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By S Love, M Anderson, M Boland

"The high rate of failure of new mine developments to meet feasibility study expectations has been the subject of many fine technical papers. Yet failure rates remain stubbornly high.Similarly, the common occurrence of disastrous acquisitions resulting from failed due diligence on projects is well known. Yet such mistakes continue to be made.The authors argue that project and due diligence failure are caused at least partly by cognitive biases. These biases pervade decision-making throughout project evaluations.A wider understanding of these biases (and their effects) is necessary. Only then can mitigating actions be taken.The opportunity for this wider understanding exists. A number of best-selling books have been published on the topic in recent years. With wider understanding of key concepts and terms, cognitive biases can be recognised and discussed. They can also be challenged and mitigated.The authors believe that these concepts should be entry-level, required knowledge for anyone evaluating, developing, reviewing or financing mining projects.Perhaps the most prevalent biases in project evaluation failure are the ‘over-optimism’ biases. In particular, the planning fallacy and confirmation bias.The anchoring effect is also pervasive. This bias propagates unrealistic assumptions from scoping and prefeasibility studies through to so-called definitive feasibility studies. Unrecognised anchoring biases also undermine the validity of many ‘independent’ due diligence reviews. They are also prevalent in corporate acquisitions.The availability heuristic refers to a mental shortcut that can lead to a number of biases. One of these is the narrative fallacy. The mind constructs coherent narratives and opinions, regardless of the amount and quality of the information that support them. Narrative fallacy commonly occurs in the evaluation of social and political risk. Another is disaster neglect, which is especially common in the failure to assess risks associated with tailings management.This paper outlines the relevance of these biases to mine project evaluations. It also provides examples where the authors have observed their effects.CITATION:Love, S, Boland, M and Anderson, M, 2016. Influence of cognitive biases on project evaluation, in Proceedings Project Evaluation 2016, pp 226–235 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne)."

Mar 8, 2016

By Roach C

Exploration on the Callide Coalfield by Thiess Bros. Pty. Limited had reached the stage in mid 1976 where there was a need for a comprehensive appraisal of the coalfield geology. Exploration strategy in 1977 - 1978 was defined by the selection of the most attractive targets. All available literature, reports and plans were reviewed and borehole records assessed. The geology of the coalfield was placed in its regional setting and the genesis of the Callide Coal Measures described in a structural and sedimentological context. Their general form and extent was then examined by the technique of stratigraphic analysis through the interpolation and extrapolation of the available data. A "localized" reserve classification was drawn up and reasonable estimates of the various geological reserves produced, in terms of their reliability and depth of overburden. Quality trend maps were also produced. The resultant "base map" was virtually a summation of all the information to June, 1977, and the basis for the exploration programme in the 1977 - 1978 financial year. The technique allowed for "base maps" to be produced at almost any stage, each one a refinement of its Predecessor.

Jan 1, 1978

In the last 40 years nuclear energy has taken its place as a major source of electricity worldwide. It now produces 17 per cent of the world's electricity and could conceivably produce a higher proportion, to displace some six billion tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions per year. Concerns about global warming and environmental quality now underline the virtues of nuclear electricity among alternative sources of energy. Global electricity demand is rapidly increasing as a proportion of total energy usage. The proportion has doubled since 1960 and the demand is expected to increase at least 75 per cent between now and 2020. The source of this extra capacity, and the replacement of present capacity, raise questions with major resource and environmental implications. Today nuclear energy is a mature technology. Over 1200 nuclear reactors have been built and operated, some of these have been decommissioned, and among the 440 reactors in commercial operation the first advanced reactors are now entering service. Some 8000 reactor-years of operation have, with the sole exception of Chernobyl, shown nuclear energy to be extremely safe and reliable. High-level wastes are being managed properly and in different parts of the world two strategies are applied to this. Australia has a major role as a long-term supplier of uranium, since it holds almost 30 per cent of the world's reserves. This, along with an impending sellers' market for uranium, is making it an opportune time to develop new mines here. However, after several decades of concern about civil nuclear energy contributing to the arms race, we now have uranium liberated from nuclear weapons stockpiles being diluted for use in civil reactors, which will supplement ex-mine supply. The public acceptability of nuclear energy remains the critical factor in its future and hence in ours.

Jan 1, 1997

By Belcher C. B

A simple gravimetric procedure was developed for the rapid determination of carbon dioxide in coal mine roadway dust samples and the result is used for the subsequent calculation of incombustible matter contentaccording to the requirements of the Queensland Coal Mining Act. The carbon dioxide is determined through loss of mass by a semi-enclosed apparatus, following room-temper.ature hydrochloric acid attack on the sample.With a sample containing 36 per cent carbon dioxide, the achieved standard deviation (ls) of 0·3 per cent CO. is adequate for coal mine roadway dust analysis.This simple procedure enables relatively unskilled labour in mine laboratories, to analyze coal mine roadway dust samples in accordance with the Act. Some 50 analyses can be achieved per day compared with 8 by the Australian Standard Method for coal.

