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By Jack Parker

Critical width Before we go further into pillar design, we should look into the matter of "critical width," because of its effect on pillar behavior. Critical width refers to the greatest width that the rocks above the mine can span before failure or, if there are pillars, the width to which we must mine before the pillars accept the full weight of the overlying materials. There are theories to help calculate that probable width, and they usually boil down to one-quarter or one-third of the depth of cover; but they don't always fit, and it would be better for us to understand the factors that control local conditions. Critical width may be controlled by the thickness or strength of one or more of the strata above the mining horizon. In a gold mine, we might have a thick granite or basalt above us, perhaps capable of bridging across most or even all of a small ore body. In that case, pillars might have to support nothing, or perhaps just the weaker or damaged rock below the strong main roof. Obviously it would be wrong to design for tributary load on pillars based on some lab-determined rock strength. In some coal mining districts in Utah, huge steps can be seen in the mountain sides, with slopes on weathered shales and vertical cliffs 100 or 200 ft high in thick, hard sandstones. The sandstones are capable of bridging across hundreds of feet, often making mining deceptively easy at first, but it becomes more difficult as greater areas are opened. Sometimes such a mining sequence leads to violent bumps and bursts as the wide spans of sandstone sag and bear down on the working faces, like giant nutcrackers, or as bridges eventually fail, releasing much pent-up energy.

Jan 1, 1993

By Ravi Ray, Kostas Kaklis, Zach Agioutantis

"Modern underground mining is becoming more complex and geotechnically challenging. The engineer uses numerical, analytical, and data-driven methods (empirical and/or experimental) or their combination to overcome these challenges. Each method has its advantages and disadvantages. Nevertheless, given the amount of innovation and experience involved in developing each of these techniques, it will be prudent to use all their benefits rather than favoring one technique over the other. Pillars are the most important support element in an underground mine. A holistic geo-mechanical solution needs to be determined to design mine pillars using a proper sequence and exact mix of the three methods. A combination of these methods, in sync, can encompass the several advantages of the three methods while eliminating their disadvantages. This paper presents a conceptual three-tier solution to the pillar design problem, to improve its design pedigree, using a proper combination of numerical, analytical, and data-driven methods. At the focus of this proposed method lies the Ground Reaction Curve (GRC) concept.INTRODUCTIONAlthough the stability analysis of underground excavations is a challenging problem, its understanding has improved tremendously over recent years through the use of improved tools and techniques. The trial and error method was replaced with more scientific methods like the empirical and analytical methods that are still in use today. Empirical methods were developed based on large data sets obtained from experiments and observations (e.g., coal pillar strength equations). Analytical methods were developed based on mechanical understanding of stability (e.g., safety factor for vertical pillar loading, Convergence Confinement Method). Improvement in computing power and numerical techniques led to the development of several numerical methods (e.g., finite difference, finite element) suitable for geo-mechanical analysis.Each of these methods have certain advantages and limitations. Nevertheless, the user is often puzzled over the proper method selection and over the proper sequence of using them. This exercise becomes more challenging when different methods are combined, where, for example, one has to estimate the pillar strength based on empirical equations (e.g., Mark-Bieniawski coal pillar strength equation), determine the factor of safety based on an analytical approach (e.g., tributary area load divided by pillar strength), and analyze pillar-strata interactions using numerical analysis (see Esterhuizen, Mark, and Murphy, 2010b).Challenges increase when current pillar design methods are designed as passive structures to balance the fixed dead weight of the overburden. This classic suspension design approach does not recognize the self-stabilizing capacity of the overburden (Frith and Reed, 2018). A practical solution to address these issues is the use of numerical analysis. However, one should always keep in mind that the numerical modelling approach may have certain practical limitations."

Jan 1, 2019

By David H. Tang

Massive pillar failures were observed at two underground coal mines. The results of stability analysis using traditional pillar design formulae did not agree with the underground observations. Finite element models were used to analyze the causes and mechanisms of the pillar failures. The results were confirmed by the underground observations. Finally, the improved mine plan for each case was derived to ensure the stability of the underground structure.

