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By Changwoo Lee, Jan M. Mutmansky

Introduction Recognition of Coal Workers' Pneumoconiosis (CWP) as a major occupational disease has affected various aspects of the coal mining industry in the United States as well as in almost all major coal producing countries. Regulations related to the control of coal mine dust forced mine operators to modify their mining and ventilation practices. As the coal production record of the last 15 years shows, this had both direct and indirect impacts on the productivity and production costs. To identify the causes of CWP, many research efforts have been made through- out the world. Most of these studies were epidemiological in nature, attempting to pinpoint exposure and seam variables that affected the incidence of the disease. Other studies have been oriented toward the elemental and mineralogical composition of the coal dust in the mine atmosphere and in the miners' lungs. These studies indicate that there may exist some relationships between the characteristics of the coal mine dust and the prevalence of the disease. Some of the variables that are thought to affect the occurrence of CWP are the mass of the dust in the working place, the rank of the coal, the existence of certain trace elements, the free silica content of the coal, and the existence of other minerals in the respirable dust. A more complete description of these previous re- search studies has appeared elsewhere (Mutmansky and Lee, 1984). The behavior of particles in the human lung is known to be governed by their aerodynamic diameter, which is defined as the diameter of a hypothetical spherical particle with unit density that exhibits the same settling velocity as the given particle. Because of this fact, the aerodynamic size distribution of coal mine dust is one of the parameters to be determined along with the other physical, elemental, and mineralogical characteristics. The objective of this paper is to establish a strategy for providing coal mine respirable dust samples for characterization purposes using instruments that classify according to the aerodynamic diameter. In addition, several findings concerning characterization methods will be presented. Choice of Samplers Most of the gravimetric dust collection devices that can be utilized in a mine environment can be

Jan 1, 1986

By Stephen H. Hall

INTRODUCTION At some point in the design and development stage of a mineral venture, the assay laboratory building, its interior layout, and major pieces of analytical equipment must be specified for construction or purchase. Even the most experienced chemist would have difficulty in proposing useful specifications without a good deal of investigation into the kinds of analytical tasks that the laboratory will be expected to address, the probable workload, and the operating time constraints. This chapter will provide a logical approach to laboratory design that starts with such an investigation. Specific examples throughout the chapter are drawn from the author's tenure as Chief Chemist at Barrick Mercur Gold Mines, Mercur, Utah, from 1982 to 1985. It is necessary to understand the nature of a modern production laboratory, and to recognize that its operations bear more resemblance to its parent processing plant than to a research, teaching, or custom analytical laboratory. The assay lab is a processing facility unto itself, where samples and reagents are the raw materials, and assay results are the final product. Its most efficient operating mode is as an assembly line, treating samples in a nearly continuous flow. Nevertheless , there are important differences between the lab and the process plant. The products - assays - are individually unknown quantities until they are "produced.' This can vastly complicate quality control compared to the process plant. Capital costs are general 1 y small compared to the plant, but the ratio of operating costs to capital costs for a laboratory is often very much higher than for the plant. This is due to the labor intensive nature of analytical work. For instance, during Fiscal Year 1984 at Barrick Mercur Gold Mines, labor costs for the laboratory staff represented about five percent of the total labor budget, while the laboratory building and equipment represented only about six-tenths of one percent of the original start-up capital. Failure to recognize both the similarities and differences between laboratory and plant operations is the foremost cause of difficulty encountered in designing a laboratory. The

Jan 1, 1986

By Joe W. Cotton, Thomas A. Wheeler

This paper briefly covers theories behind caking of crystalline salt particles, and methods of its prevention. The main factors that influence the extent of caking are humidity, storage pressure, temperature variations, and length of storage time. Careful adherence to control- ling these variables are more critical than the addition of even the most efficient anticaking reagent. The principle characteristics that a successful anticaking reagent must possess are: high retention at the temperature of application, good coating of reagent on the particle surface, capability of in- creasing the hydrophobicity of the particle, reducing the surface tension of liquids, and/or creating of a barrier between particles that prevent contact between particles, and modifying the crystal structure of the salt between the particles. Methods to evaluate the reduction of caking tenacity with the application of various anticaking reagents, reagent volatility and reagent degradation in plant and laboratory scales are discussed. Various types of anticake reagents used today in industry are organic active and inactive reagents, inorganic inert and inorganic salt crystal modifying re- agents.