Jan 1, 1976

By Gaulton R

The Commission maintains a data base first computerised in 1957 and containing information from over 18 000 boreholes located mainly in the Latrobe Valley area. Some of the borehole derived information dates from the turn of the century, although most of it has been collected as a result of Commission investigations conducted over the past 40 years. The Resource Data Base contains not only information gained directly from the drilling itself but includes the results of chemical and physical testing on many hundreds of thousands of samples retrieved from boreholes. Replacement value of the Resource Data Base has been estimated to be around $200 million, and it's integrity and accessibility is clearly of paramount importance, not only to existing mining and power generating functions but to the future evaluation and use of the vast brown coal Resource.

Jan 1, 1992

Acclaimed as one of the most remarkable orebodies anywhere on account of its length and richness, the Oroya Shoot occurs on the eastern side of the Kalgoorlie gold mining district close to the contact of a fine-grained with a coarse-grained greenstone, and in association with sediments. In the same stratigraphic position on the synclinal flanks of a large drag fold there are a number of other flat ore pipes, smaller, but almost as rich in tenor. Although differing in control structure they are believed to be related genetically as all show a characteristic development of a bright-green ore known locally as "green leader". Folding and bedding structures have played an important part in formation of the ore shoots.INTRODUCTIONThe Oroya Shoot is the biggest individual bonanza of Kalgoorlie's Golden Mile. It has been stoped almost continuously over a length of 4,300 ft., and about 2,000,000 oz. of gold have been won from it. Naturally pillars are not left in the best sections of such an orebody and the detailed geology of stoped out portions can only be inferred from examination of adjacent workings.No mention is made in the literature of the actual makeup of the orebody although a few structures are shown on some of the old cross sections. A diagrammatic cross section, Fig. 1, adapted from Stillwell (1929) illustrates the form of the Oroya Shoot.Gustafson (1937) drew attention to the role of folding, previously unrecognized, in Kalgoorlie geology, and indicated that the Oroya Shoot is associated with a minor drag fold on the east limb of the Brownhill Syncline, itself part of a larger left hand drag on the Central Anticline. The latter in turn appears to be part of a regional right hand fold system as shown by Campbell (1953).

Jan 1, 1959

By Giannini M

Of the optimization techniques proposed in determining the optimum open pit limits, dynamic programming and graph theory have proved most successful. However, publications on these two methods lack a certain amount of rigour and clarity in exposition. Certain ideas in the methods have been clarified and additional features introduced in order to make them more sensitive to practical applications. A case study in the form of an application of these ideas on data from a producing mine is presented and discussed.

Jan 1, 1986

By S R. Hencher

The development and availability of modern software for cavern design over recent years has provided design engineers with a range of usable design tools. The paper discusses the range of modern software available, presents a design methodology, reviews ground investigation requirements and software available for data processing and management, and discusses requirements and common analytical considerations with reference to typical packages. Caution is given of the tendency for readily available and user friendly software to be used without a full appreciation of the underlying engineering principles.

Jan 1, 1999

By Dunne R, Defilippi J

Dump leaching began at Teller in late-1988 at a rate of 4 MTPA and has been progressively expanded to the present rate of 10 MTPA. Teller's on-going commitment to dump leaching is driven by the amenability of gold ores to the process and the availability of large tonnages of low grade gold ore. The sequence of evaluating ores for dump leaching involves rolling bottle tests on coarsely ground ore, followed by small and large column leaching and finally trial heaps. Trial heap tests are very expensive and an alternative approach to this is large diameter column leaching.A four-column permanent facility was built at Teller to specifically evaluate the leaching characteristics of new dump leach ores. Details of construction, operation and dismantling are discussed in the paper. Capital cost for the four column facility was some $45 940, while operating costs are about $24 800 per column.

Jan 1, 1992

Although the mining of metals was well established by the time of the Roman Empire mining skills did not really advance greatly for many centuries. Miners did not have the scientific knowledge to distinguish minerals, to process them, and to obtain the best recovery. Each mine essentially developed its own methods in isolation, most of them dangerous. However, with the beginning of the industrial revolution in the early 18th century there was a rapid increase in mining activity in Central and Western Europe and an accompanying need to educate professionals in the developing fields of science and technology. There was also a need for specialised schools (for example, Schools of Mines) to accomplish this since the universities of the time, formed as early as the first half of the 12th century, were cloistered institutions, focused on the study of classics, theology and law. The earliest attempts at organised technical education were made in 1702 with the establishment of a School of Mines in Frieberg, Germany (Table 1) to service rich copper mines, and in 1747 with the establishment of a School of Mines in Paris. By this time, the industrial revolution was well under way and other Schools rapidly followed, at Clausthal in the Ruhr region of Germany in 1775; in 1777 at Almanden to service the mercury mines of Spain (later transferred to Madrid); in 1780 at St Petersburg, Russia and at Falun, Sweden in 1819. The academic staff for these new institutions were often trained in the original School at Frieberg.

