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By D. Symonds, A. J. Richins, M. G. Nelson

Mining activities at Kennecott and Park City are similar in that both districts began operation in the last half of the 18th century, and both operated on a large scale for many years. However, they are different for two important reasons. First, the mines in the Park City district were always underground. The city of Park City was above many of those mine workings. It remained in place after mining activity stopped, and as the town became an up-scale ski resort, property values increased and the tailings dumps became desirable building sites. In contrast, Kennecott eventually became an open pit mine, and the growing pit effectively consumed many of the small towns that had grown up around the underground workings. Even towns on the periphery of the open pit were razed to allow for the disposal of mine overburden. Second, almost all mining activity stopped in Park City in the early 1970s, just as the first rigorous environmental legislation in the United States was enacted. (The Ontario mine operated sporadically until 1982.) Many mine structures, waste dumps, tailings ponds and piles, and tunnels were simply abandoned as the mining companies ceased business or were bought out. Kennecott, on the other hand, has been in continuous operation for more than 120 years, so a closure plan hasn’t been finalized. Nonetheless, environmental and social problems have arisen, and the company has had to address them.

Mar 2, 2022

By E. Gallestey, D. Groenveld, F. Kolb, M. Rozou

"Recent copper price evolution pushes modern mining industry even harder to achieve highest production with maximum efficiency. Operations are bound by numerous contractual and environmental conditions that bring a high degree of complexity to both the operators controlling the process and the plant managers assessing the circuit’s potential and setting the production goals.Advanced process control (APC) for grinding is one important tool to operate this most energy intense area in an optimal way, finding the optimal trade-offs between highest throughput, energy efficiency and product quality based on variable ore properties, production targets and management priorities.ABB’s state of the art control and optimization software platform enables user to design a controller based on model predictive control (MPC). The paper and the presentation show the technology used and the results achieved through an APC controller installed in a pilot project in Aitik (Boliden SA), Sweden. Furthermore, possibilities to interconnect grinding with other areas as stockpile management and flotation with various interconnected APC controllers will be shown. Finally, an example of the return on investment and the payback times based on the increased throughput and better product quality will be presented.INTRODUCTIONDepending on the ore characteristics and the targeted plant capacity, the design of the grinding circuit may vary significantly. Typically, the circuit consists of several mills (rod, ball, SAG, AG) in series and/or parallel with a number of classifiers and sumps at appropriate locations (see Figure 1).The main goal of the grinding section is to reduce the ore particle size to a level that enables efficient separation between gangue and precious metals in the subsiding processing step. The trade-off between quality and quantity has to be made. At the same time, it is also crucial to execute this process at the lowest possible energy and grinding media consumption."

Jan 1, 2015

By Brendan Demich, Joseph McGuire, Emily J. Haas

Near misses recorded and reported by workers can provide awarenessto the potential causes of injury and prompt safety management initiatives. Although most companies require near-miss reporting, it is unclear what the value of these reports are, if any, and how they influence subsequent actions or controls to reduce on-the-job risks. Researchers at the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) conducted a case study with an aggregates company in which near-miss reports were analyzed at each of their locations over an entire quarter during the summer of 2018. Within that quarter, workers recorded 249 near misses. Of those, 167 were valid near misses that occurred at work. Researchers coded the reports using a qualitative 5 × 5 risk matrix. Of the 167 near misses, 19% were deemed low risk, 25% moderate risk, 30% high risk, and 26% critical risk. Several patterns in the near-miss incidents were documented, including classification of incidents and common corrective actions referenced (i.e., elimination/substitution, engineering control or redesign, work process/procedures, and personal protective equipment). The analysis provides insight into ways that risk communication and management programs can be improved to reengage workers and their situational awareness on the job.

By M. Dupuis

Recently, a new approach to controlling alumina feeding in a H.H. cell has been proposed [1, 2 and 3]. This approach, labeled In Situ aluminium cell control, is based on a correlation between the slope of the cell voltage during a no feed observation period and the dissolved alumina concentration in the bath. Once the dissolved alumina concentration has been estimated, a primary calibration surface uniquely relating the dissolved alumina concentration and the anode-cathode-distance (ACD) to the cell voltage is used to estimate the cell ACD. Once both the alumina concentration and the ACD have been estimated at the end of the observation period, a PID controller can be used to regulate the rate of alumina feeding using only the normalized cell voltage to calculate the error between the estimated dissolved alumina concentration and a target value. The In Situ aluminium cell control algorithm has now been tested with the Dyna/Marc [4, 5 and 6] cell simulator demonstrating that it should be possible to control a H.H. cell in this manner with less variation in the dissolved alumina concentration and other process variables producing a prediction of improved cell current efficiency and power efficiency.

