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By N Morales, G Nelis

Short-term plans must meet the long-term goals while accounting for shovel selectivity, operational space, and scheduling restrictions. There are several approaches that deal with these issues to deliver a feasible short-term schedule. This paper compares two approaches based on mathematical programming to address the short-term mining cut definition and scheduling in an integrated way. They work by scheduling extraction to comply with long-term production goals, but they differ in how mining cuts are modelled. The first approach schedules Selective Mining Units (SMUs) but aggregates them around predefined locations. The second approach does not work on SMUs; it decides directly what mining cuts are to be used from a pre-defined set of shapes. It assigns a destination and schedules the extraction for the selected mining cuts. We applied both approaches in a real case study to compare their results in terms of profit, mining cut design, expertise needed, profit, and optimisation performance.

Sep 1, 2021

By S. Konetschnik, E. Dreyer, A. Filzwieser

"More intense furnace operations require effective cooling in order to achieve low refractory wear and good furnace lifetimes, making cooling technology an important aspect of furnace operations. However, the use of water - today’s standard cooling medium - has some disadvantages, as it can cause problems both during furnace start-up and operation, namely hydration problems, corrosion, and explosions. Apart from these aspects, the energy that is removed by extensive cooling cannot be recovered and is normally lost in the cooling towers.With METTOP’s new patented cooling technology it is possible to overcome the disadvantages of water by using an alternative cooling medium, namely ionic liquids (ILs). The main advantage of ILs is the fact that there is no risk of explosion should this liquid come in contact with molten metal. Furthermore, ILs can be used at higher temperatures than water - up to 200°C. This relatively high cooling medium temperature avoids hydration and corrosion problems and allows recovery of the energy by combining the ILTEC system and the organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) technology, for example.Due to the removal of the explosion risk, much higher safety standards can be achieved, particularly in critical areas such as tap-holes"

Jan 1, 2014

It is a great honour to officiate at the celebration of the centenary of the South African Institute of Mining and Metalurgy. Tonight's festivities bring back happy memories of my association with South Africa's mining industry during my tenure of office as Minister of Mineral and Energy Affairs. They also remind me of the illustrious personalities who have preceded me on this podium. The Pioneers They include Sir Percy Fitzpatrick, who spoke in 1909 on the eve of the Union, General Smuts, and, on many occasions during the 1920s and 1930, Jan H. Hofmeyr. The basic issues addressed by them continue to enjoy the Institute's attention today, namely the optimal and safe exploitation of our country's mineral resources and cost-effective extraction of minerals from their ores. Translated into the Institute's key objective it reads: To initiate and give effect to the means whereby the requirements for technology and scientific knowledge if the minerals and metals section if the South African economy is satisfied.

Jan 1, 1994

Contribution by G. Narsimhan It was with much pleasure that I went through D.F. Malan's excellent paper. The following explanatory and critical note has been the result of my deep study of the paper. Although by qualifications and experience I have been a chemical engineer, involved over four decades with problems in the modeling and simulation of transport-limited (heat and mass) chemical reactions in multi-phase systems, I have of and on interested myself in challenging problems in extractive metallurgy. This is the first time I have veered of to continuum mechanics, at the age of 71! Author's reply. I thank Professor Narsimhan for his extensive contribution to the paper. It provided me with the stimulus to derive an extended model. However, there are some inaccuracies in his arguments that need further discussion. Professor Narsimhan's main concern is that there is not a good enough fit between the derived viscoelastic Kelvin model and the experimental data supplied by Güler1 (see Figure l1 on page 218 of my paper). I will therefore explain the choice of a viscoelastic model in more detail and also make specific comments on the arguments given in his contribution.

