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By S. W. Miller

During the examination of welds made in steel by the oxy-acetylene and electric-arc processes, the writer has met with some unusual structures, which he has not encountered elsewhere. They seem to be quite closely associated with the welding methods used, and characteristic of them, and would seem to be worth noting, especially as the references to them in the literature are few, and their explanation not clear or complete. An introductory word or two about fusion welding may not be out of place. The oxy-acetylene process is based on the great and very local heat generated by the burning of acetylene in the presence of commercially pure oxygen, the two gases being thoroughly mixed before combustion. The theoretical temperature is somewhat under 4000" C, but on account of various losses, the actual maximum temperature is probably about 3000" C.' The electric-arc process, using a metal electrode, which is also the filling rod, generates a still higher and more local temperature. The actual temperature of the positive crater of the carbon arc is given as 3500" C.2 NO figures have been found for the temperature of the arc using a metal electrode, but it would probably not be very different from that of the carbon arc, and probably higher than that of the bxy-acetylene flame. The greater localization of the electric arc is due to the fact that it is not surrounded by a large envelope flame, as well as to its higher temperature; while the oxy-acetylene white cone, or welding flame, in which the carbon of the acetylene is burned to CO, is surrounded and preceded by a long envelope flame, itself of quite high temperature, in which the CO is burned to GO2, and the hydrogen of the acetylene to H2O. This flame spreads around and over the pieces being welded, heating them to a further distance from the weld than does the electric arc.

Jan 1, 1918

By A. L. Field, P. H. Royster

Bureau of Mines Technical Paper 189 consists of a record of the scientific data obtained in the iron blast-furnace slag investigation which is reported in Technical Paper 187, "Slag Viscosity Tables for Blastfurnace Work." It includes a description of the method of preparing the synthetic melts, construction of an improved electric furnace, and refinements in laboratory methods of measurement. Only the general features of the work and the conclusions drawn from the experimental data can be given attention here. Silicates in the Liquid State In the manufacture of refractories, Portland cement, glass, and porcelain, and in pyrometallurgical operations, importance attaches to the behavior of-silicate compounds at temperatures beyond the range of common experience. This field of research has not been investigated as carefully as its scientific and industrial importance would seem to warrant. Probably the most important of the unsolved problems in the chernistry of silicates is the question of their stability in the liquid state. That little progress toward the solution of this problem has been made is not strange if there be borne in mind the difficulties attending experiments made at temperatures at which silicates become fluid, and the comparatively short time since it became possible to measure these temperatures. On the other 'hand, considerable progress has been made in the study of the compounds in the solid state because of the directness and simplicity of methods of optical examination. Important advances have been made by the Geophysical Laboratory at Washington in recent years. An extended study has been made there of saturated solutions representing a considerable number of binary and ternary systems of the more common refractory oxides. The methods

Jan 1, 1918

By Arch. B. Johnston, Carle R. Hayward

The effect of copper on steel has been studied by numerous investigators. Before modern testing methods had been developed, blacksmiths noted red shortness in iron, the cause for which was ascribed to the presence of copper. Numerous papers have been published on the corrosion of steels containing various amounts of copper, and a few writers have discussed the effect of copper on the mechanical properties of steel. The purpose of the investigation described in the following paper was to obtain additional data on the mechanical properties of medium-carbon steel containing small quantities of copper. Among those who have published results of mechanical tests on copper steels are Ball,' who states that copper increases the tensile strength and hardness but lowers the elongation. Stead2 states that copper steels closely resemble nickel steels containing equivalent percentages of nickel, as regards tensile strength, resistance to shock, corrosion and hardness. Wigham3 found that copper in small amounts had no injurious effect on steel. Breui14 found that with 1 per cent. carbon, copper lessened the brittleness of steel and in low-carbon steel it increased the tensile strength and lowered the ductility slightly. H. H. Campbell5 states that copper up to 0.25 per cent. slightly raises the elastic limit, elongation and reduction of area.

