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By Denis Yaychuk, Gary Billingsley

The economic eva luation of a mineral property or mining venture should include the quantification of ri k as part of the analy is. The re ults of such an analysis provide the decision-makers not only with the most likely financial outcome and the probability of achieving that or any other outcome. but al o with a ranki ng of the relative impact of all the ri sk factors. These type of resu lts offer more complete information for investment and technical deci ions than the traditional cash flow/ ensitivity analysis. In addi tion. by attempting to quantify ri sk. the personnel providing the va ri able input are forced to take a much clo e r look at the data involved, and are fo rced to work together. the reby increa ing substantially the awa reness of the impact their work and others· work has on th e outcome of the analysis.

Jan 1, 1986

By William Pitman

Ground instability and subsequent rock falls are a major concern in underground mines. As a result, several mining companies are conducting risk assessments of the ground support installed in their mines. Risk assessment is now commonly used to provide mine operators with a systematic process to assess the strategic risks that could lead to injury to personnel or loss of production, and evaluate possible risk control measures. Risk assessments can be carried out to identify major hazards, assess the likelihood of occurrence and consequences of each hazard and estimate the level of risk. This process allows assessment of possible remediation actions to minimize the risk and likelihood of occurrence or mitigation of the consequences to a level that is reasonable and practical. This paper presents two practical mine applications of qualitative risk assessment of ground support to highlight the benefits of this process. Yearly or bi-yearly risk assessment of mine excavations can assist mine operators in prioritizing resources and areas that require support remediation. In addition, it provides a mechanism for proactive response to reduce potential risks associated with personnel safety, equipment safety and environmental impact. It also provides a baseline against which changes in ground condition can be compared and quantified.

May 1, 2004

By L. Mohammadi

Outline ?Background on the accident at the Sullivan Mine No.1 Waste Dump ?Holistic approach to understand the reason for accidents (Atmospheric) ?Specific hazards at reclamation sites ?Regular atmospheric risk assessment at reclamation sites ?Fuzzy risk assessment ?Managing risk at legacy sites

May 1, 2010

By Juan Pablo Vielma

In this work we study how to incorporate risk control to the generation of ultimate pits when orebodies are modeled through a finite number of conditional simulations. To control risk we consider a chance constraint on the value of the ultimate pit. We incorporate this measure into the generation of ultimate pits by solving a stochastic programming version of the ultimate pit problem. We compare this stochastic programming problem to previous approaches such as generating the ultimate pit for each simulation and the hybrid pit approach introduced by Whittle and Bozorgebrahimi. We also study the effect of using different number of simulations in the generation and evaluation of ultimate pits.

Oct 1, 2009

By Michael Samis

The real option valuation method is often presented as an alternative to the conventional discounted cash flow (DCF) approach because it is able to recognize additional project value due to the presence of management flexibility. However, these two valuation methods can be separated on a more fundamental level by their differences in risk discounting. Real option valuation applies the risk-adjustment to the source of uncertainty in the cash flow while the DCF method adjusts for risk at the aggregate level of net cash flow. This seemingly small difference is the reason why the real option method is able to differentiate between projects according to each project?s unique risk characteristics while the conventional DCF approach cannot. This paper provides an overview of the real options and DCF valuation frameworks and discusses the differences in risk discounting that exist between the two methods. Using grade-school mathematics, this paper clearly demonstrates how, with real options, a unique project risk discount can be calculated which is directly linked to the project?s unique risk profile. It also highlights why the DCF method fails in this regard and shows why a call to ?increase the Risk-Adjusted Discount Rate? is an incomplete solution at best. Finally, a heap-leach project and satellite reserve development project are valued with both techniques and the difference in investment conclusions is explained in terms of the risk-discounting concepts discussed here.