Jan 1, 1996

By A. García-Gutiérrez, A. Aragón-Jerónimo, R. Salazar-Mendoza

A theoretical analysis of a two-region solid-liquid flow system in horizontal pipes is presented, which considers a stationary bed of drill cuttings as a porous medium (-region) below of a two-phase dispersed flow (-region).The method of volume averaging was applied in this study to derive a rigorous mathematical model in which each variable is precisely defined. This model includes the volume-averaged transport equations for both the two-phase dispersed flow and the porous medium regions and terms from a macroscopic forces balance. The solution of the two-region model allowed evaluation of the behaviour of pressure gradient as a function of velocity, total volume fraction of cuttings and the relationship of the height of the stationary bed and pipe diameter. The solution is based on a backward finite difference explicit scheme. The simulated physical system is a pipe of 4.135 m in horizontal length and 0.0508 m in diameter. A one-dimensional, mesh-centred grid, consisting of 100 nodes, is used. The numerical results were compared with experimental data on slurry flows and a good agreement was found. Keywords: two-phase, cuttings transport, solid-liquid flow, drilling modelling, volume averaging.

Jan 1, 2007

By B. P. Gilbertson

In her wonderful book, 'The Guns of August', historian Barbara Tuchman tells us that the French war plan for 1914 was dedicated entirely to an offensive strategy, not a defensive one. Plan 17, as it was called, concentrated everything on a French advance to the Rhine, leaving the French left virtually unguarded. This strategy could only be justified by the fixed belief that the Germans could not deploy sufficient manpower to extend their invasion around through western Belgium and the low provinces; and this in turn was based on the belief that the Germans would never use reserve troops in the front line. Al evidence to the contrary was ignored. But when the war came, the Germans followed Count Von Schlieffen's plan; they did use reserves in the front line and they did come the long way around on the west. The result- as you know-was a protracted war, with fearful consequences for the rest of our century.

Jan 1, 1994

By E. Schoeman

Ion exchange resins were investigated for the effective recovery of platinum, palladium, and gold from a pregnant cyanide heap leach solution. Screening results indicated that strong-base anion exchange resins proved to be most effective in the recovery of these metal cyanides. Gold was selectively recovered with the use of Minix, while effective recovery of gold, platinum, and palladium over the base metals, copper, and iron, was achieved with Amberlite PWA-5. Successful elution of these metal cyanides was possible from both Minix and Amberlite PWA-5, using a 2M potassium thiocyanate solution at ambient temperature. Acidic thiourea was unable to elute platinum from either Minix or Amberlite PWA-5. Effective elution of palladium and gold were, however, achieved with use of acidic thiourea. Using these results, two conceptual flow diagrams for the recovery of these metals from cyanide solutions are proposed.

Jan 1, 2012

By C. J. Tonkin

Compressed air is widely used on South African gold mines. However, due to recent and proposed future electricity tariff increases it is quickly becoming too expensive to produce and use. Boxfront chute systems at ore passes were focused on during this study, and a number of alternative power sources were examined. After comparing primarily costs, and secondarily safety and practicality, of a number of systems based on water and hydraulic oil, a system making use of either air or water was determined to be the most cost effective. A payback time of 8 years was calculated, which will be significantly less taking into account the avoidance of failures due to electricity and water shortages, which would not affect this system due to its ability to swap between either air or water. It was recommended that this system be installed at all boxfront chutes as soon as possible so that the company can begin to benefit from the cost savings.

