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This paper examines the concepts of risk analysis and uncertainty in open pit mine design. It describes the relationship between risk analysis and uncertainty, describes methods that can be used to quantify uncertainty, and suggests ways of reducing the geological and geotechnical uncertainties that are inherent in open pit mining.

Jan 1, 1994

Sophisticated pit optimisation software has allowed mine planning engineers to generate mining outlines that consider the numerous factors that have a major effect on the success or otherwise of a mine plan. The outlines are generally generated using a range of values for which one can assume a fixed mining cost and a variable revenue. During analysis, the expected costs and revenues are used to investigate the cashflow and sensitivities. Ultimately, the final pit and incremental outlines, or shells, are selected for a given expected price. This paper proposes an alternative method for incremental pit shell selection that considers the risk the mine be prepared to accept. The life of mine is divided into a number of Business Risk Periods (BRPs). The BRP represents the period of time over which the owner is prepared to invest capital. During each BRP, the mine will then operate at a selected investment cost which is generally equal to or greater than the minimum required to meet production targets. In this way, a robust mine plan can be produced which allows the mine to react to change without having to alter the incremental shell limits while maintaining a strategic risk profile. This paper will summarise factors to be considered in selection of the BRP and the incremental pit shells within the BRP.

Jan 1, 1998

By Champigny N, Grimley P. H

To a bank that granted his request for a loan, the late American humorist Robert Benchley responded, `I don't trust a bank that would lend money to such a poor risk'. This quotation is unlikely to be the norm among mining companies that secure project financing. However, a poor appreciation of one of the key risks of a mining project, the reserves, often results in disastrous financial consequences. This conclusion is the subject of the discussion and analyses presented in this paper.

Jan 1, 1994

The paper examines the current status of risk and accepted practice in mining geomechanics. It explores some deficiencies in human capital, risk analysis and our future technical needs, and suggests ways of improving our estimates of slope reliability through knowledge sharing and research.

Jan 1, 2003

By K Broadley

Risk and dispute resolution are linked. Dispute resolution techniques are brought to bear on a dispute - which is an outcome of a risk being wholly or partially realised. There has been an increasing awareness by business of risk as a component of doing business. There is an accompanying awareness of the need to manage risk - including legal risk. Many companies have undertaken a systematic review of their potential risks and endeavoured to put in place systems to help to avoid or manage risks. A legal risk management program will not prevent disputes arising. However, such a program should prescribe how that dispute will be managed. The management of the dispute will involve consideration of the dispute resolution procedure to be adopted. The most appropriate processes will take into account the practical, personal and commercial considerations surrounding the dispute and be as efficient, cost-effective and user friendly as achievable in the circumstances for the benefit of all the parties. Carrying on business in South East Asia, whether as an explorer or a mining operator, brings additional considerations to bear in legal risk management and the dispute resolution process. A significantly different perspective is required due to the varying nature of the legal systems in many South East Asian jurisdictions. These jurisdictions often have relative uncertainty as to the law. This impacts on the dispute resolution processes and also raises further timing and cost issues. The authors contend that this is all the more reason to endeavour, as practically as possible, to adopt a legal risk management and dispute resolution profile which will provide business with the greatest prospects of maintaining control of the dispute resolution process. This presents a greater chance of a successful outcome to the dispute. In these times of increasing pressures on profitability because of low mineral prices, all costs of a minerals business are being reviewed. In such times, a significant legal dispute may have even greater potential to adversely impact on the companies concerned, together with the careers of the people involved. In this paper possible approaches to managing disputes and a case study a legal dispute in which Freehill Hollingdale and Page were involved are discussed. The dispute concerned an international mining company developing a gold mine in Indonesia and one of its contractors in Indonesia. Described is how that dispute was resolved. This achieved a very satisfactory result for the client - all things considered. Given the æadditionalÆ problems associated with ascertainment and enforcement of ærightsÆ in South East Asia, the longer the parties can retain control over their dispute the better off they will be. For this reason, the authors set out in this paper the main additional dispute resolution tools available - that are appropriate for use throughout South East Asia.