Jan 1, 1986

By B. A. Massey

Sooner or later, we'll encounter a subordinate, peer, or boss that will test our management skills to the limit. The chances are good that our formal educations have not fully prepared us to effectively handle the situation, and through trial-by-fire, we have learned that the management of people is often as much an art as it is a science. Assertiveness - as opposed to agressiveness - is basically positive persuation. Assertive management techniques can help combine the art and science of managment to sell ideas, accomplish goals, direct the workforce, and generally promote the corporate - as well as our own - objectives

Jan 1, 1986

By Steve Meador

West Virginia's basic coal mining regulatory programs are not unique when compared to Federally approved programs implemented by other coal producing states. In fact, the language in The West Virginia Energy Act governing subsidence mirrors that written in the Federal Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act as well as other states' statutes. Certain legal and administrative issues, how¬ever, combine to make West Virginia's regulation of surface subsidence a singular approach.

Jan 1, 1986

By V. N. Sukhov

This set was developed to use the mathematical methods and computers in the data analysis and accumulation of the large amount of geological data to solve the typical geological problems at the deposit exploring stage as well as for planning and managing in the open cast deposit mining. That is to say, the set of tasks ensures the geological data base at the stage of the deposit exploring and also its further use and. updating at the exploration stage. The following main elements may be ear-marked in the complex: (1) geological data base (GDB), (2) the data input system, (3) GDB maintainance, (4) "Geologist" geological application package (GAP). Let us consider now each element purpose. 1) GDB logical structure is determined through five hierarchical substructures with a common root segment.

Jan 1, 1986

By Steve Karl

President Reagan may be "a nice guy," but he is "misinformed, misdirected, and misadvised," when the subject is the state of the US copper industry, according to Sen. Dennis DeConcini (D-AZ). DeConcini took the opportunity as keynote speaker at the Arizona Conference AIME in Tucson to fire a few salvos at the Reagan Administration's industrial policies. "American copper used to stand above the rest of the world," he said. Now 21,000 copper workers, about half of the total, are out of work due to less expensive foreign imports. "Those 21,000 are real people, not statistics," he said. US production has been cut to one-third of its capacity, he said. And the Administration shows no signs of changing its position to favor US copper protection. "Third world copper towns are booming," he continued, "while ours are dying." Regardless of profits and despite oversupply, Chile continues to produce, he said. And, while US mines continue to close, "the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is handing more than $1 billion to six copper producing countries." President Reagan wanted $8.6 billion from the IMF. "I'm damn mad about it," DeConcini said. "For the life of me, I can't understand how this Administration can stand by while this industry is brought to its knees." Last year, the International Trade Commission ruled that imports were injuring domestic copper and recommended relief. The President, DeConcini said, vetoed those recommendations. DeConcini softened his tough talk a bit saying the President's image makes it difficult for people to not like him or stand up to him. "How can anyone stand up to President Reagan?" he asked. "He's such a nice guy. But it's time someone did. He's just misinformed, misdirected, and misadvised. We must take real action and we must have a president who understands this." DeConcini said he has introduced legislation aimed at helping domestic copper. It would limit copper imports to 385 kt/a (425,000 stpy). Imports now stand at about 635 kt/a (700,000 stpy). The bill would also impose a $0.33/kg ($0.15-per lb) duty on foreign copper. DeConcini called the duty a sort of "environmental equalizer" because that is the amount domestic producers must spend on pollution control devices. Foreign competitors do not have such controls, he said. "I face people who are damn mad that this country is being pushed around," he concluded. "It's time we stand up and say we can be competitive. If they (foreign countries) put an import duty on our stuff, we will do the same. It's time this country stopped being the nice guy." As if to underscore domestic copper's desperate situation described by the Senator, Duval Corp. announced about the same time as the meeting that it has nearly closed its eastside office in Tucson. Staff has been reduced from 120 to four. Spokesman Dean Lynch said the four will consist of President A. Everett Smith, a secretary, a person in environmental affairs, and another in purchasing. Duval is also selling an office and a laboratory in Tucson. Pennzoil Co., Duval's parent, has been trying to sell the company for more than a year. It began dismantling Duval in November 1984. Pennzoil took over its subsidiary's profitable sulfur operation in Texas, sold the New Mexico potash facility, and spun off gold interests in Nevada, forming Battle Mountain Gold. Northwest Mining Association - Spokane Rock Jenkins, Associate Editor The true role of minerals needs to be realized by both the policy makers and the people of the US, according to Robert Dale Wilson, director of the Office of Strategic Resources, US Commerce Department. In addition, a re-thinking of the theory of free trade and competitive advantage is necessary. Wilson made his remarks in December at the opening luncheon of the 91st Annual Convention of the Northwest Mining, Association in Spokane, WA. At a later press conference, Wilson said one of the mining industry's main problems is that its presence in Washington has been reduced in the past few years. Part of this can be seen by events within the American Mining Congress (AMC), he said. "The problem with AMC," Wilson said, "is that in 1981, when Reagan came in, no problems were seen for mining and a lot of their (AMC's) lobbyists were let go." He

