages (rails or conveyors), and sump discharge. From this examination and quantity survey before and after heavy rainfalls, valuable data for elim-

Jan 3, 1984

By G. F. Raymond

Discussion by G.F. Raymond Knudsen's study presents two curious conclusions: • The kriging of blasthole assays can systematically overstate mill head grades by as much as 21% as a result of unbiased sample variance. • No estimation method is able to reduce this bias to a small margin. The study is based on a simulation using real data and what are presumed to be actual variogram parameters from a real deposit. Although I have no doubt that the first conclusion (21% overestimation) is correct for the author's simulation, I do not believe this represents a realistic mining situation. Over the past 15 years I have done extensive comparisons between exploration drill-hole assays, blasthole assays and mill head grades on seven major open-pit mines, including some very erratic gold deposits. Commonly, nugget effects on blasthole variograms were 10% - 20% higher than on exploration variograms. And in one extreme case, the difference was 50%. Even in the extreme case, ordinary kriging on blastholes agreed well with the mill head grade over the long term. In Knudsen's simulation, the blasthole nugget effect is assumed to be 200% higher than exploration data's. He supports this by variogram plots from each. My guess is that the apparent, large difference between these variograms results from a failure to account for the proportional effect (blasthole assays are likely from a higher-grade area). A simple check would be a comparison of the variance of exploration samples nearest blastholes. As for a nearly conditionally-unbiased estimator of a large random error, the arithmetic mean of all of the data certainly qualifies, provided there is an even data spacing. As a corollary, so does simple kriging, which would include, in this case, a large weighting to the arithmetic mean. Similarly, using a large number of samples with ordinary kriging or indicator kriging would significantly reduce the bias in the case of a large nugget effect for the variogram.[ ] Reply by H. Peter Knudsen Raymond questions two conclusions in the paper. First, he wonders whether a 21 % overestimation represents a realistic mining situation. I agree that 21 % is high, but overestimation in the range of 10% to 15% is certainly common in my experience. Furthermore, several years ago I consulted on a gold mine that was experiencing a 45% overestimation due, predominantly, to poor blasthole samples: In further questioning of the 21 % value, Raymond wonders whether the nugget effect of the blastholes is really so much larger than the nugget values of the exploration data. It is consistently larger throughout the deposit. In my experience with six Nevada gold mines, the high nugget value is not unusual. In fact, for some reason, nugget values for blasthole samples are typically about 0.0005 (opt squared). I am of the opinion that this high nugget effect observed at many gold mines is predominantly due to the inherent inadequacies of the blasthole sample and subsequent sample preparation. The second conclusion Raymond questions is the inability of the estimators tested to reduce the conditional bias. In fact, the conditional bias is extreme with the polygon estimator and greatly reduced by ordinary kriging. However, it was not eliminated. Raymond suggests using simple kriging, or perhaps a larger number of samples, to reduce the conditional bias. The technique of simple kriging may be less affected by the random errors in the data, but I did not test the technique. Using a larger amount of data presupposes that too few samples were used initially. In ordinary kriging and indicator kriging, the screen effect comes into play and ensures that samples beyond the second screen are given zero weight. Hence, increasing the sample size does not change the estimates nor the conditional bias. The main point of my paper is that the random unbiased errors (a fact of life in blasthole samples) cause a conditional bias in our estimates. The mechanics by which the conditional bias is introduced are nicely explained by Springett. My paper simply shows that the bias is also present when working with linear estimators, such as ordinary kriging, and even with nonlinear estimators, such as indicator kriging.[ ]

