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By Jean-François Dorion

In an underground mine rock reinforcement elements and surface support units are often exposed to conditions that make them susceptible to corrosion. These unfavourable conditions include high relative humidity, the presence of dust and various other particles in the atmosphere, splashing of water and gases from blasting and diesel equipment. The corrosion of support systems is often associated with a loss in capacity that can be a major safety and economic concern in underground mines. A support system is composed of several components such as bolts, mesh, plate, retaining nut, cable ties. Every individual component can deteriorate due to atmospheric or aqueous corrosion and consequently can damage the integrity of the support system. This paper reports the results of a 5-yr study on the loss in capacity of individual support and reinforcement components at selected underground hard rock mines. As part of this investigation corrosion coupons were installed at selected locations at participating mines. A number of these coupons were recovered at regular time intervals and analysed for any signs of corrosion and subsequently tested to quantify any loss in capacity. The testing of the corrosion coupons was complemented by similar tests on recovered mesh and friction bolt specimens from the site. The collected data have provided useful insights on the factors that contribute to the corrosion of support systems. This knowledge can aid in the selection of appropriate support strategies and a reliable assessment of the predicted useful life of a support system and the need for rehabilitation.

Jun 1, 2012

By Gregory C. More O'Ferrall

Generally pillars in the Southern African hard rock tabular underground mining environment are designed using either empirical pillar design formulae or numerical modelling (analytical) methods utilizing the Hoek-Brown failure criterion. However, none of the pillar design methodologies employed takes cognizance of weak layers either within the pillar material or in the immediate foundation of the pillar. Over the past few years, the presence of a weak layer either within the pillar material or within the immediate foundation of the pillar has resulted in the closure of one platinum mine (Everest Mine), closure of one chrome mine (Wonderkop Chrome) and large-scale instability in a couple of chrome and platinum mines in South Africa and Zimbabwe. A study has been initiated to better understand the failure mode and strengths of the pillars where pillar failure associated with weak layers occurred. Owing to the infancy of the study into the failed pillar strength and failure mechanism, the purpose of this paper is to highlight the circumstances that led to the collapse of mining sections and a shaft, and the difficulty associated with designing pillars in the Southern African chrome and platinum mining operations.

Jun 1, 2012

By B Belle

"Mines around the world are inherently and operationally diverse. Current methodologies for the design of mine ventilation and cooling infrastructure involve controlling major safety and health hazards. Globally, it can be estimated that mine ventilation systems from various commoditiescirculate over 150 000 m3/s of exhaust air through shafts. Additionally, over 2 000 000 workersare transported every day through shafts in labour-intensive mining countries like China, India,Southern Africa, and the Americas. A key objective of this paper is to share experiences and provide a case for the revision of ætime-honouredÆ ventilation design parameters based on a benchmarking exercise on design exhaust shaft velocity from various global operations (gold, diamond, platinum, coal and base metals). An active fi eld observation on exhaust shaft velocity has indicated that, regardless of the commodity or continent where the mine operates, almost all life-of-mine (LOM) design parameters provided are in the same range of 20 m/s to 22 m/s, which is not convincing considering signifi cant variations exist in shaft depths, geography, commodity, operating and capital costs. From a due diligence perspective, there are no documented views that are available on the most widely used design exhaust air velocity. Based on the global exhaust shaft velocity data, it is noted that a significant portion of shaft velocities are outside the current design velocity of 20 m/s (some operating up to 30 m/s) and other signifi cant portions of the exhaust shafts operate in the critical velocity range. In the case of Australian coal mines, limited data suggests that none of the mines have ever reached the LOM design exhaust shaft velocity. It is self-evident that when the shafts are not operating at their design quantities either the mine system resistance is low or the ventilation and main fan is operating ineffi ciently. The most common reasons given for not reviewing the shaft system were, ætime-honouredÆ design parameter are being used and cannot be changed, mine fan pressure limits, possible fan blade damage, possible spontaneous combustion risks, leakage or simply did not consider such a possibility. In conclusion, the study has reiterated the historic lessons that a safe and expensive airway should not be utilised uneconomically by circulating too litt le air through it."

