Search Documents

By Alphonse C. Van Besien

It is doubtful if anyone knows precisely how many U.S. coal miners have been killed by roof falls. In 1931, 51 miners were killed by falls or rock in every 10-day period (Paul, 1). Roley (2) indicated that from 1882 to 1945, over 3,700 men were killed by roof falls in Illinois alone. During this 63-year period, roof falls accounted for 47.6 percent of the coal mine accident fatalities. Similarly, Price and Nolting (3) reported that during the 10-year period beginning in 1937, roof falls claimed over 50 percent of the lives lost in West Virginia coal mines. Over 150 miners died under fallen rock in West Virginia alone, in each of those years. Certainly, the statistics have improved over the years. The Theodore Barry Report of 1971 (4) indicated that during, the previous 4 years, fewer than 100 miners per year lost their lives to roof falls--in the entire United States. The improvement is less remarkable when it is realized that the accident rate has declined only as the number of miners employed underground has declined. The TRW Report (4) pointed out that although the number of fatalities in underground coal mining (from all causes) had been cut in half from 1956 to 1965, the fatality rate per thousand miners had remained virtually constant. The decreased accident rate was due not to a reduction in hazards but to a reduction in work force. Roof falls still claim approximately 50 percent of the lives lost in underground coal mines. Considering the increased underground production of coal which must result from our energy crisis, the environmentalists' pressure against strip mining, and our inevitably diminishing supply of strippable coal, it is apparent that some means must be found to reduce the number of lives claimed by coal mine roof falls.

Jan 1, 1973

By Thomas M. Lynberg

WIDCO is a surface coal mine located near Centralia, Washington. The WIDCO preparation plant processes over 7 million tons of run- of-mine coal each year with a product yield averaging 72%. In the jig type preparation plant the fine refuse amounts to approximately 130 dry tons per hour of 28mesh by 0. This fine refuse material is thickened in a 160ft. diameter static thickener with the use of lime as a coagulant and organic polymer as a flocculant. Once thickened the fine refuse, which is predominately bentonitic clays, has been dewatered and disposed of using several different methods. These methods will be discussed and include vacuum disc filters, ponds, solid bowl centrifuges, belt filter presses and experiments with electrokinetic dewatering.

Jan 1, 1981

By Z. T. Bieniawski

Engineering rock mass classifications have received prominent attention as design aids in rock tunneling. Support selection in civil engineering tunnels and chambers is often based on such classifications. In the field of mining, rock mass classifications have not been utilized to the same extent but some applications have been made. This paper considers the current rock mass classification schemes from the point of view of their potential in mining. Case histories are described featuring their use in assessing the cavability of ore as well as entry stability and support. Current possibilities for rock mass classifications as design aids in mining are outlined.

Jan 1, 1980

American Barrick Resources Corp. has come farther, faster in the last 11 years than any mining company in recent memory. Acquisition of Lac Minerals Ltd. in August 1994 now makes Barrick the largest gold producer in the world outside South Africa. In terms of market capitalization, the company is the world's most valued gold producer. American Barrick's 28.3-km2 (7000acre) Goldstrike property on Nevada's Carlin Trend, the primary engine for past growth, was purchased in 1987 for $62 million. Regarded as an attractive exploration target, Goldstrike instead propelled American Barrick to the front rank of world gold producers. In 1993, the company produced 50.75 t (1,631,988 oz), 44.78 t (1,439,929 oz) from Goldstrike. Reserves on the property totaled 905 t (29.1 million oz) at the end of 1993, the largest in North America.

Jan 1, 1994

By H. Kimura

A new technology for ironmaking based on direct gaseous reduction of iron ore concentrate is under development. The process is based on the flash reduction of the concentrate particles in a gaseous reducing agent, such as hydrogen, natural gas, a reducing gas generated by partial combustion of coal, or a combination thereof. This technology is expected to drastically lower CO2 emission and reduce energy consumption by about 38% of the blast furnace requirements. The energy savings are possible largely due to the elimination of pelletization and cokemaking. Process design and simulation using hydrogen as the reductant for iron ore concentrate have been performed. A process flow sheet composed of a flash reactor, heat recovery system, water removal system for purifying recycled hydrogen, and all connecting streams was evaluated using the METSIM software. Ironmaking using two reactors was also designed and simulated, which could reduce the total required amount of hydrogen although it would increase the complexity of the flow sheet and operation.

