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Callow, John M. Notes on Flotation. Discussed by R. H. Richards, Joseph W. Richards, Leonard Waldo, George Van Arsdale. 881 Horwood, E. J. Broken Hill Underground Mining Methods. Discussed by Albert R. Ledoux, W. L. Saunders 885 Lindgren, Waldemar, and Ross, Clyde P. The Iron Deposits of Daiquiri, Cuba. Discussed by Waldemar Lindgren, Max Roesler, Benjamin B. Lawrence, Louis C. Graton, Harrison Souder, Charles P. Berkey, Alfred C. Lane, John D. Irving. 886 Powers, Sidney and Lane, Alfred C. Magmatic Differentiation in Effusive Rocks. Discussed by N. L. Bowen, Alfred C. Lane, Sidney Powers 893 Tolman, C. F. Observations on Certain Types of Chalcocite and Their Characteristic Etch Patterns. Discussed by Louis C. Graton, Alfred C. Lane, Joseph T. Singewald, Jr., Charles P. Berkey, E. Posnjak, E. T. Allen, H. F. Merwin, C. F. Tolman, Jr. 895 Warren, H. M., Biesecker, A. S., and Powell, E. J. Tests on Various Motor-Driven Equipment Used in the Preparation of Anthracite Coal. Discussed by R. V. Morris, William Kent. H. M. Warren. K. A. Pauly 901

Jan 5, 1916

By H. C. Chao, W. F. Hosford, L. H. Van Vlack

The negative "plastic Poisson's ratio" suggested in earlier studies of Mus deformation is analyzed, and the results are verified experimentally with NaCl crystals. In the early stages of deformation where the primary {110}(110) slip predominates, compression along. the [001] direction produces contraction along the lateral [011] direction plus a compensating expansion along. the [100] direction. With additional strain, the primary slip is supplemented by secondary {111}(110) slip so that the above contraction diminishes and a more typical deformation appears. THE shape change of bee and fee crystals deformed by compression or tension along [011] has been analyzed in some detail and shown to be responsible for the development of peculiar microstructures in [011] fiber textured polycrystals of these metals.1'3 This paper concerns the unusual shape change accompanying [011] compression of NaCl crystals. It is the direct outgrowth of an earlier investigation of the deformation of manganese sulfide inclusions in steel.3,4 In that investigation, cylindrical specimens of steel containing small oriented crystals of MnS were prepared by powder metallurgy and plastically compressed. The flow of the inclusions was determined relative to that of the steel by sectioning the composite and measuring the length-to-width ratio L/W of the inclusion and diameter-to-height D/H ratio of the steel cylinder on the plane of section. These L/W ratios, normalized by dividing by the initial LO/WO ratio of the inclusion, were compared with the normalized D/H ratio of the steel cylinder. Of particular interest here are the deformation characteristics of an inclusion oriented with [Oil] parallel to the compression axis. When measurements were made on sections parallel to the (100) plane of the inclusion, the L/IV ratios were only slightly in excess of unity, indicating a high apparent hardness of the [011] criented inclusion. However, measurements on a (011) plane of section resulted in L/W ratios which were much larger, Fig. 1. These observations prompted an analysis of the strains resulting from slip in an MnS crystal compressed along [011.]. CRYSTALLOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS Manganese sulfide has the NaCl crystal structure, and the predominant slip system is {110}(110). A secondary system, {111}(110), has also been reported.= {110}(110) Slip. When a crystal is subject to a uni-axial compressive stress 011 along [011], four slip systems, (101)[101.], (101)[101.], (110)[i10], and (110) [ 110], will be equally stressed with a shear stress t = 0.2 011 while the other two {110}( 110) systems will be unstressed. The normal strain En along any reference axis n resulting from slip is given by Schmid's law: en = S COS ?in COS in ?i 111 where ?in and +in are the angles between n and the i slip direction and n and the i slip plane normal, respectively, and where ?i is the shear strain on the i slip system, For the four active slip systems above, the cos ?in cos +in terms are all equal when the reference axes are the [011] compressive axis, [011] and [ 100]. Eq. [I.] therefore reduces to en - cos ?n cos +ny [2] where y =S?i for all slip systems. Substituting the appropriate angles, Eon = 0.25? 110 eon - 0.25y110 [3] €100 = -0.50y 110 The interesting feature of Eqs. [3] is that they predict that the strains in the [011] and [011] directions, resulting from {110}(110) slip, are equal and of the same sign. Thus when a crystal is compressed along [011], it will contract along the lateral [oil] direction