Jan 1, 1999

By Lumley G. I, Duffy W. J

The risk involved with incorporating new/unfamiliar technology into mines has, in the past, largely been evaluated by the supplier of the technology. The implications on safety and productivity has been accepted as part of the process of `getting up and running'.This has changed. As companies see the lost productivity and accidents actually costing significant dollars, risk assessment is becoming an important part of the implementation of new equipment. Regulatory authorities are also seeing the preventable incidents and in some cases are now requiring a risk assessment to be undertaken on new equipment at a Mine.

Jan 1, 1992

International tenders for contract mining opportunities require the Contractor to make an assessment of risk for an operation with a life span of up to twenty-five years usually based on data made available by the Client. This paper seeks to address how the Contractor assesses the data and quantifies the risks associated with the project. The areas of risk are common to most projects, but in the--Lontractor's case, risk assessment is carried out on the Client's data base and within a compressed time frame of usually less than six months. Incorporation of that risk assessment into the contract documentation is also discussed. Practical examples are given in a number of areas.

Jan 1, 1986

By Riley S. J

Ranger Uranium Mine is located within the Alligator Rivers Region of the Northern Territory of Australia and surrounded by the World Heritage listed Kakadu National Park (Figure 1). The mining operation is currently producing about 1500 tonnes of uranium oxide annually, as well as considerable volumes of waste rock, low grade ore and tailings. The rehabilitation of the project should ensure that the radioactive mill tailings and other contaminants remain contained for at least 200 years, as required by the existing guidelines (Commonwealth of Australia, 1987). The present uranium mining operation is regulated by the Northern Territory Department of Mines and Energy who must refer to the Environmental Requirements when considering regulatory options. These Environmental Requirements were agreed by the

Jan 1, 1994

By C Smith, R I. Maczkowiack, P D. Erskine

Open cut coal-mining has been conducted in the Bowen Basin region of central Queensland for almost five decades, and has disturbed an estimated area of 140 000 ha of agricultural land until 2011. Approximately one-third of the area disturbed by mining has been rehabilitated to pastures or bushland. However, none of the rehabilitated land has yet been assigned a specific end-use. This research project develops an approach for assessing end-use risks for the regionÆs mined land, and develops risk assessment models for selected end-uses. First, a web-based survey of stakeholders was used to identify risks to be assessed. The risks identified were surface erosion, subsurface erosion, bushfires, weeds and feral animals. The survey also identified possible end-uses of bushland and grazing. Second, conceptual risk models were developed based on the risk assessment concepts of likelihood and consequence specified in the Australian and New Zealand risk assessment standards. Likelihood was modelled using site characteristics and management factors that influence the occurrence probability of risks (eg surface erosion), while consequence was modelled using a set of site condition indicators and condition thresholds (changes in root-zone water-holding capacity, soil erodibility, vegetation ground cover and soil organic matter and transition probability to a non-preferred ecosystem type).The factors influencing likelihood and consequence for each risk have been integrated using Bayesian networks. The next step in model development is to parameterise the Bayesian networks using existing equations, empirical datasets, or expert opinion where data are not available. The parameterised models will be used to assess grazing and bushland end-uses against erosion, bushfire, weed and feral animal risks for rehabilitated mined land sites, with the purpose of identifying the relative risks associated with each end-use, and the landform design specifications and land management practices under which end-use risks are minimised.CITATION:Maczkowiack, R I, Smith, C and Erskine, P D, 2012. Risk assessment models for post-mining land use, in Proceedings Life-of-Mine 2012, pp 33-42 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Jul 10, 2012

By M J. Pejovic, S BoÜevski, I Miljanovic, M Hudej, A Milutinovic, A Petrovski

The paper deals with the problem of managing the supplies of consumables (energy resources, lubricants, explosives, explosive supplies, tires, spare parts, etc) in mines. After the introductory remarks and comments, a general stochastic model of supply, relating in general to the dynamic programming method is presented. A selection of stochastic supply model for experiments and research by the authors of this paper is not a coincidence, based on of their long experience, showing that this type of model is the most suitable to provide support for decision-making and management of supplies of consumables in mines.In order for the problem?of?consumables?supply?management to be reviewed, in whole and objectively from the aspect of risk, experimental tests of the stochastic model in real conditions were performed at the limestone open pit mine æZelenikovecÆ near Skopje, the capital of Macedonia. The scope of the experimental research enabled reliable analysis. The results obtained confirm the efficiency and reliability of the stochastic model and two separate manipulative-operational positions regarding its application, which may have an important influence on the optimisation of supplies.