Jan 1, 2010

Allis Mineral Systems' Grate- Kiln system can economically convert low-grade iron ore into high- grade iron-ore pellets suitable as feed material for blast furnaces for making steel. These pellets can also be fed to a direct reduction process for making sponge iron. The Grate- Car system combines the company's [ ] Grate-Kiln system for iron-ore pelletizing and Accar system for iron- ore reduction. The Grate-Car system consists of a traveling grate, a ported rotary kiln and a rotary cooler that are coupled in series. This system eliminates the pelletizing plant's rotary kiln and annular cooler. It reduces the need for some auxiliary equipment. This results in lower capital cost and lower energy consumption. The traveling grate provides that static bed handling necessary for heat hardening pellets before their discharge into the kiln. The ported kiln provides the reducing atmosphere with a more precise means of controlling the kiln axial temperature profile than conventional rotary kilns.

Jan 1, 1997

By Niles E. Grosvenor

One of the most important considerations in the efficient operation of an under¬ground mine is the haulage system. Often the determining factor between profit or loss is the quick removal of ore and waste from the working places to secondary and main-line haulage areas, and so on to the outside. Important, too, is moving supplies from the surface to the working faces so that the loading process can continue with little interruption. Men must he transported in a rapid but safe manner. It has been through the efficient use and generally the combination of mine cars, track, belt conveyors and rubber-tired haulage equipment that underground operations have been able to compete with the more popular strip or surface mining. As near-surface ore bodies are exhausted, underground haulage will play an expanding part in economically furnishing the world's needs for all types of minerals. The choice of underground haulage equipment, wherever possible, should be one that will give the smallest overall cost of ore removal during the life of the mine while meeting necessary safety requirements. The reader is referred to Sec. 12 for equipment such as scrapers and load-dump-¬haul units that perform loading as well as haulage duties. 14.1-MINE CARS AND TRACK NILES E. GROSVENOR Main-Line and Secondary Haulage-Many mines today use a combination of belt and rail haulage. Even if a- belt system is used to carry the product from the face to the surface, track is used to transport workmen and supplies. A track system, when properly installed, will provide interruption-free and safe haulage. Schrecengost 2 lists the following as major advantages of track haulage: 1. Safety in transporting men in and out of the mine in personnel cars. 2. Easy and rapid transportation of supervisory personnel. 3. A temporary shutdown occasioned by a roof fall or power failure along the haulage system will not shut down the production areas. 4. Quick availability of repair parts and supplies. 5. Large pieces of coal or rock can be handled without damage to the haulage equipment. 6. In areas where quality fluctuates noticeably, different cars may be separated out for special preparation. 7. Rock or equipment may be loaded and moved out of the mine without interference with the production or preparation of the coal. 14.1.1-MINE CARS Mine cars with steel bodies are used in all types of present-day mining. Wooden cars usually are more bulky and less resistant to wear and damage, but are more easily repaired. Regardless of the type of mine car selected, it is most practical to standardize on one type or make to simplify repairs and limit the amount of spare parts necessary to stock. Rigid-body flat-bottomed cars are simpler and usually lower than others of equal capacity. Advantages are: ease of loading because of the low sides, simplicity, cheapness and high ratio of capacity to weight. The disadvantages include the