Jan 1, 2011

By G. R. Hopkins

According to the annual refinery-capacity survey of the Bureau of Mines, the number of refineries in the United States showed little change in 1940, increasing from 057 the first of the year to 562 at the close. Although a number of plants were dismantled in Texas and other States, more than compensating gains were made in California, Illinois, and other States. Low gasoline prices, competition for crude-oil supplies, particularly in Illinois, and the termination of a favorable distributing arrangement for independent plants in the Los Angeles area, forced about 50 refineries to close down in 1940. The number of operating plants accordingly declined from 461 on January 1, 1940 to 420 on January 1, 1941 and the number of idle plants increased from 86 to 136 in the same period. These developments were also reflected in the capacity data, the operating capacity declining from 4,196,694 barrels daily on January 1, 1940 to 4,180,588 daily on January I, 1941 and the idle capacity rising from 431,952 barrels to 53g8381 barrels in the same period. However, the completed capacity on January 1, 1941 (4,718,969 barrels daily) was 2 percent above the previous year.

Jan 1, 1941

For the purposes of this discussion it is assumed that contributors should express the thoughts that arise from their personal experience. So wide is the range of mineral deposits, and so varied the methods employed in their discovery and development, that no two geologists are likely to have been impressed with the same applications of their science. The author's own personal experience has been, during recent years at least, very largely concerned with the broader aspects of the employment of scientific method and geological knowledge to the problems of exploration and exploitation, for the guidance of the general public and governmental authority rather than of mine executives and directors. The view-point thus reached is likely to differ in many respects from that of men who are much more intimately concerned with the mining problems of a single metal or a single mining field, and for this reason a statement may perhaps supplement those from others whose experience has been markedly different.It may well happen that, at some not distant date in the future, when systematic and comprehensive instruction in economic geology is embodied in the courses- prescribed for mining engineers during their years of training, the author's comments will be quitesuperfluous; but at the present time they appear to him to call for expression.The Need for Training of Mining Men in Economic Geology.Contact over a period of many years with mining men who have had different kinds of training and experience has been convincing that there is a general reluctance to acquire a full rational understanding of the geological factors involved in exploratory and developmental problems. The correction of this attitude is regarded as vital to the industry and it is necessary to insist that the outstanding requirement of the present day is the utilization of all branches of geological, investigation in the field and the laboratoryby men who have had systematic and specialized training in these matters. The science of geology is many-sided, but is, nevertheless, whole and essentially indivisible. No one can afford to disregard any fraction of its content 'or any of its methods of investigation.The greatest advances have been made in the understarnding of the occurrence of mineral deposits by those whose knowledge Qfbasal principles, has been soundest, whose endeavour has been to ascertain all their relationships in space and time, whose attention to detail of all kinds has been keenest, and at the same time, whose capability to distinguish between major and minor features has been most marked.With the passage of the years and the accumulation of data from many lands, it has been possible to build up a great body of information regarding the primary deposition and secondary alteration of mineral occurrences, which is of the utmost value in guiding thesearch for new deposits to take the place of those that become exhausted. This heritage is due not only to the efforts of gifted in...

Jan 1, 1950

By D. Brady

There are many examples, historical and recent, from the underground coal mining industry where during emergency response the response and ultimately the outcomes, could have been significantly improved if adequate systems had been in place for the collection and management of relevant information preceding the incident, the acquisition of information during the incident and the use of the information for risk mitigation and decision making purposes. The subject and process of knowledge management is possibly the most critical for would be rescuers of endangered coal mine workers, as it has been demonstrated at numerous coal mine incidents that a lack of or mismanagement of crucial information can be fatal for both the rescuer and/or the endangered coal mine worker. This paper will underline the scope and importance of robust knowledge management systems for emergency response within the underground coal mining industry and the process by which it is being achieved within the Queensland Mines Rescue Service and the NSW Mines Rescue Service.