Jan 1, 1986

In some 35 years in the explosive and construction industries, we have probably seen the extremes in drilling and blasting practices. All of you know that it is difficult if not impossible, to separate those two operations, particularly when we are searching for an optimum. Early in my career while doing engineering survey work for a major cross country pipeline construction company, we witnessed some of the wildest blasts imaginable, and they were wild for two reasons. Both the drill hole diameter and the drill pattern were such that when loaded with explosives, the factor in terms of pounds/cu. yd. was extremely high. On the other hand, in 1982 we were in an underground coal mine where just one hole was used to prepare a 20-ft. (6m) wide face. In this coal mine, they brought down 7 yd3 (5.35m3) of coal with just 1 lb. (.454 kg) of explosive. On a pipeline job, the factor may only be .1 yd3 per lb. of explosives. Open pit operations in the same geographical area may have almost the same type of rock, but similarities could end there. The several operators over the years will have installed different size-crushing equipment or variances will exist in other facets such as drilling, excavating, and haulage units. That tells us that if we have 6 operations in that common area, we are faced with a fact that there is an optimum drilling and blasting pattern for each of those six. We start at that point. We will note from Figure No. 2 the simple equations for determining either cu. yds. or tons. For a rock heavier than limestone, it may require only 10 to 11 cu. ft. (.31m3) for 1 ton (.91 metric ton) of rock in place.