Jan 1, 1993

By E. A. Rychkun

Introduction Minicomputers have been gaining acceptance in mining. Low cost interactive processing and plotting can now be controlled by geologists or engineers needing rapid solutions and specialized mining software in formats that allow noncomputer personnel to readily interact with computer processes. User-oriented programs maximize the use of interactive display features and graphics, as shown by the HP9845 minicomputer, a unit with portability, processing power, graphics capabilities, capacity, and peripherals such as plotters, digitizers, disk drives, and printers. Application Coal exploration projects require that much effort be spent determining coal volumes within trial pit limits. This determines a prospect's viability and potential. Adapting volume calculations to a computer has been limited, since it was difficult to create reasonable representations of complex coal seam geometry with a digital process. So many of the simple mechanical procedures needed to produce pit reserves are still performed manually by geologists and engineers. But with new minicomputers and their interactive graphics, it is now practical to accurately model complex structures without tedious calculations. GEOSEM (Geomin Seam Oriented Exploration System) is a computer system designed to analyze coal prospects. The system shows how a coal prospect, with complex geology, can be quickly analyzed, modeled, displayed, and evaluated for mineable reserves. Its interactive graphics allow rapid visual presentation of data, high-speed tabular reports, and precision plotting. The system is most effective when used by a geologist or engineer who selects the required operations and specifies relevant parameters via screen and keyboard interaction. Rolling Hills The Rolling Hills prospect represents a typical Rocky Mountain coal deposit. Enough geological interpretation has been done to show a complex system of block faulting with coal seams following synclines of stratified lithologies. With the completion of initial drill hole exploration, questions arose concerning coal volumes and strip ratios involved with various pit limits. Quality information had been gathered on the coal intercepts. It was decided that coal vol¬umes and pit designs were of prime importance. The objective was to enter and display data, create a computer model based on interpretation, develop pit designs, compute seam/ waste volumes, and report various contents. The project, begun by entering data in the GEOSEM system, was completed in several days. Data Entry For modeling, the prime information was seam identity and drill hole intercept. Other information-rock type, Btu rating, and percent of ash, sulfur, and moisture-was also available. It, too, was entered into the data base through the computer keyboard and then reported, verified, and corrected. Various reports can be produced, according to user specified sort parameters. For example, from an analysis of available data, only 14 intercepts could be found with Btu value greater than 8000 and sulfur content less than 0.4%. The sort option can also be used prior to entry into the analysis routines. Data Analysis Though the objective was to create a seam model and compute reserves, it became necessary to project quality information into unsampled areas. Statistical analysis was then war-ranted. A typical analysis correlated the lack of relationship between percentage of ash and Btu. Although histograms were also produced, these typified a lack of samples and "ragged" distributions. A geostatistical analysis was also applied, showing the results of computing a 2-D variogram on the largest coal seam. Results showed an average range of 18 m, with a poorly defined variogram. Data Display and Drafting Scaled plans and sections were required so seam locations could be compared to hand drawn interpretations and drill coordinates verified. At the same time, topography could be interpolated from collar elevations to determine whether surface control points were needed for better definition. In addition, a new set of 50 final-scale drawings were required, showing new drilling information. By using the computer screen as a "scratch pad" device, various sections were displayed and then plotted on a drum plotter at the desired scale for overlay on original sections. Both lithology and seam name were plotted for the five main sections. Since the coal seams were striking north-south, sec-

Jan 11, 1981

By Kanaan Hanna, Mir Heydari, Dipack Sengupta, Gordon B. French

This article concludes a two-part series on the safety, technology, and economic impact of eliminating safety fuse from metal and nonmetal mines. Discussed are the consequences of fuse abolishment, the technical feasibility of changing to an alternative system, and an economic analysis of initiation systems. Last month, part one (ME, pages 31-35) described current use of initiation systems, incidence of accidents, and consumption values for safety fuse and other initiation systems. Consequences of Fuse Abolishment Cap and Fuse Manufacturers Two major safety fuse manufacturers, Ensign Bickford and Apache Powder Co., share the US fuse market. Marketing of Ensign Bickford safety fuse is done by Dupont. Dupont manufactures electric caps as a main product and recently introduced a new nonelectric initiation system (Detaline). Therefore, Dupont would be only slightly affected by the elimination of safety fuse from metal and nonmetal mining. Ensign Bickford, though a larger manufacturer of fuse, does not appear to emphasize the safety fuse market. In fact, safety fuse sales represent only about 10% of Ensign Bickford's total sales volume. Ensign Bickford is strongly pushing its Nonel product. It appears, therefore, that the elimination of safety fuse would have a limited effect on Ensign Bickford, and could ultimately be to the company's advantage. Apache Powder Co., however, would be seriously affected if safety fuse was eliminated. Safety fuse, although not its only product, constitutes a major source of revenue for the company. It currently does not manufacture a substitute product. Apache Powder Co.'s manager agrees that prohibiting the use of safety fuse would result in a greater market share of initiators for Ensign Bickford. Hercules could also benefit from the prohibition of safety fuse. Metal and Nonmetal Mining Industry According to an explosive company contact, elimination of safety fuse by a mandatory regulation would force some of the small, marginal mines out of business. Another powder company representative believes that eliminating safety fuse will result in uneasy situations for small operators not familiar with other techniques. These operators try to minimize the costs and traditionally like safety fuse. He believes that insufficient proof exists to substantiate the overall safety increase if the fuse is eliminated. Fuse manufacturers and distributors disagree, then, about the impact of safety fuse elimination. However, they tend to agree on some important points: • Safety fuse can be a safe method if applied properly. • Electric blasting can be dangerous due to stray currents, and may have higher misfire rates than safety fuse. • It is very difficult to compare the rate of misfires and partial round failures for different systems. This is due simply to the nonavailability of such data. In many cases, the misfires are not even reported to the shift boss, as required by regulations. • Safety fuse has high acceptance in certain applications, such as a face where Nonel or detonating cord are used, or in open-pit blasting. • The safety fuse industry appears to be phasing out on its own. It is expected that the fate of the safety fuse market will be similar to that of black powder. An investigation by Nitro Noble of Sweden "clearly states that the diminishing use of safety fuse has considerably reduced the accidents in Swedish mines." Mine Data Acquisition and Analysis As a part of the study effort, visits were arranged to 24 metal and nonmetal mines. In most cases, underground visits were accomplished. At least one drilling and loading operation was witnessed. The mines were grouped into four mining areas: Wyoming, Montana, Idaho; western Colorado and eastern Utah; Missouri; and southern Arizona. Of all mines visted, the safety fuse system was used in 11 mines, electrical system in seven, Nonel in five, and the Hercudet system in one surface mine. At each mine, the manager, foreman, and blasting crew were interviewed for information and opinions. Besides informal discussions with mine officials, a questionnaire was also filled out for each mine. Due to the extensive length of the information gathered, these data are not presented here.