Jan 1, 2012

Over 500 industrial, academic, and government representatives from Europe, Canada, and the United States attended the first large symposium ever held in this country on fly ash utilization and technology, March 14-16, 1967, at Pittsburgh, Pa. Sponsored by the Edison Electric Institute, the National Coal Association, and the Bureau of Mines, the symposium featured 27 formal presentations by leading reports from the United States and Europe on all major phases of fly ash production, utilization, and research. Representing the three sponsoring organizations were Edison Electric Institute, James D. William- son, The Dayton Power and Light Co.; National Coal Association, James R. Garvey, Bituminous Coal Research, Inc; and Bureau of Mines, Harry Perry. Symposium chairman was John H. Faber of the Bureau of Mines. Gerard C. Gambs, Consolidation Coal Co., addressed the opening session. Moderated by Mr. Garvey, President and Director of Research of Bituminous Coal Research, Inc., the opening session was devoted to a discussion of the nature of the fly ash problem, including availability, specifications, and limitations on its use. Subsequent sessions covered Fly ash marketing, fly ash utilization in concrete and masonry products, specialized uses, and recent developments in basic fly ash research. Others serving as session chairmen were Oscar E. Manz, Associate Professor of Civil Engineering, University of North Dakota; Mrs. Katharine Mather, Chief, Petrography and X-ray Section, Concrete Division, U.S. Army Engineers Waterways Experiment Station; Mr. Williamson, and Mr. Perry.

Jan 1, 1967

By Y. Sasseville

"Niobec has been using vibrating screens and screw classifiers as a double stage classification in its grinding circuit since the very beginning of its operation in St-Honoré. Most of the other mineral processing plants around the world uses cyclones as the classification device in their grinding circuit. The difference between these two methods are well known in terms of capital cost and grinding efficiency but the differences in terms of the impact on the downstream processing stages are a lot harder to predict and are case specific. In the interest of lowering the capital cost of a future expansion project, Niobec decided to test the cyclones in its actual grinding circuit and evaluate their impact on the recovery of the downstream processing stages as well as the operating cost of the mill. We switched between cyclones and screens for 8 month in 2013 and early 2014 and we are now operating only with cyclones since march 2014.INTRODUCTIONThe Niobec mine and concentrator were built in the mid 70’s and at that time, the mill was processing 1 500 tons per day. Over the years, many expansion projects have brought the plant to 7 000 tons per day. Throughout the initial concentrator design and commissioning, screens have been chosen over cyclones because of their higher classification efficiency which is known to reduce variability and limit the fine generation especially due to a high undersize classification efficiency. Just like many other plants, fine particle generation is a major problem at Niobec because of its negative effect on downstream processing stages. In the interest of lowering the capital cost of a future expansion project, Niobec’s engineering team decided, 35 years later, to test the cyclones in its actual grinding circuit and evaluate their actual impact on the final recovery and the operating cost of the mill.The grinding circuit is separated in two lines which will be called Circuit #1 and Circuit #2 along this paper. Circuit #1 is, as you can see in Figure 1, composed of a rod mill and two parallel ball mills in closed circuit with screens and screw classifiers. The screens oversize are sent to the screw classifiers while the undersize are sent to the next processing stage. The screw classifiers overflow are both sent back to the pump box while their oversize streams return in their corresponding ball mills for further grinding. Circuit #2 is, as you can see in Figure 1, quite the same as Circuit #1 except it has only one set of screw classifier and ball mill. Figure 1 also shows the modification in arrangement each circuits went through to integrate the new cyclones. One of the ball mills in Circuit #1 now appears dotted because it can still be used but is not now"