May 1, 2003

By Limao Zhang

This paper presents a BIM-based Risk Identification Expert System (B-RIES) for metro construction, composed of three main built-in subsystems: BIM extraction, knowledge base management, and risk identification subsystems. The engineering parameter information related to risk factors is extracted from the BIM of a specific project where the IFC standard plays a bridge role between the BIM data and metro construction safety risks. An integrated knowledge base, consisting of fact base, rule base and case base, is established to systematize the fragmented explicit and tacit knowledge. A hybrid inference approach, with case-based reasoning and rule-based reasoning included, is developed to improve the flexibility and comprehensiveness of the system reasoning capacity. During the safety risk identification process, B-RIES is able to improve the inefficiencies in engineering information extraction, reduce the dependence on domain experts, and facilitate knowledge sharing and communication among dispersed clients and domain experts. A typical safety hazard identification in the Mingdu station, located in the Wuhan Metro Line Two, is presented in a case study. The results demonstrate the feasibility of B-RIES, and its application potential. B-RIES can be used as a decision support tool to provide guidelines for safety management in metro construction, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project in a complex environment.

Aug 1, 2013

By Tsuyoshi Adachi

Photovoltaic (PV) system is especially taken notice as one of important renewable energy resources, because PV has potential to provide a certain amount of energy supply as well as without greenhouse gases emission. Considering recent rapid increasing demand for PV system, more expansion of PV system is expected in the future. However, some precious metals and minor metals such as silver, indium and others are used as component materials of solar cell in PV system. Even if energy supply would become renewable, strict limitation of these metals still remain because amount of natural resources and recycling of metals has restrictions intrinsically. The aim of this study is to reveal the possibility of materials supply restrictions for Photovoltaic system quantitatively and to propose several measurements to assess supply risks for materials. Especially, silver supply potential which is used as wire line in PV system as well as PV demand forecast to estimate material use in the future are focused on. We divide underlying supply risk into 5 measurements and analyze them by time series, i.e. price volatility, resource potential, recycling ratio, production type and supply concentration are investigated. Comparing these factors of silver with other metals, the potential of silver supply for PV is presented. In addition to it, we propose another method to quantify country risk applied an insurance pricing model in finance pricing theory and combine it with the supply concentration measurement. As a result, supply risk of silver will increase gradually in the near future because of its resource constraints and supply-demand balances although silver market is sufficiency competitive one. From the country risk analysis, Peru is not only a significant supply country but also has the highest country risk. Some higher risk countries will increase the level of supply risk even if the concentration ratio of supply indicates moderate level.

Aug 1, 2013

What Discounted Cash Flow Analysis can do for you: ?Provide an accurate financial analysis of a project for the first 25 to 30 years of operations ?Identify cash flow requirements ?Identify relative sensitivity of the project to the various input parameters ?Place a value on the resource in place after 30 years of operations ?Correct for errors in input parameters

May 1, 2010

By F. Musuka, D. Jenkins, A. Keyes

BHP Olympic Dam operates a Direct-to-Blister copper flash smelting Furnace (DBF) and an Electric Slag Cleaning Furnace (ESCF). Tapping blister copper from these furnaces via tapholes is a routine task carried out by trained personnel. Blister tapping is a high-risk activity with personnel operating in close proximity to molten metal. BHP’s risk management framework has identified taphole integrity as key to managing the potential for loss of molten metal containment and molten metal – water steam explosion, both of which have the potential to cause multiple fatalities. As part of the focus on managing this risk, since 2017, a dedicated Taphole Development Team has been embedded in the operation to run an accelerated improvement program focused on safely and sustainably embedding an improved taphole design with greater integrity. The program of works includes selecting and testing of new materials as well as improving operating discipline by collaborating with tapping personnel to convert their knowledge into codified condition monitoring and operating strategies. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is being used to derive critical risk controls, and to develop live-alerts to infer excessive refractory insert wear. To date, improving DBF blister taphole mudgun clay has led to more consistent drilling depths and subsequently reduced oxygen lancing requirements, resulting in improvements in taphole insert service life. On the ESCF, insert performance testing and development of a new taphole condition monitoring strategy, is being used to increase taphole insert tonnages to more sustainable levels. Operations personnel have been closely involved in different phases of the change management, this has led to standardization of tapping practices for both furnaces, and improved ownership of the proposed changes. The paper discusses the maturity in taphole integrity risk management as a result of recent and ongoing developments. It then provides an overview of future taphole developments proposed at Olympic Dam. INTRODUCTION Tapping operations at Olympic Dam and learning from significant events The Direct-to-Blister furnace (DBF) at Olympic Dam was built with a conventional design blister taphole, which was designed for manual oxygen lancing and clay stopper bar plugging tapping operations (Campbell, 2005). Manual tapping is a high-risk activity, where personnel work in close proximity to molten metal, and molten metal personal protective clothing and equipment must be used. Opening tapholes by oxygen lancing is a skilled activity and unintentional damage to the taphole inserts can occur. Since 2008, a Mudgun and Drill unit has been developed and trialled and is now in use on the DBF blister tapholes, to remove personnel from the line of fire when opening and closing tapholes. This has the additional benefit of reducing lancing damage to taphole inserts. A new taphole design labelled the Modular Blister Taphole (MBTH) was developed at Olympic Dam for the Mudgun and Drill operation. The intent of the design was for mudgun clay to fill the entire tapping channel when plugging after a tap. The drill would then drill through this clay plug to open the taphole.