Jan 1, 1967

Jan 1, 1946

Jan 1, 1911

South Carolina Geological Survey, University of South Carolina, Columbia, S. C. Stephen Taber, State Geologist Two bulletins have been issued by the South Carolina State Geological Survey: Bulletin 1, A preliminary report on the clays of South Carolina (1908), and 2, Catalogue of the mineral localities of South Carolina. Members of the staff of the Department of Geology of the University have published many papers which have appeared in print from various sources

Jan 1, 1933

Jan 1, 1902

By R. M. Goldhoff, H. J. Beattie

The high-temperature properties of a 1 Cr-Mo-V forging steel are described. A series of controlled heat treatments was designed to delineate the effects of austenitizing and tempering treatments, temile strength, and grain size on such properties. Studies indicate that the mechanical properties and their varlations under creep can be described by the initial metallurgical structures and their changes droPirzg exposure, particulavly the carbide reactions. Such structures are described and correlated with the mechanical properties. FOR many years the large steam turbine industry has relied on the 1 Cr-Mo-V type forging steel for critical applications. Because of its adequate heat resistance and relative economy, it is currently in use in the temperature range up to about 1050" to 1075°F. Attempts to understand the large property variations attainable in this steel involve the structural modifications due to the wide latitude in its heat treatment. The heat treatment essentially involves a two-step process which includes solution-ing of carbides in the austenite range followed by a suitable tempering treatment below the critical to adjust the level of properties. The latter step is referred to as "secondary hardening" and is basically an ordinary aging reaction involving carbides. In the commercial heat treatment of large components of such steel, homogenizing and stress-relief anneals may be included and have some importance in determining subsequent properties. Several studies of the engineering properties of this steel as a function of transformation micro-structure have been reported.1 3 However, in this steel the carbide reactions, which are a function of composition and heat treatment, appear to be the property-controlling factor rather than the micro-structure defined as a transformation product. Thus, the tempering resistance of this type of alloy steel is mainly a function of the size and distribution of alloy carbides.4 However, it is also necessary to consider the stability of the microstructure and the effect of dynamic carbide reactions on subsequent properties. It is the purpose of this paper to show the interdependence of properties and corresponding structures, particularly carbide reactions, developed for a limited set of controlled heat-treatment conditions applied to 1 Cr-Mo-V steel. MATERIALS AND PROCEDURE The material for this work came from a large production forging whose chemical composition is shown in Table I. The property data accumulated on this steel as a function of heat treatment were room-temperature tensile and smooth- and notch-bar creep rupture at 1050°F (notch geometry: shank diameter = 0.357 in., depth = 50 pct, radius = 0.005 in.). To achieve controlled structural variations the temperature and time of both austenitizing and tempering were varied in a manner to produce a series of eight steels each at one of two grain sizes and one of two hardness levels in proper combination for valid comparisons. This will be clear upon examination of Table I. Structural studies involved the use of optical and electron microscopy as well as X-ray and selected-area electron diffraction. To reveal the nature of carbide precipitations, electrolytic extraction techniques were used with subsequent analysis of the residue by X-ray diffraction. Weight losses of the steel specimens during electrolysis were measured and successive chemical fractionations of the residues were applied and checked by X-ray examination. The details of fine structural distributions, morphologies, and crystallography of the precipitates as well as dislocation distributions were investigated by examining in the electron microscope three common types of preparation. a) Relief Replicas. Mechanically polished sections were etched in 2 pct nital, replicated with a nitrocellulose film, which was shadowed by chromium vapor deposited at a glancing angle of 20 deg. b) Extraction Replicas. A thin film of carbon was vapor-deposited on the polished and etched surface. The carbon films were then etched off and gathered on electron-microscope supporting grids. The carbides left imbedded in the carbon replica in their original distribution were then examined crystallo-graphically by selected-area electron diffraction. c) Thin Films. Specimens were mechanically ground and polished down to a thickness of 0.001 to 0.003 in. Final thinning was done electrolytically in a "chrome-acetic" electrolyte. When holes began to appear in the foil, the voltage was interrupted and applied in several 1-sec bursts. Sections of the foil between holes were thin enough to pass a 100-kv electron beam that carries an image.

