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By S H. Begg

There is strong evidence that many major oil and gas (O&G) projects are plagued by large cost and schedule overruns, or significant underperformance in productivity. Similar evidence exists for large mining projects. This paper claims that uncertainty is the underlying reason why projects fail to deliver the metrics used to justify their investment, or to deliver the economic value possible if alternative decisions had been made.Most technical and economic analyses are performed to reduce uncertainty to help make decisions. Decision-making is about ranking alternatives and choosing the best; rarely are precise predictions required, if this is even possible. Better uncertainty assessment is one of the keys to better decisions, thus better business outcomes. To get better decisions it is suggested that the focus or reward/penalty incentives be shifted away from the quality of outcomes to the quality of decisions. High-quality decisions are those that are generated from the skilled use of the tools, methodologies and processes from the discipline of decision analysis.Uncertainty is quantified by probability, which is a degree of belief in the truth/falsity of some proposition about a quantity relevant to a decision, such as volume of in-place resource, future price or action of a competitor. The probability a person ascribes to a proposition depends upon their information set; hence probability is subjective – it is not an inherent attribute of the quantity of interest or the physical system.The above simple observations have profound implications for modelling approaches, how they deal with uncertainty, the use of data to help assess uncertainty and the reliability of information provided by subject-matter experts. The limited circumstances under which frequency data (from spatial or temporal variables) can be used to assign probabilities is also reviewed.People, in general, are subject to a range of biases and cognitive errors. Research with O&G subject-matter experts shows that their expertise offers little or no protection from making errors in probability assessments and other judgements.CITATION:Begg, S H, 2016. Decisions, decisions – uncertainty, variability, modelling and psychology, in Proceedings Seventh International Conference and Exhibition on Mass Mining (MassMin 2016), pp 9–18 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

May 9, 2016

By AIME AIME

R. A. Hadfield, W. H. Bleckly, The Rt. Hon. Sir James Kitson, Bart., M. P.', E. Windsor Richards, E. P. Martin, Andrew Carnegie, Sir Hugh Bell, Bart., Bennett H. Brough. Patrons. Adamson, Joseph, & Co., Hyde; Aird, John, & Co., London ; .Akrill, C., & Co., Ltd., West Bromwich ; Anderson Foundry Co., Ltd.,. Port Clarence, Middlesbrough ;. Armstrong, Sir W. G., Whitworth & Co., Ltd., Newcastle-on Tyne ; As¬sociated Portland Cement Manufacturers (1900), Ltd., London; Babcock & Wilcox, Ltd., London; Baird, William, & Co., Ltd., Glasgow ; Baldwin's, Ltd., Stourport; Barclay, Andrew, Sons & Co., Ltd., Kilmarnock; Barrow Hematite Steel Co., Ltd., Barrow-in-Furness; Bayliss, Jones & Bayliss, Ltd., Wolverhampton ; Beardshaw, J., & Son, Ltd., Sheffield ; Bell Brothers, Ltd., Middlesbrough ; Bolckow, Vaughan & Co., Ltd., Middlesbrough ; Booth, Joseph, & Bros., Ltd., Leeds ; Briton Ferry Works, Ltd., Briton Ferry; Butlin, Thomas, & Co., Ltd., Wellingborough ; Butterley Co., Ltd., Alfreton ; Byrne, James, & Co., Middlesbrough; Cargo Fleet Iron Co., Ltd., Middlesbrough.;. Carnforth Hematite Iron Co., Ltd., Carnforth ; Cochrane & Co., Ltd., Middlesbrough ; Coltness Iron Co., Ltd., Glasgow ; Colville, David, & Sons, Ltd., Motherwell ; Consett Iron Co., Ltd., Consett ; Cooke, William, & Co., Ltd., Tinsley ; Craggs, R., & Sons, Ltd., Middlesbrough ; Darwen & Mostyn Iron Co., Ltd., Mostyn ; Dorman, Long & Co., Middlesbrough ; Dunlop, J., & Co., Ltd., Glasgow ; Ebbw Vale Steel, Iron & Coal Co., Ltd., Ebbw Vale ; Engineer, The, The Proprietors. of, Lon¬don ; Engineering, The Proprietors of, London ; Etna Iron & Steel Co., Mother¬well ; Farnley Iron Co., Ltd., Leeds ; Firth, Thomas, & Sons, Ltd., Sheffield ; Rather, W. T., Ltd., Sheffield ; Fraser & Chalmers, Ltd., Erith ; Frodingham Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., Doncaster; Gjers, Mills & Co., Ltd., Middlesbrough ; Glenboig Union Fire-Clay Co., Ltd., Glasgow ; Glengarnock Iron & Steel Co.; Ltd., Glengarnock ; Guest, Keen & Nettlefolds, Ltd., Birmingham ; Hadfield's Steel Foundry Co., Ltd., Sheffield ; Hall, J. & E., Ltd., Dartford ; Harkness, W.; & Sons; Ltd., Middlesbrough ; Harrison & Co., Ltd., Lincoln ; Head, Wrightson & Co., Ltd., Stockton-on-Tees ; Hill, John, & Co., Middlesbrough ; Hingley, N., & Sons, Ltd., Dudley ; Hopper, John I., Ltd., Thornaby-on-Tees; Hull Forge Iron &-Steel Co., Ltd., Hull; Iron and Coal Trades Review, The Proprietors of, London ; Ironmonger, The, The Proprietors of, London ; Jackman, Joseph, & Co., Ltd., Sheffield ; Jessop & Appleby Bros., Ltd., Leicester and London ; Jes-