Jan 1, 1986

By Dale R. Ralston, Roy E. Williams, Gerry V. Winter, George L. Bloomsburg

INTRODUCTION This manuscript is based on site inspections of five existing mines and the detailed analysis of two of the five. The detailed analysis and mathematical models of the two mines are presented herein in order to demonstrate a method of predicting mine water inflow using existing mines as a data base. Water management procedures were studied at all mines. Our original criteria for mine selection were that the mines be less than five years old and have an inflow rate in excess of 2000 gpm (7.6 m3/min). Background hydrologic and hydrogeologic data were required so that two of the mines could be used for our computer modeling experiments. Our original criteria proved to be difficult to meet. We contacted numerous mines via various sources. Many mines were unable to meet the cri¬teria stated or were not interested in cooperating with us. Therefore, we allowed some flexibility in the application of these criteria to satisfy our orig¬inal requirements. Although the visitations at all the mines are not discussed herein the characteristics of the two mines simulated are presented. These simulated mines consist of a uranium mine in New Mexico and a lead mine in Missouri. The mines and owners will remain anonymous by request. URANIUM MINE-CASE HISTORY NUMBER 1 Mine Location The uranium mine that we simulated is located in northwestern New Mexico. The ground surface at the uranium mine is at an elevation of approx¬imately 7000 ft (2134 m) above mean sea level. The climate is arid to semi-arid with an average annual precipitation of approximately 10 in. (25.4 cm) (John and West, 1963). Geologic Setting It is essential that a conceptual model of the stratigraphy, hydrostratigraphy, and structural geology of a mine site be developed prior to simulation by a mathematical model. If such a conceptual model is not developed prior to simulation major errors are difficult to avoid. The uranium mine we have simulated is located in the San Juan Basin (Fig. 68), which is a structural basin located in northwestern New Mexico and adjacent parts of Colorado, Arizona, and Utah. The sedimentary rocks present in the deepest part of the basin are nearly 15,000 ft (4572 m) thick (John and West, 1963). The regional dip of the sedimen¬tary rocks in the Grants area is generally northward toward the San Juan Basin; the regional attitude is modified locally by normal faults and folds (Hilbert, 1963). The rocks of interest in this area are sedimentary in origin and range in age from Penn¬sylvanian to Cretaceous. They rest on the Precam¬brian core of the Zuni Uplift. Associated intrusive and extrusive rocks are of Tertiary and Quaternary ages (Hilbert, 1963). The deepest sedimentary unit of interest at this mine site is the Morrison Formation as described by Hilbert (1963). The Morrison Formation con¬sists of three members in the general area of the mine site; the deepest member is the Recapture. The Recapture Member consists of alternating beds of gray sandstone and grayish red siltstone or mud¬stone with strata up to several feet in thickness. Only a few small deposits of uranium are contained within the Recapture Member. The Westwater Canyon Member overlies the Recapture Member of the Morrison Formation. The Westwater Can¬yon Member is approximately 150 ft (46 m) thick and consists of light brown to gray, poorly sorted, arkosic sandstone, and some interbedded gray mud¬stone. The Poison Canyon Formation denoted in subsequent discussions, tables, and figures was de¬termined to be a part of the Westwater Canyon Member. The separate connotation is used for the description of mining operations and hydraulic properties but a separate physical description is not included. This member of the Morrison Formation contains many large deposits of uranium. This is (some pages in this article are damaged)

Jan 1, 1986

By Luís Tavares Ribeiro

Nowadays there is a greater need for detailed reservoir modelling in the oil industry. It is generally recognized that nearly all reservoirs are heterogeneous and idealization of rock characteristics in flow calculations is unrealistic regarding actual physical and textural conditions encountered in geologic formations. The heterogeneity of oil reservoirs considerably influences the distribution of fluids, as well as their displacement. It would be advantageous if a reservoir petroleum engineer was able to construct a precise mathematical model of the detailed reservoir rock variability characterizing the degree of reservoir heterogeneity in an unambiguous way. This paper presents a geomathematical model describing the spatial behaviour and distribution of the principal reservoir properties. The model is based on the Theory of Regionalised Variables and the Kriging technique. The model is performed by a set of computing programs and is tested on an Abu Dhabi oil reservoir in United Arab Emirates.

Jan 1, 1986

By William P. Walsh

In December 1983 the author undertook an investigation in east Texas which was organized to learn the feasibility of applying geophysical techniques over shallow lignite deposits. The work embraced experimental high resolution seismic reflection and offset Wenner resisitivity sounds over three 1/4 to 1/2 mile test sections. This site also was sponsored by Woodward-Clyde Consultants (WCC) and a consortium headed by North American Coal Corporation. The principal objective of this investigation was to learn whether the aforementioned geophysical techniques could be applied over shallow lignite deposits (i.e. located at approximately 100' to 300' in depth) and consequently provide structural and stratigraphic information useful for resource and reserve characterization. A secondary objective was to determine if these same techniques could disclose the nature of the overburden and the distribution of ground water therein.

