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By David J. Hatem, K. Bhattarai

The increasing popularity of alternative methods in delivery of underground infrastructure projects has given rise to innovative and collaborative contracting strategies to allocate and manage the unique risks associated with the work. This paper presents approaches and recent examples of how risk has been dealt with using various alternative delivery methods, including Progressive Design Build (PDB) and Construction Manager/General Contractor (CM/GC). Based on the experience gained from these examples, recommendations for an innovative and collaborative risk baselining approach using contingency sharing are presented that should advance the overall goals of equitable risk sharing and compensation.

Jun 13, 2023

By Ricky Chipka, Roshan Thapa, Richard Yovichin, Greg Rogoff, Patrick Niemuth

A 4.5-mile-long, 96-inch-diameter outfall pipeline was constructed between North Texas Municipal Water District’s proposed Sister Grove Regional Water Resource Recovery Facility and the Stiff Creek Discharge Structure. Two TBM-mined tunnel segments were excavated for the outfall pipeline through rock and mixed-face conditions within the Austin Chalk Formation. The TBM mining performance was tracked in detail and evaluated during mining. This paper discusses the TBM configuration, TBM utilization, advance rates, and challenges of both tunnel segments.

Jun 13, 2023

By Frederick McNeill, Mahmood Khwaja, Benjamin Lundsted, David Polcari, Michael S. Schultz, Timothy Clougherty

The City of Manchester, New Hampshire, is embarking on one of its largest public works projects in history to construct a 12,000 foot long, large-diameter, conveyance tunnel through downtown Manchester. This area has challenging geology with undulating bedrock (granite, schist, and gneiss) profile overlain by fluvial deposits. Understanding the subsurface conditions is key to mitigating project risks, establishing plan and profile for the tunnel, and selecting the most cost-sensitive and technically appropriate tunneling method. This paper presents the project team’s approach for conducting the ground investigation, developing preliminary subsurface profile, and the considerations for selecting the tunneling method.

Jun 13, 2023

By Fabrizio Fara

The Ship Canal Water Quality Project (SCWQP) includes a 2.7-mile long, 18'-10" internal diameter tunnel which is located inWest Seattle. Tunneling in urban areas and soft ground conditions (Till and Till-like soils in Seattle) is associated with the risk of settlements, especially in presence of groundwater above the alignment. The Designer foresaw the use of soil improvement (jet grouting) outside of the launch shaft to mitigate the risk of flowing ground and to provide a redundant sealing. The Contractor proposed and ultimately successfully executed a different approach by using a “Steel Bell System” or Pressurized Can as described in this paper.

Jun 13, 2023

By Jeremy Cawley, Jeff Murphy, Horry Parker, Brock Gaspar, Jake Keegan

The Lower Olentangy Tunnel project includes 47,000 cubic yards of planned ground improvement for earth pressure balance machine (EPBM) tunneling (5.2 km) and microtunneling (335 m) in glacial soils. Jet grouting started in late 2021 and will continue through 2023 to complete operations at 5 shafts, 14 safe havens, 5 watermain ground improvement zones, and a river crossing. Typical jet grout columns are installed at depths between 15–24 meters. Discrete soil-cement blocks range from 267–8,900 cubic yards in volume. This paper discusses the methodology, testing, and technical considerations associated with jet grouting operations in glacial overburden across an urban environment.

Jun 13, 2023

By S. Pollak, J. Rickard

The Long Baseline Neutrino Facility Far Site in Lead, South Dakota is currently under construction and involves drill and blast excavation of the largest and deepest caverns in North America. This paper will review how the geotechnical risks are being managed through careful consideration of excavation sequence, completion of exploratory pilot tunnels, implementation of a robust instrumentation and monitoring program, and validation against the design. Aside from having a cross section of 5,900 square feet and being situated at a depth of one mile, the caverns also employ a unique permanent rock bolt solution which underwent a significant pre-production pull testing program involving varying installation methods and being subject to blast vibrations. The behavior of the schistose rock mass and performance of the ground support are being continually monitored throughout the construction phase.