Nov 1, 1906

By Rodrigo Toro, Mario Delisle, Claudio Zamora

"The mining market is researching innovative methods to train the workforce for mining which is normally extremely difficult to get. Thus, the dynamic simulation-based technologies become an essential pillar to educate and train the inexperienced staff at the pace required by this industry. Even if Operator Training Simulator (OTS) systems are commonly used in most of industries, knowledge transmitted to operators are unfortunately not ""capitalized"" in general. The OTS systems are usually delivered as a single hardware and software platform and very little as a full service long-term.In this article, an integrated solution to increase the efficiency of the operators is proposed. This solution is based on the combination of dynamic simulation, processes knowledge, virtual reality and the knowledge capitalization through the creation of simulation scenarios and e-learning. The Codelco Ministro Hales plant simulation project for a copper concentrator plant is presented as a real life example.IntroductionDynamic and real-time process simulation have proven to be a must in the development of greenfield projects, providing mechanisms to design and test controls design, interlocks, start-up, shut down sequences and operator training, among others (see (McMillan, 2006) for further details). Early adopters of this technology were utility power plants; in the petrochemical industry have become a standard, and in the mining industry the use of dynamic simulations is growing, especially in new projects and training of operations personnel for the adoption of best practices and new technologies, see (Nikkhah & Anderson, 2001) and (Toro, Ortiz, & Yutronic, 2012).This paper outlines a solution that utilizes dynamic simulations as the base of an integrated platform for operational effectiveness, which takes into account the current scenario of new mining projects and operations, where high turn over rates and needs of specialized workforce have given a special value to this kind of technologies."

Jan 1, 2015

By E. D. Gardner

A general survey of the mineral industries of the Black Hills is being made by the Bureau or Mines, but this report is confined to the tin deposits of that region. Because of the strategic importance of tin in a national emergency, special attention was given in the field to deposits of this metal. The present paper outlines the procedure that would be required for determining the potentialities of the most promising deposits as emergency sources of tin and gives estimates of the cost of sampling and rehabilitating some of the old tin mines. Tin mining in the Black Hill was quiescent in 1938. Tin occurs in two areas inn the region. The deposits have received considerable attention, and since 1884 numerous articles have been written about them. It is estimated that between 7 and 15 million dollars has been spent in promotion expenses, acquiring claims, development work, and equipment; production, has totaled about 160 long tons of metallic tin worth about $95,000.3/

Jan 1, 1939

By M. G. Wallis

This report presents the results of a study to develop a detailed mining method design based on longwall mining with sublevel caving. The method is applicable to low-dipping coal seams 20 or more feet thick such as are found in the western United States. The report covers (1) the development and description of the mining method, (2) evaluation of the engineering feasibility of the design, (3) estimates of productivity and recovery, and (4) an engineering cost analysis and economic feasibility evaluation of the mining method design.