Jan 1, 1918

By H. M. Howe

Page 1. Introduction............................514 2. Definitions.............................517 3. Brevity of the Heating........................517 I. THE HARDENING OF THE BORE..............517 4. The Hardening of the Bore.....................517 5. The Thickness of the Hardened Layer.................517 6. Martensitization..........................518 7. The Hardening Repetitive ......................519 8. The Temperature Cycle.......................519 9. The Hardened Layer is the Merged Layer............... 521 10. The Progressiveness of Merging....................521 11. The Progressive Thickening of the Hardened Layer from Round to Round. 523 12. Merging and Hardening are Cumulative................523 13. Three Additional Causes of the Progressive Thickening of the Hardened Layer 525 14. Progressive Roughening of the Bore..................525 15. Avoidance of an Endothermic Transformation.............525 16. Asymptotic Retardation of the Thickening of the Hardened Layer.....527 17. The Troostitic Layer........................ 529 18. The Usual Lack of Martensitic Markings................529 19. The Thickness of the Hardened Layer Should Increase with the Quantity of Heat Taken up by the Walls of the Bore.................530 20. The Decrease of the Thickness of the Hardened Layer from Breech to Muzsle 531 21. Phstic Deformation as a Contributory aCause of Hardening........531 22. In What Way May Plastic Deformation Hasten Hardening?....... 535 23. Possible Need of Coarsening.....................535 24. Carburization as a Cause of Hardening..........:.....536 25. Does Hardening Increase Erosion?..................-538 11. THE CRACKING OF THE BORE ...............539 26. Appearance of the Bore and Cracks in Elevation............539 27. The Cracks in Elevation in the Rear Ring...............539 28. The Cracks in Elevation in the Forward Ring.............540 29. The Copper Network in the Grooves.................540 30. The Cracking of the Lands......................541

Jan 1, 1918

By A. E. Bellis

The time effect in reheating certain steels below the critical range is very marked. The increased toughness, shock-resisting power, and machinability of steel subjected to a long, high drawing temperature has been thoroughly demonstrated and is of practical importance, particularly in the manufacture of L'smokeless" rifle-barrel steel. The time effect in tempering is most important when a maximum drawing effect is desired, in which case the highest physical properties as well as ease of machining are important considerations. These are the conditions in drilling a rifle barrel. A hole, 0.30 in. in diameter and 24 in. long for the Springfield rifle, and 30 in. long for the Russian military rifle, has to be drilled in the heat-treated material. This barrel-drilling operation is probably the most difficult one in rifle manufacture, and anyone who has been connected with rifle manufacture knows how seriously production is affected when "hard" or non-uniform steel for barrels is encountered. The importance of high physical properties (tensile strength, toughness and resilience) in a rifle barrel is obvious. The physical properties of two different lots of barrel steel are given below. The first lot, No. 1, gave serious trouble in the drilling operation; the second gave no trouble at all. No. 1 No. 2 Elastic limit, lb. per sq. in.................... 117,450 116,800 Tensile strength, Ib. per sq. in................. 132,500 131,750 Elongation, per cent........................ 16.0 20.0 Reduction of area, per cent................... 42.1 51.0 Impact strength, ft.-lb. per sq. in.............. 450.0 520.0 This difference in machining and physical properties was due entirely to the time of reheating. The first lot was given a reheating time of 30 min., the second lot remained at the reheating temperature 2 hr. Both