Jun 1, 2012

By B Maybee

In underground mine planning, many potentially value-eroding decisions are made due to a lack of time and proper evaluation practices. The information required for mine planning decisions goes beyond external sources of uncertainty that are recognised by typical evaluation techniques used in the mining industry, to include technical factors (eg mine development layout) and the ability of a mineral extraction project to achieve its anticipated production levels. Due to the individual characteristics that define underground mining projects, each will exhibit a different risk profile, and thus advanced optimisation and evaluation techniques are required to capture this information.As underground mine planning tools become more sophisticated, mine planners have the capacity to investigate numerous mine sequencing options to identify the best strategy for a given project, creating higher value for shareholders. This paper describes a risk-based evaluation methodology (RbEM) that accounts for financial and technical risk in the evaluation of underground mining projects. While the use of the RbEM has been described in previous works, no benchmarking of the benefits that can be realised from a change in those decisions that are made early in the process has been undertaken. To show the benefits that can be achieved from using the RbEM, this paper updates a case study to which the RbEM was applied, and takes a retrospective look at whether additional value would have been gained by following the strategic recommendation of the RbEM versus a typical optimisation exercise that aims to maximise the net present value.CITATION:Maybee, B, 2012. Can a risk-based evaluation provide a more valuable mine design?, in Proceedings Project Evaluation 2012 , pp 53-58 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

May 24, 2012

By P Guj, J A. Bell

The valuation of early-stage exploration projects requires a valuer to take into account a large number of uncertain value drivers, the interplay among which may be non-linear. This paper examines some of the key value drivers including geology, target metrics, project area and maturity, the market and the psychology behind the decision-making process. The commonly accepted valuation methods and their underlying logic are outlined, including a view on why they evolved, what value drivers they attempt to address and their potential shortcomings. These methods include the multiple of exploration expenditure, geoscience rating, expected values and market based methods. The potential future valuation methods of replacement values and neural networks are also introduced along with how to minimise heuristic bias and error within the market-based approach.CITATION:Bell, J A and Guj, P, 2012. Exploration value drivers and methodologies, in Proceedings Project Evaluation 2012 , pp 17-28 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

May 24, 2012

By L Lorenzen, H Muller

"Every year a large number of projects are evaluated by small listed and unlisted mining companies that are hoping to find the ideal project, which will catapult them from a mining junior status to that of a mid-tier mining company. Usually this includes finding the æidealÆ or ærightÆ orebody and then developing a process which will allow cost-effective recovery of the valuable metals and the production of a saleable product. These dreams are seldom realised and there are a number of good and obvious reasons for this. Issues that are generally high up on the agenda for the smaller companies are: cost of developing a project before the feasibility study stage finding a suitable, or optimum processing technology financing of the project dealing with risk.The most expensive part of the development process for the small miner is often the exploration side of the business and finding the æidealÆ orebody. However, finding the right orebody will not be discussed in this paper. The æidealÆ orebody does not necessarily solve the problems of the mining junior, as much of the uncertainty lies in the process required to recover and produce the final metal product. Once a mineralised deposit has been identified and the grade at least reasonably qualified, the development of a suitable process becomes the driver to convert the deposit into an orebody. This paper proposes that a small exploration company has a very limited opportunity to succeed if it does not do sufficient homework before it identifies the æidealÆ orebody. The risk profile for the small mining company, by its very nature, has to be different to that of a major company and as a result the opportunities often lie in managing different and often new process options, which may be the key to bring such projects on line successfully.CITATION:Muller, H and Lorenzen, L, 2012. Project selection and process development for mining juniors, in Proceedings Project Evaluation 2012, pp 149-158 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne)."