Jan 1, 2013

The May General Meeting of the Institute was held in Kelvin House, Johannesburg, on 21st May, 1969, at 4.30 p.m. Mr J. K. E. Douglas (Vice-President) was in the Chair. There were also present twenty-two Members, including Messrs F. P. Bath, M. Bareza, A. R. C. Fowler, D. M. Jamieson, C. M. Mavrocordatos, D. G. Maxwell and J. A. Nixon (Council Members), Messrs T. Davidson, G. L. Diering, E. T. Dunstan, D. E. H. French, K. Hodgson, O. A. E. Jackson, A. F. Lee, A. Louw, D. L. Starkey, R. K. Wheeler and M. Youngworth. Four Associate Members including Messrs D. Blair Hook and G. R. Still. One Student Mr N. A. Barcza. Thirteen Visitors, including Messrs S. H. Ash, D. L. G. Bayne, E. Bayne, S. Bell, W. S. Garrett, L. S. Gibbs, R. C. Hamilton, M. Maguire, D. Rose and J. D. van Niekerk. Total Present: Fourty-one. OBITUARY The Vice-President: "It is my sad duty to announce the death of the following member of the Institute: Thomas Spence Haldane, Member, who joined the Institute in 1924 and passed away on 21st December, 1968. As a mark of respect to the memory of the deceased and in sympathy with the bereaved, those present stood and observed silence for a few moments. MINUTES The Vice-President requested that confirmation of the minutes of the previous meeting be held over as they would only be appearing in the Journal of the following month. He also requested that confirmation of the minutes of the 75th Anniversary Meeting be held over. MEMBERSHIP The Vice-President: "I have much pleasure in announcing that the names of the under-mentioned candidates have been published in accordance with By-Law 5.2.2, and Council has elected them to membership of the Institute in the following grades: Members: Gideon Jacob Haumann, Peter John Cumming, Ian Stanley Dudman, Roderick Goldston Murchison. Associate Members: Francois Alwyn Beyers Fouche, Alan Marsh, Johannes Petrus van der Westhuysen, Waldo Edmund Stumpf, Ian Nicholas Ridley. Affiliates: Lutgerus Kolver Jooste, Roger Ainsley Ralph Kebble, Edward John Wainwright, Lewis William Davies. Graduate: Clive Graham Knobbs. MEMBER TRANSFERED TO A HIGHER GRADE From Student to Associate Member: Diethard OUo Eduard Fahrbach. I welcome the newly elected members to the Institute and congratulate the member who has been transferred to a higher grade." (Applause).

The May General Meeting of the Institute was held in Kelvin House, Johannesburg, on 21st May, 1969, at 4.30 p.m. Mr J. K. E. Douglas (Vice-President) was in the Chair. There were also present twenty-two Members, including Messrs F. P. Bath, M. Bareza, A. R. C. Fowler, D. M. Jamieson, C. M. Mavrocordatos, D. G. Maxwell and J. A. Nixon (Council Members), Messrs T. Davidson, G. L. Diering, E. T. Dunstan, D. E. H. French, K. Hodgson, O. A. E. Jackson, A. F. Lee, A. Louw, D. L. Starkey, R. K. Wheeler and M. Youngworth. Four Associate Members including Messrs D. Blair Hook and G. R. Still. One Student Mr N. A. Barcza. Thirteen Visitors, including Messrs S. H. Ash, D. L. G. Bayne, E. Bayne, S. Bell, W. S. Garrett, L. S. Gibbs, R. C. Hamilton, M. Maguire, D. Rose and J. D. van Niekerk. Total Present: Fourty-one. OBITUARY The Vice-President: "It is my sad duty to announce the death of the following member of the Institute: Thomas Spence Haldane, Member, who joined the Institute in 1924 and passed away on 21st December, 1968. As a mark of respect to the memory of the deceased and in sympathy with the bereaved, those present stood and observed silence for a few moments. MINUTES The Vice-President requested that confirmation of the minutes of the previous meeting be held over as they would only be appearing in the Journal of the following month. He also requested that confirmation of the minutes of the 75th Anniversary Meeting be held over. MEMBERSHIP The Vice-President: "I have much pleasure in announcing that the names of the under-mentioned candidates have been published in accordance with By-Law 5.2.2, and Council has elected them to membership of the Institute in the following grades: Members: Gideon Jacob Haumann, Peter John Cumming, Ian Stanley Dudman, Roderick Goldston Murchison. Associate Members: Francois Alwyn Beyers Fouche, Alan Marsh, Johannes Petrus van der Westhuysen, Waldo Edmund Stumpf, Ian Nicholas Ridley. Affiliates: Lutgerus Kolver Jooste, Roger Ainsley Ralph Kebble, Edward John Wainwright, Lewis William Davies. Graduate: Clive Graham Knobbs. MEMBER TRANSFERED TO A HIGHER GRADE From Student to Associate Member: Diethard Otto Eduard Fahrbach. I welcome the newly elected members to the Institute and congratulate the member who has been transferred to a higher grade." (Applause).