Jan 1, 1973

By G. Frey, D. Scott, C. Pritchard

Controlled recirculation has been used in the metal/nonmetal mining industry for energy savings when heating and cooling air, in undersea mining and for increasing airflow to mining areas. For safe and effective use of controlled district recirculation, adequate airflow to dilute contaminants must exist prior to implementation, ventilation circuit parameters must be accurately quantified, ventilation network modeling must be up to date, emergency planning scenarios must be performed and effective monitoring and control systems must be installed and used. Safety and health issues that must be considered and may be improved through the use of controlled district recirculation include blasting fumes, dust, diesel emissions, radon and contaminants from mine fires. Controlled recirculation methods are expected to become more widely used as mines reach greater working depths, requiring that these health and safety issues be well understood. The U.S. National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) conducted two controlled recirculation tests over three days at a Wyoming trona mine, utilizing an inline booster fan to improve airflow to a remote and difficult-to-ventilate development section. Test results were used to determine the effect that recirculation had on air qualities and quantities measured in that section and in other adjacent areas. Pre-test conditions, including ventilation quantities and pressures, were modeled using VnetPC. During each test, ventilation quantities and pressures were measured, as well as levels of total dust. Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) tracer gas was used to simulate a mine contaminant to monitor recirculation wave cycles. Results showed good correlation between the model results and measured values for airflows, pressure differentials, tracer gas arrival times, mine gasses and dust levels.

Jan 1, 2013

By Janet Briggs, Michael Vertes, J. F. Shirley, R. E. Cutherbertson, Alexander Sutulov, J. D. Vincent

Molybdenum, the 42nd element in the periodic table, is now a very important metal in industry of the United States and the world. Chemically, it is a very complex element having valences of 0, +2, +3, +4, +5, and +6, and can exist as a mixture of these valences in many compounds. It was discovered and separated by Scheele in 1778. At the present time, molybdenite is the only important commercial source of molybdenum. Molybdenum occurs in some 12-14 different recognized minerals, but practically all of the production is molybde¬nite. As late as 1915, it was considered a rare metal. Germany made extensive use of it during the first world war, which resulted in the establishment of a molybdenum industry in the United States at Cli¬max, Colo., in 1917. It was not until the mid-1920s when its introduc¬tion to steelmaking developed for the US automobile industry that the metal gained important acceptance. The first notable example was the Willis-Saint Claire automobile introduced in 1921 by C. Harold Willis, formerly chief metallurgist for Ford Motor Co. Molybdenum has also been produced in the US from wulfenite (PbMoO4) from Arizona and Nevada, and a small amount of molyb¬denite was produced up to the early 1970s as a coproduct from two molybdenum-bismuth mines in Quebec, Canada. The first byproduct production of molybdenite from a copper con¬centrating operation was achieved at Cananea, Sonora, Mexico, and was followed shortly by the Utah division of Kennecott Copper Co. in the mid-1930s. This section of the Handbook is divided into four main subdivi¬sions: Chapter 2, which deals with the concentration and recovery of molybdenite from primary molybdenum ores; Chapter 3, which deals with the recovery and separation of molybdenite as a byproduct from copper production; Chapter 4, which deals with the conversion practices employed for converting molybdenite to the oxide or metal form; and Chapter 5, which covers the uses of molybdenum in steel¬making, chemicals, pigments, lubrication, catalysts, etc. The Free World molybdenum production, for the past eight years from all sources, is shown in Table 1. 2. Primary Molybdenite Ores General In 1978 there were four primary molybdenite recovery plants in operation: Climax, Endako, Quests, and Henderson. For over half a century the Climax mine has been by far the largest and most important source of molybdenum in the world. During the early 1970s a few primary molybdenite mines in British Columbia were shut down due to adverse economical conditions. The largest of these was British Columbia Molybdenum, formerly owned by Kennecott Copper Corp. The Climax plant and operations are described in detail and the opera¬tions of the other plants are summarized following a general discussion of recovering molybdenite from primarily molybdenite ores. Recovery of molybdenite as a byproduct will be taken up in Chapter 3. Geology Molybdenite production from mines in which it is the sole or preponderantly important mineral is confined to ore bodies in granites or igneous-type rocks or pegmatite dikes. More than one state of mineralization is sometimes present as at Climax, York, Hardy, and Questa. In the case of Climax, important byproduct recovery of tung¬sten, tin, pyrite, and monazite is also attained. The molybdenite is commonly disseminated very finely in the siliceous granitic gangue but does occur in stringers and blebs in silicified mineral solution channels. Treatment of Primary Molybdenum Ores All primary molybdenum ores are low in molybdenite, the content ranging from less than 0.20% MoS2 to a high of about 0.40% MoS2. A high resistance to grinding is a common ore characteristic combined with a habit of very fine dissemination of molybdenite in the siliceous portion of the ore. Because of low MoS2 content, high hardness, and fine dissemination of molybdenite in primary ores, it has been necessary to develop a special mill treatment which yields an accepta¬ble recovery at a reasonably low milling cost. Essentially, the treatment consists of intensive rougher flotation at a relatively coarse grind with production of a low grade rougher froth containing a substantial percentage of the molybdenite in the form of low grade middling particles, followed with multistage regrinding to liberate the locked molybdenite and several stages of flotation cleaning to produce a finished grade concentrate. Rougher flotation on pulp ground to ap¬proximately 35 mesh is common practice, even if complete liberation of molybdenite from siliceous gangue may require regrinding to 200 mesh. The flotation of middling particles with a very low content of molybdenite in the rougher flotation step has been made possible by the application of a combination of reagents first developed at the Climax mill and used with some modification in the treatment of all primary molybdenum ores. The reagents commonly employed and their functions in flotation are:

Jan 1, 1985

By E. Woodburn, Harrison R. Cooper, R. Putman

The key to concentrator automation is practical means for obtaining continuous assay data from concentrator streams. The technique most successfully used is x-ray fluorescence analysis. The practical reality of on-stream x-ray analysis has been achieved through effort over the past twenty years, marked by an occasional breakthrough, but more typically a step-by-step development to which many individuals and organizations have contributed. The net result of this progress is the present capability to install on-stream x-ray analyzer systems on a turn-key basis. It is now possible to provide all components of an x-ray analysis system as a completely engineered unit which can be put into immediate use, minimizing needs for specialized application know- ledge to benefit from continuous assaying in process control. The economic factors which influence the choice of system and limitations of the x-ray fluorescence technique for slurry analysis are reviewed.

Jan 1, 1976

By Robert W. Burns

Gentlemen, my subject today is glass reinforced plastics. By definition, this encompasses a wide variety of materials: at least a half dozen basic varieties of polyester, epoxy, and phenolic; virtually infinite compounding variations within the basic groups: literally limitless variations in the amount and the nature of the glass reinforcing. Complicating all of this is the fact that different modes of application of the same material fall appreciably alter' the product's general strength and suitability. These many, many differing materials are what we conveniently call "glass reinforced plastics" or, more simply, fiberglass". This common name is actually a large part of the problem when dealing with fiberglass materials. Far too often a specification is written calling for simply "fiberglass reinforced polyester', based on successful prior use of a polyester laminate. Such a specification is very nearly worthless since such tremendous variation is possible under it. Success of a laminate furnished under such a specification is entirely dependent on good fortune

Jan 1, 1962

By Timothy Batchler, Khaled Mohamed

Standing supports have been used in coal mines for decades to enhance roof support capability. Sometimes standing supports are used as a tool to resist the lateral movement of spalled ribs. Researchers from the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) are conducting a testing program for different types of standing supports (steel and timber) to investigate the effect of lateral loading on their vertical loading capacities and the factors affecting their lateral loading capacities. In this paper, the mine roof simulator (MRS), at the NIOSH Pittsburgh research facility, was used to determine the response of steel props to vertical and horizontal loadings. Finite element models (FEMs) were developed and verified using the tested steel props. To justify the testing program for testing standing supports with end-conditions of rock-like materials, the verified prop models were used to study the effect of a wide range of roof and floor materials (gray shale, shale, and claystone) on the critical buckling loads of the steel props. Also, several lateral loading scenarios were evaluated in which the steel props were laterally loaded at different heights. The critical buckling load for steel props setting up against a claystone roof and floor was found to be one-half of that shown by the MRS test where roof and floor platens are made of steel. Minimum prop performance was observed when the lateral load was applied at the mid-height of the steel prop, especially at small lateral displacement (less than 2 in).