Jan 1, 2002

By J Webb

Anoxic limestone drains (ALDs) have been widely used in the passive treatment of acid mine drainage (AMD), but their effectiveness has often been less than anticipated. Iron hydroxide often precipitates around limestone particles and inhibits neutralisation. To determine the conditions under which iron hydroxide precipitates, a small-scale laboratory ALD system was built to enable a detailed examination of the chemistry of iron within the drain. For one experiment, a mixture of limestone and quartz was introduced to the drain to assist in the determination of the key mechanism governing iron precipitation. Synthetic anaerobic acid mine drainage containing Fe2+ (~130 ppm), SO4 2- and H+ was pumped at a rate of 30 mL/min up a 90 cm tall, 15 cm diameter vertical column filled with limestone gravel of 98 per cent purity. Three sampling ports were fitted at equal intervals along the column; water was periodically extracted for analysis at the sampling ports over an 11-hour period. Experiments were run at influent pH levels of 2 and 4. Results show that acid neutralisation to pH greater than 6 occurred at the inflow end of the drain. The greatest amount of iron precipitation (19.5 per cent) also occurred in this area. The lack of iron precipitation on the quartz surfaces in the quartz/limestone mixture indicates that neutralisation is the key mechanism for the precipitation of iron hydroxide on limestone particles. A pe-pH stability diagram derived for the laboratory ALD system indicates that ALDs will not be effective for AMD with pH 2. Influent waters with pH 2 require a pe of -2 (Eh: -118.4 mV) to avoid Fe precipitation upon neutralisation. Influent waters of pH 4 require a pe between -2 and -4.

Jan 1, 2003

The Mt Newman Beneficiation Plant uses a combination of heavy media deans, heavy medium cyclones and Reichert cones to produce saleable iron ore concentrates from low grade iron ores. The aim of this paper is to discuss score of the changes that have been made to improve the operation of the heavy medium circuits.

Jan 1, 1987

A review of the most widely used global extraction sequences in sublevel is undertaken. The review includes techniques used to extract massive as well as single or multiple steeply dipping tabular orebodies. The paper also deals with thick flat lying orebodies suitable for open stoping. Techniques used to minimise the effect of stress redistributions on a global scale are discussed for all the extraction sequences analysed.

Jan 1, 2003

By Fisher N. I

Disequilibrium ratios (U3O8/eU3O8), which assess the degree to which gamma activity represents the uranium content of a sample, have been measured on a representative set of samples from the ore zone of a carnotite ranium deposit located at Yeelirrie, Western Australia. A statistical analysis has been performed to investigate the dependence of the ratios on lithology and on the location of the sample in the orebody. The analysis indicates that dependence on lithology and on position across the orebody is negligible. Samples from the western end of the orebody and those from below the water table level tend to have slightly lower ratios than samples from other positions, although these trends are small compared with a large random variation in the data. The large random variation could result from some redistribution of the daughter isotopes of uranium within the orebody. On the basis of the results from all the samples, the estimated deficiency of uranium relative to radium in the ore zone of the deposit is 11 per cent.

Jan 1, 1980

By E Giles

Pike River Coal Limited (PRCL) is opening a new underground coal mine in the Paparoa Ranges north-east of Greymouth. To access the coal reserves, PRCL have had to build a 13 km access road through regrowth and virgin forest, and appointed McConnell Dowell Constructors Limited, with URS New Zealand Limited as their consulting engineers, to construct the final access link: a 2.3 km long, 5.5 m wide and 4.5 m high incline tunnel. This paper discusses the logistical issues of construction in an isolated pristine forest in mountain land and how they were addressed. It provides an overview of the 90 per cent complete tunnel and how challenging rock conditions have been mastered. It outlines briefly the remaining work which is construction of pit bottom workings where the mine infrastructure will be housed and construction of a 110 m deep, 4.0 m diameter, vertical ventilation shaft.