Jan 1, 1918

By J. E. Howard

On Aug. 25, 1911, a rail failed on the Lehigh Valley Railroad, causing a disastrous wreck. The surface of the fracture was in a plane at right angles to the length of the rail. There was a dark-colored, oval spot on this surface, located on the gage side of the head, representing the part of the rail which was the first to fracture. The nucleus of this spot showed that the fracture had an interior origin. Other fractures of this kind, the peripheries of which had not reached the surface of the rail, presented surfaces having a (silvery luster. The darkened surface of the present fracture was caused, doubtless, by the air having had access to it. This fracture was recognized as a fatigue fracture, of a modified type, its interior origin having been due to a component in the rail which is not usually present in cases of fatigue fractures. The metal next the running surface of the head of the rail was in a state of internal compression, this being the component not commonly met with in other cases, and which caused the fracture to have its interior origin. For the purpose of giving this modified type of fatigue fracture a specific name, for identification, the term "transverse fissure" was applied. No mystery was thought to attach to its formation, or to its development. The explanation of its occurrence seemed obvious in the light of common knowledge upon the behavior of steel under repeated alternate stresses.' By reason of the state of internal compression at the running surface, the maximum tensile stresses in the head, ander bending loads, were along an interior element. Here the tensile strains were higher than in the fibers more remote from the neutral axis. Under such conditions the fracture of the rail would be expected to have an interior origin. A discussion of the subject of transverse fissures essentially becomes a discussion of fatigue fractures, since they are believed to be identical. The descriptive term employed, merely for the identification of this type of fatigue fracture, had the appearance of creating alarm. Apprehensions arose that a new phenomenon in the physical properties of steel had presented itself, the explanation of which was sought in every

Jan 1, 1918

By E. W. Davis

On the eastern end of the Mesabi Range, in Northern Minnesota, is a large formation of siliceous rock which contains bands and fine grains of magnetite. The magnetite comprises about 35 per cent. of the rock, the remainder being chiefly quartzite and iron silicates. The rock has a specific gravity of 3.4, a hardness of 7, and is extremely tough. This large deposit was located early in the history of the Minnesota iron-ore industry but has not been utilized because of its low percentage of iron as compared with the other Mesabi ores, and because of the difficulty and expense of any milling treatment that would concentrate the iron. An investigation, begun about 3 years ago, shows that the magnetit,e is finely disseminated throughout the entire formation and that there are bands or lenses of higher- and of lower-grade material, in which the magnetite and silicate are intimately mixed. As a result, the scheme of milling adopted must include a fine-crushing plant. As it is necessary to crush to 200 mesh in order to produce the desired grade of product, the fine crushing is one of the largest items of expense and for this reason has been given detailed study. It is the purpose of this paper to present some of the results of the work on fine crushing, as to both theory and practice. Previous to fine crushing the part of the rock that contains little or no magnetite can be discarded by magnetic concentrators after each reduction in size in the dry-crushing plant. This-makes it possible to fine-crush a minimum of rock and also establishes the feed to the ball-mill as below % in. The fine-crushing problem, then, consists simply in crushing the rock from 1/4 in. to 200 mesh at the minimum expense. Equipment of the Testing Plant In order to determine, among other things, the operating conditions of the ball-mill when working on this rock, a test mill of about 300 T. daily capacity was erected at Duluth, Minn. The fine-crushing plant contains a Hardinge 8-ft. by 22-in. (2.4-m. by 55.8-cm.) conical mill, a 6- by 27-ft. (1.8 by 8.2-m.) Dorr duplex bowl-type classifier, a 41/2-ft. (1.37-m.) standard Akins classifier, and the auxiliary machinery necessary to handle the products. Each machine is driven by an individual motor, each of which is provided with meters for measuring the power required. Over 150 tests have been made in the ball-mill, varying in

Jan 1, 1920

By Henry D. Hibbard

The finishing and casting temperature of steel is a subject concerning which there is so much to learn that some temerity is required to write about it. This paper is, therefore, suggestive rather than dogmatic, though the views expressed seem now to the writer to be correct; nevertheless, they may be modified by future developments or discoveries but until then may be of some utility, particularly to beginners in the making of steel. Consideration is limited to the temperatures of simple steels, also called carbon steels, which are those in which carbon is the only element introduced for the purpose of conferring desired physical properties. Alloy steels will receive attention later. Three things largely determine what a batch of steel really will be; via., composition, casting temperature, and rate of teeming. Each has its advocates as being the most important; but they are so interrelated that each must conform to or be right for the other two. When one is claimed to be the most essential to have right, that, probably, was the one that it was found had to be of a certain description, within narrow limits, to suit the already adopted variations of the other two; that is, it was the last of the three to be brought into line. The term "casting temperature" is rather indefinite as there ale several temperatures to which the term may be applied. Most writers who have mentioned casting temperature of steel have alluded to it in relative terms. The few who have given actual temperatures, including Langmuir, Burgess, Styri, and Bash, do not give full information about them. Their results demonstrate the efficiency of pyrometers used rather than aid the steelmaker. In order to understand and use the temperatures, one should know in each case what the steel was, the stage at which the temperature was taken, whether it was usual or not, and whether or not it was right for that steel at that stage. When these