William Schreiner Findlay (1908 to 1980) had a distinguished career in the mining industry, to which a mere account of his appointments does not do full justice. However, they give some idea of his ability as an engineer and a manager.

Jan 1, 1981

By P. R. Jochens, A. A. Hejja

The effect of the reactivity of lime on desulphurization efficiency in the basic oxygen furnace by A. A. HEJJA,D. D. HOWAT, andP.R.jOCHENS Published in the Journal March 1973. DISCUSSION R. E. Leyman* The authors discuss in detail the effects of transport and storage at the steel plant on the reactivity of lime as measured by the DIN Reactivity Test. They attribute the deterioration in reactivity to the absorption of water vapour and carbon dioxide, but make no mention of the possible role of atmospheric sulphur dioxide in this respect. The significance of the mineralogical and surface characteristics of gold grains in the recovery process by C. E FEATHER and G. M. KOEN Published in the Journal February 1973. AUTHORS' REPLY TO DISCUSSION (Published in the Journal July 1973) H. P. Carlisle Mr Carlisle's questions and observations will be dealt with in the same order as they were raised. 1. How were the mass percentages of the grains determined from the sizes measured in polished section?

Jan 3, 1973

By D. G. Krige

Recent publications have demonstrated the important role that can be played by a priori information of the grade levels, variability, and spatial patterns in adjacent or nearby areas in improving the quality of grade estimates for virgin or sparsely drilled areas. A research project was therefore conducted involving the collection and analysis of extensive sampling and borehole data from 7 reefs on some 30 Witwatersrand mines. This paper shows that the 'equivalent' log variance for the two-parameter lognormal model provides a good basis for the study and comparison of the levels and behaviour of relative variances. The trends of these against the corresponding log areas were found to form distinctive patterns, which are useful for these purposes. The patterns for the Basal, Vaal, Carbon Leader, and Main Reef Series form a reasonably close group, whereas those for the V.C.R.(particularly where the facies are mixed), B Reef, and Kimberley-Elsburg Reefs (particularly for narrow channel widths) do not always conform. The patterns shown by underground chip samples are also compared with those obtained from borehole cores. It is shown how this information can be used to improve the borehole valuation of new mines and of virgin areas in existing mines.

Jan 1, 1993

By Sh. Arshadnejad

Stress analysis in a rock medium is essential to determine the stress concentration between two consecutive circular holes and prediction of fracture behaviour. When two consecutive circular holes in a hard rock medium such as granite are loaded internally by the pressure of non-explosive expansion material (NEEM), stress concentration occurs between the holes which then causes the rock to fracture. In this work, finite element (FE) analysis using Phase2 code was employed to study the stress concentration between two consecutive circular holes under internal pressure induced by NEEM. Effects of different hole diameters and spacings, rock properties and NEEM pressures have been analysed. The data gained from the numerical analysis and analytical solutions were then used to develop two models. These models were then modified by using the FE data and polynomial regression analysis. The developed analytical models showed to be in a very good agreement with the FE analysis. Hence, the developed models can be used with confidence to determine stress distribution and concentration factors around two consecutive circular holes in a hard and brittle rock which are loaded internally by the pressure induced from the NEEM. Keywords Finite element method, non-explosive, quarry mining, stress concentration..