Jan 1, 1986

By Bernard Amadei, Michael J. Robison

The purpose of this paper is to present the results of 102 mu1tiaxial tests conducted on cubical specimens of Indiana limestone using the mu1tiaxial apparatus available at the University of Colorado at Boulder. These tests include (1) uni-axia1 compression and tension, (2) bi-axial and tri-axial compression, (3) biaxial compression- tension and (4) tri-axial compression-compression- tension. The applicabi1ity of existing failure criteria to predict the strength of the tested materia1 is discussed.

Jan 1, 1986

By John E. Urbanic, William D. Faulkner, Robert W. Ruckel

Guidelines are presented for the selection, handling and regeneration of activated carbon used in gold recovery operations. The guidelines are based on Calgon Carbon Corporation's own investigations and experience gained in working with gold mine operators all over the world. Gold adsorption rate and adsorption capacity are shown to be independent variables thereby requiring testing of both properties when selecting activated carbon. Means of measuring these properties are provided. Historical activity tests on activated carbon are shown to be minimally useful in selecting carbon for gold recovery. Proper thermal regeneration techniques to maximize recovery of adsorption rate without weakening the carbon structure are suggested. Simple positive means of measuring efficiency of regeneration are presented. The subject of hardness measurement as a predictor of "in process" abrasion is discussed. The cost/benefit issue of carbon activity level is addressed.

Jan 1, 1986

By Vas Choudhry

INTRODUCTION Traditionally mineral processing equipment has been procured based on (equipment) specifications prepared by the engineers. As newer materials of construction are being used for equipment manufacture and plant control systems become more sophisticated, the need for thorough and detailed specifications is greater than ever. For example, it is not uncommon to find plants looking at grinding circuits consisting of semiautogenous mills with variable speed, gearless, drives of large horsepower. Technical specifications for the mill, wrap- around motor and control system must, therefore, be carefully prepared to ensure that the respective equipment supplied by vendors meets overall grinding needs. Various engineering and design companies have expended considerable time and effort in developing the specification format. Equipment manufacturers have also given significant effort to developing data sheets aimed at collecting information regarding not only the duty of the equipment, but also the conditions under which it will be operated. As engineers moved from one company to another, the specification format became cross-fertilized and further developed. As a result, specifications on file with various engineers have improved considerably over a period of time. Equipment specifications from earlier projects are commonly used as a basis for tailoring new ones. To keep equipment specifications short, general technical considerations are often compiled as separate specifications. For example, general considerations applicable to the design, manufacture and supply of the mechanical equipment are consolidated under "Standard Requirements for Mechanical Equipment” and included along with that specified for purchase. As the economic feasibility of the project has been established during earlier studies, purchase-related activities can be initiated following completion of the specifications. Procurement itself is a major activity, however, in this chapter only those activities directly related to the purchase of equipment will be discussed. PREPARING EQUIPMENT SPECIFICTION Specification for process equipment or machinery is written in such a way as to define exactly what is required of the equipment. Generally, mechanical