Jun 13, 2023

By Nik Sokol, Mike Jaeger, Leo C. Weiman-Benitez

Silicon Valley Clean Water signed a progressive-design-build (PDB) contract with Barnard Bessac Joint Venture (BBJV) to design and construct the Gravity Pipeline tunnel in Redwood City, CA. Owner and Design-Builder teamed with designer Arup to provide a final product: 3.3 miles of 182 in. O.D. precast concrete segmentally lined tunnel with 10 ft. and 11 ft. I.D. Fiberglass Reinforced Polymer Mortar (FRPM) carrier pipe, complete with two FRPM Drop Structures. BBJV and Arup collaborated with SVCW to evaluate alternative design concepts, negotiate an agreeable price and reduce contingencies through a transparent estimating process, and deliver the project ahead of schedule.

Jun 13, 2023

By Shawn McWilliams, Aini Sun, Mike Lichte, Greg Colzani

The Allegheny County Sanitary Authority (ALCOSAN) adopted its Clean Water Plan (CWP) in May 2020, as part of a federal consent decree to comply with the USEPA’s Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) Control Policy. Planned improvements include constructing a new regional storage/conveyance tunnel system, promoting green infrastructure/ source control, and expanding the treatment plant. Preliminary planning for the tunnel system was completed in October 2020. The Ohio River Tunnel (ORT) project is the first of three tunnel projects that make up the regional tunnel system. The ORT project began final design in 2021. This paper discusses the advancements made to the ORT preliminary planning concepts considering property availability, alignment optimization, tunnel boring machine evaluation, contract packaging and delivery schedules.

Jun 13, 2023

By B. Genc, C. Gous

Spontaneous combustion during coal mining operations is a major problem that affects the health and safety of workers and causes environmental problems. The phenomenon is associated with the presence of coal, coal shale, and pyrite. In 2020, a premature detonation incident occurred at an iron ore mine where the waste material contains black carbonaceous shale units known to be associated with pyrite. The spontaneous combustion propensity and properties of samples of the black carbonaceous shales from the mine were examined and compared with samples from the Witbank Coalfield. The spontaneous combustion liability indexes of these samples were correlated with X-ray fluorescence (XRF) and proximate and ultimate analyses using linear regression. The Wits-Ehac Index classification results show that the samples were between medium and high risk. The linear regression analysis showed very poor correlations between the Wits-Ehac Index results and the XRF and proximate and ultimate results. The most valuable relationship found is between the presence of relatively high sulphur (greater than 3%) and ground reactivity with nitrate-bearing explosive emulsion.

Jun 5, 2023

By M. Z. Emad, N. Abbas, Y. Majeed

Room-and-pillar mining is commonly employed for the extraction of rock salt in undergroundmines. Pillar stress is a major concern in these mines as it is directly related to stability and mineralrecovery. In this study a flat jack method was used to measure pillar stresses in three undergroundrock salt mines in Pakistan. The field work included determination of in-situ stress, in-situ elastic modulus, recording of field variables (pillar length and width, height and width of opening, opening width to height ratio, extraction ratio, and overburden height) and collection of salt block samples. The geomechanical properties of rock salt (uniaxial compressive strength, Young’s modulus, Brazilian tensile strength, and density) were also determined to estimate overburden stress, pillar strength, and factor of safety (both estimated and actual). It was found that the measured pillar stresses are proportional to the overburden stress values, with their magnitude ranging from 6.05 MPa to 11.97 Mpa, and the pillars were found to be stable. Regression analysis was performed to develop statistical models for in-situ stress and in-situ elastic modulus. Finally a quick guideline chart was developed to determine the suitable length of pillar for a given span and required level of safety.