Jan 1, 2015

By A. W. Ambrose

The output or oil and gas rrom the producing fields in the United States is rapidly deelining. Coincident with this decline is a steadily increasing demand ror petroleum and its products, but at present there are no commercial substitutes ror gasoline and lubricating oil. Undoubtedly, many new fields will be discovered in this country during the next rew years. Indeed, there may be periods or temporary flush production that ror a rew months or a year or perhaps two years will afford a surplus. Such peaks are temporary and should not be given too much weight in considering the relation between petroleum supply and our national lire. In considering this problem we must regard a long period or time, and, ir we do that we shall see that domestic production will be unable to keep pace with consumption. Hence, the public good demands t~at the highest efficiency obtainable be practiced in the production or oil. To accomplish this end, the operator or to-day should so organize his rorces ror development and production that he recovers every barrel or oil that can be recovered at a profit. This necessarily involves the use or eeonomical and scientific methods or development a:nd production and the elimination or waste. The Bureau or Mines has ror years urged the conservation or petroleum and its products, and has pointed out that -such conservation should start before the oil is brought to the surface rather than arter it is in storage tanks. Losses or petroleum underground have undoubtedly been rar greater than losses in storage, in transportation, and in refining. The quantity lost usually is indeterminate, and hence difficult to express in terms or money, but by remembering that entire oil fields have been ruined by invadIng waters some idea may be gained or the importance or underground waste. The petroleum engineer is coming to be recognized as an extremely important aid in the intelligent development or oil fields. In this paper an effort is made to outline ror the engineer and producer a field or work whereby science and engineering not only can but have been applied practically. The mining engineer has been the direct- ing hand in the development of mines, and it is being recognized more and more that the petroleum engineer has a similar function in developing oil properties. Thispaper aims to show the general method of procedure in studying underground conditions in producing oil fields and how such study may not only correct but even prevent great unnecessary losses. Such work provides the company with maximum insurance for the field against loss and is accompliphed at minimum cost and minimum risk. Throughout the paper reference is made to oil wells and oil fields, but to a certain degree many of the suggestions relating to oil wells are applicable in the care and protection of gas wells and in solving gas problems.

Jan 1, 1921

A unity of viewpoint emerged from the workshop. The concept that transmission is via characteristic modes was a common theme in many of the presentations. Also, the confusion an the meaning of monofilar and bifilar to describe these dominant modes was cleared up. But, there was still a healthy divergence of opinion on what constitutes an optimum system. It was generally agreed that further analytical and experimental work is definitely needed. In particular, it was stressed that independent measurements of the constitutive properties of the electromagnetic environment are needed. Also, there was considerable concern that laboratory measurements of rock samples could lead to misleading results for the effective conductivities. Also, there was a general recognition that over simplified propagation theory should not be used to interpret field data. From a theoratical and practical point of view, it was realized that mode coupling plays a vital role in the transmission channel. One must not only understand which and how many propagation modes are excited by the transmitting antenna, but the conversion of energy from one mode type to another must be accounted for. This conversion can either be done intentionally (by fixed mode convertors) or non intentionally (by random wall roughness). In fact, mode conversion can be quite complicated when various propagation paths exist such as when insulated cables, leaky feeders, grounded rails, coal seams, etc. all convey portions of the electromagnetic energy. However, this state of affairs should be regared as an. opportunity for extended communication coverage in mines rather than a limitation of a desig. procedure based on preconceived notions of the dominant propagation mechanism.

Jan 1, 1978

By C. O’Hara, S. Roy, K. Swedburg, J. Katchen

"New Gold Inc.’s New Afton concentrator commenced operation in June 2012, producing a copper-gold-silver concentrate. During the first two years of operation, various optimization efforts have improved mill throughput, recoveries and concentrate grade. Daily mill throughput has increased 20% above the design rate. This was achieved through more consistent instantaneous feed rate and size distribution from the mine reclaim stockpile, higher pebble crusher reliability, changes to the SAG and ball mill grinding media sizes, larger SAG grate openings, reduced SAG discharge screen-deck aperture size and an increase in the maximum ball mill power draw limit. Metal recoveries at New Afton are primarily limited by liberation in the coarser size fractions; therefore, improving the grind size at a given mill throughput has been the main means of improving recovery. The average rougher flotation feed F80 size was reduced from 175µm in Q1 2013 to 165µm in Q1 2014, while the average operating mill throughput increased by 25%. Other flotation circuit changes focusing on recovery improvement include the addition of froth crowders to the rougher cells and the use of a stronger frother. The average concentrate grade increased from 22% Cu in Q1 2013 to 25% Cu in Q1 2014. This was achieved by redirecting the flash flotation concentrate stream to the regrind circuit and by the addition of lime to the cleaner circuit.This paper describes the above improvements made at the New Afton mill. The paper describes the objectives, timing and end result of each area of improvement.IntroductionThe New Afton Mine is situated approximately 10km west of Kamloops, British Columbia, 340km north-east of Vancouver. The mine has a moderate climate, access to transportation and electrical infrastructure, nearby fresh water supply, and close proximity to industrial and mining service businesses. The population of Kamloops is around 90,000 with most mine employees living in or around the city."