Jan 1, 1925

By Heinrich Ries

With the rapid development of Canadian industries calling for the use of fire-brick for the lining of furnaces or cement-kilns, for constructing brick-kilns or coke-ovens, for lead-furnaces, etc., the question has often arisen whether the provirices within the Dominion have not the necessary raw materials for the manufacture of such refractory wares. As an indication for the need of such products in Canada, me find that the imports in 1910 amounted in value to $519,454. The materials came in part from Great Britain, and part from the United States. Those supplied by the latter country are obtained largely from Pennsylvania and Ohio, and when shipped to distant points, such as British Columbia, the item of transportation is a serious factor. Scotch fire-brick is used both in eastern and western Canada, but in the latter case the shipments are made by water route to Vancouver. During the past four years I have been investigating the clay-deposits of Canada, for the Canadian Geological Survey, and while all types of clay have been included in the study, special pains have been taken to ascertain the occurrence of refractory clays. As a result of this work we are able to report on the existence of beds of refractory clays at the followiug localities: Inverness and Shubenacadie, Nova Scotia; St. Remi, d'Amherst, Quebec; Dirt Hills and Cypress Hills, Saskatchewan; Sumas Mountain, near Clayburn, B. C., and Kyuquot, on northwestern Vancouver Island. A map of Canada, showing the fire-clay deposits, is given in Fig. 1. It is possible that other deposits may be discovered in the future in districts remotely located from the present lines of railroad.

Jan 1, 1914

By C. Y. Clayton

In connection with certain cooperative work carried on between the Ordnance Department of the U. S. Army, the U. S. Bureau of Mines, and the U. S. Geological Survey during the year 1918, it was the writers' privilege to make metallographic examinations of a great many test bars and other pieces of nickel-steel gun forgings. The material studied came from many different steel plants throughout the country and consisted both of forgings that had been accepted by the Ordnance Department and those that had failed to pass the specified physical tests. In general, these tests require a minimum tensile strength of 95,000 lb. (42,091 kg.)! an elastic limit of 65,000 lb. (29,483 kg.), an 18 per cent, elongation, and a 30 per cent. reduction in area. An average chemical composition of the steel studied is 0.38 per cent. carbon and 2.9 per cent. nickel. The steel was of both basic electric and basic open-hearth manufacture. The object of the metallographic work was twofold: to assist in detecting defects in the steel and, if possible, to suggest remedies for the same; and to obtain as much information as possible in regard to the relation of the microstructure of the metal to its physical properties. The grcatcr part of the investigation was devoted to defective metal that failed to pass the ordnance specifications. Many types and kinds of more or less serious defects thus came under observation, but most of these were due to the attempts by the manufacturer to meet the enormous demand for ordnance steel with more or less inadequate equipment, and were soon remedied. Two defects, the so-called "flakes" or "snowflakes" and a certain "fibrous" or "woody" fracture, were encountered so frequently and were so disastrous to the steel that the greater part of the study was devoted to them. As a result much information as to their nature and their effects upon the steel and something in regard to some of the conditions that favor their development has been obtained. The purpose of the present

Jan 1, 1920

By Carleton Ellis

The problem of the influence of hot surfaces upon gaseous combustion is one which, from a purely scientific standpoint, has engaged, for many years past, the attention of Prof. William A. Bone, of Leeds University and the Imperial College, London ; and as his recent work has been the direct outcome of earlier scientific investigation, it will be appropriate, by may of introduction, to review briefly the present position of science with respect to this important subject, as stated by Professor Bone. One may perhaps best arrive at an understanding of the term " flameless " or " surface " combustion by considering certain facts which differentiate it from the more familiar processes of