May 24, 2012

By B Maybee, L Fava, D Millar

In the context of a case study for an underground gold mine, the value generated by a schedule optimisation tool (SOT) is assessed. SOT is a software tool for underground mine planning that maximises the net present value (NPV) of a development and production schedule. A baseline study measures the NPV of a schedule generated by SOT from a sequence prepared by the site mine planners. Operational resource constraints and precedence constraints are adhered to by the schedule and NPV is evaluated with a financial model including revenues, costs and discount rate, as specified by the mine planner.The case study has several facets in addition to the baselining component. Scenarios were conducted that examined the degree of constraint on operational resources, the projected gold price and unit costs. Life-of-mine schedules subject to optimisation using SOT allowed for equitable comparisons.Haulage was identified as a dominant constraint for the mine. It was one of six operational resources that were used to constrain the optimisation of the mine schedule, with alternative levels for some of these constraints being identified so that their effects on the NPV could be studied. Alternative price projections for gold and different cost projections were identified and their effects on the optimised schedule examined. Price and cost scenarios that brought additional economic material into the schedule at various times in the mine life were considered in comparison to a scenario that assumed no additional economic material would become available.This case study illustrated that the use of a schedule optimisation tool to optimise mine schedules provides mine planners with an ability to perform a wide variety of analyses in a relatively short period of time. Such tools thereby support strategic decision-making that can add significant value to an orebody.The case study demonstrates that by fixing the set of development and production activities to be carried out before optimising the life-of-mine schedule, the mine planners can inadvertently set up a situation where the NPV would be progressively eroded in the last several years of the mine life. This clearly illustrates the need for schedule optimisation to be integrated with life-of-mine planning.CITATION:Fava, L, Maybee, B and Millar, D, 2012. Decision support for an underground gold mining operation - A case study using the schedule optimisation tool, in Proceedings Project Evaluation 2012 , pp 41-48 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

May 24, 2012

By P Myers, T Elkington, S Wonday

Sierra Rutile LimitedÆs (SRL) heavy mineral sand mining operation in Sierra Leone, West Africa, is embarking on a new phase of its life. After confronting many challenges during the 1990s and 2000s, SRL is embarking on a strategy of growth to recover maximum value from the mine over the rest of its life. Sophisticated linear programming techniques have been used to develop an optimum strategy for extracting SRLÆs many known deposits of economic grade, while considering options for expansion and for a variety of mining and processing methods and combinations. CITATION:Myers, P, Elkington, T and Wonday, S, 2012. Strategic optimisation at Sierra Rutile - A case study in maximising project value, in Proceedings Project Evaluation 2012 , pp 59-66 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

May 24, 2012

By S Watson, L Martinez

Mine projects are complex opportunities that demand a constant assessment of uncertainty, ie risk and upside potential. This is because the value of a mine project is typically influenced by many underlying economic and physical uncertainties, such as metal/mineral prices, metal/mineral grades, costs, schedules, quantities, and environmental issues, amongst others, which are not known with much certainty at the beginning of the project. But, is uncertainty an enemy or an ally of the mine planner/analyst? To answer this question, this paper first assesses and elaborates upon the general concept of uncertainty. It then looks at the different sources of uncertainty in a mining project, such as the orebody, costs and product price uncertainties, and their effect on the final project value. Next, a general?review?of current mine evaluation techniques highlighting their limitations when dealing with uncertainty is made. Finally, an extended evaluation and risk management framework that addresses the existing uncertainty in the (greenfield/brownfield) mine evaluation process is proposed. One important characteristic of this framework is that it uses and manages uncertainty in order to generate additional value to the project; this is done through operational and managerial flexibility, which allow mine planners to minimise/maximise project risk/upside-potential giving a more realistic estimate of the projectÆs market value - this is shown in practical and simple examples occurring at different stages of a mine project, such as exploration and operation. Final conclusions are provided at the end.CITATION:Martinez, L and Watson, S, 2012. Uncertainty - An important source of (additional) value for mine projects, in Proceedings Project Evaluation 2012 , pp 131-140 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

May 24, 2012

By W B. Edgar, S C. Dominy

High-nugget effect vein-gold systems are generally considered to be one of the most challenging of deposit types to evaluate and exploit. To potential investors and mining companies, they are viewed as high risk because of the associated uncertainties in the grade estimate and general paucity of Ore Reserves at production start-up. However, despite the well-known risks, these deposits often have a grade upside that makes them potentially attractive. The reporting of resource grade is of importance and perhaps even more so is the reporting of the associated uncertainty attached to the grade estimate. The use of the grade estimate supported by a grade range is recommended to achieve more complete and useful disclosure. The definition of the grade range can be somewhat subjective, ranging from opinion based estimates through to data-based estimates and geostatistical conditional simulation. Whichever method used, the over-riding issue must be the provision of enough data of appropriate quality and full disclosure to the public of relevant uncertainties.CITATION:Dominy, S C and Edgar, W B, 2012. Approaches to reporting grade uncertainty in high-nugget gold vein projects, in Proceedings Project Evaluation 2012 , pp 95-108 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