Jan 1, 2011

Your Council has pleasure in submitting its report for the year ended 30th June, 1969. COUNCIL The following served as Office Bearers during the year under review: Messrs. R. C. J. Goode (President), J. K. E. Douglas and V. C. Robinson (Vice-Presidents), P. Lambooy (Immediate Past President) and D. G. Maxwell (Honorary Treasurer). Members of Council: Messrs R. J. Adamson, M. Barcza, F. P. Bath, Or J. M. Bereza, Or W. Bleloch, Messrs H. Britten, H. E. Cross, A. R. C. Fowler, A. E. Gilfillan, G. W. Holl, Prof D. D. Howat, Or J. P. Hugo, Messrs C. J. Irving, D. M. Jamieson, J. G. Kirchner, Prof J. de V. Lambrechts, Mr C. E. Mavrocordatos, Or J. T. McIntyre, Mr J. A. Nixon, Prof R. P. Plewman, Messrs J. F. Reid, H. Simon, C. G. Sowry, W. T. Stobart and P. W. J. van Rensburg. Ten Council meetings were held during the year with an average attendance of eighteen. FINANCE The annual accounts, which are attached to this report, show an excess of expenditure over income of R2,124, compared with an excess of income over expenditure of R4,218 last year. There are a number of reasons for this substantial change. There was a loss on realization of investments compared with a substantial surplus in recent years. The publication of the Journal once again resulted in a large loss in spite of a generous subvention of R2,000 from the Department of Cultural Affairs and other assistance amounting to R750. The revenue from sales of publications was down considerably. This is a figure which fluctuates considerably from year to year. The secretarial fee was considerably higher than previously. Due to pressure of work it was necessary for the Secretary to relinquish his duties with the Institute of Land Surveyors and, therefore, for this Institute to assume the additional staff costs involved. Finally there was unusual expenditure on the 75th Anniversary celebrations. There was a pleasing increase in revenue from subscriptions, due to the steadily increasing membership, but this was quite inadequate to cover the substantial increases in expenditure and losses in revenue mentioned above. The changes that have been effected in the arrangements for the publication of the Journal have been mentioned elsewhere in this report. It is expected that these will bring about substantial financial benefits in the long term. The MacArthur Forrest Memorial Fund shows an excess of income over expenditure of Rl00 and the total fund was therefore increased by this amount to R4,206. The balance sheet indicates that the market value of quoted shares and debentures increased during the year from R8,755 to R13,059, while the Accumulated Funds now amount to R22,567 as against R24,691 last year. MEMBERSHIP Fifty-six Members, fifty-five Associate Members, thirteen Graduates, twenty-two Affiliates and twenty- nine Students were elected during the year. Twelve Members were admitted to Life Membership; seven Associate Members were transferred to the grade of Member; four Graduates and two Students were transferred to the grade of Associate Member; five Students were transferred to the grade of Graduate; three Affiliates were transferred to the grade of Member; five Affiliates were transferred to the grade of Associate Member. Three Members, seven Associate Members, two Graduates, two Affiliates and six Students were removed from the Membership Roll in terms of By-Law 7.7.1. Your Council records with deep regret the death during the year of the following members: E. F. J. Bulman (Member), E. F. Chapin (Member), R. A. H. Flugge-de-Smidt (Hon. Life Member), T. S. Haldane (Member), J. M. Massie (Associate Member), S. W. Page (Student), S. R. Rabson (Member), M. Ramsay (Member), F. Wartenweiler (Hon. Life Member). A comparative statement of the membership as at 30th June, 1969, and the end of the previous year is shown in the following tabulation: 30th June 30th June 1968 1968 Honorary Life Members 12 10 Honorary Members 6 6 Life Members 176 189 Members 488 514 Associate Members 409 448 Graduates 60 68 Affiliates153 155 Students152 162 1,456 1,552 PAPERS AND JOURNAL The Institute is changing the format of the Journal from the present size to the standard international A4 size with effect from August, 1969. In making this change it will conform to more general practice today in regard to publications and this should effect certain economies and facilitate selling of advertising space. It has been arranged that in future the publication of the Journal, including advertisement sales, will be handled by Kelvin Publications (Pty.) Ltd. who are already doing this work satisfactorily for the Mechanical and Electrical Engineering Institutes. In making these changes the opportunity was taken of redesigning the outer cover of the Journal to incorporate the new coat of arms. The Presidential Address by Mr R. C. J. Goode and twelve papers which were published in the Journal during the year are listed below: August, 1968: Presidential Address: "The Institute-In retrospect and prospect." September, 1968: "Rotary mill liner practice in the South African gold mining industry," by J. H. French and O. E. Lissner.