Jan 1, 1913

By Geo. Otis Smith

Twelve years ago, the Director of the United States Geological Survey addressed to the Secretary of the Interior a letter calling attention to the government's need for liquid fuel for naval use and pointing out that the rate of increase in demand was more rapid than the increase in production.' This letter, in a way, inaugurated the policy of public oil-land withdrawals, which was well founded in its primary purpose of protecting the oil industry and highly desirable in its immediate effect of checking the over-development of that day in California. Unfortunately, however, through delays in legislation, this policy may be regarded now as having outlived both its intent and its usefulness. In 1908, the country's production of oil was 178,500,000 bbl., and there was a surplus above consumption of more than 20,000,000 bbl. available to go into storage. In 1918, 10 years later, the oil wells of the United States yielded 356,000,000 bb1.—nearly twice the yield of 1908—but to meet the demands of the increased consumption more than 24,000,000 bbl. had to be drawn from storage. Nor is this all of the brief comparison. In 1918, our excess of imports over exports of crude petroleum was nearly 33,000,000 bbl. whereas in 1908 we exported 3,500,000 bbl., which was net, as we had not begun to import Mexican oil. In this period, the annual fuel-oil consumption of the railroads alone has increased from 16,871,000 to 36,714,000 bbl.; the annual gasoline production from 540,000,000 gal. to 3,500,000,000 gal. This record may be taken not only as justifying the earlier appeal for Federal action, but as warranting deliberate attention to the oil problem of today. Need of Future Supply The position of the United States in regard to oil can best be characterized as precarious. Using more than one-third of a billion barrels a year, we are drawing not only from the underground pools but also from storage, and both of these supplies are limited. In 1918, the contribu-

Jan 1, 1921

By T. D. Yensen

In the investigation of the magnetic properties of iron-nickel alloys,' it was found necessary in order to make the alloys forgeable, or malleable, to add small quantities of some other element. Iron-nickel alloys have been known for nearly a century, but have been made in commercial quantities only since 1885. Their remarkable mechanical properties were disclosed by Riley in 1889 and from that time on a large amount, of research work has been done both to discover new properties and to correlate the results obtained.2 Lately the Bureau of Standards has collected the published data in a special circular" giving in compact form an account of the properties of the iron-nickel alloys. It also contains a clear historical sketch of the development as well as a selected bibliography. The chief difficulty with the development of iron-nickel alloys was that the "pure" alloys do not forge readily. The addition of small amounts of manganese, however, made the alloys forgeable, and manganese has therefore come to be regarded as a necessary constituent of nickel steels. The present paper shows to what extent manganese is needed for various nickel contents and also what is the effect of other alloying elements on the forgeability. It also touches upon the cause of forgeability but refers to other sources for more exhaustive treatises on the subject. The alloys were prepared by melting electrolytic iron and electrolytic nickel with or without other alloying elements in the desired proportions in a magnesia crucible in a vacuum furnace under a pressure of 1 mm. mercury. The ingots, weighing about 2 kg., were allowed to cool in vacuo. If pipes or blowholes were present, the ingots were cut in such