Jan 1, 1977

By John G. Parker

The rare-earth elements, sometimes known as the lanthanides, comprise the series of 15 chemically similar elements with atomic numbers 57 through 71. Yttrium, with atomic number 39, is often included in the group, because its properties are similar and it more often than not occurs in association with the lanthanides. Thorium is included in this survey due to its close association with the lanthanides, particularly in the mineral monazite. The lanthanides were first recognized as elements around 1750 and were the subject of much study by chemists during the 19th century. The purely chemical methods then available failed to resolve the strange intimate relationships between these elements, and it was not until about 1920 that the full series was explained.

Jan 1, 1971

By C R. Ferrari

Residual subsidence is generally accepted as being about 5% of the total subsidence occurring within 12 months of all mining finishing. This paper looks at five case studies from different parts of the country, in various mining settings within a depth range of 430m to 760m. From a single seam single panel working to working the eleventh seam, all are within the concealed coalfield, similar to today's mining. The monitoring of subsidence continued for many years once the mining had finished and the results obtained are at considerable variance from the accepted norm. Subsidence has been found to carry on for up to eleven years after mining has ended, within a range of 8% to 45% of total subsidence. A highly significant factor was that subsidence, as a whole, was generally much more than predicted. The residual subsidence aspect has to he viewed in this context and in order to debate the subject at length, the causes of residual subsidence have to be balanced against the apparent inability to accurately predict subsidence. The results from the case studies were similar, even though the mining settings differed considerably. Subsidence of around 10% to 20% continued for several years after mining had ceased.

Jan 7, 1997

A compilation of papers presented at The Second WVU Conference on Coal Mine E1ectrotechnology in Morgantown, West Virginia on June 12 -14, 1974. Papers cover areas of electric power, electronic communications, detection and location of trapped miners, and electronic sensors and monitoring systems.

Jan 1, 1974

By R. K. Guthrie, H. B. Hill

"INTRODUCTION The Rodessa oil field in Marion and Cass Counties, Tex., Miller County, Ark., and Caddo Parish, La., was discovered in August 1930, when a well drilled to a depth of 5,506 feet in Caddo Parish, close to the surface trace of the Rodessa fault, produced gas in commercial quantities. During the next 5 years 21 gas wells were drilled, and a large reserve of natural gas was developed in the high part of the Rodessa structure underlying the Massive Anhydrite member of the Glen Rose formation.In July 1935 oil was discovered on the flank of the structure when a well drilled to 6,048 feet also in Caddo Parish, was completed as an oil well. The discovery of oil in the Rodessa structure initiated art intensive development program of more than usual interest to geologists, engineers, and operators in the petroleum and natural-gas industry. The complex nature of the different reservoirs, the large volume of ""free"" gas under high pressures and temperatures in the upper part of the reservoirs, and the high gas:oil ratios of some of the wells during the early production of oil presented many problems the solution of which taxed the ingenuity of those responsible for the development and exploitation of the Rodessa field.Early waste of gas and resultant dissipation of reservoir energy led to State intervention, which brought about effective regulation of the quantity of gas blown to the air. Oil production from wells producing more than 2.000 cubic feet of gas per barrel of oil was restricted, and oil allowables generally were based equally upon acreage and upon reservoir pressures. Consequently, oil-production statistics of the field are closely associated with gas:oil ratios and reservoir pressures.The primary object of this report is to present factual and statistical data on well performance in the Rodessa field and to show established trends under certain operating methods and practices in high-pressure gaseous reservoirs, which have been carefully developed and outlined by modern technique and exploited under close engineering supervision.The large size of the Rodessa field, it’s fairly well defined gas caps, and a somewhat definite water table in a part- of the oil- and gas-producing region are of special interest and importance in a study of the fluid and energy relationships in reservoirs. Consequently, the results of much of the authors' work in collecting and compiling date are presented in the form of tables, maps and cross sections to show the relative thicknesses of the different oil-and gas-producing members and their permeability and porosity relationships, and, when possible, the variations in stratigraphy are exhibited in cross sections. Results of a detailed analysis of cores from a number of wells also are presented in tabular and graphic form."