The mining rock-mass rating (MAMA) classification system was introduced in 1974 as a development of the CSIA geomechanics classification system to cater for diverse mining situations. The fundamental difference was the recognition that in situ rock-mass ratings (AMA) had to be adjusted according to the mining environment so that the final ratings (MAMA) could be used for mine design. The adjustment parameters are weathering, mining-induced stresses, joint orientation, and blasting effects. It is also possible to use the ratings (AMA) in the determination of empirical rock-mass strength (AMS) and then in the application of the adjustments to arrive at a design rock-mass strength (DAMS). This classification system is versatile, and the rock-mass rating (AMA), the mining rock-mass rating (MAMA), and the design rock-mass strength (DAMS) provide good guidelines for the purposes of mine design. However, in some cases a more detailed investigation may be required, in which case greater attention is paid to specific parameters of the system. Narrow and weak geological features that are continuous within and beyond the stope or pillar must be identified and rated separately. The paper describes the procedure required to arrive at the ratings, and presents practical examples of the application of the system to mine design.

Jan 1, 1990

By Z. Yang, X. Bian

"The synthesis of 3-hydroxy-2-naphthyl hydroxamic acid (H2O5) as a collector for bastnaesite is described. The flotation performance of H2O5 with respect to bastnaesite was investigated by flotation tests, measurements of the surface adsorption capacity, and polarizing microscopy. The results indicated that H2O5 exhibits superior collecting performance compared with direct flotation recovery of bastnaesite, with recoveries above 90% at pH 8–9. The adsorption mechanism of H2O5 on bastnaesite was studied by solution chemistry analysis and ?-potential tests. The results showed that the adsorption of H2O5 is associated with the types and concentrations of hydrolysis products of rare earth cations on the bastnaesite surface. At pH 8–9, the hydrolysis-dominant components RE(OH)2+ and RE(OH)2 + of the rare earth cations were adsorbed onto the bastnaesite surfaces, which were considered to be the major positive active points and were beneficial to chemical adsorption of the reagents. The pH range of 7–10 was optimum for bastnaesite floatability, and the adsorption of H205 on bastnaesite was by means of chemical adsorption through formation of a five-membered ring chelate. IntroductionThe rare earth elements (REEs) have long been known as ‘industrial gold’ and are widely used in the petroleum, chemical, ceramic, metallurgical, and permanent magnet material industries because of their special physicochemical properties (Chen, 2011; Krishnamurthy and Guptac, 2002; Esquivel, Bohe, and Pasquevich, 2002; Abrahami, Xiao, and Yang, 2015). Demand for REEs is growing in response to continuous advances in science and technology. Currently, most REEs are extracted from bastnaesite ((Ce,La)CO3F) (Chelgani et al., 2015; Yosry, 1990), which is recovered from rare earth ores by flotation. Typically, hydroxamic acids are used as bastnaesite collectors (Xu, 2015; Ren, 1997; Mousumi and Venugopal, 2016). Research into the mechanism of interaction between hydroxamic acids and bastnaesite is important for improving the recoveries of bastnaesite. However, there have been few studies that examine this mechanism."