Sep 26, 2011

By S SSdbom

A comparison was made between chemical analysis and ocular mineral/rock classification in health-based risk assessment of historical mine waste produced between 1625 and 1975. Large parts of the mine waste are heavily weathered and secondary minerals are abundant. The field was divided into several areas from where composite samples were collected. Seventy-five mine waste samples were selected for chemical analysis (As, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb, V and Zn) and ocular mineral/rock classification (silicate, mica, granite/pegmatite, carbonate, iron oxide ore, sulfide ore, distribution between chalcopyrite, sphalerite and galena and distribution between pyrite and pyrrhotite). The waste has been produced in conjunction with mining a complex sulfidic ore with increasing iron oxide content (mainly magnetite) towards the northern part of the field. Elevated concentrations were found for Cd (average 26 mg/kg dw), Cu (average 3500 mg/kg dw), Pb (average 4100 mg/kg dw) and Zn (average 11 000 mg/kg dw). Large differences between average and median values indicated that the data was not normally distributed, ie the metals occur as discrete minerals (eg chalcopyrite, galena and sphalerite). The ocular classification indicated low carbonate content, chalcopyrite dominating over sphalerite and galena in most samples and an even distribution between pyrite and pyrrhotite. Both analytical and ocular mineral/rock classification data were combined into a common matrix that was evaluated using multivariate statistics. Principal component analysis (PCA) showed, for instance, that chromium and vanadium were mostly associated with harder minerals and rocks. PCA also indicated that a similar graphical picture could be obtained for chemical data and ocular mineral/rock classification data, respectively. The comparison indicates that ocular mineral/rock classification can replace or at least reduce the numbers of chemical analysis in health- based risk assessment of historical mine waste.

Jan 1, 2008

By W Patton

Investment decisions in the mineral resources sector are made on the basis of an assessment of the economic potential for a mineral deposit. Given the supporting information for the location, scale, and quantity of the commodity of interest, miners and investors aim to make risk-informed decisions when considering further investment. The objective of resource classification is the synthesis of various types and quantities of geologic information used in resource model construction to assign confidence categories to the estimated mineral resources, which can then be used to support informed economic decisions. In this paper a risk-based classification scheme for iron ore mineral resources using conditional simulations is presented. The method involves categorisation of each block according to a confidence level, considering expected recoveries from a kriging model over mining production volumes. The realisations of the simulated model are used to assign risk-based confidence categories to zones of the ore deposit. One motivation for this work is to assess the sensitivity of the scheme to geologic uncertainties. Specifically, that which uncertainty in the layout of mineralising alterations and weathering overprints influence variabilities of associated rock properties and the likelihood of obtaining expected ore recoveries. It is shown these risks have material implications for a project’s economic potential. How the scheme can be extended to the grade control context and the value subsequent grade control activities is also quantified.

May 24, 2023

By A Reid, A W. Musk, O Jones

In this paper, the authors attempt to bridge the gap that currently exists between the duty-of-care responsibilities of underground mining industry personnel, and the multifaceted health challenges facing mineworkers in Western Australia’s metal mines where diesel-powered mobile equipment predominate. In addressing this issue, the complexities of the nature and extent of the challenges are discussed along with the current inadequacy of existing regulatory metrics. Support is given to the need for well-organised in-mine baseline studies to clearly define the distribution and aging characteristics of the toxic and carcinogenic pollutants within the mine ventilation system, with special emphasis given to exploring the validity of biomonitoring systems. The paper concludes with the proposal that a template risk assessment data sheet be prepared for the industry to provide mining personnel with a sound basic knowledge of the health risks involved and the control measures and precautions available for minimising and/or eliminating the hazard.CITATION:Jones, O, Musk, A W, Reid, A and Davis, C, 2017. Risk assessment tool for mines using diesel-powered mobile equipment, in Proceedings 13th AusIMM Underground Operators’ Conference 2017, pp 151–154 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Oct 16, 2017