Jan 1, 1965

Jan 1, 1923

Jan 1, 1902

By F. S. Crawford

IRON and copper are mined in the Lake Superior district. The iron mines of the district have the best safety record for that industry in the country as a whole, while the copper mines of the district rank second in two of the four years recorded (Table 1). In Utah copper comes mainly from open-pit mines, which enables that state to lead easily in safety. All of the Michigan production comes from deep under-ground workings. About 60 per cent of the iron miners in St. Louis County, Minnesota, are employed at open-pit mines; this favorably affects the combined open-pit and underground accident-frequency rate, as this county pro-vides most of the Minnesota-mined iron ore. In Michigan, however, there are few open-pit mines, the bulk of the production coming from underground mines, while all of the Wisconsin production, just across the state line from Michigan, is from underground mines. In spite of the fact that fewer mines in Michigan use the safer open-pit method, the iron-mining industry of that state maintained a consistently low record from 1931 to 1934; however, it was many points behind its nearest com petitor, Minnesota, with its much greater production from open-pit mines.

Jan 1, 1939

By F. Louis Grammer

The difference between blast-furnace gas and ordinary producer-gas is chiefly that blast-furnace ga,s is higher in CO2 and lower in hydrocprbons and hydrogen, as is shown in Table I. Table I.— Volume-Composition of Producer-Gas and Blast-Furnace Gas. Producer-Gas. Blast-Furnace Gas. Per Cent. Per Cent. (Volume.) (Volume.) CO......22 to 33 25.5 CO2........ 6 to 3 13.0 H...13 to 7 1.5 CH4........ 3 to 1.5 0.0 N..54 to 60 60.0 If natural gas, water-gas, or by-product coke-oven gas be available, blast-furnace gas can be made to resemble very closely in calorific value the average producer-gas by merely mixing in one of these products, which are richer in hydrocarbons and hydrogen. Blast-furnace gas, however, possesses a virtue which is sometimes absent in producer-gas, especially with coals very high in sulphur—namely, that blast-furnace gas is relatively free from sulphur. In some regions the sulphur in coal is an acute problem, and it is highly desirable to find uses for the mine-products which are specially high in sulphur-content. An advantage would be gained if the coal were coked before charging into the gas-producers, but this adds to the expense. Sulphur may be partly eliminated from coal by washing it, the success depending upon the form in which the sulphur occurs, and upon the efficiency of the washer, but it cannot always be removed to the extent desired at most American plants. It is not practicable to remove all the sulphur from producer-gas by washing it, though Mr. Reinhardt, of Germany,

Jan 1, 1909

By B. F. Tillson

Mining may be defined as a general term for the working of valuable deposits of minerals, either organic or inorganic in origin, for their removal from the crust of the earth. Besides subsurface excavations, mining generically includes opencuts, clay pits and stone quarries, oil wells, sulphur wells, salt wells, placers, coal stripping, and the leaching of ore bodies. The origin of the word "mine" or "mining" is a matter of conjecture. A Celtic origin has been suggested since the Irish word mein, or the mwyn, meant ore, but it seems to have come from an olf French verb mineor, which meant to excavate, to make an underground passage as in the military appraoch to a fortification, sometimes called ?sapping.?