Jan 1, 1922

By T. D. Yensen

In the investigation of the magnetic properties of iron-nickel alloys,' it was found necessary in order to make the alloys forgeable, or malleable, to add small quantities of some other element. Iron-nickel alloys have been known for nearly a century, but have been made in commercial quantities only since 1885. Their remarkable mechanical properties were disclosed by Riley in 1889 and from that time on a large amount, of research work has been done both to discover new properties and to correlate the results obtained.2 Lately the Bureau of Standards has collected the published data in a special circular" giving in compact form an account of the properties of the iron-nickel alloys. It also contains a clear historical sketch of the development as well as a selected bibliography. The chief difficulty with the development of iron-nickel alloys was that the "pure" alloys do not forge readily. The addition of small amounts of manganese, however, made the alloys forgeable, and manganese has therefore come to be regarded as a necessary constituent of nickel steels. The present paper shows to what extent manganese is needed for various nickel contents and also what is the effect of other alloying elements on the forgeability. It also touches upon the cause of forgeability but refers to other sources for more exhaustive treatises on the subject. The alloys were prepared by melting electrolytic iron and electrolytic nickel with or without other alloying elements in the desired proportions in a magnesia crucible in a vacuum furnace under a pressure of 1 mm. mercury. The ingots, weighing about 2 kg., were allowed to cool in vacuo. If pipes or blowholes were present, the ingots were cut in such

Jan 1, 1922

By S. P. Kinney

Sulfur has been one of the most troublesome elements encountered since the earliest days of iron smelting, and this problem will become of increasing importance as the higher sulfur coke is used, because of the rapidly diminishing supply of low-sulfur coals suitable for the manufacture of metallurgical coke. The deleterious effect of sulfur in iron and steel is well known; therefore, except in special cases, it is desirable to make the iron produced by the blast furnace as low in sulfur as possible. Sulfur enters the furnace in all of the raw materials, but principally in the coke. It comes out of the blast furnace distributed between the iron and the slag; very little passes out of the furnace with the gases. The mechanism of the reactions that cause the sulfur of the coke to pass into the slag and iron has not been studied to any great extent, although the character of the end products, and the conditions controlling the distribution of the sulfur between the iron and slag, are fairly well known. In the iron, the sulfur occurs as ferrous sulfide; or manganese sulfide in case of iron high in manganese. In the slag, the sulfur is present mostly as calcium sulfide. The presence of free sulfur1 and sulfates in blast-furnace slags is to be accounted for on the basis of oxidation of the calcium sulfide after the slag is tapped. The generally accepted reaction for the relation between the ferrous sulfide in the iron and in the coke, and the calcium sulfide in the slag, is that given by Howe? FeS + CaO + CDFe + CaS + CO

Jan 1, 1923

By S. P. Kinney

Sulfur has been one of the most troublesome elements encountered since the earliest days of iron smelting, and this problem will become of increasing importance as the higher sulfur coke is used, because of the rapidly diminishing supply of low-sulfur coals suitable for the manufacture of metallurgical coke. The deleterious effect of sulfur in iron and steel is well known; therefore, except in special cases, it is desirable to make the iron produced by the blast furnace as low in sulfur as possible. Sulfur enters the furnace in all of the raw materials, but principally in the coke. It comes out of the blast furnace distributed between the iron and the slag; very little passes out of the furnace with the gases. The mechanism of the reactions that cause the sulfur of the coke to pass into the slag and iron has not been studied to any great extent, although the character of the end products, and the conditions controlling the distribution of the sulfur between the iron and slag, are fairly well known. In the iron, the sulfur occurs as ferrous sulfide; or manganese sulfide in case of iron high in manganese. In the slag, the sulfur is present mostly as calcium sulfide. The presence of free sulfur1 and sulfates in blast-furnace slags is to be accounted for on the basis of oxidation of the calcium sulfide after the slag is tapped. The generally accepted reaction for the relation between the ferrous sulfide in the iron and in the coke, and the calcium sulfide in the slag, is that given by Howe? FeS + CaO + CDFe + CaS + CO