Aug 1, 1943

By W. T. Adams

The production of natural abrasives var¬ied in quantity and value compared with 1975. Output of tripoli-type materials and garnet increased in both quantity and value; special silica stone products decreased in quantity and increased in value; the production of emery decreased. The production and value of manufactured abrasive materials increased for all types. [ ]

Jan 1, 1978

By H. Gerry Stephenson, Devin Castendyk

"One of the most important environmental issues associated with contemporary openpit mining is the closure of mine pit lakes, and the perpetual legacy these lakes can potentially generate. Ideally, successful pit lake closure includes the following:• The water quality within the pit lake, plus surface water and ground water discharging from the pit lake, meets premining or other acceptable water quality conditions of the receiving environment. • The termination of all active treatment processes.• The return of the pit lake to the government for long-term care and maintenance.• The release of the mining company from all future liabilities associated with the pit lake.• The return of the environmental bond to the mining company.• The reuse of the pit lake for some post-closure, beneficial purpose.The achievement of these goals is known as walk away pit lake closure.Peer-reviewed publications of successful walk away, pit lake closure provide mining companies with the ability to address public concerns regarding the safety of pit lakes which commonly occur during the permitting, operations, and closure phases of mining. To date, most published work on walk away, pit lake closure work has occurred in the coal mining sector in Germany and Australia (McCullough et al., 2009; Jones and McCullough, 2011; Kumar et al., 2013; Schultz et al., 2013). In North America, examples of walk away, pit lake closure are not widely discussed in the literature despite there being excellent examples from the coal mining sector in Alberta, Canada (e.g. Pleasure Island, Black Diamond, East Pit, Sphynx, Robb, Lovette, Siltstone and Sterling), and from the iron mining sector in Minnesota in the United States (e.g. Portsmouth Lake, see MNDNR, 2018). Although seldom included in discussions of pit lakes from the metal and coal mining sectors, the aggregate and fabricated-stone mining sectors also produce pit lakes, and there are numerous examples throughout North America where these pit lakes have been successfully closed and transformed into post-mining resources (Vandenberg, 2018; Crossman, 2019). The difficulty of finding these good examples in the literature makes it challenging for companies to respond to public and regulatory questions regarding pit lake closure and reuse. As such, there is a pressing need to document the motivations and approaches used in examples of successful, walk away, pit lake closure in North America so that the mining industry, at large, can learn from these examples and can better address public concerns."

Aug 1, 2019

By C S. Szentesy, K Howie

The Rosia Montana gold deposit is located within the æGolden QuadrilateralÆ area in the Apuseni Mountains of Transylvania, Romania. The deposit is situated approximately 85 kilometres north of the regional centre of Deva, within the province of Alba, at elevations of up to 1100 metres above sea level. The Rosia Montana deposit contains a current resource of 344.07 million tonnes at an average grade of 1.3 grams per tonne (g/t) gold (Au) and 6.0 g/t silver (Ag) for a total (measured, indicated and inferred) contained resource of 14.29 million ounces of gold and 67.00 million ounces of silver. The resource was calculated using a 0.6g/t Au cut-off, a 10 x 10 x 10 metre block size and multiple indicator kriging. The low sulfidation style epithermal mineralisation at Rosia Montana is hosted within Tertiary age dacite intrusions and related vent breccias. Mineralisation is generally disseminated and associated with silica, adularia, illite, pyrite and carbonate alteration of host rocks, with minor late carbonate-base metal veins. Precipitation of precious metals is generally considered to have occurred as a result of over-pressurization, boiling and subsequent brecciation. The dacite intrusions are hosted in Cretaceous shallow marine and deltaic shales and slates, which overlie older Paleozoic sedimentary and metamorphic rocks within uplifted sections of oceanic sea floor.