May 24, 2012

By A Chandra, P Guj

Only a few complex real options can be valued using closed-form equations, such as the Black and Scholes formula, because these algorithms are restrictive and prevent the construction of practical project evaluation models. Although a binomial lattice method paired with the ærisk-neutral probabilityÆ provides an easier and flexible modelling of exploration and mining projects, it has limitations when projects are complex, long-lived and influenced by the interplay of various market and private uncertainties. In order to overcome these limitations, modern decision tree software using dynamic programming capability can be used for real option valuations. This is a powerful computational tool in which the impact of various sources of uncertainties can be differentiated, so that the optimal decision path can be explicitly displayed visually. There has been significant academic controversy surrounding whether different real option (RO) valuation methods would lead to different real option values (ROV). This paper, using a realistic copper mining example, demonstrates that as long as the same degree of subjectivity and consistency are used in different real option valuation methods, they yield the same result. This conclusion is valid irrespective of whether the cash flow volatility generated by various sources of uncertainties is handled in an aggregated or in an explicit and differentiated manner. This paper compares two choices for an investor either to æbuy now and developÆ a project or to enter into a ætwo-year option to purchaseÆ after the proponents have developed it. It also shows how significantly different net after-tax operating cash flows may be generated by these different choices on the same underlying asset represented by the project. This is due to the difference in the amount and timing of the relevant capital investments affecting the depreciation and amortisation charges and as a consequence, the income tax paid. CITATION:Guj, P and Chandra, A, 2012. Real option valuation of mineral exploration/mining projects using decision trees - Differentiating market risk from private risk, in Proceedings Project Evaluation 2012 , pp 177-188 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

May 24, 2012

By G K. Robinson

Variations in many aspects of physical and chemical grade are often of concern to mining operations and mineral processing plants. In most circumstances these amounts of variation are predictable. At the time of planning new operations, we should be able to predict the amount of sampling and testing variation which our sampling devices, laboratory procedures and on-stream analysis devices will achieve. We should know how well our stockpiles, reclaimers and bins will homogenise material (or whether segregation will actually increase the amount of variation). We should be able to predict the amounts of variation that will occur on the important time or tonnage scales at the crucial p oints in our proposed operation. And once these amounts of variation are reliably known, mine planning will seem a little bit more like dealing with known knowns rather than like dealing with unknown unknowns.The first step towards quantifying amounts of variation for planned operations is to assess amounts of variation for existing operations. How many operations have estimates of amounts of variation in their databases? How often are people able to partition amounts of variation into amounts due to sampling error, amounts due to sample preparation, amounts due to assaying, and the amount of real variation in the stream of material?CITATION:Robinson, G K, 2012. Making sure that the amount of grade variation is a known known, in Proceedings Project Evaluation 2012 , pp 159-162 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

May 24, 2012

Risk management has become an essential tool for mining companies to ensure their projects are well-managed and profit expectations are achieved. Risk management has also become a mandatory corporate governance requirement in Australia for publicly listed companies and equally important to attract investors. This paper provides a brief overview of the essential tools needed to implement a practical risk management framework to comply with the internationally recognised ISO 31000:2009 risk management-principles and guidelines from the perspective of small or soon to be producing mining companies. To?successfully?deal with the unknown and to manage the opportunities and risks involved with a mining project requires a clear understanding of the basic risk management principles. These include how to develop a project risk register, how to develop a project risk treatment plan and how to manage and monitor project risks to take full advantage of the opportunities presented.The first step is to identify and fully appreciate the risks that face a mining project. There are many risk identification methods that can be used including checklists, brainstorming and hazard and operability (HAZOP) studies. These often lead to a telephone book full of risks which are near to impossible to manage. A risk library specifically designed?for mining?projects containing no more than 100 risks will cover the major showstoppers, is practical and can be readily implemented and successfully managed.A risk framework also needs to be established which is compatible with the companyÆs structure and objectives. Once each risk has been assessed in regard to consequence and likelihood and the risk control systems are in place they need to be assigned to the responsible manager. The extreme or high risks will require a risk treatment plan to be developed. Risks will change during the life cycle of a mining project. Hence, a reliable monitoring system is also required for compliance.CITATION:Jones, J A, 2012. Mine project risk management, in Proceedings Project Evaluation 2012 , pp 117-122 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