Jan 1, 1990

The Telfer main dome open pit is operated by Newcrest Mining Limited at a current production rate of 50 Mt/a from a pit dimension compromising 2 km strike length, 1 km width and 250 m depth. As part of the refeasibility of the Telfer operation undertaken early this decade, Newcrest identified that an underground sublevel cave (SLC) operation along with an increased scale of open pit would support a new plant targeting the processing of gold and copper ore at 17 Mt/a rates. The SLC was initiated in late 2006 and broke into the open pit in late 2009. This situation is unique across the mining industry where a cave breakthrough was planned and occurred within an active large open pit operation. The SLC broke though into the west side of the Main Dome open pit into a specially prepared bench that was left at the 5384 RL of cut-back stage 3. A main haulage ramp is within 100 m from the edge of the cave breakthrough zone and this ramp passes down to the active levels which are progressing toward the 5200 RL. This paper presents insight into the mine planning and risk management associated with continued operation of the open pit operation while an active SLC breaks through. The cave breakthrough presents unique areas for risk management as there is potential for rapid propagation and subsidence. To support the undertaking, mine design and major hazard management planning has been carried out. Focus areas include; dual ramp system design, preloading the breakthrough area, monitoring of cave propagation and air gap using a seismic system and deep hole extensometers, wall stability and subsidence monitoring using radar and prism systems, and key trigger and response planning.

May 1, 2010

By Steven Hoerger

Newmont Mining has a large, integrated gold-mining operation in northern Nevada with several mines, stockpiles and processing facilities. There are more than 90 defined metallurgical ore types and more than 60 defined gold-recovery process options. Newmont developed a mine plan and process model to take better advantage of the available synergies at its Nevada mines. This plan includes a mixed integer and linear programming optimization tool. This system is maintained and operated by a Nevada planning group. Standard in-house planning software tools and methods have been implemented at all mine sites. These changes have allowed a reduction in mine engineering staff and have increased the effectiveness of mine planning.

Jan 1, 1999

By Alan D. Curtis

A standard planning block model for Phelps Dodge North America Operations has been developed to improve mine planning efficiency and performance in a skill starved environment. The model saves time on software management and training, consolidates data and standard information/output, enhances evaluation and strategic process, and improves communication between sites.

May 1, 2007

By P González, E Córdova, E Faundez

An integrated mine system must be capable of displaying and reporting valuable information that can be used to easily understand, manage and take action on the key parameters being reported.One of the key aspects of integration is the standardisation of the mine information up to a level capable of adapting the main characteristics of past projects at the mine and enforcing the same or higher standards for newer projects being developed.At the El Teniente mine, photogrammetry is used to map the advance of horizontal developments, and the constructed 3D representation of each face is then used by the geologists to obtain structural information about the areas being photographed.The mine realised that valuable mining information could also be extracted from the photogrammetry being applied, with three possible areas of development envisioned.The first area was creating a link between the developments being planned on a yearly and monthly basis and matching them with plan sections of the 3D developments of the system to account for any deviations.The second area was to use vertical sections of the 3D developments to estimate the overbreak of the excavations in different areas of the mine.The third area was the provision of a more detailed analysis of the sections so that they could provide information on the thickness of the shotcrete being applied.This paper presents the different alternatives being used and examines how the project is currently being developed and managed at the mine. It also looks at the challenges associated with implementing the reporting platform and the results being obtained.CITATION:Córdova, E, Benado, D, González, P and Faundez, E, 2016. Mine planning information from photogrammetry sources at the El Teniente Mine, in Proceedings Seventh International Conference and Exhibition on Mass Mining (MassMin 2016), pp 653–658 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

May 9, 2016

By Allan E. Koski

Ceveland-Cliffs uses a specialized software package in mine planning at the Empire Mine, an iron ore mine it manages on Michigan’s Marquette Iron Range. The application puts together years of mining experience that began in the early 1960s on the eastern end of the Marquette Range. The Empire Mine is in its 38th year of production. It uses the software to model a complex and highly variable low-grade magnetite ore body, capturing the economics of mining and processing to the final product. With special attention given to geostatistical methods, the software is used for all geologic modeling, ore reserve estimation, ore control, pit design and short- and long-range planning.