Jan 1, 1949

By T. F. Witherbee

Success in this operation is much promoted by adhering to a definite plan. Random work is of little account. In general, anything done that will enable the blast to pass through the obstruction, providing the melted products can be got away from the tuyeres, is all that is necessary. Hence the utility of high explosives in breaking up the chilled mass in the hearth. (This, by the way, should be done with the wind on, so as to prevent the filling of the tuyeres with the usual rush of cinder following the explosion.) If from any cause it is not expedient to use explosives, the simple but very effective instrument known as the kerosene or hydro-carbon blow-pipe can be depended upon to perforate the contents of a blastfurnace hearth to any extent required. It consists, as used in the Champlain district (first by Mr. Charles H. Foote), of several pieces of gas-pipe, liberally supplied with elbows (five in number) so as to be flexible; one end being connected to a tuyere-stock and the other brought to bear upon the place to be melted out. A 1/4-inch pipe leads from the last length, or blow-pipe proper, to a reservoir of kerosene or crude oil, set high enough to overcome the blast-pressure, This 1/4-inch pipe should have a valve conveniently located to regulate the flow of oil, and also another next to the reservoir. With a good hot blast and a surprisingly small quantity of oil, this apparatus will melt, burn or mechanically dislodge anything around a blast-furnace hearth excepting firebrick and water-cooled castings or plates. It may be helped by vigorous prodding with a suitable steel bar, to detach the fused but sometimes sticky material. A very good way to operate on a chilled hearth with it, is to open up a hole from a cinder- or iron-notch to the nose of the most convenient tuyere and then make a blow-pipe of the tuyere by turning

Jan 1, 1885

By AIME AIME

[The American Institute of -Mining Engineers does not assume responsibility for any statement of fact or opinion advanced in its papers or discussions.] A detailed list of the' papers contained in this section is given in the Table of Contents, pages i. and ii. Comments or criticisms upon all papers given in this section whether private corrections of typographical or other errors or communications for publication as "Discussions," or independent papers on the same or a related subject, are earnestly invited. ERRATA. The following corrections and. additions to papers contained in Bi-Monthly Bulletin No. 7, January, 1906,-were received too late for incorporation in the text of said papers ; but will be introduced in their: proper places: in the volume of the Transactions: These corrections are here published in order to bring them -promptly to the notice of the Institute. Page Line Cover, title-page and at the top of pages in the preliminary section "No. 1 " should be "No. 7 ". 1. Bottom For :" Dr. P. H. Shimer" read "Dr. P. W. Shinier " 69. Fig. 3. "N" of compass-record should be ?S". A new block for this illustration has been made as shown on p. xxxviii of this Bulletin. 78. 3 from bottom. For " slope " read " stope." 89. Fig. 2, small diagram in upper left-hand corner. Omit use 50 ft. to 1" scale ". For "Thro' 250 " read " Thro' 200 ". Add dotted line extend¬ing from upper right-hand corner of the square

Mar 1, 1906

By R. D. Sprague, C. B. Richardson

The year 1938 was the most active and successful in the history of the oil industry in southern Louisiana. Drilling showed a 16 per cent increase over that of 1937, with a total of 538 wells drilled, which yielded 315 oil wells, 19 distillate wells, 4 gas wells and 200 dry holes. Nineteen new fields were discovered during the year, all but three of which were completed by plugging back to sands previously drilled through. Electrical logging played a large part in these new discoveries as well as in the discovery of new sands during routine development of fields. Fourteen of the new discoveries produced oil, and five produced only gas and distillate. Southern Louisiana continues to lead the world in depth of drilling, which is in part due to the great thickness of comparatively young deltaic sediments near the coast and the existence of numerous sands. The present development is rather evenly distributed over a coastal strip 100 miles wide. New Fields North Tepetate, Acadia Parish.—Atlantic Refining Company's No. 1 Klumpp was completed for a new field through perforations from 7960 to 7970 ft. The initial production was 65 bbl. of 54" gravity distillate and 4 million cubic feet of gas daily through a 1/4-in. choke with tubing pressure of 2850 Ib. and casing pressure of 2930 lb. The well is in see. 12, 7 S., 2 W., just north of Tepetate field. It was drilled to a depth of 8705 ft. and plugged back for its final completion. Atlantic's NO. 2 was completed in a new sand at 8300 ft., also for distillate. South Crowley, Acadia Parish.—Humble Oil and Refining Company's No. 1 Boyd Finch was completed in July 1938, as an oil well through perforations from 7318 to 7325 ft. after plugging from a total depth of 10,222 ft. After making several hundred barrels of oil, the well went to