Jan 1, 2019

By Iain G. Bruce

The need to improve supply reliability while improving our environmental record during the past half decade of low metal prices has required the mining industry to prioritise expenditures. Quantitative Risk Assessments using third party reviewers and specialist risk management teams have assisted in identifying hazards that can both disrupt supply and impact the receiving environment. Graphical displays using risk ellipses can simplify the presentation of the results in a Probability-Consequence (PC) graph. Development of risk acceptability envelopes using readily available financial data superimposed onto the same PC space assists management to prioritise their risks and focus on risk reduction measures. Development of this system and examples of the successful implementation of the system from several recent projects are described.

May 1, 2003

Risk management has taken on renewed vigor since the economic crisis of the late 2000s. The resources of governments, individuals, and corporations are being stretched to a point where only the most promising projects move forward. Risk management is a crucial part of the decision making process, yet it remains a broad term that includes disciplines from engineering to finance. A collaborative effort will be necessary to ensure that the most auspicious and appropriate projects are the ones moving forward. Risk management can be quantified to an extent by comparing the likelihood of an instance with the result of consequence of the instance occurring. In this manner it is possible to assign risk factors to instances and ultimately, begin to associate monetary value to the instance. Carbon sequestration is an emerging field that has a number of unique challenges. Risk management and mitigation must be an integral part of the overall picture. This begins with the planning and design phase, continues through implementation and production, site closure, and does not cease until termination of liability. The ability of carbon sequestration projects to successfully assess, mitigate, and recover from leaks will be a decisive characteristic of overall success. The costs of mitigation and failure will need to be analyzed on a test level, but will still need to be reliable enough to extrapolate to a commercial level operation. This paper will build a risk management profile based on case studies and field tests in Tennessee and Virginia. These tests are scheduled to commence in late 2013 and consist of small-scale injection tests in unconventional storage reservoirs with an emphasis on enhanced coalbed methane (ECBM) recovery and enhanced gas recovery. The ultimate goal will be to provide a clear and concise direction to move carbon sequestration from the test phase to commercial scale. While it is necessary from a risk management perspective to analyze all risk points, the scope of this paper will focus on pre-injection risk assessment for carbon dioxide (CO2) leakage potential. Despite the differences between the two tests, CBM compared to shale among other differences, a framework for analysis and mitigation can be developed pertaining to leakage risk. The probability of each type of failure will be assessed and analyzed, and plans to mitigate or reduce these risks will be reviewed.

Aug 1, 2013

By Jaime V. Ongpin

"The author will give a capsule history of Benguet Corporation and attempt to identify its operating environment and underlying ""strategy"" until 1974, when the company's management assumed office. The company's operating environment and ""interim strategy"" from 1975 to 1980 will be described. The discussion will cover an environmental forecast and define the company's"" strategy for survival"" for the balance of this century.IntroductionIn December last year, I was asked to deliver a pa per for the management lecture series a t the Asian Institute of Management in Manila. The paper was entitled "" The 1970's: A Decade of Disaster For New Mining Projects"" . In that paper, it was my task to review the results of new mining projects in the Philippines during the previous decade. The task was not a happy one, for the results themselves were not only unhappy, but disastrous on a scale unprecedented in Philippine history. Out of a total of 17 major mining project s involving an aggregate capital investment in excess o f US $2 billion during the 1970s, only three project s have been profitable, and all the rest have either gone "" belly up"" or are teetering on the very edge of financial disaster.It is in the context of this shocking record of widespread financial dislocation in the Philippine mining industry, (which in varying degrees appears to have been paralleled in virtually every other country in the world where mining is an important sector of the economy) that I address myself tonight to the theme of this symposium. My paper is entitled ""Risk Management Strategy in Mining"" and it is sub titled ""Can Benguet Corporation Survive to Celebrate its Centennial in 2003?"". I have inserted the word ""Strategy"" and added the subtitle, because I wish to make it clear first, that my presentation to you tonight will be focused exclusively on the strategic aspect s of risk management, and second that I will limit myself to Benguet's own ""in-house"" experience and perspectives on this subject. I would caution you therefore, to consider my views within this restricted framework, and in light of the particular and sometimes peculiar circumstances within which Benguet Corporation operates."