Jan 1, 1986

By Nick Barton, Khosrow Bakhtar

Two plate load tests of 1 m2 area were per- formed in a pressure tunnel at the Rocky Mountain Pumped Hydro Project. Reaction for the 250 tons loading in this 10.5 meter diameter tunnel was provided by deeply anchored, diverging rock bolts, eight per load frame. Pressure build up to 2.5 MPa was provided by circular flatjacks. Rock deformation was recorded at depths of approximately 0.3, 0.9, 1.2, 1.8 and 3.3 meters using axially located multiple position borehole extensometers. The tests were performed in representative units of massive shale and thin to medium bedded siltstone. Stress was built up in four equal steps to 2.5 MPa, held constant for one week for creep monitoring, then unloaded, reloaded and unloaded over a period of one day. The most deformable unit was the massive shale which exhibited 1.3 mm of permanent deformation at the surface after the first loading and unloading cycle, which included 0.36 mm of creep. After the second loading-unloading cycle, the permanent deformation had increased to 2.6 mm, following a maximum deformation at the surface of approximately 3.6 mm. At the maximum stress of 2.5 MPa, the tangent modulus averaged 0.4 GPa when loading, and 0.3 GPa when unloading. The thin to medium bedded siltstone exhibited only 0.17 mm of permanent deformation at the surface after the first loading-unloading cycle, which included only 0.05 mm of creep. After the second loading-unloading cycle, the permanent deformation had increased to 0.27 mm, following a maximum deformation at the surface of approximately 0.53 mm. At the maximum stress of 2.5 MPa, the tangent modulus averaged 6.2 GPa when loading and 21.9 GPa when unloading.

Jan 1, 1986

By S. L. Huang, J. D. Rockaway, N. B. Aughenbaugh

Shale has long been recognized for its tendency to swell when exposed to the atmosphere. Interaction of moisture with exposed shale strata can cause serious ground stabi1ity problems, since the initial strength of a shale is reduced if the material is sensitive to moisture variations. In this paper, the authors present a classification system to estimate the response of swelling generated within shales. This characterization of the swelling potential is based upon plasticity, susceptibility to moisture, mineralogical constituents of clay size particles, and fabric. Use of this classification system in conjunction with other existing rock properties tests will provide data for more rational engineering design.

Jan 1, 1986

By James F. ` King

This paper reviews the changes which have taken place in the supply of smelter-grade alumina and refinery-grade bauxite over the past twenty years. It highlights the current situation and identifies some trends which are to be expected in the medium- and longer-term future.

Jan 1, 1986

By M. Moss Stanley, Ronald P. Klepper

The objective of this chapter is to provide data that will assist in the selection and sizing of equipment utilized in the filtration method of separating solids from liquids. It should be recognized at the outset that in some situations more than one option may be available to achieve the target desired. In some cases purely technical objectives may be sacrificed because of cost considerations, design factors or other elements in order to satisfy optimization within the flowsheet and/or to provide bottom line results. Before considering available options, and prior to the next step of sizing out the selection, the operating criteria should be set down. The test work to develop selection and sizing data will be based on this data and the final products desired. This will help to establish initial parameters. A. GENERAL DATA 1. Material to be filtered: a. Solids b. Mother liquor 2. Feed rate of slurry in GPM 3. Density of slurry: Sp. Gr. Solids 4. Slurry: Temp. pH Viscosity 5. Source and method of feed 6. Valuable product: Solids Filtrate Both 7. Details on: Volatility Toxicity Stability 8. If flocculant is indicated, what has been used? 9. Describe product: (i.e., fibrous, cor 10. rosive, abrasive, inflammable, explosive, pasty, 11. Does product alter or require special environment during transport? 12. What type of filter media has been used successfully? 13. Is there any objection to use of a filter aid? If not, is there any preference? B. SOLIDS DATA 1. Sp. Gr. Bulk density 2. Screen analysis 3. Desired percentage moisture in cake 4. Solubility (state conditions): In mother liquor In wash water 5. Description of cake: (i.e., amorphous, fibrous, crystalline, colloidal, gran¬ular, thixotropic, 6. Special requirements for moisture de¬termination? 7. Can solids be compressed during dewatering? 8. Proposed product handling 9. Subsequent thermal drying or other pro¬cedure C. FILTRATE 1. Is separation of wash water and mother liquor desirable?