Jun 5, 2023

By A A. Latscha, D O’Connor

Increasing orebody complexity, restrictions in ground access, and longer lead times for disturbance approvals, have generated the need for the Resource Development Team within Rio Tinto Iron Ore (RTIO), to explore optimised drill design techniques that deliver resource conversion value while maximising program outcomes. In response to this challenge, the Team initiated a case study to produce an AI assisted/designed drill program using a non-machine learning AI. The case study involved the assessment and implementation of an AI generated drill program at one of RTIO’s Pilbara iron ore deposits, located in the Hamersley Province of Western Australia. The Mineral Resource is currently classified as 100 per cent Inferred. Access constraints inherent to topography, and the presence of exclusions zones have prevented adequate drilling coverage, resulting in lower resource confidence and a poor definition of the orebody extents and geometry. The drill campaign, planned in Q1 2023, needs to consider access constraints, complex topology and the limitations related to additional ground clearance, while addressing the requirement of improving orebody knowledge. The drill plan had to address two objectives. The first and main aim of drilling was to upgrade the Resource Classification to allow for possible conversion to Ore Reserve. The input for this objective was a volumetric representation of the areas currently not meeting pre-defined quantitative Resource Classification upgrade criteria. The second objective was to better define the orebody extents and geometry. For the second objective, the input to the drilling optimiser was a volumetric representation (blocks) of the areas of high uncertainty in the mineralisation/waste boundary, which were defined using an indicator conditional simulation technique. The drilling optimiser output was a range of compliant drill plans. A set of KPIs based on economic and orebody knowledge criteria were used to assess the plans and to select the most optimal drill design to be drilled in 2023. The geology and management teams were able to make better informed, objective decisions using the trade-off between cost and orebody knowledge gained. As part of the assessment, the AI generated plans were compared to our current planning practises. The AI assisted plans, when gauged against the project KPIs, showed clear and measurable improvements in both meeting project objectives and in managing operational risk.

May 24, 2023

By M Bond, R R. Hargreaves, G W. Booth

There are numerous causes of speculative mineral resource and reserve inflation. Traditionally, these are linked to issues of data accuracy or misinterpretation, the use of overly optimistic estimation parameters or assumptions, an absence of independent expert verification, or the simple pressure to increase company value, covert or otherwise. Owing to its subjective nature, classification of resources and reserves remains an opaque process. Of necessity, Competent Persons rely on personal heuristic interpretations, ideally underpinned by appropriate estimation and classification experience across commodity and deposit types. Whereas independent verification of individual resource and reserve statements remains impractical, publicly available data can be interrogated for potential category inflation, particularly when viewed with exploration expenditure statistics included in annual company reports. Abrupt changes in category tonnages and market capitalisation without concomitant expenditure can aid in outlier detection. Consequently, a comparison of common exploration and resource reporting parameters offers a basis for risk assessing classification robustness, over time. In this introductory study, an analysis of globally listed companies was undertaken over a multi-year period, examining base and precious metal projects in both preproduction and operational asset classes. From these, a series of exploratory decision tree trigger points were generated against which target companies were anonymously identified and risk-ranked.