Jan 2, 1984

By Jon P. Thorson, James W. Babcock

The second Belt Symposium in Missoula, MT, Oct. 9-16, 1983, was designed by its conveners as a field conference on progress in the Proterozoic Belt Supergroup rocks. The symposium was sponsored by the University of Montana with corporate support by Anaconda Minerals. Asarco Inc., Exxon Minerals Co.. Hecla Mining Co., Molycorp Inc., Noranda Exploration Co., and Utah International Inc. Introduction The Belt Supergroup is a thick middle Proterozoic sedimentary sequence deposited in a basin along the edge of the North American craton. Subsequent geological events have modified the basin so its remaining rocks outcrop in Montana, Idaho, northeast Washington, southeast British Columbia, and southwest Alberta. The Canadian equivalent of the Belt is called the Purcell Supergroup. Several similar age basins occurred along the western edge of the Proterozoic North American craton. The sedimentary sequence in the Belt basin aggregates is more than 18 km (60,000 ft) in the thickest section, where the bottom is still unexposed and the top removed by erosion. The limits of the Belt basin are poorly known because of later sedimentation and tectonic disruption. Knowledge about the Belt terrane has been difficult and tedious to obtain because the rocks are generally monotonous and fine-grained. During the last decade, new 1:250,000 scale reconnaissance maps of most of the Proterozoic Belt terrane were published, open-filed or otherwise brought close to completion. These maps provided the opportunity and challenge to consider the stratigraphy and tectonics of the Belt Supergroup as a complete basin. This broader view has contributed greatly to the solution of numerous geological problems created by previous, more focused work. Along with the availability of better geological base, there have been new exploration developments. The 1973-1983 decade saw proof of the commercial viability of the Cu-Ag mineralization at the Troy mine. The conclusion was also accepted that the Sullivan mine was a sedimentary massive sulfide. So was the conclusion that the Cu-Co mineralization at the Blackbird mine at Cobalt, ID, was the result of similar submarine exhalative processes. And there were discoveries of another Cu-Ag deposit "larger and higher grade" than the Troy mine and of two new massive sulfide districts. The Belt-Purcell terrane has long intrigued exploration and mining geologists as the host of Pb-Zn-Ag veins of Idaho's Coeur d'Alene district and of the Sullivan mine at Kimberley, British Columbia, one of the largest Pb-Zn-Ag deposits in North America. In the mid-1960s, Bear Creek Mining Co.'s discoveries of the stratabound copper-silver occurrences in the Revett Formation brought new interest in the basin's geology. The recognition of the Sullivan ore body as a sediment-hosted massive sulfide has also generated minerals exploration activity in the US portion of the Belt basin. This activity increased again after the Australian discovery of the world class Olympic Dam deposit at Roxby Downs, South Australia. This occurred because of some suggested similarities in the regional geologic setting of the Belt basin with the Adelaide geosyncline, the host for the Olympic Dam deposit. Technical Sessions Technical sessions topics included Lower Belt and Ravalli Group stratigraphy, Middle Belt carbonate and Missoula Group stratigraphy, Belt-Purcell stratigraphy, structure and tectonics, strata-related mineral resources, geochronology and geophysics, geochemistry and isotope geology, and a summary of significant problems. Evening poster sessions dealt with the topics and papers presented each day. Since the first Belt Symposium, mapping of the stratigraphic units and their tectonic setting has enabled geologists to progress in conducting a basin analysis. Belt Symposium II revealed no concensus on many aspects of belt geology. However, basic stratigraphic studies have reached the point that models can be constructed. The Prichard Formation is equivalent to the Aldridge Formation, but detailed correlations were not previously available. Studies were made by Finch and Baldwin (Cominco American) and by Cressman (US Geological Survey). These studies established important correlations of key markers within the Aldridge Formation to units in the Prichard Formation. This will help eliminate geologic interpretation problems at the US-Canada frontier and make Belt basin reconstruction more accurate. Also, the Sullivan ore deposit was shown to be formed in the deeper distal part of the basin. This contrasts to the more proximal depositional position of the Prichard Formation. Hamilton