Jan 1, 1923

By William B. Phillips

This paper was prepared at the request of Capt. A. F. Lucas, Chair man of the Institute's Committee on Petroleum and Gas; as a pre1iminary.discussion of the fuel oils which are used in the Southwest, giving their composition, uses, prices, etc. Should it afterward be found desirable, these observations may be extended over a larger area. In this connection, I suggest that samples of all kinds of fuel oils, including various tars, from all over the country, be collected and sent to some testing laboratory for examination. We would be glad to extend the facilities of the laboratory of the Bureau of Economic Geology and Technology, at the University of Texas, for this purpose, and to do the work free of all expenses. After such examinations are made and the results classified and studied, it would be possible to suggest specifications under which fuel oils should be purchased, and to arrive at some conclusions respecting the uniformity of such specifications, with due allowance for climatic and other more or less local conditions. While such specifications do not now depart from a common standard anything like as much as specifications for illuminating oils do, yet there are discrepancies which should not exist. Some of these discrepancies are of lessening importance, due to the pronounced tendency to distill every crude oil that can be distilled with profit, and to send residues into the market for fuel oil. Residues from the refineries are of a more uniform chemical composition and physical nature than many of the crude oils that go direct into the fuel market. The lower flash-point oils are disappearing from the fuel trade and in place of them we are getting oils that do not flash below 220" F., nor burn under 320" F. In the Southwest, it has not been long since we had fuel oils that flashed as low as 110" F., and the average flash point over a considerable period was 151" F. Now we are using oil that flashes at about 30" lower than the former burning point, which was 258" F. In other words, the flash point has risen, on the average, 100"; and the burning point about 75".

Jan 1, 1915

By Henry Wurtz

Jan 1, 1880

By Joseph E. Pogue

In 1920, 531 million barrels of crude petroleum were coi~sumed in the United States. As imposing as this figure is, the fact that the domestic consumption of crude petroleum has increased at an average rate of 10 per cent. a year for the past decade is more striking. Will this rate of increase in demand continue? If so, the year 1930 will call for 1260 million barrels of petroleum—a staggering volume. On the other hand, may we expect the demand for petroleum to grow as rapidly as it did when the automotive industry was having its most phenomenal expansion? If not, to what extent will the growth of oil requirements decrease? When and to what degree will the petroleum industry become affected by the economic law of diminishing returns? Obviously, this matter requires careful analysis, especially as both national and industrial planning must be predicated upon present estimates of the requirements of the future. The purpose of this paper, accordingly, is to project, as closely as present limitations of knowledge permit, the course of the demand for petroleum in the United States over the next ten years. At first, the problem of estimating the future of a demand as complex as that for petroleum might appear insoluble. Fortunately, hon~ever, therc are several scientific methods of approaching the problem, centering around a study of rates of industrial growth, which lend considerable hope that the requirements of the immediate future in this field may be approximated with sufficient closeness to have practical value as a basis of action. Growth oF Petroleum Demand The demand for crude petroleum is the resultant of the demands for the products made jointly from this substance—gasoline, kerosene, gas and fuel oil, and lubricating oils. The demands for these have grown at

Jan 1, 1923

By Joseph E. Pogue

In 1920, 531 million barrels of crude petroleum were coi~sumed in the United States. As imposing as this figure is, the fact that the domestic consumption of crude petroleum has increased at an average rate of 10 per cent. a year for the past decade is more striking. Will this rate of increase in demand continue? If so, the year 1930 will call for 1260 million barrels of petroleum—a staggering volume. On the other hand, may we expect the demand for petroleum to grow as rapidly as it did when the automotive industry was having its most phenomenal expansion? If not, to what extent will the growth of oil requirements decrease? When and to what degree will the petroleum industry become affected by the economic law of diminishing returns? Obviously, this matter requires careful analysis, especially as both national and industrial planning must be predicated upon present estimates of the requirements of the future. The purpose of this paper, accordingly, is to project, as closely as present limitations of knowledge permit, the course of the demand for petroleum in the United States over the next ten years. At first, the problem of estimating the future of a demand as complex as that for petroleum might appear insoluble. Fortunately, hon~ever, therc are several scientific methods of approaching the problem, centering around a study of rates of industrial growth, which lend considerable hope that the requirements of the immediate future in this field may be approximated with sufficient closeness to have practical value as a basis of action. Growth oF Petroleum Demand The demand for crude petroleum is the resultant of the demands for the products made jointly from this substance—gasoline, kerosene, gas and fuel oil, and lubricating oils. The demands for these have grown at

Jan 1, 1923