May 24, 2023

By D Corley, J Moore, M Grant, A, W R

Resource estimates are the corner stone of technical and investment decision-making. Prior to mining, resource estimation uncertainty has the greatest potential to lead to poor investment decisions, despite a significant component of resource estimation uncertainty being unknowable at this critical stage in the mining cycle. This presents a conundrum to the resource geologist in terms of risk evaluation and resource classification. Ahead of mining, there is normally considerable focus on drill hole spacing analysis to determine the ‘optimal’ drill hole spacing, taking grade and geological continuity into account; cost-benefit analyses balance improved resource definition against cost; the law of diminishing returns and the exponential cost increases acting together as spacing is reduced. Typically, a lower limit to the drill hole spacing is identified. After completing the resource drilling to an agreed spacing, resource estimation is then undertaken. At this point it is common to attempt to bracket the resource estimation uncertainty. In many cases conditional simulation is used, based on a modelled, but largely assumed, variogram model. It is also assumed that the histogram of the available drill hole sample data is representative of the in-ground mineralisation. The purpose of this paper is not to diminish the importance of drill hole spacing and simulation studies, but rather to illuminate an important aspect of estimation uncertainty that, although previously recognised, is typically overlooked – the question of how representative the available data set is in characterising the true (but unknown) distribution of mineralisation. To do this, we lift the lid on one of OceanaGold’s former operations, the mined-out Globe Progress Mine, by resurrecting a high quality, close-spaced, reverse circulation (RC) grade control data set. The Globe Progress Mine is within the West Coast Region of New Zealand, it was closed and transitioned to rehabilitation in 2016 and is now known as the Reefton Restoration Project. The exhaustive Globe Progress grade control data was used to repeatedly ‘redrill’ the deposit by extracting 35 m × 35 m spaced subsets from the original 5 m × 5 m spaced grade control data. Utilising closely spaced grade control data removed the need for assumptions regarding short range continuity, which are necessary with forward-looking analyses that are based upon broader spaced resource drilling. The extraction process used a nearest neighbourhood algorithm, repeatedly moving the origin in 5 mE, or 5 mN increments. Individual resource estimates were then completed for each of the extracted drill hole data sets (49 in total) as well as a grade control estimate based upon the exhaustive data set. Whilst the data unpinning each of the 49 estimates changed, the geological assumptions, variography, and modelling parameters remained constant. This approach was taken to isolate the impact of changing the input data. The 49 estimates were then compared against each other and the grade control estimate. The mean of all 49 sensitivity estimates was close to that of the grade control estimate in terms of contained gold, tonnes and grade. Whilst it is acknowledged that the grade control estimate itself is subject to some degree of estimation uncertainty, the close match between the average of the 49 estimates and the grade control estimate suggests that the resource estimation methodology is reasonable and appropriate. Whilst this comparison is important, the focus of this study is on the component of estimation uncertainty related to the underlying data, and this is reflected in the spread across the estimates. The spread across the 49 global estimates (highest to lowest) for this particular Mineral Resource Estimation Conference 2023 | Perth, Australia | 24–25 May 2023 142 case study was found to be significant (approximately 20 per cent in grade and metal) and that is attributable solely to the underlying data. This exercise quantifies a component of the estimation uncertainty that is inherent to all drill hole data and is distinct from the uncertainties associated with modelling methodology choices, sample and subsample quality and drill hole spacing-related interpolation uncertainty. Importantly, this uncertainty is unknowable prior to mining; we can only directly compare the resource drill hole data against grade control data after mining has taken place. For the case study, approximately 65 per cent of the estimates fell within 5 per cent of the grade control estimate for contained-gold, suggesting that for many projects the histogram of drill hole data is unlikely to differ noticeably from that of the in-ground resource. However, about 15 per cent of the estimates in this study differed by more than 7.5 per cent, suggesting that a not-insignificant proportion of estimates will be materially compromised. Whether or not the available drill hole data is representative comes down to the ‘luck of the draw’ and cannot be known at the time of resource estimation. Given the challenge of attempting to evaluate forward-looking estimation uncertainty, a component of which that can only be quantified retrospectively, what should we do as resource geologists? What are the implications for risk evaluation, resource classification and reconciliation? Furthermore, without rigorous post-mining data checks, resource geologists may conflate suboptimal modelling with the shortcomings of the underlying data. An example of this problem is discussed in the following section.