Jan 6, 1984

By Lee W. Saperstein

The SME Research Council assists SME and its constituencies in establishing research directions that will benefit the mining industry and its professions. It also provides information about these directions to its membership, to government and to related industrial societies. The 1995 Research Forum, organized and chaired by George Luxbacher, was the second in a series of meetings organized to develop these directions. A copy of the full proceedings is available from SME for $12 plus postage and handling. The first research forum (Saperstein, L., 1993, "Technology for the Future, MINING ENGINEERING, Vol. 45, No 11, November, pp. 1382-85) invited mining industry representatives to discuss the unsolved technical problems that were keeping the industry from greater economic and environmental efficiency. The second forum asked academic researchers to discuss the same general topics from their perspective. It came as no surprise that, in general, the two sets of presenters tackled the same problems. There was no surprise when the academics spoke of the need for fundamental long-term research. What may have been surprising was the number of university people who spoke for near-term research that leads to measurable economic returns or savings. The closure of the US Bureau of Mines (USBM) has changed the objectives and attitudes of the SME Research Council. From being a point of liaison between SME and USBM - a conduit of items from each party to the other the council is now much more on its own. This isolation presents opportunities and hazards. The opportunities are exciting because the council could be the focus for mineral industry research policy if it were properly structured. The hazard is obvious - if there is no bureau, it could be argued, why maintain the council? Many people believe that SME should take the first course and become the beacon for research policy. More than ever, money is being spent on minerals industry research by the federal and state governments - particularly at the mineral-oriented land-grant universities - by industry and by consortia among these groups. SME could be at the hub of these programs. There is a general concern that industry is less able to maintain an economic edge by means of geologic discovery. According to Titley, there will be fewer major, new world-class discoveries except, possibly, at the continental and tectonic-plate margins. Consequently, economic advantage will go to those companies and nations that stay ahead technologically. Given the inevitable diffusion of technology, it can be concluded that technology development, underpinned by research, must be continuous to maintain profits. This is a change from earlier years when change would occur in relatively rare major steps that were interspersed with extended periods of technological equilibrium. Over the fiscal years 1994 to 1997, there has been a 24% cut in research spending by the Department of the Interior (figures from the American Association for the Advancement of Science). This is the largest budgeted percentage cut in research funding of any federal department. Even so, there is still a substantial amount of federal research funding expended in the mineral and extractive-energy industries. The US Geological Survey, Environmental Protection Agency, Departments of Defense and Energy and others expend substantial funds on minerals industry research. Industry - producers and manufacturers - is also spending large sums on research and research-like activities. This activity argues that there is a role for SME's Research Council. Providing focus Consortia. The closure of USBM has resulted in the migration of expertise to consulting firms and to other entreprenrutisl research entities. Many of these groups are creating ad hoc consortia among themselves, nearby universities and industrial partners. The Research Council is well placed to provide an open forum for these con¬sortia. Presentations of research results, as went on in the annual meetings of the Generic Mineral Technology Centers, can help to establish an. archive of results and an avoidance of duplication of research. A continuing sense of research directions can evolve. National Science Foundation. No discussion of consortia would be complete without mention. of the National Science Foundation's (NSF) programs for Industry/University Cooperative Research Centers (IUCRC) and Grant Opportunities for Academic Liaison with Industry (GOALI). NSF is aware of the gap in federal support of science and technology caused by USBM's closure.

Jan 1, 1997

By Thomas O’Neil

Part 2 of this article continues with a discussion of features that distinguish contemporary investment analysis in mining from earlier methods. Part 1 traced the evolution of evaluation methodology from the traditional and discounted cash flow methods to the present. Quantitative investment models of the past 20 years played an important role in mine evaluation, but a new integrated approach to mine investment decision-making is now developing because of growing economic, technical, and political uncertainties. One of those uncertainties -inflation-was discussed in Part 1. Increased Risk At a time when mineral production technology and analytical evaluation tools have never been more sophisticated, it may seem anomalous to claim that mining ventures are riskier. Whereas technical risk has, indeed, been notably reduced, business risk the chance of a major loss due to market factors-has increased. This has been caused by two factors: the rapidly rising capital requirements of new projects and increasingly unpredictable future economic conditions. These difficulties are compounded by the long lead times of large, new mining projects. Rising Capital Requirements A $100 million investment is no longer considered to be a large mining project in most cases. For a large metal mining project, the total cost of the concentrator alone can exceed $100 million. Amoco Minerals' Thompson Creek molybdenum mine being developed in Idaho will cost over $350 million, for a relatively modest sized (23-kt/d or 25,000-stpd) ore operation with no extraordinary features. For a major grass roots copper operation producing blis¬ter or refined copper, the capital requirements are billions of dollars, not millions. Project costs are higher for two reasons. One, the projects themselves are larger; and two, the capital cost per unit of production is rising rapidly. Projects are larger because lower grade ores, yielding smaller margins, must be mined in greater volume-particularly in view of the high fixed costs of modern technology. When analysts contemplate any capital project, an important consideration is the minimum economic size of the facility. This is the smallest size that can be built and still be competitive on a total unit production cost basis. In the conventional copper smelting business, for example, a production rate of at least 91 kt/a (100,000 stpy) of blister copper is about the absolute minimum for reducing unit fixed costs to competitive levels. Clearly, many variables affect the minimum economic size of a mining facility, but with few exceptions that size continues to grow. Unit capital costs of new mining projects also are continuing to rise. The accompanying table shows that the capital costs in primary copper production have risen faster than the cost of living. Of particular note is the capital charge of over $1.70/kg (77411b) required for a new, fully integrated facility in 1981. Thus, the mid-1982 copper price would not even cover the cost of capital for a new copper producing complex without considering the direct operating costs for such a facility. The breath-taking costs of new mining projects are caused by factors such as increasingly complex technology, the rising social costs of creating attractive living and working conditions for employ¬ees, and the expenditures re¬quired for environmental protec¬tion. For whatever reasons, how¬ever, unit capital costs in mining continue to exhibit staggering growth rates. Future Economic Conditions Risk is not only a function of the size of the potential loss-an im¬portant measure of which is the capital intensity of mining dis¬cussed above-but also of the like¬lihood of incurring the loss. It is here that the ever increasing lead times of mining projects and the glaring limitations of economic forecasting are so important. In comparison to nearly all other in¬vestments, mining has more capi¬tal at stake for a longer period of time before commercial uncer¬tainty is resolved by distant eco¬nomic conditions that are subject to high forecasting errors. A sobering example of the pre¬ceding points occurred with the Lakeshore copper mine in south¬ern Arizona that Hecla Mining Co. undertook to finance and manage in 1969. The project was a joint venture of Hecla and the El Paso Natural Gas Co. and included two mines-one producing oxide ore and a second in the sulfide zone¬and a complex processing facility producing both electrowon cop¬per cathodes and copper precipi¬tates. The project originally was