Jan 1, 2000

By Christopher J. Bise

INTRODUCTION A mine's power system represents the driving force behind all of the extraction and auxiliary operations, because the production and transportation of mined material and the operation of equipment, such as fans and pumps, are all dependent upon a power source. Once, compressed air was the primary power source in mining; today, however, electrical power dominates. This chapter reviews the basic theories of com- pressed-air and electrical power and provides several examples of applications in mine power systems. COMPRESSED-AIR POWER General Compressed air has been, and should continue to be, an important source of power in mining operations. It has been used as a means of blasting coal in conventional mining and is widely used to operate stopers, mucking machines, and other air tools in both coal and hard-rock mines. Such applications demonstrate the suitability of compressed air for applications requiring linear motion, but it is also utilized for its reliability and safety. A compressed-air system is composed of a compressor, a receiver, a distribution network, and the air-operated machines. A compressor takes in air at normal atmospheric pressure (free air) and compresses it to a higher discharge pressure. The discharge pressure must be high enough to overcome the friction in the distribution system of pipes and hoses and deliver the compressed air to the machines at the pressure recommended by the manufacturer. The most common type of compressor used in mines is the reciprocating compressor in which the air is compressed by a piston in a cylinder. An air receiver is a container or storage tank that is located in the distribution system between the compressor and the machines. It stores compressed air, when the full capacity of the compressor is not being used, and gives a more steady flow of air to the machines. The distribution network consists of pipes, Oalves, elbows, tees, and hoses that transmit the compressed air from the receiver to the machines in the mine. It is essential that the distribution system be designed with the proper sizes and lengths of pipe, hose, and other components to keep pressure losses well within allowable limits. The air-operated machines consist primarily of drifters, stopers, pluggers (sinkers), slushers, and several other pieces of equipment. Compressor Operation Every compressor is made up of one or more basic elements; a single element, or a group of elements in parallel, comprises a single-stage compressor. Many compression problems involve conditions beyond the practical capability of a single compression stage. Too great a compression ratio (absolute discharge pressure divided by absolute intake pressure) may cause excessive discharge temperatures or other design problems. It, therefore, may become necessary to combine elements or groups of elements in series to form a multi- stage unit, in which there will be two or more steps of compression. The number of stages commonly used in reciprocating compressors is as follows: Pressure Number of stages 0- 150 pig 1 80- 500 psig 2 500-2500 psig 3 2500-5000 psig 4 When pressure is referred to as pounds per square inch gage (psig), it means the pressure (in pounds per square inch) above barometric pressure as measured by a gage. The sum of barometric pressure and gage pressure is the absolute pressure (in pounds per square inch). The gas is frequently cooled between stages to reduce the temperature and volume entering the subsequent stages, thereby reducing the work required for compression. The basic reciprocating compression element is a single cylinder compressing on only one side of the piston (single-acting). A unit compressing on both sides of the piston (double-acting) consists of two basic single-acting elements operating in parallel in one casing. The reciprocating compressor uses automatic spring-loaded valves that open only when the proper differential pressure exists across the valves. Intake valves open when the pressure in the cylinder is slightly below the intake pressure. Discharge valves open when the pressure in the cylinder is slightly above the discharge pressure. In Fig. 1, Diagram A shows the basic element with the cylinder filled with air at atmospheric pressure. On the corresponding theoretical pressure-volume