Jan 1, 1983

By Royston Colbourne

Objectives Of Presentation - Identify specific risks - A fresh look at risk - Provide a moment reflection on risk - Open discussion on risk A route to solution and advanced thinking.

May 1, 2010

By Samuel Frimpong

Green house gases have become a major concern within the international community over the last two decades due to their potential link to global warming. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the principal greenhouse gas. In the Kyoto Agreement, Canada has committed to reduce emissions by 6 % below 1990 levels by 2012. This presents a serious economic challenge to Canada and Alberta. Over the next decade, oil sands production expansion, population and industry growth and energy demand will increase CO2 emissions. Current and future CO2 emissions and their economic implications in Alberta will be critical in formulating a comprehensive and balanced policy for dealing with concerns in this area. Disposal of carbon dioxide (CO2) in land aquifers is a potentially viable option for Alberta in dealing with long-term CO2 emissions. Studies have confirmed the existence of appropriate aquifers in the Alberta Basin for CO2 storage over a long geological period. Carbon dioxide is an ideal candidate for aquifer disposal because of its high density and solubility in water at relatively high pressures. In this study, the authors develop a computer simulation model of a scaled aquifer disposal system. The scaled model consists of an injector well, aquifer environment with dominant Ca++ and Mg++ cations. Liquefied CO2 is injected at an appropriate pressure and concentration through an injector well model. The injected CO2 migrates from the point of contact between the injector well and the aquifer domain to the main regime of the latter. The rate of migration is a function of porosity, permeability, cations, aquifer fluid flow regime and CO2 injected pressure. These models are validated using flue gas data from the 546 MW Wabamum Power Plant in Alberta. The total energy requirements for aquifer CO2 disposal system are distributed between a minimum of 105 MW and a maximum of 172 MW, with a mean of 132 MW and a coefficient of variation of 10%. The results show that there is significant variability in all the energy requirements for the CO2 disposal system. The total energy requirements for the disposal system as a fraction of the total power generated by the Wabamum plant of 546 MW could be between 0.19 and 0.32. This is a very significant energy requirement and thorough analysis must be carried out to reduce this variability and energy requirements.

May 1, 2001

By Mark Kennedy, Allan MacRae, Cameron Hams

New technology projects, particularly those involving first-of-a-kind metallurgical facilities, have a poor track record of achieving their overall financial targets, as they incorporate technological risks in addition to normal project risks. Traditional project management tools focus on risk from concept development through implementation, but typically fail to address the additional risks associated with a new technology project including slow start-up, slow ramp-up, and failure to achieve design performance (quality or throughput). These additional risks affect future cash flows produced by the project and hence its value, typically measured as net present value (NPV) or internal rate of return (IRR). Common accounting practice is to reduce the present value of future cash flows by applying a chosen discount rate, often reflecting the corporation's cost of capital. This discount rate does not contain an allowance for technological risk, which is often underestimated or misunderstood by both the financial and engineering project managers. This paper will focus on the topic of project risk and new technology, and how these play a role in the probability of achieving the predicted future cash flows. By properly addressing technological risk in the form of risk-weighted returns, marginal projects can be prevented from proceeding, while sound projects can be given the additional time and resources required to achieve the optimal level of front-end-loading (the level which returns the maximum risk-weighted net present value). A simple set of mathematical tools should enable engineers and financial professionals to establish a common level of understanding, thereby leading to a more accurate assessment whether a new technology project is ready to pass through its next level of approvals.