May 24, 2023

By J Levett, O Rondon, I Glacken

Reporting Codes are not prescriptive on methodologies to report or classify Mineral Resource Estimation results, but the assessment of risk and uncertainty is required, and is likely to be increasingly important in future Code updates. The 2012 JORC Code indicates that relative confidence in tonnage-grade estimations should be considered for classification, and that there should be a discussion of relative accuracy and confidence levels in the Mineral Resource Estimate. These considerations are also relevant to the drill hole spacing required for various classification categories, along with other geological and data quality criteria. This paper summarises the theory, principles and current practice of various drill hole spacing analysis techniques for both achieving a desired level of resource categorisation and for optimising grade control or resource drill-out costs. The authors provide practitioners with a guide in their use to assess uncertainty and relative accuracy, as illustrated by a number of case studies. While all drill hole spacing studies rely on the assumption of consistency of the continuity model from current to future drilling, the range of methods available provide much more objective outcomes than previously adopted ‘rules-of-thumb’.

May 24, 2023

By D Hope, D K. Mukhopadhyay, J D. Harvey

South32 (S32), a globally diversified mining and metals company, is listed on securities exchanges around the world (ASX, JSE, LSE), with its primary listing being on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). Chapter 5 of the ASX Listing Rules (Australian Securities Exchange (ASX), 2019b) requires a mining entity to provide a summary of governance arrangements and internal controls with respect to its estimation processes, estimates and reporting of Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves annually. As a global company, it is also important to design and implement all governance processes and internal controls which can be used consistently across the organisation. The three lines model (previously known as the ‘three lines of defense’ model) is employed across South32 to manage risk where the first line (Practitioners) designs, implements and executes processes and controls to manage risk; the second line (Stewardship) identifies material gaps and improvement opportunities in the first line by monitoring conformance with the group requirements, legislative and regulatory obligations. Second line also assists with the development and improvement of core fundamentals based on industry good practise. The third line (Group Assurance) provides independent and objective assurance over the Group’s system of risk management and control. The estimation of resources and reserves for most of the operations within South32 is managed by the Planning function. The estimation process is part of the annual Life of Operation Plan (LoOP). The LoOP identifies and assesses the strategic alternatives for the development of an operation and recommends the preferred pathway based on value and risk. The LoOP starts with opportunity framing and the updated resources as an input and ends with the short-term plan and annual budget (the outputs). Ore Reserves estimates are one of the outputs from the LoOP. All the inputs and outputs follow internal standards and procedures which includes peer review and performance reconciliation. Stewardship (Second line) which is a centralised function has standards in place to ensure compliance to internal controls and external regulatory requirements. This includes assessment of the competence of Competent Persons, technical reviews, independent audits and training in the relevant chapters of the ASX Listing Rules, Guidance Notes and Appendices. Group Assurance (Third line) which reports to the Risk and Audit Committee of the Board of Directors ensures the design and operating effectiveness of the processes, standards and procedures associated with the estimation and reporting of resources and reserves. While the level of scrutiny has a different intent for each line in the three lines model, the overall purpose is to achieve a consistent outcome across the organisation

May 24, 2023

By G Zhang, I Glacken

Multiple indicator kriging (MIK) has been used in the minerals industry for some decades. As one of the non-linear estimation methodologies, MIK has advantages related to resolving multiple or mixed populations, high variability data and strongly skewed distributions. Applying the MIK methodology requires a lot more effort when compared to other non-linear methodologies, for example localised uniform conditioning. This is due not only to the variogram modelling for multiple indicators, but the validation is also very important because the panel model is fundamental for follow-up work, including the generation of recoverable resources at the local or SMU scale. Apart from this, only a few reported case studies of MIK have documented post-processing of the estimated modelled distribution, representing the probability distribution at point scale at un-sampled locations. The MIK post processing should include the change of support from the point scale to the panel scale, and then the extraction of quantile values from the panel conditional cumulative distribution function (CCDF) for localisation of grades into the SMUs within each panel, based on a ranking estimate marking the SMUs from high to low. In this paper, we present a case study on a gold deposit with the MIK method with full-post processing implemented for recoverable resources. The MIK point estimate was carried out with an indirect lognormal change of support from point to panel scale, and localisation was done with a custom script. The localised uniform conditioning (LUC) method was also applied for comparison purposes. The comparison shows that MIK has advantages compared to LUC when comes to capturing the high-grades, especially when mixed or varying anisotropy is present within the mineralisation.