May 24, 2012

By A M. Ebbels, D Pratt

The current commodities super-cycle has seen an explosion in the number of mining projects demanding human resources throughout the world. The demand for key personnel currently far outweighs the international talent pool and will take several years to subside. A highly effective project team can be the difference between a successful project and a bad public relations exercise. Building an effective team and retaining the team members has become one of the major influencing factors for successful project development in the mining industry in the last decade.Increasingly, international teams are being established combining skill sets, subject matter experts, unique previous experiences and diverse cultures to deliver mining projects all around the world.This paper explores the characteristics of a highly effective team, the communication and geographic challenges and some potential pitfalls which influence the ability to form effective teams within the mining industry.CITATION:Ebbels, A M and Pratt, D, 2012. A great project team - Bringing together location and culture, in Proceedings Project Evaluation 2012 , pp 197-202 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

May 24, 2012

By J Gould, T Elkington

Mine operation strategies are commonly optimised with a net present value (NPV) maximisation objective. There are well known properties of a typical mining project optimised for NPV, including high production rates and declining cut-off grade schedules. In practice, however, frequently there are operations that diverge from such NPV-maximising properties. Although a range of reasons for this can be at play, one possible explanation is that operators intuitively adjust their strategies to compensate for the flaws inherent to NPV maximisation. In particular, NPV analysis does not reflect the benefits of managerial flexibility inherent in a mining plan. Real options valuation (ROV) is an alternative approach that addresses this issue. We compare the properties of NPV and ROV optimisation solutions generated for the same scenario. Our simple case study demonstrates that the presence of real operating options in the optimisation model not only entails increased project value as expected, but also tends to encourage lower processing capacity (with lower associated capital cost), higher cut-off grades and greater use of stockpiles.CITATION:Elkington, T and Gould, J, 2012. Real option value optimisation, in Proceedings Project Evaluation 2012 , pp 35-40 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

May 24, 2012

By S Shafiee, N Abbate

The evaluation of mining projects requires a methodology that will give flexibility and manage the existing uncertainty within the projects. The discount cash flow (DCF) and other traditional evaluation approaches, which are widely used in evaluating a significant number of mining projects, have simply assumed that the main variables remain constant in their evaluation; elements such as discounted rate, mine life, operating cost and production rate. The DCF ignores managementÆs flexibility to adapt and reforecast and revise decisions. Real options valuation (ROV) is one of the modern evaluation methodologies that provide a tool to adapt and revise mining projects under uncertainty and future variables movements. ROV brings more variables into the evaluation model compared to DCF and assumes them as uncertain and dependent. Finally, ROV provides a range of solutions that can assist in managing this flexibility.This paper endeavours to compare ROV and DCF for mining projects comprehensively and applies these two techniques in the model. The paper shows that ROV will be inclusive of extra value in mining projects due to variables not allowed for, or even ignored, when the DCF model alone is used. One of the significant advantages of the ROV method is being able to evaluate mining projects under different scenarios from the inception of the projects. Furthermore, ROV gives the ability to evaluate the mining project while allowing for abandonment, temporary suspension, or expanding the mining project. In other words, the ROV evaluation process creates an analytical environment, which allows for optimisation of the mining plan within the mining project, as well as the ability to change the capital structure dependant on existing circumstances over the life of the project. The ROV is a new evaluation method that can add value in mining project analysis and offers opportunities to amplify gains, or to mitigate losses. This paper also discusses some of the reluctance to use ROV instead of DCF in current project evaluation.CITATION:Shafiee, S and Abbate, N, 2012. Now, this is the time for mining companies to choose - Real option valuation or discount cash flow, in Proceedings Project Evaluation 2012 , pp 225-234 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

May 24, 2012

By P Card

Some project managers accept unsatisfactory economic evaluation modelling because they are unaware of what constitutes good practice. They tend to leave it to the evaluation specialist or others to decide. The AusIMM has published on its website a draft set of guidelines for technical economic evaluation which will allow these project managers to take control and demand worldÆs best practices.The style of the guidelines is described and the source of a worked spreadsheet example in Excel is given.Economic evaluation in project management is described. A simple test for the acceptance or rejection of evaluation work is offered. The nature of modelling and evaluation in each of the three study phases of concept, prefeasibility and final feasibility are described. Suggestions on the selection of specialists for each phase are given. The three levels of evaluation thinking are described, namely, modelling, valuation and evaluation. Finally the meaning of æfinancial analysisÆ is explained.The conclusion is that æthe role of an economic evaluation specialist is to create models and evaluations for the whole project team to readily understand and use: it is not to create models for his/her own useÆ.CITATION:Card, P, 2012. What project managers must demand from an economic evaluation!, in Proceedings Project Evaluation 2012 , pp 173-176 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