Jan 1, 2011

By A. Karzhau, B. Aldamzharov, Y. Tussupbekov

"This case study produced for the metal mine operating in Kazakhstan, which has ventilation controlled manually and working continuously at maximum speed to keep air flowing through each part of the mine 24 hours a day. The mine auxiliary ventilation has been designed with the maximum length of ducting systems with extra air volumes to compensate for potential leakage. The mine provided auxiliary ventilation to all production stopes even to those, which for various operating reasons become temporarily inactive. However, mine safety has to consider risks associated with the deficit of fresh air for mine gases dilution and removal. The mine needs additional investments for re-designing ventilation network and therefore needs to estimate financial risks associated with it. The aim of this study is to conduct risk analysis for ventilation network optimisation processes at the operational metal mine in Kazakhstan. Mine ventilation surveys were undertaken for validation of the computerised ventilation model. The mine ventilation network modelling has been undertaken to be compliant with Kazakhstan mining regulations. Results of the mine ventilation optimisation processes were analysed in terms of financial risks for investments into reconstruction of the ventilation shafts, extension of the ventilation network, variable speed fans and automated regulators. Savings were resulted from improving ventilation system efficiency by reduce airflow in areas without mining activity and redistributing existing ventilation capacity. Based on savings derived from the optimised ventilation network an additional NPV has been received. Stochastic modelling use Monte Carlo simulation producing representation of possible outcomes for the additional NPV considering electricity pricing as a major variability. As result probability distribution for the optimised ventilation network demonstrates the additional NPV in a range of 1.6 - 2.2 million US$ in the corresponding defined value of 90%. Moreover, there is only 5% chance that the additional NPV to be less than 1.5 million US$. Conducted risk analysis for ventilation network optimisation processes gives considerations on volume of investments into the mine ventilation system.INTRODUCTIONCosts for mine ventilation are typically increasing when mines expand to deep levels. Some underground mines in Kazakhstan still use continuously operating fans at its maximum capacity. This is not helping to save energy and costs that are in many cases very significant. This case study produced for the metal mine operating in Kazakhstan, which has ventilation controlled manually and working continuously at maximum speed to keep air flowing through each part of a mine 24 hours a day. The mine auxiliary ventilation has been designed with maximum length of ducting systems and extra air volumes to compensate for potential leakage. The mine provided auxiliary ventilation to all production stopes even to those, which for various operating reasons become temporarily inactive. However, mine safety has to consider risks associated with the deficit of fresh air for mine gases dilution and removal from the mine workings (Sabanov, 2019). The mine needs additional investments for re-designing ventilation networks and therefore need to estimate financial risks associated with it. The aim of this study is to conduct risk analysis for ventilation networks optimisation processes at the operational mine in Kazakhstan. Mine ventilation surveys for validation of the computerised ventilation model have been undertaken"

Jan 1, 2019

By P. W. A. Walker

"The Riviera tungsten occurrence in the Cape Province of South Africa was discovered in October 1979 as a result of stream-sediment panned concentrate sampling. The Cape age granite and late Precambrian Malmesbury Group carbonates and chlorite schists which it intrudes and which host the mineralization are covered by between 10 m and 30 m of Tertiary/Recent alluvium and clay. The scheelite/powellite and molybdenite mineralization occurs in a greisenized granite cupola with an overprint of porphyry-type alteration as well as in minor skarns. The ore reserve is estimated to be 46 million tonnes at an average grade of 0.216% W03 and 0.020070 Mo. The deposit is uneconomic at current tungsten prices. IntroductionDuring the 19705, Union Carbide Corporation was a major producer, processor and supplier of tungsten and derivative products to end-user manufacturing industries. The corporation owned and operated two tungsten mines in the United States, and one in Brazil, and operated a plant in the United States which produced ammonium paratungstate (APT) which is an intermediate product in the production of tungsten wire and tungsten carbide for cutting tool insets and hard facings. In 1975 the three mines were ageing with short-life reserves and high production costs. The world market for tungsten was buoyant and prices, in constant dollar terms, had risen steadily over the past 15 years (Fig. 1).It was against this background that a decision was made to explore for tungsten in North America, South Mrica, Australia and Brazil."

Jan 1, 1994

By Walker. P. W. A.