Jan 12, 1982

By J. H. Tu

The technical paper correctly points out that the kriging variance is not a good measure of the uncertainty of the estimated (i.e., kriged) value of individual blocks. The au thors claim that their proposed jackknife method, which is a rekriging of each block by eliminating, in turn, one sample from the original sample set and then taking the average of the rekriged estimates, not only gives good block estimates, but the resulting jackknife kriging standard deviation is a useful indicator of the "true uncertainty associated with block estimates." However, they immediately abandon the idea of using the block-by-block standard deviations, reasoning that these standard deviations are not independent and that there is no easy way to utilize them. There may be another reason for not using them. The jackknife standard deviations for individual blocks given in their example are mostly in the range of 0.004 to 0.005 oz/st (0.14 to 0.17 g/t) with only one block having a high value of 0.012 oz/st (0.41 g/ t). These individual block standard deviations are as low as the jackknife standard deviation for the mean grade of the entire shape, i.e., 0.0041 oz/st (0.14 g/t). Do they represent the "true uncertainty" of the individual block estimates? Could the authors explain this? In a global shape consisting of a large number of blocks, any given sample will affect the kriged estimate of only those few blocks within its vicinity. This is the rationale for the authors' selective rekriging, making the jackknife algorithm more efficient. On second thought, why not do away with jackknifing altogether? Just cumulate and normalize, if necessary, the kriging weights of each sample used during the ordinary block kriging process, and then compute the global variance from these kriging weights and their respective sample grades? After all, isn't the global mean grade nothing but the weighted average of the samples used in the estimation? Reply by G.S. Adisoma and M.G. Hester The jackknife is one of the many tools in a practitioner's toolbox to solve estimation problems. The strengths of the technique lies in its simplicity, i.e., it uses the concept of mean and standard deviation and the fact that it can be easily combined with other tools, in this case kriging. Because the jackknife kriging (JK) estimate is also the mean of the pseudovalues, the JK standard deviation is attractive just as the standard deviation of the mean explains the variability of the data. The difference is that the pseudovalue calculation in jackknife kriging uses the ordinary kriging (OK) weighting scheme instead of simple arithmetic averaging. The data used to illustrate the jackknife technique in the paper consist of high values that are roughly three times the low values. The resulting JK estimate of the block grades show that the highest estimate is roughly twice the grade of the lowest estimate. The contrast between the low and the high estimate is more evident in the JK estimate than in the OK estimate, even though the mean grades of the blocks for the two estimates are very similar. Nonetheless, in this paper, we are concentrating more on the need for a more realistic measure of uncertainty, or precision, for the estimate. Unlike its OK counterpart, the JK standard deviation of the blocks clearly reflects the original data variation. The highest JK standard deviation of the blocks is three times its lowest value. This follows our intuition that, when the samples used to estimate a block is more variable, the resulting estimation variance (or standard deviation) should be higher than the case where the samples are more uniformly valued. However, block-by-block standard deviation or variance is of little practical value in reserve estimation and classification, as well as in mine planning. One is usually more interested in quantifying not the variance of the individual block estimate, but the uncertainties associated with a much larger dimension, such as the minable reserve. Thus, the thrust of the paper is to find a simple way to obtain a single estimation variance or standard deviation associated with the reserve grade estimate. The discussion by J.H. Tu did not mention how one would obtain the global variance from the OK weights and the sample grades. As a technique that offers a data valuebased measure of uncertainty for its estimate, the "leave-one-out" jackknife fills this need nicely through the block kriging shortcut approach described in the paper. Note: The first column and the last two columns of Table 3 in the paper should have contained a single number each, namely, an OK estimate of 0.0317, a JK estimate of 0.0333 and a JK standard deviation of 0.0041 oz/st, respectively, for the shape, as are obvious from the text. ?