Sep 10, 2022

By Laszlo Valentyik

The wide scale acceptance of the heavy media separation is due to its simplicity and efficiency. The two most important variables of the process are specific gravity and consistency of the medium. The latter is a function of the settling rate of the media solids. The almost always present clay in the feed and conse¬quently in the medium acts as a stabilizing agent, and its optimum concentration varied between 3-4%.(1,2) Since polymers essentially perform the same function in oil well drilling muds - i.e. to suspend cuttings during drilling - as the fine clay in heavy media separation, this led to the investigation of whether polymers could be used in heavy media separation as supporting agents. During the first phase of the work, it was found that by the controlled addition of polymers, the stability of the heavy media increased without unduly increasing viscosity of the suspensions, thus yielding conditions for more effective and efficient separation. The results of the experiments were reported in a paper at the AIME Centennial Annual Meeting, March 1971.(3) This paper presents the results of the experiment carried out during the second phase of the work.

Jan 1, 1975

16.1.1-VENTILATION'S ROLE Importance of Ventilation and Environmental Control-Mine ventilation is necessary for the preservation of human life and for the conduct of operations involved in the underground extraction of minerals. It clearly is the most essential of the functions attendant to mining, yet it is auxiliary to the primary objective in mineral extraction. Ventilation in mining thus poses a paradox: ideally, it should be carried out with minimum interference with and cost to production operations, yet it is absolutely vital in providing adequate environmental con¬ditions to support mining. Deterioration of the atmosphere, along with rising ground pressure, imposes the ultimate constraint with depth in underground mining. Ventilation requirements and costs rise rapidly with depth. To preserve atmospheric quality under intense heat conditions, ventilation at great depths must be supplemented by air condition¬ing. Likewise, when mining at any depth under severe or excessive conditions of gas, dust or humidity, supplementary control measures must be employed. In recent years, environmental standards in mines have been raised substantially. While limits are based on human tolerance, increasing concern is being expressed for standards of human comfort. The reasons are economic, as well as humanitarian. Worker performance and longevity correlates closely with environmental quality. Further, adverse accident and insurance compensation rates are a consequence of unsatisfactory environmental conditions. No mining company can afford to be lax in its environmental and ventilation practices. Functions and Processes-Ventilation is the control of air movement, its amount and its direction. As a means of quantity control, it is one of the constituent processes of total air conditioning, the simultaneous control within prescribed limits of the quality, quantity and temperature-humidity of the air. Ventilation is the most common and most. important conditioning process employed in mines for air environmental control. In mine ventilation, air is coursed through the mine workings and openings themselves and, for auxiliary purposes, through vent tubing and ducts. Thus, many interdependencies exist between the mining system and ventilation method. In fact, the two often have evolved ,jointly, as in room-and-pillar extraction of bedded or tabular mineral deposits, such as coal. Ventilation in mines today is provided almost exclusively by large fans, although air flow may result due to natural (thermodynamic) conditions. As mines increase in depth, size and complexity, demands on the ventilation system to maintain more stringent standards of environmental quality likewise rise. On the other hand, never have the technology and resources of the mining industry to cope with environmental problems been so well developed as they are today. In spite of rising costs, it is unlikely that further progress in mine ventila¬tion and air conditioning must await technological breakthroughs. 16.1.2-NATURE OF THE MINE ATMOSPHERE Air Mixtures-Air is a gaseous mixture comprising the natural atmosphere at the surface of the earth. Thermodynamically, it may be thought of as a mech-