Jan 1, 2015

By B. R. Broekman, K. J. R. Ford

Over the last decade significant development and use has been made of a simulation model that describes the HCFeMn smelting operations in Assmang Ltd. This spreadsheet based, semi-empirical, predictive model is derived from data from the submerged arc furnaces at Assmang?s Cato Ridge, KwaZulu-Natal smelter site. Departures from the empirical base case mass balance due to changes in the ores, reductant feeds and operating parameters are accounted for by use of fundamental relationships and heuristic type ratios which are applied in an iterative manner in the model. The model performs a sequential set of calculations to iteratively converge on a fully consistent mass and energy balance solution, which predicts Mn alloy and slag output masses and compositions for a given set of feeds. 440 MWh per operating day is used as the basis of energy input. The paper describes the key model components, assumptions made and calculation approach. Added to the mass and energy balance is a cost and revenue balance, which allows prediction of the economic performance for each simulation. Substantial use of the model has been made in simulating the performance of the current Assmang HCFeMn furnaces for both smelter investigations and future production planning. The model has also been a valuable tool in the strategic analysis of the use of future Mn ores and has formed the vital link between mine ore grades (metal and slag elements) and the expected alloy output, grade and profitability. Additionally, the model has been used in benchmarking exercises to predict other Mn smelting operations with remarkable accuracy. The paper highlights some aspects of the approaches taken in using the model to benchmark Assmang?s own furnace performance and cost competitiveness with other producers. For Assmang the development and application of this modelling technology has led to transformation in understanding of the Assmang HCFeMn furnace operations and increased awareness of the potential of its Mn ore bodies.

Jan 1, 2004

By A. Halim, A. Martikainen, S. GYAMFI

This paper outlines a unique case of the development of strategies to reduce ventilation and heating costs in Konsuln iron ore mine in northern Sweden. The mine, located just south of Luossavaara-Kiirunavaara Aktiebolag’s Kiruna iron ore mine, was developed as a test mine from 2018-2020 for the Sustainable Underground Mining (SUM) project. Besides functioning as a test mine, Konsuln also contributes to ore production. The existing mine ventilation system was designed for the current production rate of 0.8 million tons per annum (Mtpa). There is a plan to increase this rate to between 1.8 and 2.0 Mtpa.

Sep 30, 2021

By D. Rahal

All ores have an economic optimum particle size (Wills and Napier-Munn, 2006). This optimum value is often a compromise between the need to achieve adequate liberation for the efficient separation and recovery of valuable minerals and the energy consumed by the crushing and grinding process. It has been recognized for nearly three decades that grinding is the most expensive and least efficient stage in mineral processing (El-shall and Somasundaran, 1984). At that time it was estimated that grinding consumed between 25 and 70% of the total power required in mineral processing. This recognition drove the development of new stirred mill fine grinding technology in the 1990s (Jankovic et.al, 2003; Enderle et. al., 1997; Massey, 2008). These milling technologies have a reduced energy consumption compared to traditional fine grinding using ball mills. In the ?coarser? fine grinding applications this improvement is approximately 30%. The benefits increase to above 50% in ultrafine grinding applications (Lichter and Davey, 2006). Despite these gains, the US Department of Energy reported that an additional energy savings of up to 37% is possible in the minerals industry. They identified continuing research and development and implementing best practices in both grinding and materials handling as the primary avenues for the additional reduction (BCS, 2007).

Jan 1, 2011

By A. Tylczak, C. Norman, C. Shook, S. Loif

"There are a lot of good reasons to manage energy use at mining operations. Optimizing process energy use reduces operating costs. Tracking energy use can help identify unplanned process changes or malfunctioning equipment early, which allows problems to be corrected promptly.Sacré-Davey Engineering in Vancouver has performed over 50 Energy Management studies for various industries including: mining, pulp and paper, oil and gas, etc. Energy Management programs can be used to identify energy reduction opportunities, assess project feasibility, complete equipment selection trade-offs, as well as to monitor and manage energy costs. Benefits of energy management programs are reduced energy costs, reduced maintenance, and increased plant automation. Additionally, energy management can provide access to utility incentive funding and quantify savings which can greatly improve the return on investment of potential projects.Energy management studies are funded by many Utility programs across Canada. There are various programs available for existing plants energy audits, project feasibility studies, new plant design reviews and energy monitoring and targeting, etc. There are capital incentives available which can significantly reduce payback period.This paper discusses how energy management can be used to support mill/mine operations groups, maintenance programs, as well as expansion or green field projects. This paper will also provide an overview of Canadian Utility companies programs and how they can assist mining companies.IntroductionThere are a lot of good reasons to manage energy use at mining operations. Optimizing process energy use reduces operating costs. Tracking energy use can help identify unplanned process changes and identify malfunctioning equipment early, which allows problems to be corrected promptly."