Jan 1, 2017

By C. van Buuren, R. F. Sandenbergh, P. J. Pieterse

Gold extraction from double refractory ores using conventional cyanidation has proved challenging due to the presence of carbon within the ore. Carbon particles may adsorb leached gold resulting in gold losses to tailings, i.e. preg-robbing the gold. Some of the preg-robbed gold may be recovered by the application of the HiTeCC process on CIL tailings. The process developed by Metso Outotec involves caustic conditioning of the tailings followed by high temperature desorption and simultaneous adsorption onto virgin activated carbon of the aurodicyanide. The aim of this paper was to develop a model for the HiTeCC process which could be used to support design and optimisation of the process, based on the adsorption characteristics of the preg-robbing and activated carbons. It was found that accurate experimental isotherms can be used to predict the behaviour of preg-robbing adsorbents. Comparing the sorption isotherms for preg-robbing ores and activated carbon indicated similar dependencies on temperature and ionic composition. Applying boundary layer diffusion models coupled with experimentally determined isotherms for preg-robbing ore and activated carbon, the HiTeCC process was successfully simulated at experimental and plant scale. Gold recovery of the HiTeCC process is most sensitive to the temperature of desorption and gold loading of the activated carbon, with increased temperature improving recovery. The gold loading of the activated carbon in the process should always be maintained lower than that of the normalised pregrobbing carbon gold loading to ensure favourable conditions for adsorption onto the activated carbon. Caustic conditioning stabilises adsorption and is therefore not necessary during the desorption stages of the process, but potentially improves recovery during adsorption. Keywords: Preg-robbing, refractory gold ores, HiTeCC, aurodicyanide

Jan 1, 2020

By K. Koruyan

Although remote sensing technology has been available for many years, it has rarely been used for monitoring mining activity. Recent studies indicate that remote sensing is also a valuable tool for managing and planning certain aspects of the mining operation. In this paper, we examine areal expansion of marble quarries and the affected vegetation over a period of 10 years in the Mugla region in Turkey, using geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing (RS) techniques. Images captured by ASTER Level 3A01 (3D Ortho Data Set), Landsat 5, and Landsat 7 satellites between 2001 and 2009 were used for the analysis. Changes in the natural vegetation as a function of the production level in the marble quarry were calculated using the normalized difference vegetation index. According to the study results, land cover and natural vegetation decreased by less than 3 per cent and 1 per cent respectively between 2001 and 2009, following an upsurge in mining activity in the region.

Jan 1, 2012

By H. J. R. Way

Dr H. J. R. Way: In his reply to my queries Mr Bath still adheres to his statement that it may be possible to replace the estimated R200 million reduction in gold revenue in 1980 by exports of ferro-chromium, and apparently based his conclusion on a growth rate in demand for corrosion resistant steels of 10 per cent per annum in the next few years. As I pointed out at the previous discussion at Middelburg this would entail a production of about one million tons of ferro-chromium in 1980. Exact statistics of South African ferro-chromium production are not available, a fact which is very much to be regretted. But statistics of exports of ferro-chromium are available from "Foreign Trade Statistics" of the Customs and Excise. These show that South Africa exported 99,580 short tons in 1967. The quantity of ferro-chromium consumed in South Africa in 1967 was fairly small and we can therefore assume that the production was 99,580 tons. For this amount to grow to 1,000,000 tons in 1980 would require a growth rate of 19.4 per cent per annum. At 10 per cent this would grow to 344,000 tons and at 7 per cent 240,000 tons. The following growth rates in the form of average trends are pertinent: STEEL - Per annum World steel ingot production - 1957-67 – 6.8 per cent Free-world ingot production - 1957-67 – 6.0 per cent Consumptions of crude steel by four major Free-world Consumers - 1957-67 - 5.6 per cent CHROMITE World production - 1952-67 - 2.5 per cent South African total sales - 1948-67 – 5.4 per cent South African exports - 1948-67 – 3.9 per cent United States consumption, very irregular, but - 1962-67 – 6.5 per cent FERRO-CHROMIUM - Per annum United States consumption - 1952-67 - 6.5 per cent South African exports - 1957-62 - 25.2 per cent South African exports - 1962-66 - 41.9 per cent South African exports - 1966-68 - 21.2 per cent These figures show that exports of ferro-chromium have been growing at a very high rate varying from 21.2 per cent to 41.9 per cent since 1957, but in view of the market situation it seems somewhat doubtful if that high rate can be maintained up to 1980. Of our 1966 exports U.S.A. took 63 per cent which was 53 per cent of their total imports. Their average consumption is trending at a growth rate of 6.5 per cent per annum from 1952-67, but the growth from 1964-66 was 5- 2 per cent and 1966-67, -12 per cent!

Mar 1, 1968