Jan 1, 1986

By S. Majumder

The longwall face supports are provided to prevent the caving of the immediate roof at the working face. The thickmess of the immediate roof may be obtained from the working height and the average bulking factor. A strong bed, capable of withstanding maximum bending moment among the beds within the above roof, can be identified. The load on the strong bed may be obtained by finding out the overlying beds that will rest on the former during sagging. The limiting span, L, for this unsupported loaded bed, as a beam with built-in ends, can be calculated. The support density required at the supported span (face to goaf edge), a, during the first fall, is now estimated with a view to have a safety factor 2 at the face end, when bending failure occurs at the barrier end. However, the above value is inadequate to provide necessary safety margin against bending failure at the face end, during the subsequent cavings as cantilever, for L/a less than 20.6. d For the latter case a separate expression is derived.

Jan 1, 1986

By James M. Williams, Michael E. Zellars, Arthur J. Roth

INTRODUCTION Our present estimates of world P205 consumption for all uses show an average annual growth rate of approximately 1.9% per year. The estimated 1985 consumption of 41.5 million tonnes of P205 is predicted to increase to 57.1 million tonnes of P205 by the year 2005, which represents a growth from 157.7 million tonnes in 1985 to 217 million tonnes of phosphate rock in 2005. The present situation of oversupply and extremely weak phosphate product prices is, however, expected to continue in the short term and a normal supply/demand balance may not be achieved until after 1990. The growth in P205 demand, in conjunction with the higher cost of replacing low cost mines as they are depleted, will place economic pressure on world farm economies through the increased cost of phosphate fertilizers. The availability of rock supply is not the challenge; rather, it is the economics of new rock supply. This economic challenge of providing new rock supply is by no means limited to the United States. Even in centrally controlled economies, the cost of rock from domestic mines of marginal quality and economic viability, coupled with burdensome infra¬structure requirements, may result in tonnage additions at very high cost. Although government subsidies to offset higher production cost is a factor in some countries, world production in the next 20 years will be directed, if not governed, by economic factors. Established infrastructure, good quality reserves, and existing operations will provide a competitive advantage for new prod¬uction. It is our opinion that the current world supply structure will remain relatively stable through 2005, in that most of the traditional suppliers will retain supply roles. U.S. rock production, although it is not expected to grow beyond the present level, will still be a major contributor to world supply. Although dramatic changes within mining, fertilizer production and farm economics may appear disruptive, the current supply scenario will, in general, continue with the major issue being production economics. WORLD DEMAND Demand for P205 by region in the world has been estimated using projections of population, crops and yield, arable land, economic and other data as a basis for future demand projec¬tions by Blue-Johnson and Associates, our col¬laborators on a recent multi-client study. Non-fertilizer P205 demands were estimated in the same general manner. These estimates of future demand are based on an assumption of reasonable world political and economic stabil¬ity, debt repayment requirements maintained at workable levels, and resolution of problems in the agricultural economy to a point where normal supply/demand forces can interact freely to provide a basis for continued P205 supply. The results of these studies indicated an average growth rate of 1.9% per year through the year 2005. This growth could be as low as 1.5% per year, or as high as 2.5% per year. It is our opinion that the estimated rate of 1.9% per year is most probable. This moderate growth rate considers both the major economic constraints facing the world agricultural industry today and the general problem of affordability of fertilizers and other crop inputs. WORLD SUPPLY There are adequately defined world reserves of phosphate rock today to provide supply well into the future, even at much higher levels of demand than presently projected. Using the U.S. Bureau of Mines estimates, which are based on stringent criteria for definition of reserves, the present world reserves base is approximately 35 billion tonnes. Identified resources raise the potential for production by orders of magnitude. Potential resources based on geological trends, and including offshore deposits, would again result in orders of magnitude increases in rock resources. Morocco leads the world in reserves base with approxi¬mately 21 billion tonnes. The U.S. is second, followed by the Republic of South Africa and Russia. These four countries control about 87%

Jan 1, 1986