By L W. Palmer

"Evaluating the geological risk associated with ore deposits is becoming common practice in the mining industry. While geostatistical simulation is a useful tool for evaluating this risk, the effect of applying different types of simulation is less understood. For simulation of categorical variables like rock types, available methods perform simulation in fundamentally different ways. In this study, the geological risk relevant for informed mine planning is studied with two categorical simulation methods, PluriGaussian Simulation (PGS) and Sequential Indicator Simulation (SIS). Risk is expressed as a probability of repeated occurrence of lithological units in the same location across simulations. Significant differences are observed between the methods in terms of spatial distribution of risk. To identify the most plausible risk model, the input parameters at every step of both techniques are scrutinised. PGS and SIS inputs are classified as four parameters that are: fundamental to implementation of the methodfixed to enable comparison of PGS and SISdetermined by user interpretation, hence variablenormally optimised during application of PGS and SIS. The effect of parameter selection from categories 1 and 4 on the risk model is investigated using drill core data from a leucogranite deposit. A corresponding block model is created for assigning outputs from PGS and SIS. Risk models produced by either method are illustrated in a cut-out from the block model to enable bench-by-bench comparison. For PGS, risk associated with relatively rare lithologies is relatively sensitive to variation of parameters. Independent of the abundance of lithology, a location-dependent effect of variogram and vertical proportion curve parameter selection is observed, with risk increasing towards the deposit edge. Although SIS requires fewer inputs, single lithologies must be modelled in turn. Using small numbers of samples in the search neighbourhood, all risk models differ substantially. For larger numbers of samples, the risk models are similar. Overall it appears that the risk model produced using SIS is less sensitive to changes than PGS but further work is required to confirm this.CITATION:Palmer, L W and Glass, H J, 2014. Risk associated with rock type prediction using simulation techniques, in Proceedings Ninth International Mining Geology Conference 2014 , pp 217–228 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne)."

Aug 18, 2014

By J M. Dwyer, S Williamson

Acceptable post-closure performance of decommissioned mining operations is a critical factor in persuading todayÆs environmentally conscious public that the mining industry will not continue to burden future generations with the legacy of environmental tragedies. Post-closure impacts must be identified and managed through robust engineering design if the post-closure environment is to be environmentally sustainable. To manage potential post-closure risks (environmental, health, safety, social and economic) within acceptable limits, WMC incorporates a risk-based approach to closure planning and engineering design. WMCÆs risk-based closure engineering design process provides a simple methodology for developing robust closure plans û the process æengineers outÆ unacceptable risks and æengineers inÆ a sustainable post-closure environment. Benefits of the risk-based process include stakeholder endorsed closure criteria for an agreed post-closure land-use, focusing of resources on major risks, and a realistic and accurate estimate of the required closure provision. The outcome is an increased likelihood of satisfying the three pillar goals of sustainable development û a financially sound solution that poses a low risk to the environment and future generations.