Jan 1, 2002

By Peter Grandone

"INTRODUCTION The injection of water into partly depleted-oil-bearing formations as a means of supplying additional energy to flow oil wells now is recognized by the petroleum industry as an effective method of increasing the recovery of oil. The benefits to be derived from water-flooding oil sands were discovered accidentally more than 4o years ago, when oil producers in the Pennsylvania and western New York fields observed suustantial increases, in oil-production rates when water leaked past corroded casings of old wells into producing sands. This observation prompted some operators purposely to perforate or slit the casings opposite the producing formation in some of their wells to permit water to enter the formation. However, as many operators viewed the practice with skepticism and considered it to be in violation of oil-conservation principles,- systematic water-flooding was not initiated until the Pennsylvania legislature, in 1921, enacted a law authorizing water-flooding of oil sands in that State.Although water-flooding has been practiced in a haphazard manner for more than 25 years in Chautauqua and Montgomery Counties, Kansas, planned or systematic water-flooding in that State had its inception in 1935, when the legislature, following the example of Pennsylvania, also passed a lava/ authorizing water-flooding. The early operations and, to some extent, those still, practiced in the Chautauqua-Montgomery area consisted in raising or perforating the casing to allow water from upper strata to gravitate into underlying oil-producing formations. The extent to which this type of water-flooding affected petroleum production in the old stripper area of eastern Kansas is not known, but it is known to have increased oil production ap¬preciably from many leases.Following enactment of the law permitting water-flooding in Kansas, three operators inaugurated, in that same year, three organized flooding projects in three different counties of the southeastern part of the State. The first organized project on record was that of the York State Oil Co. in the Seeley pool, Greenwood County. On this project, the injection was started on May 15, 1935, into the Bartlesville sandstone at a top depth of 1940 feet."

Jul 1, 1944

By Robert H. Peters

This Bureau of Mines report describes several significant problems associated with absenteeism among underground coal miners. The vast empirical literature on employee absenteeism is reviewed, and a conceptual model of the factors that cause absenteeism among miners is presented. Portions of this model were empirically tested by performing correlational and multiple regression analyses on data collected from a group of 64 underground coal miners. The results of these tests are presented and discussed.

Jan 1, 1987

By C. H. Larsen

A 9-month study of the uses of wire rope associated with U. S. underground coal mining is reported. Rope applications are broken down into hoisting and nonhoisting applications where "hoisting" refers to transport in vertical and inclined shafts. The former receives the greatest emphasis since it represents the most critical rope application from the stand-point of production and safety. The discussion of hoisting practice includes aspects related to the mine operators as well as those related to the equipment builders and wire rope manufacturers. U. S. state and Federal laws regulating hoisting and wire rope use are also presented and discussed. Canadian and other foreign hoisting practice and laws are included. The state of the art in electromagnetic nondestructive inspection of hoist ropes is presented. Capabilities and use of one Canadian electromagnetic device are discussed in great detail. Conclusions are drawn regarding the present state of wire rope and hoisting technology in U. S. coal mines. Recommendations are made for improving rope practice, in general, and hoisting, in particular, consistent with greater safety.

Jan 1, 1971

By Victor Romero, Steve Redmond

All Rights Reserved. Printed in the United States of America. Information contained in this work has been obtained by SME, Inc. from sources believed to be reliable. However, neither SME nor its authors guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information published herein, and neither SME nor its authors shall be responsible for any errors, omissions, or damages arising out of use of this information. This work is published with the understanding that SME and its authors are supplying information but are not attempting to render engineering or other professional services. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the publisher. Any statement or views presented here are those of individual authors and are not necessarily those of the SME. The mention of trade names for commercial products does not imply the approval or endorsement of SME.