Jan 1, 1986

By Christopher J. Bise

INTRODUCTION Before a mine is planned in detail, a preliminary analysis is often conducted. This preplanning permits the mining engineer to make a rapid assessment as to whether or not a particular mining property warrants further consideration. In fact, a properly conducted preplanning phase can come within 10% to 20% of the actual results, thereby saving the mining engineer valuable time before committing himself to a fine-tuned analysis. The questions to be answered by mine preplanning are (1) What will be the operating conditions for the mine? and (2) How long will it take to complete the project? To answer these questions, calculations dealing with reserve estimation, production planning, man- power planning, and project scheduling are conducted. The following sections discuss these various phases of mine preplanning in greater detail. RESERVE ESTIMATION The estimation of the various characteristics of a reserve, such as quantity, grade, and thickness, is an ongoing process throughout the life of a mining venture. However, the reserve-estimation phase of mine planning is more closely associated with the preplanning phase. There are many different techniques employed in reserve estimation of solid mineral deposits; variations among them are introduced because of such considerations as ease of application or level of accuracy. In any event, each technique is developed in the following manner: (1) the mineral body is represented pictorially and then subdivided into blocks related to one or more samples of exploration data, (2) the area and volume of each block is determined, (3) the volumes are converted to representative tonnages (or, for example, grades), and (4) the results are tabulated. To illustrate this procedure, the polygonal (area-of- influence) technique will be presented due to its ease of application, flexibility in dealing with different deposits, and general acceptance. The polygonal method assumes that all characteristics of a mineral body extend halfway between a point of observation and any other point of observation. The explored portion of the mineral body is represented by polygonal prisms whose depths relate to the characteristic in question (grade, thickness, etc.) and whose plane bases relate to the area of influence of each point of observation (drill hole, etc.) as shown in Fig. 1. The polygons must be constructed in a definite order, usually clockwise and from the periphery to the center of the deposit. Table 1 can then be used to calculate the characteristics in question. Since, by definition, the polygonal method assumes that the characteristics of a mineral body extend half- way between points of observation, it becomes readily apparent that the evaluation of a vertical-drill hole exploration program requires that the sides of the polygons be formed by the intersection of perpendicular bisectors (Fig. 2). Figs. 3 and 4 show correct and incorrect construction of the polygons. The criterion for correct construction of the polygons is that all points within a particular polygon must be closer to its rallying point than those located in any other polygon. This is clearly not the case for certain points that are located in the polygon containing rallying point B in Fig. 4. Although this method can be used where the drill holes are irregularly spaced, calculations become less tedious when a square net (Fig. 5) or a chessboard (Fig. 6) grid is adopted. The numbers shown in Figs. 5 and 6 represent the relative weight for each of the shaded areas. In general, the greater the number of polygons, the more continuous the mineral body, and the more regular the grid, then the more accurate the computations will be. PRODUCTION PLANNING Before an acceptable evaluation of the production potential of a mine can be determined, a thorough exploration program should be conducted. It seems obvious that the nature and properties of the deposit and adjacent strata, the presence of impurities, and other mining conditions should be adequately determined prior to production planning and equipment selection. The lack of sufficiently detailed knowledge of the many mining parameters has led to the failure of numerous operations. For example, targeted production tonnages and equipment sizes for a coal mine are intimately related to the seam thickness. Needless to say the quality of information that is gathered from an exploration program can have a tremendous impact on the production plan. Production plans are developed initially by determining reasonable shift tonnages per operating section. Most of the time these values are developed from his-

Jan 1, 1986

Newmont?s Twin Creeks Mine, located in northern Nevada, is producing gold ore from surface mining operations. The ore is currently processed at three different on site facilities depending on the ore type and the grade. The processing facilities operate under stringent geochemical blending constraints that must be met from mine ore deliveries and off site sourced ore. To analyze various strategic options, the technical team utilizes the mathematical optimization approach. However, due to the size and the complexity of the operation, there are unique challenges in optimizing life of mine production scheduling. This paper describes those challenges and the methodology developed to take advantage of different scheduling software systems that effectively compensate each other and result in reasonable guidance. The paper also describes how those scheduling results are reflected in detailed mine plan and cost estimate work.

Feb 27, 2013

By S. H. Ash

THE ANTHRACITE region of Pennsylvania contains over nine-tenths of the total anthracite deposits of North America and produces all but an insignificant proportion of the total output of anthracite in the Nation. The whole economy of the northeastern section of the United States depends, to a large extent, on the mining of Pennsylvania anthracite, which is shipped to New Jersey, New York, and New England and is a principal source of energy and heat for that entire region. The responsibility of the Federal Government for developing an engineering method that will prevent inundation of the Pennsylvania anthracite mines and keep them in operation has long been recognized. To obtain a reliable picture of the anthracite-mine-water problem and to solve that problem, it is necessary to have factual data on the volume and the quality and character of the mine water handled by the pumping plants in the anthracite region, as well as the kinds of pumps utilized and problems concerning their operation.

Jan 1, 1953

By Rayleen Riske

Why do we look for better reconciliation when times get tough? Why wait? Mine reconciliation should be a priority throughout the good times too. In fact, with good reconciliation, those good times are going to be even better and will help pave the way to success through those preventable bad times. Reconciliation throughout the entire mining value chain requires the capture, validation, and analysis of copious amounts of data. This task can be daunting for a team in a small mine, let alone reconciling across a suite of large mines. This paper will outline the different ways we can reconcile across the value chain, why we should reconcile over differing periods of time and how Snowden?s solution to proving reconciliation can be a simpler, reliable and transparent process. Snowden?s Reconcilor is proving to be a valuable tool on any mining scale, by capturing, validating, sorting and reporting data for timely decision making by the site geologist through to corporate management. By instigating vigorous reconciliation, you are setting your mine up for the future. Not only will you have the means to analyse your current processes and measures, but you will have the opportunity to identify and improve your mine?s performance from the resource model through to the final product.