Jan 1, 1998

By J. H. Tu

The technical paper correctly points out that the kriging variance is not a good measure of the uncertainty of the estimated (i.e., kriged) value of individual blocks. The authors claim that their proposed jack-knife method, which is a rekriging of each block by eliminating, in turn, one sample from m the original sample set and then taking the average of the rekriged estimates, not only gives good block estimates, but the resulting jackknife kriging standard deviation is a useful indicator of the "true uncertainty associated with block estimates." However, they immediately abandon the idea of using the block-by-block standard deviations, reasoning that these standard deviations are not independent and that there is no easy way to utilize them. There may be another reason for not using them. The jackknife standard deviations for individual blocks given in their example are mostly in the range of 0.004 to 0.005 oz/st (0.14 to 0.17 g/t) with only one block having a high value of 0.012 oz/st (0.41 g/ t). These individual block standard deviations are as low as the jackknife standard deviation for the mean grade of the entire shape, i.e., 0.0041 oz/st (0.14 g/t). Do they represent the "true uncertainty" .of the individual block estimates? Could the authors explain this? In a global shape consisting of a large number of blocks, any given sample will affect the kriged estimate of only those few blocks within its vicinity. This is the rationale for the authors' selective rekriging, making the jackknife algorithm more efficient. On second thought, why not do away with jackknifing altogether? Just cumulate and normalize, if necessary, the kriging weights of each sample used during the ordinary block kriging process, and then compute the global variance from these kriging weights and their respective sample grades? After all, isn't the global mean grade nothing but the weighted average of the samples used in the estimation? Reply by G.S. Adisoma and M.G. Hester The jackknife is one of the many tools in a practitioner's toolbox to solve estimation problems. The strengths of the technique lies in its simplicity, i.e., it uses the concept of mean and standard deviation and the fact that it can be easily combined with other tools, in this case kriging. Because the jackknife kriging (JK) estimate is also the mean of the pseudovalues, the JK standard deviation is attractive just as the standard deviation of the mean explains the variability of the data. The difference is that the pseudovalue calculation in jackknife kriging uses the ordinary kriging (OK) weighting scheme instead of simple arithmetic averaging. The data used to illustrate the jackknife technique in the paper con¬sist of high values that are roughly three times the low values. The resulting JK estimate of the block grades show that the highest estimate is roughly twice the grade of the lowest estimate. The contrast between the low and the high estimate is more evident in the JK estimate than in the OK estimate, even though the mean grades of the blocks for the two estimates are very similar. Nonetheless, in this paper, we are concentrating more on the need for a more realistic measure of uncertainty, or precision, for the estimate. Unlike its OK counterpart, the JK standard deviation of the blocks clearly reflects the original data variation. The highest JK standard deviation of the blocks is three times its lowest value. This follows our intuition that, when the samples used to estimate a block is more variable, the resulting estimation variance (or standard deviation) should be higher than the case where the samples are more uniformly valued. However, block-by-block standard deviation or variance is of little practical value in reserve estimation and classification, as well as in mine planning. One is usually more interested in quantifying not the variance of the individual block estimate, but the uncertainties associated with a much larger dimension, such as the minable reserve. Thus, the thrust of the paper is to find a simple way to obtain a single estimation variance or standard deviation associated with the reserve grade estimate. The discussion by J.H. Tu did not mention how one would obtain the global variance from the OK weights and the sample grades. As a technique that offers a data value-based measure of uncertainty for its estimate, the "leave-one-out" jackknife fills this need nicely through the block kriging shortcut approach described in the paper. Note: The first column and the last two columns of Table 3 in the paper should have contained a single number each, namely, an OK estimate of 0.0317, a JK estimate of 0.0333 and a JK standard deviation of 0.0041 oz/st, respectively, for the shape, as are obvious from the text.

Jan 1, 1997

By R. Masse, J. Chameaud, J. Lafuma, R. Perraud

Estimating the risk of lung cancers for workers in uranium mines and defining the resulting dose equivalent limits have been made possible thanks to work carried out in two scientific fields : physics and epidemiology. Theoretical calculations on the basis of physical models for the former and epidemiological surveys on the mortality of uranium miners from lung cancer for the latter. However, even though considerable work has been done in these two areas, the results obtained still remain controversial on several points. The radioactive and physical instability of the aerosols present in the atmosphere of the mines and the biological complexity of the human lung which even the most sophisticated physical models can reproduce only very schematically have often proved to be insurmountable difficulties for physicists, explaining the uncertainties which subsist concerning the dose delivered to the various parts of the respiratory tract from the air breathed by miners during their work. Epidemiological investigations on the other hand, in spite of the high quality of the surveys carried out, remain open to criticism, essentially because of the very approximative estimation of the individual occupational exposure to radon daughters. This is due to the fact that uncertainties arise from the measurement of radon gas if the state of equilibrium with the daughters is not accurately known or, if the active deposit is measured, to the fact that these measurements are insufficient in number. The controversies and discrepancies which subsist with regard to the evaluation of the level of risk, and in particular for low doses, can thus be understood. In addition, epidemiological surveys cannot dissociate the carcinogenic action of radon from the synergistic or potentiating actions of tabacco and of other pollutants present in uranium mine air. Animal experiments have been largely taken into account for evaluating the toxicity of various radionuclides. This type of experiment is necessary when human data do not exist and has provided us with much information. For instance, the relative biological effectiveness of the various types of radiation, the metabolism of radionuclides and the mechanisms of cancer induction have been approached and satisfactorily resolved in this way. Concerning radon and its daughters, however, animal experiments have been used very little even though it seems apparent that they should complement epidemiological studies. For instance, whereas doubt can be cast on the data obtained from human epidemiology because of the uncertainty concerning the individual exposure of miners, those drawn from experiments are indisputable because in this case the dose is as perfectly known as the effect. In addition, the effects of radon can experimentally be appreciated separately whereas in the surveys, they cannot be dissociated from the effects of the other pollutants in the mine. Finally, there are no other means of dealing with the mechanisms of cancer induction. In order to gain any useful knowledge from this method however, the experimental model must necessarily present certain methodological guarantees and the effects seen in the animals must enable a comparison with those which appear in man. For this reason we will present here the animal model we have been using for 15 years, and will give the results obtained and compare them with human data and made a synthesis. Finally the conclusions which can be drawn will be discussed as well as their limitations with respect to the protection of uranium miners. I - MATERIAL AND METHODS Male SPF Sprague-Dawley rats were used. At the onset of the inhalations they were around 3 months old. Their small size makes it possible to expose a large number of animals at the same time. Their life-span is long enough to be able to follow the evolution of the cancers and to estimate the latency time. Finally, they present the advantage of having a very low rate of spontaneous lung cancers (SANDERS, 1979). I.1 - Three inhalation techniques were used. 1.1.1. – [Inhalation of radon decay products.] The inhalation apparatus has been described previously (CHAMEAUD et al. 1971). The first experiments utilized a room of a half cubic meter linked to a source made up of high grade uranium ore. Later on, a large installation was built with a 10 m3 inhalation chamber making it possible to expose up to 500 rats at one time at radon concentrations ranging from 100 to 10 000 WL for variable lengths of time (1 to 10 hours per day). These concentrations are higher than those to which the miners are generally exposed, but in order for the cumulated doses in man and in animal to be similar and delivered for the same fraction of their respective life-spans, the ratio of the concentrations should be approximately that of the life-spans. The concentrations of radon and its daughters during the experiments were carefully controlled thanks to multiple samplings of radon gas associated with measurements of radon decay products. I.1.2 – [ The dust inhalation chamber] has already been described : it is a dust-loading chamber where the dust content remains constant during the experiment and can hold over 20 - 30 animals (PERRAUD et al, 1970). I.1.3 – [Tobacco inhalations] take place in a smoke box