Jan 1, 1939

By C. B. Richardson, R. D. Sprague

The year 1938 was the most active and successful in the history of the oil industry in southern Louisiana. Drilling showed a 16 per cent increase over that of 1937, with a total of 538 wells drilled, which yielded 315 oil wells, 19 distillate wells, 4 gas wells and 200 dry holes. Nineteen new fields were discovered during the year, all but three of which were completed by plugging back to sands previously drilled through. Electrical logging played a large part in these new discoveries as well as in the discovery of new sands during routine development of fields. Fourteen of the new discoveries produced oil, and five produced only gas and distillate. Southern Louisiana continues to lead the world in depth of drilling, which is in part due to the great thickness of comparatively young deltaic sediments near the coast and the existence of numerous sands. The present development is rather evenly distributed over a coastal strip 100 miles wide. New Fields North Tepetate, Acadia Parish.—Atlantic Refining Company's No. 1 Klumpp was completed for a new field through perforations from 7960 to 7970 ft. The initial production was 65 bbl. of 54" gravity distillate and 4 million cubic feet of gas daily through a 1/4-in. choke with tubing pressure of 2850 Ib. and casing pressure of 2930 lb. The well is in see. 12, 7 S., 2 W., just north of Tepetate field. It was drilled to a depth of 8705 ft. and plugged back for its final completion. Atlantic's NO. 2 was completed in a new sand at 8300 ft., also for distillate. South Crowley, Acadia Parish.—Humble Oil and Refining Company's No. 1 Boyd Finch was completed in July 1938, as an oil well through perforations from 7318 to 7325 ft. after plugging from a total depth of 10,222 ft. After making several hundred barrels of oil, the well went to

Jan 1, 1939

Dr. Robert Bell died on June 18, 1917, at Rathwell, Manitoba, in the seventy-seventh year of his age. He was born in Toronto on June 3, 1841, and was a son of the Reverend Andrew Bell of the Free Church of Scotland. He was educated at the Grammar School of the County of Prescott, Ontario, and subsequently at McGill University and the University of Edinburgh. While still a boy of 15 years of age, he joined the Geological Survey of Canada, under Sir William Logan, in the capacity of Junior Assistant, and was rapidly promoted in the service, where lie remained-with but one short interval-for over fifty years, retiring as Chief Geologist and Acting Director in the year 1908. He married Agnes, daughter of the late Alexander Smith, of Westbourne, Glasgow, and Auchentroig, Stirlingshire, and is survived by one son and three daughters. Practically nothing was known of the geology of Canada, and very little with reference to its geography, when Mr. William E. (afterward Sir William) Logan was called upon to undertake the organization of the Geological Survey of Canada, and as its first Director to carry out the mapping of this vast area and the examination of its mineral resources. Dr. Bell's work as a member of Sir William Logan's staff in these early years consisted, therefore, exclusively of geological reconnaisance and geographical exploration. Even in later years, and until his administrative work confined him to his office, Dr. Bell's work remained essentially of this character. The exploratory traverses and track surveys which lie carried out were, chiefly within the area of the great Laurentian protaxis or Canadian Shield, which forms such a striking feature and which has played and will continue to play so important a role in shaping Canadian history and in influencing the character of the Canadian people. Dr. Bell's lines of exploration crossed and re-crossed this area from the Atlantic Coast to the Great Lakes on its western border, and from Lake Huron and Lake Superior on the south to the Arctic Sea, following the water ways of this great land. He also worked along the coast line when acting as geologist and naturalist to the "Neptune" Expedition in 1884, and to the "Alert" Expedition in 1885, both of which carried out explorations in Hudson's Bay and Hudson's Straits; also on the "Diana" Expedition in 1897, when he surveyed the coast of Baffin Land, and was one of the first white men who penetrated to the great 'lakes in the interior of that immense