Jan 1, 2015

By Jeffery L. Kohler

This final report on Bureau of Mines Contract J0338028 presents the results of a research effort to predict incipient failure in electric-power-system components. The development of continuous monitoring techniques to detect an incipient failure would represent a significant improvement in system maintainability, availability and safety, This report describes the analytical and experimental aspects of the project. Mathematical models have been developed to study the behavior of cables and motors which are undergoing a deterioration process. These models allow a detailed study of the effect of deterioration on the component's terminal characteristics and performance. The efficacy of using negative-sequence monitoring is a reliable indication of deterioration has been established. Techniques for assessing the sensitivity of the prediction algorithm to component deterioration have been presented. An approach for modelling electrically-excited vibrations, and including these in the algorithm, has been presented.

Jan 1, 1987

By H. A. Doerner

"The following report is submitted, in compliance with the request made by the Honorable W. H. Sproule, Chairman of the Committee on Mines and Mining, to the Director of the United States Bureau of Mines, that the bureau investigate the most modern processes for the production of radium from its ores. A thorough search of technical publications and patent office files was made. Outstanding authorities on the subject as well as persons claiming novel or secret methods were interviewed.Unlike most other elements, it is not possible for radium to occur naturally in a pure or concentrated form. This is because radium is one of a series of unstable elements which, by a constant, spontaneous, atomic disintegration, change from one element to the next in the series. Uranium is the ""grandparent"" of radium. The rates at which radium atoms are ""born"" and ""die"" are so related that only one part of radium can exist in equilibrium with three million parts of uranium. Consequently radium is only found associated with uranium minerals, and the ratio of radium to uranium is never more than one to three million. Since uranium is a rather rare element, the scarcity of radium is almost beyond comprehension. Nevertheless minute traces of radium can be detected in nearly all rocks.The carnotite ores of Colorado and Utah were the chief source of radium for many years.In the fall of 1922 news of the very rich deposits of radium ore discovered in the Belgian Congo caused most complete cessation of domestic production. The Congo ore contains pitchblende and a number of alteration products, including the new minerals bequerelite, curite, krasolite, stasite, and dewindite. Reports indicate that a considerable amount of ore containing over 50 per cent uranium oxide has been produced. It seemed certain that radium could be extracted from the Conga ore at a much lower cost than from the relatively low-grade carnotite; and in order to preserve their elaborate marketing organizations, the larger American producers made agreements with the Belgian syndicate to market the foreign product in this country. The retail price of radium has been held at $70 per milligram, but large orders are filled as low as $50. Extraction of radium from carnotite by the usual methods does not appear to be profitable at that price with one exception, all American firms ceased production after their accumulated stocks of ore had been treated. The United States Radium Co., which continued to treat carnotite for several years, finally shut down its plant."