Jan 1, 1973

By Frank Ruskey

Many problem associated with potential hazards in a proposed mining area may not be adequately appraised because of the complexity of trying to evaluate them in terms of production requirements. Frequently, encountered hazards have to be dealt with by day-to-day operational schemes that require the miner to either force a way through them or avoid them by blocking off the area in which the hazards are known to exist. These considerations, after the mine is in full production, can be costly to the mine operator and can increase the danger to the miners. A hazard-evasion computer program for mine planning that will appraise proposed mine layouts on the basis of existing or potential hazards has therefore been developed. The program is intended for use during the planning phase of a mine, where it should assist the mining engineer in making decisions in mine design. With the output from this program, the mining engineer should be able either to corroborate his judgments made on the basis of mining experience or to find unanticipated solutions to design problem. The program tests hundreds of possible solutions to a mining layout, and by sorting out the 10 best (based on a criteria of minimum-abandoned-coal) limits the number of choices that need to be considered and appraised for applicability to a given mine scheme.

Jan 1, 1973

By W. Burger

For the development of deep, hard rock, mines fast access to the orebody is critical. In some cases the mineralized area is more than 1,500 m (5,000 ft) below surface. Excavation of shafts or declines is typically on the critical path of the project schedule. Saving time on those activities can significantly increase the net present value of the mining project. Mechanical excavation methods are a step-change in excavation performance and labor safety compared to drill-and-blast operations. In hard rock conditions, roadheaders cannot be used effectively, so disc cutting is the first choice. For excavation of declines, tunnel boring machines (TBM) can be used in many cases. These provide, in certain rock conditions, considerably higher production rates com-pared to drill-and-blast excavation. Herrenknecht AG has developed a vertical shaft sinking machine (VSM) that is able to excavate shallow shafts in soil and medium soft rock. The ground is excavated by a roadheader boom. The muck is removed by a slurry system or a pneumatic system in combination with hoisting of skips. These machines have been applied successfully on shafts down to 100 m (300 ft). A pre-sink for a deep mine shaft has been excavated by this technology. For deep, hard rock shafts, a new shaft boring system has been developed by Herrenknecht AG in collaboration with Rio Tinto. Based on proven technologies, the system uses a unique arrangement of existing proven technologies. The system integrates excavation, mucking, primary rock support, installation of the final lining and shaft infrastructure. This new system improves the health and safety of shaft construction. Detailed performance estimates indicate significantly higher shaft construction rates are possible compared to conventional shaft sinking methods.

Jun 1, 2010

By Yi Luo, Hua Jiang

A roof bolting drilling operation in an underground coal mine can expose the operator to a high concentration of respirable coal and crystalline silica dusts (smaller than 10 µm). Overexposure of high-level quartz dust for a roof bolter operator can lead to the development of silicosis in as little as three years [1]. This study proposes a drilling control algorithm for the bolt hole drilling process. This algorithm can be integrated into a current drilling control system on the roof bolter machinery and is expected to reduce the generation of respirable dust while enhancing the energy efficiency of the roof bolter machine. In addition, the drilling efficiency and bit condition can be evaluated while drilling based on the real-time feedback parameters. This capability enables the algorithm to ensure the drilling is performed under a relatively high energy efficiency with less respirable dust generation and to avoid drilling with an excessively worn bit that can cause bit clogging or steel buckling failure.

By M. J. Virnig, Peihao Qi, J. Brent Hiskey

The mechanism of gold uptake from iodide solutions by carbon has been investigated. Adsorption isotherms for gold and iodine were established. For activated carbon, approximately 300 mg of gold and 1000 mg of iodine were extracted per gram of carbon at maximum loading. Examination of loaded activated carbon particles by scanning electron microscopy reveals isolated patches of gold deposited on the carbon surface. High-resolution transmission electron microscopy shows that fine gold particles (1-4 nm diameter) are uniformly distributed within the carbon. Iodine was also observed throughout the matrix. The uptake of gold by carbon from iodide solution involves a combined reduction and adsorption process, where the gold iodide species is reduced to the metallic state superficially and adsorbed in the porous structure of carbon. A few experiments for the gold-chloride and gold-bromide systems were carried out for comparison.