Jan 11, 1917

By J. P. Hirth, G. M. Pound

The flux of evaporation J from {loo) , {111), and (110) planes of silver single crystals and from poly crystalline specimens was measured at 744°C under a high vacuum using a time average weight loss method. The evaporation coefficient a was computed from the measured flux and vapor pressure data through the relationship J = aPe/21rmkT. The evaporation coefficients for the close packed planes and the poly crystalline specimens were found to be about 0.4 providing tentative confirmation of the theoretical limiting law for evaporation of metal crystals, a = 73(P/Pe) + % . The (110) planes faceted to form (111) planes, resulting in a greater evaporating area and larger a . The evaporation morphology of the plane surfaces and the surfaces of spherical single crystals is described in some detail. RECENTLY a detailed theoretical analysis of the mechanism and kinetics of metal crystal evaporation was made.1'2 A mechanism for vaporization involving the recession of monatomic ledges across a metal surface was deduced, and evaporation rate equations were derived by considering the dynamics of these ledges. In most metals, the process of evaporation is one of dissociation of atoms from ledges, surface diffusion, and desorption. The gross vaporization rate is controlled by the surface diffusion and desorption rates. It was shown that the monatomic ledges, under the action of surface diffusion gradients, tend to assume a terminal velocity and spacing. Further, it was shown that crystal edges and grain boundaries are a ready source for monatomic ledges. In the case of evaporation of large, perfect crystals with clean, low-index surfaces, the kinetic treatment1 leads to a limiting law for crystal evaporation: where J is the gross flux of vaporization, a is the evaporation coefficient, Pe the equilibrium vapor pressure, m the atomic mass, k Boltzmann's constant, T the absolute temperature, and P the actual pressure of vapor over the crystal surface. Imperfections such as grain boundaries, pores, cracks, and macroscopic steps should have the effect of causing positive departures from this limiting law. Such an imperfection is a source for monatomic ledges, which, near their origin, are closely spaced and thus give rise to higher evaporation rates there. However, under many experimental conditions,' this effect should be negligible due to the relatively low concentration of imperfections. In general, a more important cause of positive departure should be screw dislocations, and the effect of these has been considered in some detai1.2,3 Monatomic ledges emanate from points where the surface is intersected by a dislocation with a screw component normal to the surface. The dynamics of ledges arising from a screw dislocation are similar to those of ledges arising from a crystal edge. There is a perturbed region near the origin where the monatomic ledges are, under certain experimental conditions, closely spaced and the

Jan 1, 1960

By H. W. Gillett

Unlike most previous Howe lecturers, I had not the good fortune to be associated with Henry Marion Howe, nor to be directly one of his students. Yet, through his writings, he has been my teacher, as he has of all American metallurgists. Instructive as his writings are—I use the present tense because Howe thought so keenly and reasoned so surely, seeing clearly, as if by intuition, what was hazy to lesser minds, that his writings are still vital—it is not those books and papers, nor even the minds he trained in his classes, that were his most outstanding service. It was the spirit of Howe in his approach to the problems of metallurgy, his broad-mindedness and fairness, his recognition of the need for theories and hypotheses to explain metallurgical phenomena, his willingness to use them as servants, as well as his questioning attitude—his refusal to accept them as masters—that comprise his greatest service. This most thoroughly warrants the honor the Institute pays each year to his memory. These traits I so respect and honor in any man that I glory in this opportunity to do reverence to him in whom they were so notably united. Howe's Discussion of a Creep Problem I have often wished that Howe were still with us to turn his keen insight upon the problems of the use of metals at high temperatures, a field much studied but still very hazy. Indeed, 53 years ago, in a paper1 before this Institute, Howe stated a problem closely allied to some that still perplex metallurgists and engineers dealing with the high-temperature field. Howe was intrigued by a report2 from another old master, Robert Henry Thurston, on the behavior of annealed vs. cold-drawn iron wire, and in order to broaden the foundation for metallurgical generalization, Howe made experiments of his own on copper and silver. In these tests by Thurston and by Howe, the wires were rapidly loaded to determine the