May 1, 2010

By L Langer, R Simcock, M Davis

Rehabilitation of mining sites helps to achieve the purpose 5(2c) of The Resource Management Act 1991 û æavoiding, remedying, or mitigating any adverse effects of activities on the environmentÆ. The environmental outcomes for recent and current mining operations on the West Coast are variable. There are some exemplary mining operations which are restoring or even improving land use and environmental factors in the region, particularly those operated by the larger mining companies. There are also examples of an exploitative mentality where the environment and land have been severely degraded by mining activities. Technology has been developed to prevent a repetition of the historical destruction of the environment through mining. Failure to rehabilitate mined land is no longer acceptable to the New Zealand public in the 1990s and damages the credibility of the mining industry. Examples of successful mine site rehabilitation to pastoral farming and to production or plantation forestry are illustrated from the alluvial gold mining industry. Planning, sequencing of operations, the utilization of sailor plant growth materials, and aftercare are key factors in successful land rehabilitation to these productive uses. There is also a recent focus on restoring indigenous forests and wetlands at both coal and gold mining sites, particularly for mines on or adjacent to the conservation estate. The results of scientific research and efforts by the industry on techniques for rehabilitating rainforest and pakihi wetland after mining are presented, particularly from the Giles Creek Dunoille Coal Mine. There is a need for further research and trials to apply and extend rehabilitation techniques to other geological and environmental situations, particularly to mines in mountainous areas and to difficult environments like the coal measures ecosystems of the plateaux above Westport.

Jan 1, 1996

By R Simcock

Why Rehabilitate? Legislative Requirement Land rehabilitation is a condition of resource consents for mining. Clause 17 (1) of the Resource Management Act 1991 (duty to avoid, remedy, or mitigate adverse effects) provides the legislative basis for local authorities to impose resource consent conditions requiring land to be rehabilitated to approved uses during and after mining.

Jan 1, 1997

By S. E. Phillipson

The Mine Safety and Health Administration?s (MSHA) Roof Control Division (RCD) collects a variety of geological and engineering information pertaining to mining conditions in surface and underground mines throughout the United States. Recently, lineament analyses, trends of geologic structures, and inferred stress directions based on mapping at mines with problematic ground conditions, have been integrated into a GIS. The incorporation of different kinds of information into the same geographic coordinates and map projection, placed on digital geologic maps, allows site specific data to be evaluated in a regional geospatial context, identifying trends in the orientation of horizontal stress or patterns of structural geologic features. As more information is collected, the GIS will evolve as a tool for district- and basin-wide evaluations of controls on ground instability, and may evolve into a predictive tool for some kinds of geologic hazards. In addition to the geologic and geotechnical evaluations, the GIS also serves as a searchable database of previous mine investigations. The database can be searched for a variety of criteria, and the results displayed in real geographic coordinates to find the locations of previously visited mines or to evaluate mine fatality and injury data. This not only allows old reports to be found, but also places the information in a geospatial context with respect to neighboring mines or geographic areas. The GIS also has the capability to serve as a digital mine map repository, where maps can be stored in digital, georeferenced format for display in relation to each other and various themes of interest. This allows evaluation of multiple seam mining interactions and proximity to other mines, and on a national level could serve as an abandoned mine map database.