Abstract -The Riviera tungsten occurrence in the Cape Province of South Africa was discovered in October 1979 as a result of stream-sediment panned concentrate sampling. The Cape age granite and late Precambrian Malmesbury Group carbonates and chlorite schists which it intrudes and which host the mineralization are covered by between 10 m and 30 m of Tertiary/Recent alluvium and clay. The scheelite/powellite and molybdenite mineralization occurs in a greisenized granite cupola with an overprint of porphyry-type alteration as well as in minor skarns. The ore reserve is estimated to be 46 million tonnes at an average grade of 0.2160Jo W03 and 0.020% Mo. The deposit is uneconomic at current tungsten prices.

Jan 1, 1994

By Franc R. Joubin, Donald H. James

"The Property of Rix Athabasca Uranium Mines Limited is in the Beaverlodge area of northwestern Saskatchewan. The mine is 7 miles by road north from the Lake Athabasca port of Bushell which is 250 miles north by aircraft or boat from railhead at Waterways, Alberta.The Rix property is a portion of the former DD 1 concession, obtained in 1949 from the government of Saskatchewan when private prospecting for uranium became permissible. The concession was prospected in detail during the 1950 and 1951 field seasons and a great many radioactive show-ings were discovered. Development and drilling were concentrated in two and later three of these areas, and by late 1952 enough ore had been indicated in the Leonard series and ""Smitty"" zone to justify underground development by adit-drift and shaft respectively.Four hundred feet of drift development on the Leonard No. 1 vein and the sinking of a two-level vertical shaft with related lateral development on the Smitty zone were completed in 1953. In April 1954 the Smitty section was placed in production at a rate averaging 100 tons per day, thereupon becoming the first privately owned post-war uranium producer in Canada. The ore is shipped for processing 12 miles by truck to the mill of Eldorado Mining and Refining Limited.Until recently all of the Company's production was drawn from the Smitty orebody. In April, 1955, ore production commenced from the faulted west extension of the Smitty structure, known as the Rix 62 zone, and from the Leonard No. 1 vein.The Smitty orebody (see Figure 2) is an intensely brecciated lenticular zone bordering both sides of the Smitty fault. The breccia areas are irregularly mineralized with pitchblende, very sparse galena, and pyrite in a gangue of feldspar, chlorite, calcite, and silica, all thoroughly soaked with fine-grained hematite to produce the locally-called ""red alteration"".Tenor of the ore currently being mined is classified information. The average grade estimated, prior to production, was 0.20 per cent (4.0 lbs.) U308 per ton."

Jan 1, 1949

By D. R. Rice

"The Smoky Valley Common Operation is managed and 50 percent owned by Echo Bay Mine' s Round Mountain Gold Corporation. The other partners with 25 percent each are Homestake Mining Company and Case Pomeroy. The operation in central Nevada includes an open pit, 3-stage open-circuit crushing train and heap leaching on asphalt pads. Presently, about 18,000 tons per day of 0.039 troy ounce gold per ton are transferred to the leach pads, and a similar tonnage of leach residue is transferred to a waste dump. One million tons of ore are being leached at any one time.Gold and silver cyanide are adsorbed from pregnant leach solution on activated coconut shell carbon granules. Pressure stripping desorbs values from loaded carbon to electrowinning solution.Three electrowinning cells are operated in parallel. Each contains six cathodes. Each cathode includes about 40 troy ounces (2.7 pounds) of Number 2 medium coarse steel wool. The wetted area of each cathode is about 24 by 30 inches. Solution flow is 2 to 3 gallons per minute per electrowinning cell. Average current flow is 25 amperes per cathode. The voltage is controlled in the range of 3 to 4 volts to maintain desired amperage.Twice a week two cathodes are pulled from each cell and drained. Each cathode is split into four portions. These are put in a steel pan coated with WD-40 and dried overnight.Each dried cathode portion is put into a paper sack. Each group of four sacks corresponding to a cathode is weighed together. The typical weight ratio of loaded cathode wool to new cathodes is 9 or 10 to 1. To each sack is added 35 troy ounces of silica, 45 troy ounces of anhydrous borax, 35 troy ounces of nitre, and 5 troy ounces of fluorspar. The sacks are taped shut."

Jan 1, 1986