Jan 1, 1993

This chapter contains the edited transcript of the "Gold Heap Leach Information Exchange" session that was held at the 1990 SME/AIME Annual Meeting in Salt Lake City, Utah. The exchange occurred on the afternoon of February 27, 1990. The session was intended to act as a forum for discussing some of the more prominent operating problems associated with heap leaching precious metals. The information exchange was very successful. The exchange consisted of several panelists introducing and discussing different topics, follow by a comment and question period. This transcript contains the panelists' presentations as well as comments and questions from the floor and the panel. Extraneous comments and remarks have been edited out. Some wording has been changed for clarity, but the transcript is basically an accurate account of what was said. At the end of the transcript are two papers submitted as part of the panel discussion

Jan 1, 1990

By James M. Williams, Michael E. Zellars, Arthur J. Roth

INTRODUCTION Our present estimates of world P205 consumption for all uses show an average annual growth rate of approximately 1.9% per year. The estimated 1985 consumption of 41.5 million tonnes of P205 is predicted to increase to 57.1 million tonnes of P205 by the year 2005, which represents a growth from 157.7 million tonnes in 1985 to 217 million tonnes of phosphate rock in 2005. The present situation of oversupply and extremely weak phosphate product prices is, however, expected to continue in the short term and a normal supply/demand balance may not be achieved until after 1990. The growth in P205 demand, in conjunction with the higher cost of replacing low cost mines as they are depleted, will place economic pressure on world farm economies through the increased cost of phosphate fertilizers. The availability of rock supply is not the challenge; rather, it is the economics of new rock supply. This economic challenge of providing new rock supply is by no means limited to the United States. Even in centrally controlled economies, the cost of rock from domestic mines of marginal quality and economic viability, coupled with burdensome infra¬structure requirements, may result in tonnage additions at very high cost. Although government subsidies to offset higher production cost is a factor in some countries, world production in the next 20 years will be directed, if not governed, by economic factors. Established infrastructure, good quality reserves, and existing operations will provide a competitive advantage for new prod¬uction. It is our opinion that the current world supply structure will remain relatively stable through 2005, in that most of the traditional suppliers will retain supply roles. U.S. rock production, although it is not expected to grow beyond the present level, will still be a major contributor to world supply. Although dramatic changes within mining, fertilizer production and farm economics may appear disruptive, the current supply scenario will, in general, continue with the major issue being production economics. WORLD DEMAND Demand for P205 by region in the world has been estimated using projections of population, crops and yield, arable land, economic and other data as a basis for future demand projec¬tions by Blue-Johnson and Associates, our col¬laborators on a recent multi-client study. Non-fertilizer P205 demands were estimated in the same general manner. These estimates of future demand are based on an assumption of reasonable world political and economic stabil¬ity, debt repayment requirements maintained at workable levels, and resolution of problems in the agricultural economy to a point where normal supply/demand forces can interact freely to provide a basis for continued P205 supply. The results of these studies indicated an average growth rate of 1.9% per year through the year 2005. This growth could be as low as 1.5% per year, or as high as 2.5% per year. It is our opinion that the estimated rate of 1.9% per year is most probable. This moderate growth rate considers both the major economic constraints facing the world agricultural industry today and the general problem of affordability of fertilizers and other crop inputs. WORLD SUPPLY There are adequately defined world reserves of phosphate rock today to provide supply well into the future, even at much higher levels of demand than presently projected. Using the U.S. Bureau of Mines estimates, which are based on stringent criteria for definition of reserves, the present world reserves base is approximately 35 billion tonnes. Identified resources raise the potential for production by orders of magnitude. Potential resources based on geological trends, and including offshore deposits, would again result in orders of magnitude increases in rock resources. Morocco leads the world in reserves base with approxi¬mately 21 billion tonnes. The U.S. is second, followed by the Republic of South Africa and Russia. These four countries control about 87%

Jan 1, 1986