Jan 1, 2003

By J L. Merritt

Effective minesite water management requires that this issue be treated as a risk management exercise. The management process is generally far from simple and by necessity must involve a range of personnel covering a siteÆs commercial, operational and environmental interests and responsibilities. The challenge to be collectively faced by these stakeholders is to strike the correct balance between risk and cost. On the other hand, the challenge to be faced by technical services support personnel is to provide stakeholders with information in a format that they can use with confidence. This paper presents the application of continuous operational simulation (OPSIM) modelling techniques to establish appropriate risk profiles for minesite operations. It is necessary that the format of these risk profiles be generic and equally applicable for defining the risk of occurrence for a relatively comprehensive range of activities û eg from of a non-compliant discharge, to the risk of failure to meet production targets. What is more, the profiles need to be quantitatively based and capable of reflecting change in system response to varied operational or management strategies. The techniques presented in this paper are based around a key assumption that long-term records of the climate contain within them sets of sequences that are representative of what can be expected in the future û that is, the droughts, floods, cyclones, good years and bad, long or short, and everything in between. Therefore, if these historical records are run through an OPSIM model for a particular site, then the simulated operational characteristics can be taken as being representative of what can be expected in the future, in the long-term. This lends itself to statistical analysis and translation into the required risk based format. Water Solutions Pty Ltd have been working with Capricorn Coal Management to develop a relatively comprehensive OPSIM model of their operations at German Creek Mine, Central Queensland. Outcomes from the modelling have been used in recent times to provide mine management with risk-based guidelines for both securing and containing mine water inventories. One of the more interesting tasks has been to establish risk based inventory levels that, if reached, would trigger the immediate implementation of a contract for the desalination and re-use of mine water, at predefined rates. Also, lead-time warning of the occurrence of a possible trigger is of importance to operational and commercial planning. To service this requirement the OPSIM model is regularly used to produce lead-time estimates to defined levels of confidence. Case studies of these, and other, applications of the OPSIM model at German Creek Mine are presented in this paper and serve to demonstrate an effective methodology for practical risked based water management.

Jan 1, 2003

The exploration and mining risks are investigated and compared to the risks of smelting, secondary processing and other normal industrial activities. This study concentrates on the risk before, or at the investment decision. Internal and external risks are distinguished. Internal risks are the risks inherent in every engineering design and common to all projects. The main external risks are the financial risk, changes in prices, location problems and geological factors. Financial risks concern every capital-intensive and export-oriented project and cannot be considered as typical mining risks. Changes in prices, i.e. the market risk, concern every industry using raw materials, but the market risk is especially accentuated in the mining industry. Problems of location and infrastructure are normally more significant in mining than in other projects, and geological risks are unique to mining. All these risks associated with mining projects combine to form a risk at least twice as high as that for other normal industrial activities. Within the range of profitability of mines, which on average is the same as in the manufacturing industry, only a few highly profitable mines exist. These few mines are the sole reward for the high risks taken.

Jan 1, 1986

By T C. Hunter

There are unique risk factors involved in the development of an Australian uranium project especially by a æjuniorÆ. These encompass a range of political, technical, environmental, regulatory, timing, native title, investor relations and financial issues. The Honeymoon Uranium Project in South Australia is being developed by Southern Cross Resources. The history and experience from a risk viewpoint is detailed and discussed. Particular emphasis is placed upon the practical experience and obstacles overcome to meet project milestones.

Jan 1, 2003

Two examples of risk assessment and risk management in action are discussed. The first is in a management context in relation to Kingsgate Consolidated LtdÆs Chatree operation in Thailand. Kingsgate has conducted an over-riding risk management program to assess and manage risk across its complete business from the Sydney and Bangkok offices through to the Chatree Mine and the companyÆs exploration group. This example addresses how Kingsgate has applied risk management, particularly to the process operation, and the benefits that have been gained. The second is in an operational context in relation to Minara Resources LtdÆs Murrin Murrin operation in Western Australia. The subject is the methodology and outcomes of a risk assessment across the Murrin Murrin operation specifically to identify and assess risks with potential impacts from $1 M to $7 M. This section of the paper then shows how the outcomes of the risk assessment were integrated into MinaraÆs strategic plan to debottleneck the plant and increase nickel production.

Jan 1, 2004

The mining industry in common with the rest of Australian industry is in the critical situation of facing a rapidly diminishing insurance market. Huge industrial complexes and massive mining risks with limits of liability of millions upon millions of dollars are becoming increasingly difficult to insure. Insurance underwriters are still reeling from the financial shocks of cyclones, floods and fires in Australia over the past couple of years. Risk Management which calls for manage- ment involvement in the control of losses offers a serious challenge to miners, industrialists and insurance underwriters alike. Without it the insurance market could disappear altogether.

Jan 1, 1975