Jan 1, 2008

By G Ferguson a, P Carrasco, P P. A Dowd

International codes of practice offer broad definitions with respect to the classification of resources in terms of risk. Specific guidelines and protocols, to analyse sample data, carry out geostatistical appraisals, develop geological models and finally estimate and classify resources, are not addressed. Neither are detailed requirements for engineering mineable reserves from estimated resources. In addition, international codes of practice fail to distinguish between types of deposit, other than in broad terms, as for example, The AusIMM JORC Code (JORC, 1999) which makes reference to diamond and coal deposits. The objective of this paper is therefore to set in motion the process of specifying detailed protocols, acceptable to the international community, for the assessment, reduction and management of risk associated with the development and extraction of mineral deposits. Ordinarily, the main risks and issues encountered during the process of estimating resources and subsequent conversion to reserves, encompass:failure to understand relevant geological controls of mineralisation; validation of grade interpolation; optimism in geotechnical appraisals of dilution and stability and the consequent selection of inappropriate mining methods; metallurgical modelling of minerals and contaminants reporting to concentrates; appraising the hydraulics of heap leaching and the numerous factors that can affect recovery; difficulty of managing metal price cycles and changes in regulations within the constraints of long-term mining plans; and development of better evaluation techniques for mining ventures. Uncertainty is inherent in estimation and engineering work, and its identification, reduction and management should be a fundamental goal of all involved in the mining industry (Figure 1). Variability may be reduced by:following internationally accepted practices for the collection, manipulation and analysis of geoscientific data; and verifying that the procedures actually performed meet the associated standards. Increasing amounts of data will also reduce uncertainty, but only if the procedures used to collect and appraise such data follow the relevant procedures. It is thus the aim of a series of papers in preparation, Beniscelli et al (in prep), to put forward detailed guidelines, for:project sponsors û to provide a global view of the work and documentation needed to support requests for funding various phases of project development and budget approvals; geologists û to indicate a checklist of the requirements and standards for the exploration and estimation of resources; and engineers and economic analysists û the protocols for characterising, modelling, engineering and evaluating the extraction of reserves. It is therefore hoped to encourage the development of consistent standards for declaring reserves within the mining industry. Data from projects and operations will be utilised to illustrate the benefits of adopting a rigorous approach to estimating resources and engineering reserves, Beniscelli et al (in prep).

Jan 1, 2000

The beneficiation of heavy metal oxides, such as iron ore, is usually performed with heavy medium separation in cyclones, static baths and lately with Larcodems. Atomized ferrosilicon is most suitable as a heavy medium at densities above 3600 kg/m3 whereas a mixture of milled and atomized ferrosilicon is suitable at densities below 3600 kg/m3. When operating a beneficiation plant at densities higher than 3600 kg/m3 the quality of the ferrosilicon particles is an important factor that influences the control of the beneficiation process. Therefore, it is important to know how the rheology would be affected by the ferrosilicon quality as it also influences the control of the process at these elevated densities.

Jan 1, 2002

Circulating Air Classification of Manufactured Sand Due to environmental concerns, the supply and use of natural gravel has been limited by the Swedish government. The Swedish concrete industry is therefore examining manufactured sand as an alternative that has equal or better product quality, and which the Swedish quarry industry already has the ability to deliver. However, in order to comply with the specifications set by the concrete industry, a better means of classification is needed, as the proportion of fine particles (filler) smaller than 63 - 125 ¦m in size must be reduced. One classification technology that meets the requirements may be air classification. This paper examines the process of circulating air classification, which is not yet commonly used in the Swedish quarry industry; suggesting that a better understanding of the process is needed. The circulating air classifier in this study has two internal machine parameters that can affect the separation point; namely, the speeds of the circulating fan and the separator fan. We study their effect on the separation point as well as the interaction between these parameters. Full-scale parameter tests are also conducted, in which size distribution is measured before and after the circulating air classification. This study shows how the different parameters affect the separation point and that it is possible to produce manufactured sand according to specifications. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD, Fluent) is used to study the internal flow of the air circulating within the classifier. A single-phase study of the flow field is conducted to support and explain the findings from the full-scale tests.

Sep 13, 2010

The aim of this paper is to examine the problems confronting the planner, designer, constructor and management when rehabilitating the works associated with road building- and including quarry and borrow areas. The importance of further investigation into the many factors involved, including species, methods of planting and aftercare is stressed as is the need for trained personnel and the consequential availability of specialised training courses. Emphasis is placed upon the relevance of a rational and unemotional approach to rehabilitation with respect to the landscape and to the high degree of co-ordination and co-operation between all disciplines involved.

Jan 1, 1976

The underwater test is now being used routinely to characterise explosives and initiators. However, several outstanding issues regarding the role of confinement and the usefulness of the test results in predicting expected blasting performance require further elucidation. This paper reviews the underlying principles governing the test, and highlights its relative advantages and disadvantages in product development and applications. It deals with topics of energy release, energy partitioning, confinement and efficiency, supported by illustrative examples from tests with various products and geometries. The results are analysed in terms of both the detonation parameters measured and their extension to predicting blasting performance in the field. It is emphasised, that just as with other performance tests, the results and conclusions are only valid under the particular test conditions employed, and over-generalisation of these results can lead to erroneous conclusions.

Jan 1, 1999