Jan 1, 1939

By Henry R. Linden

The demand for natural gas continues to increase at higher than anticipated rates, partly because of its widening price advantage over most other fossil fuels when the cost of air-pollution control is included. However, there are clear indications that the natural gas supply from the conliguous 48 states and continental shelves will not keep up with this rapid growth in demand indefinitely. Projections are presented which define the extent of potential deficiencies from the 1970's to the year 2000. Among the sources of supplemental gas - imported pipeline natural gas from Canada and Mexico, tanker import of liquefied natural gas, and synthetic pipeline gas from coal and oil shale -by far the most abundant at potentially competitive costs is pipeline gas from coal. The state of development and relative economics of the various coal gasification processes are reviewed. It is shown that synthetic pipeline gas could become a very substantial market for bituminous coal and lignite at current mine-mouth prices - 60-70 million tons of coal for each trillion cubic feet of synthetic pipeline gas produced. This corresponds to only slightly more than the current annual increase in gas demand. Although annual discoveries (gross additions to proved reserves) of natural gas in the United States are still on a general upward trend from the current level of 22 trillion cu ft annually, most forecasters do not expect this to increase substantially in the foreseeable future. For example, the updated (to include 1966 and 1967 data) mathematical model of natural gas discovery and production in the U.S. developed by the Institute of Gas Technology (IGT)' projects that discoveries will level out at about 25 trillion cu ft annually in the late 1970's and during the 1980's and then decline to about 21 trillion cu ft by the year 2000 (Fig. 1). This adds up to a new supply for the period 1968-2000 of about 790 trillion cu ft. Experts who usually reflect the producers' viewpoint, such as Radford L. Schantz of Foster Associates,* are relatively more pessimistic. In contrast, a forecast just made by the U.S. Dept. of the Interior is much more optimistic.3 It assumes an increase in gas discoveries of 2.2% per year over the period 1965-80, reaching about 30 trillion cu ft in 1980. If this rate of increase were extended to the year 2000, annual discoveries would reach 46 trillion cu ft at that time, for a total over the period 1968-2000 of about 1100 trillion cu ft. To these forecasts of new gas discoveries must be added proved reserves of roughly 290 trillion cu ft,4 bringing total U.S. supplies for the rest of the century to nearly 1100 trillion cu ft (IGT) and possibly as high as 1400 trillion cu ft (U.S. Dept. of the Interior). This is approximately the same range as that of two estimates of total remaining recoverable natural gas supply: Potential Gas Committee, 980 trillion cu ft5 and IGT, 1450 trillion cu ft.6 Only the 1965 estimate by the U.S. Geological Survey7 suggests that economically recoverable natural gas supplies will not be exhausted around the end of the century. These forecasts are, naturally, based on the assumption that changes in technological, economic, and regulatory environment as they affect the gas industry will be of an evolutionary, not revolutionary, nature. The various forecasts of potential natural gas supply must now be compared to forecasts of natural gas demand (Table I). The general consensus is that the recent Future Requirements Committee projection to 1990' (extended to the year 2000 by the most recent U.S. Bureau of Mines (USBM) projection9) represents the minimum gas requirements (Table 11). They add up to a total of 1030 trillion cu ft for the period 1968-2000. Even this minimum anticipated gas demand exceeds the total remaining supply estimate by the Potential Gas Committee and would nearly exhaust the proved reserves plus new discoveries projected by IGT. The supply situation would appear much tighter if the demand projections of the Texas Eastern Transmission Gorp.10 and the American Gas Assn.(A.GA.)'' were used (Table I). Yet, these higher forecasts probably do not include the effects of such new markets as gas fuel cells, use of liquefied natural gas as a transport fuel, etc. They also may not fully reflect the impact of air quality control on the fuel market. Obviously, the probable discrepancy between projected supply and demand can only be accommodated in four ways. 1) Rapid increase in exploration and drilling activity to provide new supplies in the amount projected by the optimistic U.S. Dept. of the Interior forecast, coupled with an increase in net pipeline imports from Canada and Mexico from the present 0.5 trillion cu ft per year

Jan 1, 1970