Jan 1, 2008

By N. M. Skarbøvig

Safety nets have been used selectively in several South African mines over the years. Recently, however, an increased emphasis on mine safety has seen a resurgence of their utilization underground. This renewed interest has, however, also raised questions about the design and performance of these nets and their practical applications underground; these are the subjects of this paper. Generally, mine safety nets are used to protect personnel from falling rock in temporarily supported development ends, tunnels, ASGs and stopes. These diverse applications each require specific net designs, resulting in a wide product range. As a rule, however, mine safety nets need to carry specified static or dynamic loads with the least possible deformation. Because of the application-specific characteristics of mine safety nets, there is no South African national standard for them. Consequently, neither the SABS, nor the CSIR, performs standard tests on these components. In 2007, therefore, SIMRAC made available their Savuka facility for the testing of mine safety nets; the Savuka drop test became the accepted industry test standard for mine safety nets. From late 2007 to mid 2009, Norsenet, in collaboration with SRK Consulting, the designated operators of the site, conducted approximately 200 tests, which formed the core of Norsenet's database of safety net performance under various loading conditions. The test specimens comprised a wide range of net materials and config¬urations; the materials included: high density polyethylene, polypropylene, polyester, nylon, as well as a blend of polyester and polypropylene used primarily for reinforcement ropes. Net configurations encompassed the following parameters: net type, i.e., knotted nets or sewn nets; net strand type, i.e., braids, twines, or webbing; strand size; mesh size; mesh orientation, i.e., parallel or oblique to the net edge; net edge reinforcement, i.e., knotted, tied, with or without reinforcement ropes; internal reinforcement ropes, i.e., diagonal ropes and/or orthogonal ropes; as well as net attachment options, including loops and chainlinks. From the number of variables listed above, and the limited number of tests available, it can be appreciated that the findings of the test series required careful scrutiny. Nevertheless, principal performance factors clearly emerged: besides the obvious net mesh variables, such as net strand material, strand diameter and mesh size, it was the configuration of the reinforcement ropes and their attachment to the net panel which had the strongest influence on net performance. All the structural elements of a safety net need to work together to transfer the imposed load from the net panel, through the reinforcement ropes, to the net attachment points. In this load transference chain, the weakest link limits the strength of the structure. From this development work, Norsenet has gained valuable expertise to custom-design and manufacture nets to clients' specifications. The examples presented in the paper will also show the experience acquired in the installation of nets underground. Future work will include the establishment of a state-of-the-art net testing facility at Norsenet's factory in Vredenburg.. Keywords Mine safety net, safety net, protective device, mine safety, safety net design, safety net performance, safety net applications.

Jan 1, 2011

By Sharpe E. J

The Triton lode is a schistose feldspar biotite chlorite rock with quartz, carbonate, pyrite and some pyrrhotite. Its more chloritic sections strongly resemble the enclosing greenstones, its more feldspathic portions are indistinguishable from the flne-grained phases of the porphyry dyke into which the southern extremity of the ore body merges. The ore body' has a length of 880 ft. and an average width of I2t ft.; in places this widens to as much as 30 ft.The average dip is 85° west and pitch of the ore shoot 75° south.METHOD OF SAMPLING.With the exception of a limited amount of channel sampling (a reference to which is made elsewhere in this paper) all the sampling is by chip sample.The samplers use a hammer weighing approximately 11 lb. and chip directly into the sample bags. Sampling is generally carried out over 3-ft. sections and portions thereof to the nearest half foot-thus a face 8t ft. wide is divided up into two sections of 3 ft. each and one section of 2 ft.-no measurements of less than 4 ft. are used and calculations are all in feet and dwt. per long ton.In the oxidised stopes wp.ere the lode is much narrower, .i.e., 6 ft., sampling is over 2-ft. sections. All borehole samples are over 2-ft. sections, this corresponding approximately to steel changes.(a) DEVELOPMENT SAMPLING.Driving.-This is done by following the east wall and each face is sampled-this corresponding to an advance of 5 ft. If the full width o,f the lode is not exposed boreholes...

Jan 1, 1938

Many mining operations generate seismic signals. They come from blasting and from underground mine failures such as rockbursts, longwall first caves, coal bumps and pillar collapses. Traditionally, seismic motions have been of concern on a local scale because they could create damage to structures at the mine site or at neighboring locations. Recently, there has been much interest in the Comprehensive Nu-clear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). It prohibits any kind of nuclear explosion, anywhere. So distinguishing signals of mining operations from a possible nuclear explosion becomes important. An international monitoring system (IMS) is being implemented to verify the Treaty when it is ratified. It includes a large number of seismic stations capable of recording signals at regional (200 to 2,000 km or 124 to 1,240miles) and teleseismic (more than 2,000 km or 1,240 miles) distances.

Jan 1, 2000

By S. M. Spottiswoode

Much as one hopes to predict whether damaging seismicity might occur somewhere in the next shift, this is not possible at present. Recently, an analysis of seismicity at two mines has shown that a small increase in seismicity occasionally occurs before both large and small events. This analysis is extended here to five mines, with the same results. Earthquake seismologists forecast hazard in terms of the average incidence of earthquakes over the last 50 years, adjusted on an hourly basis according to the possibility of aftershocks of events that have happened. The rate of seismicity in any area remains approximately constant when expressed as seismicity per area mined, or better still, per unit of elastic strain energy released. It is suggested that seismic hazard in mines be estimated using historical seismicity and forward modelling, adjusted according to the possibility of aftershocks. In summary, medium-term forecasting of seismicity is viable; short-term prediction of large events is not.

Jan 1, 2010