Jan 1, 1981

By Paul D. Tomlingson

Editor's note: This is the second of two articles on maintenance. Part one: "Downsizing maintenance to improve performance: Defining the downsizing task," appeared in the September issue of MINING ENGINEERING, pp. 1065-1066. Part one explained that downsizing must he an organizational change in which the mine moves to a more efficient, smaller maintenance organization. But the new, smaller organization must operate more productively. Determine initial reduction targets Reduce the workload - The initial reduction target can be determined by projecting manpower reduction as a result of discontinuing or deferring work. Start these reductions by not replacing personnel who retire or are disabled. Observe the right craft mix during this initial reduction. Improve productivity - Further reductions can come from better productivity. But achieving the higher productivity level will require a year or more. During this transition, the efficiencies of a well-defined program and a team organization must take hold.

Jan 1, 1994

By P. Ollivier

A comparative study on potential refractory ore processing techniques was launched at the BRGM to enable exploitation of numerous small deposits of arsenopyrite and antimony sulphide ores.

Jan 1, 1998

By Thomas Van Riper

Newmont Mining Corporation started as one man's investment vehicle. William Boyce Thompson, Newmont's founder, was already a millionaire many times when he incorporated his existing Newmont company in Delaware in 1921. The initial stake in the company was $8 million in capital contributed by Thompson and several close associates. In its infancy the company was truly a holding company. It did not operate or manage any properties. This situation changed drastically over time. By 1939 Newmont was actively mining 12 gold mines in North America. The following year, the first copper mine that Newmont ever managed directly, came into full production in South Africa. The period after World War I1 was a glorious one for Newmont. Plato Malozemoff took the helm of the company, and expanded its operations over the next 30 years into copper in Arizona, oil and gas in the U.S. and the North Sea, into domestic coal and thankfully, into significant gold operations.

Jan 1, 1989

By Gary E. Geiger

laboratory studies were performed to assess the calcium carbonate inhibition performance of phsophonates and polymeric dispersants at high hardness and high pH conditions. Based on the results of these studies, a new calcium carbonate treatment program was developed that shows excellent Inhibition characteristics and Is not sensitive to calcium hardness.

Jan 1, 1998

By C. W. Schultz

The Mineral Resources Institute at The University of Alabama is engaged in a program whose objective is to develop a beneficiation system for Eastern oil shales. Prior experience (1,2) at The University had shown that the grind required for liberation of the oil rich kerogen was substantially below 20~m. Based on this fact and the rapidly emerging consensus that column flotation is the preferred method for ultrafine particle separation, efforts were focused on the column flotation of oil shale. This paper, which must be regarded as a progress report on a continuing MRI project, describes the observations made and the results achieved to date. The investigation is being conducted in two phases. The first phase has been completed and consisted of a factorially designed experiment conducted for the purpose of screening a set of primary flotation variables. The second phase, which is still in progress, is focused on optimization of the operating conditions and development of a flowsheet for specific shales.

Jan 1, 1989

By K. A. Eriksson

Over 25 years ago, SKEGA pioneered the use of rubber linings in grinding mills and rubber is today widely accepted and almost standard material chosen for Regrind -and Secondary Mills. There are, however, only a few Primary Mills in operation with "solid" rubber linings because available materials and designs are often not cost efficient in comparison with steel alloys on a cost per ton basis and/or downtime for liner replacement would be too high.