Dec 1, 2011

By Aram Grigoryan

This paper addresses historical aspects and construction sequencing of the subway complex under Columbus Circle in Manhattan; the structural elements of the rehabilitation and new construction; and the challenges associated with design and construction. PB is providing engineering services to New York City Transit (NYCT) for the rehabilitation of the 59th Street/Columbus Circle Station Complex that services over 150,000 customers daily. The project involves structural repairs, modifications and new construction requiring underpinning and temporary supports, custom framing details, and construction staging procedures to meet stringent limitations within the operating transit station and around the Columbus Circle street intersections.

Jan 1, 2008

By Joel A. Hunt

The Bunker Hill Mine, located in north Idaho, consists of over 150 miles of passageways within highly fractured and faulted Precambrian metamorphosed rocks. The Bunker Hill Mine was at one time a major producer of lead and zinc; currently it is on inactive but maintained status. Ground water moving along flow paths that have been disturbed by mining reacts with pyrite and oxygen to produce acid water within the mine. Discharge of this acid water averages more than 5 cubic feet per second, with an average zinc concentration of 160 mg/L and pH of 2.8. Treatment of this acid mine drainage is required by the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES). Cessation of all underground activities at the Bunker Hill Mine will not terminate the production of acid mine drainage. Reclamation alternatives that could either reduce the quantity or Improve the quality of the drainage upon mine closure are highly attractive. This project is directed towards delineation of reclamation alternatives based upon an understanding of the characteristics of ground water recharge near the mine. A variety of field techniques were used to identify areas of rapid infiltration and to investigate the ground water flow system associated with the upper portion of the mine in a portion of the Milo Creek drainage. These techniques include Installation of piezometer nests, dye tracing, surface resistivity, dye dilution, spring surveys, and hydrochemical analyses. Sites of direct Infiltration into the mine have been located. These include mine workings directly below perennial streams, intersections between streams and faults, and a caved area adjacent to an ephemeral stream. Results of these investigations indicate that recharge through these sites is not as rapid as suggested by previous studies. Inflow to the underground workings from the ground water flow system around the margin of the mine may account for more mine water than sites of direct infiltration. Recharge control at areas of direct infiltration could result in a net decrease in the quantity of acid drainage from the Bunker Hill Mine. Locations suggested for recharge control are West Milo Creek above the Guy Caving Area, the intersections of the Cate Fault with South Milo and Milo Creeks, and an area of Milo Creek below the Milo Creek Dam that overlies shallow mine workings.

Jan 1, 1984

THIS bulletin presents all analytical and lest methods regularly used by Bureau of Mines laboratories for characterizing coal and coke. To provide better service to coal producers and consumers, the scope of this bulletin has been expanded to include important test methods used to evaluate coal properties for commercial processing. The methods described will prove valuable to all persons interested in analyzing and testing coal and coke.

Jan 1, 1967

By Holt L. Farley

This report describes the development of an electronic system which detects unsafe slack and overload conditions in underground mine hoist ropes. The Slack and Overload Rope Protection System (SORPS) includes a fail-safe load cell inserted between the rope and the conveyance, and an accelerometer mounted on the conveyance. Signals from these transducers are telemetered via a radio link to the hoist control room, where they are combined with drum speed and chair status in a microprocessor-based decision and display unit. Abnormally high external force levels are detected as discrepancies between rope tension and cage acceleration; conveyance weight is inferred continuously. Hazardous conditions are displayed to the hoist operator, along with general hoist status. The system has been tested in a working mine for approximately two years. The report contains specifications, design data and field test experience generated under the SORPS program. It also includes information on dynamic modeling, vibration environment, the status of existing slack detection systems, and applicable control strategies.

Jan 1, 1983