May 24, 2023

By D A. Sims

This paper outlines the contributing factors to a series of erroneous Mineral Resource estimates which led to considerable loss, including significant reduction of mine life and consequently a large write-down of asset value. The error prompted divestment of the mineral asset in the short-term by the owners, a major mining company. There were multiple and complex contributions to the result: • The mine was undergoing a transition in the deposit geology with increasing depth that was not accommodated in the models. Early indications of the geological transition in initial drilling were generally unrecognised in resource modelling. The shortcomings of the models became apparent with increasing infill drilling and subsequent production reconciliation. • There was a lack of recognition of, and confidence in, site-based input and skills by corporate technical management. The site had a reputation internally for over-delivery to plan early in its life and that supported the anticipation of ongoing metal delivery into the mine plan by management. • A corporate lack of confidence in site being able to adequately domain the mineralisation led to the use of a CIK domaining process, rather than one which was geologically based. This domaining process led to gross over-statement of mineralisation trends reflected in the subsequent OK estimate. • Timelines on the outsourced estimation process were so short that validation was not possible. Obvious errors in the estimate versus data were not able to be used to correct the issues and the site’s Competent Person sign-off occurred without adequate checks. This case study is presented to reinforce the concept that Mineral Resource estimates are not solely based on the ability of the Competent Person to satisfactorily guide the process. There are usually multiple complex issues in the estimation process which need to be recognised and considered in judging reconciliations of model to actual.

May 24, 2023

By Natalie Caciagli

Catchment basin sampling allows for rapid assessment of large areas. Stream sediment surveys are a common tool used in regional exploration. The difficulty in detecting geochemical anomalies in stream sediment data from large regional datasets lies in finding the background values of pathfinder elements due to variable lithologies that could be sampled within a single basin. An alternative data driven method to discover anomalies in complex environments, without a priori knowledge of background concentrations, is presented here

May 10, 2023

By Zaraí Toledo, Freddy Cáceres, John Hayes, Katherine McKiernan

Facing the rapid proliferation of informal artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) in the 2000s, states with commodity-dependent economies pursued different strategies to enforce regulations to the activity. This article assesses the effectiveness of these strategies in increasing compliance. We leverage a view of policy effectiveness that considers the type of state-society relations a policy foster. We look at how different state-society relations impact the relevance a policy has to the subject it attempts to regulate. We argue that cooperation helps the state overcome its limitations on the knowledge of ASM and its limited institutional powers to enforce regulations alone. By learning about the activity in question and developing ties with the informal miners, the state can produce feasible regulation that is more likely to be followed.

May 10, 2023

By D. F. Malan, J. A. L. Napier

A number of shallow coal or hard rock mines employ pillar mining systems as a strategy for roof failure control. In certain platinum mine layouts, pillars are designed to ‘crush’ in a stable manner as they become loaded in the panel back area. The correct sizing of pillars demands some knowledge of the pillar strength and the overall layout stress distribution. It is particularly important to understand the impact of the layout geometry on the effective regional ‘stiffness’ of the rock mass around each pillar. An important design strategy is to model relatively detailed layout configurations which include a precise representation of the local pillar layout geometry and to analyse multiple mining scenarios and extraction sequences to select optimal pillar sizes and barrier pillar spacing. Although computational solution techniques are now impressive in terms of run time efficiency, a major difficulty is often encountered in assigning suitable material properties to the pillars and in devising an effective material description of the layered rock strata overlying the mine excavations. This paper outlines an efficient numerical strategy that can be used to assess large-scale pillar layout performance while retaining the ability to modify individual pillar constitutive behaviour. The proposed method is applied to selected layouts to compare estimated average pillar stress values against values determined by detailed modelling and against observed behaviour.

May 3, 2023