May 24, 2012

By G Lumley

PlannersÆ optimism (or maybe commercial necessity) means that most mine plans use equipment rates that are rarely achieved (Lumley and Beckman, 2009). This lack of understanding of what equipment actually moves is causing erroneous equipment forecasts, leading to incorrect mine development plans and economic evaluations. Compounding this problem is a downward trend in actual equipment performance in some areas. Consequently, the presentation of realistic mine plans that are actually achieved in practice is not a common occurrence. However, rational, fact-based mine planning is available to those who want it. Hundreds of millions of cycles of data from open cut mining equipment has been collected from mines around the world since 1992. This unique and highly valuable databank is growing at an exponential rate and is being used by a number of our big miners to support rational and fact-based decision-making. However, neither the use nor the appreciation of the value of this data is universal. There is a challenge to everyone in the mining industry - how do you access value from it? The databank was drilled into and the results analysed for, the Australasian Mining and Metallurgical Operating Practices (AMMOP) publication (Lumley, in press). For this paper the analysis has been extended to include interpretation of trends for draglines, shovels, excavators and trucks. It investigates trends between coal and non-coal mines and across geographic areas. It is known that mining equipment performance in most sections of the industry is falling. This paper attempts to quantify the fall and provide explanations. The trends are analysed to extract the reasons behind the changes and most importantly, what can be done about it.CITATION:Lumley, G, 2012. Understanding trends in performance of open cut mining equipment, in Proceedings Project Evaluation 2012 , pp 203-224 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

May 24, 2012

By G M. Jones, J Rademan

Debswana, owned by the Government of the Republic of Botswana (GRB) and De Beers in a 50:50 joint venture partnership, operates the Jwaneng diamond mine in Botswana - the most valuable diamond mine in the world. The mine provides between 60 - 70 per cent of DebswanaÆs earnings, and about 30 - 40 per cent of the GRBÆs income. In 2008, the company embarked on the Cut 8 Project - an open pit waste cut-back to expose more diamond bearing ore to sustain mine life by another six to seven years. This undertaking was much larger than previous cut-backs; it increased the waste stripping ratio threefold, increasing significantly the waste handling fleet of trucks, shovels and infrastructure, and impacted a large part of the materials handling plant which required replacement with new facilities. The project coincided with the beginning of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and a slowdown in the economy. Its $4 billion total life cost was billed as æthe largest private investment project in BotswanaÆ which produced heightened expectations amongst stakeholders that it would redress some of the issues brought about by the GFC and leave behind a legacy of jobs, increased opportunities for citizen owned business and improved social infrastructure.Most of the big project challenges were non-technical and ranged from dealing with various stakeholders?at?all levels, a 25 per cent currency depreciation of the Botswana Pula against the South African Rand, obtaining work permits for non-citizens in a job starved environment, managing construction to world class safety standards, managing the low productivity of construction workers and producing a viable legacy program that satisfied the GRB and stakeholders. Whilst most of these risks were identified in front end studies, the magnitudes were in many instances underestimated. Managing this uncertainty on Cut 8 can provide valuable lessons to other projects in a similar environment, or at least provide the information to indicate that these factors should be adequately provided for in the financial evaluation of a project in the form of budget, schedule, contingency or risk mitigation.CITATION:Jones, G M and J Rademan, 2012. Reliability of expert judgements and uncertainty assessments, in Proceedings Project Evaluation 2012 , pp 109-116 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

May 24, 2012

By T Y. Dube

In this paper current net present value (NPV) based mine valuation techniques that take into account market and private risk are discussed and analysed. Potential pitfalls that arise from the application of a portfolio, market or commodity based risk metric to a mining project are identified. An alternative non-simulative framework for quantifying and factoring market and private risk in NPV calculations is proposed and then applied to a hypothetical case study in an attempt to overcome identified pitfalls. Mathematical proof that a static discounted cash flow (DCF) calculation can underestimate or overestimate mine NPV is presented, the conditions for each are outlined and the degree of underestimation defined.CITATION:Dube, T Y, 2012. How the use of market-based risk metrics can undervalue good mining projects and overvalue poor ones, in Proceedings Project Evaluation 2012 , pp 29-34 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

May 24, 2012