Dec 1, 1930

By AIME AIME

R. A. Hadfield, W. H. Bleckly, The Rt. Hon. Sir James Kitson, Bart., M. P.', E. Windsor Richards, E. P. Martin, Andrew Carnegie, Sir Hugh Bell, Bart., Bennett H. Brough. Patrons. Adamson, Joseph, & Co., Hyde; Aird, John, & Co., London ; .Akrill, C., & Co., Ltd., West Bromwich ; Anderson Foundry Co., Ltd.,. Port Clarence, Middlesbrough ;. Armstrong, Sir W. G., Whitworth & Co., Ltd., Newcastle-on Tyne ; As¬sociated Portland Cement Manufacturers (1900), Ltd., London; Babcock & Wilcox, Ltd., London; Baird, William, & Co., Ltd., Glasgow ; Baldwin's, Ltd., Stourport; Barclay, Andrew, Sons & Co., Ltd., Kilmarnock; Barrow Hematite Steel Co., Ltd., Barrow-in-Furness; Bayliss, Jones & Bayliss, Ltd., Wolverhampton ; Beardshaw, J., & Son, Ltd., Sheffield ; Bell Brothers, Ltd., Middlesbrough ; Bolckow, Vaughan & Co., Ltd., Middlesbrough ; Booth, Joseph, & Bros., Ltd., Leeds ; Briton Ferry Works, Ltd., Briton Ferry; Butlin, Thomas, & Co., Ltd., Wellingborough ; Butterley Co., Ltd., Alfreton ; Byrne, James, & Co., Middlesbrough; Cargo Fleet Iron Co., Ltd., Middlesbrough.;. Carnforth Hematite Iron Co., Ltd., Carnforth ; Cochrane & Co., Ltd., Middlesbrough ; Coltness Iron Co., Ltd., Glasgow ; Colville, David, & Sons, Ltd., Motherwell ; Consett Iron Co., Ltd., Consett ; Cooke, William, & Co., Ltd., Tinsley ; Craggs, R., & Sons, Ltd., Middlesbrough ; Darwen & Mostyn Iron Co., Ltd., Mostyn ; Dorman, Long & Co., Middlesbrough ; Dunlop, J., & Co., Ltd., Glasgow ; Ebbw Vale Steel, Iron & Coal Co., Ltd., Ebbw Vale ; Engineer, The, The Proprietors. of, Lon¬don ; Engineering, The Proprietors of, London ; Etna Iron & Steel Co., Mother¬well ; Farnley Iron Co., Ltd., Leeds ; Firth, Thomas, & Sons, Ltd., Sheffield ; Rather, W. T., Ltd., Sheffield ; Fraser & Chalmers, Ltd., Erith ; Frodingham Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., Doncaster; Gjers, Mills & Co., Ltd., Middlesbrough ; Glenboig Union Fire-Clay Co., Ltd., Glasgow ; Glengarnock Iron & Steel Co.; Ltd., Glengarnock ; Guest, Keen & Nettlefolds, Ltd., Birmingham ; Hadfield's Steel Foundry Co., Ltd., Sheffield ; Hall, J. & E., Ltd., Dartford ; Harkness, W.; & Sons; Ltd., Middlesbrough ; Harrison & Co., Ltd., Lincoln ; Head, Wrightson & Co., Ltd., Stockton-on-Tees ; Hill, John, & Co., Middlesbrough ; Hingley, N., & Sons, Ltd., Dudley ; Hopper, John I., Ltd., Thornaby-on-Tees; Hull Forge Iron &-Steel Co., Ltd., Hull; Iron and Coal Trades Review, The Proprietors of, London ; Ironmonger, The, The Proprietors of, London ; Jackman, Joseph, & Co., Ltd., Sheffield ; Jessop & Appleby Bros., Ltd., Leicester and London ; Jes-

Nov 1, 1906

By S H. Begg

There is strong evidence that many major oil and gas (O&G) projects are plagued by large cost and schedule overruns, or significant underperformance in productivity. Similar evidence exists for large mining projects. This paper claims that uncertainty is the underlying reason why projects fail to deliver the metrics used to justify their investment, or to deliver the economic value possible if alternative decisions had been made.Most technical and economic analyses are performed to reduce uncertainty to help make decisions. Decision-making is about ranking alternatives and choosing the best; rarely are precise predictions required, if this is even possible. Better uncertainty assessment is one of the keys to better decisions, thus better business outcomes. To get better decisions it is suggested that the focus or reward/penalty incentives be shifted away from the quality of outcomes to the quality of decisions. High-quality decisions are those that are generated from the skilled use of the tools, methodologies and processes from the discipline of decision analysis.Uncertainty is quantified by probability, which is a degree of belief in the truth/falsity of some proposition about a quantity relevant to a decision, such as volume of in-place resource, future price or action of a competitor. The probability a person ascribes to a proposition depends upon their information set; hence probability is subjective – it is not an inherent attribute of the quantity of interest or the physical system.The above simple observations have profound implications for modelling approaches, how they deal with uncertainty, the use of data to help assess uncertainty and the reliability of information provided by subject-matter experts. The limited circumstances under which frequency data (from spatial or temporal variables) can be used to assign probabilities is also reviewed.People, in general, are subject to a range of biases and cognitive errors. Research with O&G subject-matter experts shows that their expertise offers little or no protection from making errors in probability assessments and other judgements.CITATION:Begg, S H, 2016. Decisions, decisions – uncertainty, variability, modelling and psychology, in Proceedings Seventh International Conference and Exhibition on Mass Mining (MassMin 2016), pp 9–18 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

May 9, 2016