Jan 1, 1988

By Luther J. Russell

Mineral development in South Dakota is aggressively encouraged by both state statute and county ordinances. Yet, an increasingly conservative philosophy is taking hold, resulting in expanded regulatory controls and concomitant increases in direct and indirect costs to permit and operate a mining operation. This paper examines the hidden costs associated with protracted permitting timeframes, land buy-outs, attorney's fees, etc., associated with the increasing emphasis for stiff controls on mineral development in South Dakota.

Jan 1, 1998

By Patricia Petty

If enthusiasm is a requirement, the coordinator of the Total Concept program is a dynamic, exciting leader with a lot of potential to keep the program a vital and progressive effort for many years. Art Meyer is entering his third year as the leader of the Total Concept. He is using his years of experience in the industry to emphasize the basics required for the course, and has also instituted new programs. Meyer began his career, after graduation from CSM as geological engineer in 1950, with St. Joe Lead. He held other responsible positions with Amax and Rocky Mountain Energy. He can answer any questions that may crop up or find the right resource person for those questions. Additions to the 18-year-old curriculum instituted since Meyer became coordinator are the study of industrial minerals and strategic minerals. The industrial minerals portion of the course includes visits to a major sand and gravel operation, in addition to lectures on the subject. Much of the strategic minerals requires study and lectures, since Colorado is not a big production state in these commodities. How does the director arrive at new additions or deletions to the program? "It's very simple," he says. "We listen to questions posed by the students, recommendations by industry people who know what is important, and feed-back from course alumni." Alumni feedback from this course has been extremely gratifying, according to Meyer. Other ideas are constantly surfacing, ideas that will be implemented as time and resources permit. One of the most gratifying results of the Total Concept program from an alumnus was the development of a complete teacher and student package by John Christiansen, a teacher at Cherry Creek High School near Denver. The course so excited Christiansen that he envi¬sioned an energy and minerals course to fill a perceived gap in science education on the high school level. The draft package was so attractive that it was sponsored and the publication costs guaranteed by the Society of Mining Engineers. Today, under the leadership of the Mineral Information Institute, the package is in use in several states and has gained enthusiastic acceptance. Other alumni have launched their efforts to broaden the scope of the existing science education by instituting courses or special seminars. One recent alumnus, Dick Will, class of 1984, who was sponsored by the Denver Mining Club, is conducting a science seminar based on his experiences with the Total Concept program. Meyer will be speaking at this seminar, as well as other industry speakers from the SME GEM Committee Speaker's Bureau. Jane Dianich, another alumna, brought her students at Kent Country Day school, also near Denver, into the mainstream of resource education by taking them on abbreviated field trips similar to those she experienced while in the program. She also has been a vocal supporter of the organization and available to speak to other teachers on the value of the experience. George Wright, of the Lake School and a second sponsoree of the Denver Mining Club, admits he came into the program because the six credit hours given toward his continuing education requirement were attractive. He then stayed on to become an ardent advocate of the mining industry. In his own words, "I'm a convert." Wright has developed a slide presentation and has lectured to teachers and students as well as presenting his views to the Denver Mining Club. He has also indicated a willingness to participate with other organizations who need speakers. The value of these speakers and teachers is obvious, according to Meyer. "They represent a respected segment of the public and are not too `tainted' by association with an industry that is too often under criticism from various groups. They represent, in effect, a citizen's advocacy of the industry, which is an invaluable asset to us all." One of Meyer's concerns about the program is that the out-of-state student rate attendance is declining. He is hoping that more AIME sections around the country will become involved in the scholarship program of the Total Concept. Total cost is about $1200 per student. "The rewards to their sections could be tremendous, with the same kind of participation we get here with speakers, citizen advocates, and interested persons," he said. Teachers say that the course improves their teaching and knowledge in a number of subjects including biology, history, economics, career planning, environmental data, science, math, geography, physics, and chemistry. The recent interest in hazardous waste management has sharpened the desire to learn more about this. And Meyer foresees another segment of the course to emphasize this subject. "One of the most valuable resources we have is the field trip program. The course would probably be meaningless without this opportunity to get out into the field where these folks can see what actually happens. George Wright, for example, was amazed at the very small amount of area actually involved in the mining operation - something contrary to what he had heard in the past." The 45 students are taken by van on eight trips, one each week, and the long trip to Colorado's Western Slope. During this long adventure, the students visit underground mines, including CSM's Edgar, open-cut and underground coal mines, precious metals mines, and oil shale properties. They also have opportunities to meet with mine personnel at each of these stops. These field trips fill another function. Living together and exchanging ideas helps the teachers come up with new concepts for the classroom work - expanding their horizons. "As long as we have a mining industry, this effort will continue to grow," Meyer said, "and will fulfill a need within the public education and public relations area of the industry. We need the support. I have dozens of comments from teachers who attest to the value of this program. They understand. The mining industry must continue to do its part."

Jan 3, 1986

By David Humphreys

Assumptions about future commodity prices need to be made with close regard to the purposes for which they are being used. Prices generated for financial planning or trading purposes are unlikely to be suitable for the longer run purposes of project evaluation and reserve estimation. In this latter context, price assumptions need to be realistic, stable and rooted in a rigorous fundamental analysis of long run industry drivers. Amongst the factors to be considered in such analysis are price history, production costs and structural dynamics. It is also important that prices adopted are consistent with other information being used by a company in its decision-making.

Jan 1, 2003