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By Alan C. Noble

INTRODUCTION Forecasting of metal and mineral prices is a complex and hazardous undertaking. In order to accurately forecast prices, the complexities of both marketing and production must be modeled for each commodity. Even with the most detailed model, the economy may change unexpectedly, invalidating the forecast. Because of these factors, this chapter will not attempt to present specific methods for price estimation. It will, however, review the fundamentals of price forecasting as applied to planning and design of the final pit shell. Recognizing that no price estimate can be exact, sensitivity analysis will be reviewed as an approach to coping with these unknown variations.

Jan 1, 1979

By Herbert Everest

THE idea of economical production is usually associated with large operations, tonnages, and mines, with even larger capital behind them. Nevertheless many small mines operate in the shadow of large competitors and make a good showing on the capital invested despite larger overhead expenses. For the purpose of this discussion I will divide the cost of production into classes, and specify opposite each the approximate percentage expended thereon: 1. Labor, including miners and company men; 60 to 75 per cent. 2: Development, including all necessary yardage, room turning, crosscuts, etc.; 7 to 12 per cent. 3. Deadwork, covering payment to miners for handling falls, drawslate, or faults, rock work, water, and in general, all nonproductive labor; 3 to 7 per cent. 4. Supplies: mine timbers, oil, brattice material, lumber, cement, and repairs to equipment; 2 to 6 per cent. 5. Expense: management, selling, office, taxes, etc.; 1 to 5 per cent. 6. Depreciation of coal reserves and royalties; 6 to 10 per cent. 7. Depreciation of equipment and interest on capital invested; 1 to 3 per cent. 8. Fuel; ½ to 1 ½ per cent. The labor cost for a small mine is relatively much lower than for a large mine, particularly the sum paid to company men. Idle-pay expense is cut to a minimum; the labor item being larger than all the others together, a saving in labor makes a decided showing on the total cost. The development charges in small and large mines are about the same. There should be a small showing on the Beadwork item in favor of the small mine. The unit cost for supplies is usually small in the small mine. The operator of the small mine finds, owing to a limited tonnage, that the expenses of management, selling, etc., are abnormally high.

Jan 1, 1916

By Herbert A. Everest

Discussion of the paper of HERBERT A. EVEREST presented at the New York meeting, February, 1916, and printed in Bulletin No. 109, January, 1916, pp. 165 to 167. NEWELL G. ALFORD, Earlington, Ky. (communication to the Sec-retary*).-Mr. Everest's statement concerning the economies in a small coal mine has interested me very much. The majority of discussions on coal-mine economy omit the small operator and for this reason Mr. Everest's paper should lead to productive thought. I agree that close concentration of working places and constructive supervision of labor are two items of salvation to the small operator. It is also true that small mines often yield as much profit per capital invested as their larger neighbors. Mr. Everest also says that the small operator has so keen a regard for the inroad on his profits that even one extra day hand is an extravagance not tolerated, and this is rightly so. But, does not this earmark of the small operator in many cases offer a clue to his vital weakness? A credit balance is the acid test of success in any enterprise. With the small operator who owns practically all the capital stock this is particularly significant. He never takes his eyes off the market price and at the same time strains every nerve to cut down his payroll. In several cases I have noted that the resultant close supervision of labor was in fact too close. The "stitch in time" was not applied to the repair of this or that, with a decided increase to the cost of the work when it had to be done at the expense of cutting off the run when orders were on the books.

Jan 5, 1916

By C. D. Demond

IN reverberatory smelting, fuel is the chief item of expense, as it commonly is in processes using large percentages of it. Hence the most suitable supply is eagerly sought; that is, the supply which, in the end, yields the greatest net profit. The better grades are not infrequently bought, even at an advanced price, because they are apt to be decidedly more economical. High price, of itself, however, is no merit, for freight is generally the largest part of the cost of fuel, and the nearby supply may yield as high efficiency as that from a greater distance. If a poorer grade is reasonably good, and if its cost is low enough to more than offset the decreased technical efficiency, it is of course the more suitable. Any smelting, operation depends for both efficiency and economy on raising the furnace atmosphere considerably above the "critical" temperature; that is, above the temperature at which smelting is completed. If this temperature is not exceeded, smelting stops, no matter how much coal is burned; and the real value of a fuel depends on the number of degrees that the temperature is continuously kept above this point. For example, if one fuel maintains 2,500° F. and another only 2,100° F., while the "critical" temperature is 2,000° F., the first is worth at least five times as much as the second, although the increase above atmospheric temperature is only one-fifth more in one case than in the other. This "margin of temperature" above the smelting point is much more significant than the total number of heat units developed from the fuel. The case is parallel to that of water flowing from a pipe. The reservoir may contain a billion gallons of water; but, even though the fluid has come to the nozzle, not a drop will run out, where it can be of practical use, unless the level in the reservoir is higher than the nozzle; and the speed and volume of flow depend on how much higher the level is in the reservoir than at this point. If the temperature inn a furnace is not above the critical level there will be no slag to flow over the skimming plate, even though there are enough heat units to bring an unlimited quantity of charge up to the point of slag formation; and just as the value of a water supply for the purpose of putting out a fire depends largely on the effective head, so the difficulties of furnace management

Jan 8, 1914

By R. E. Hobart

THE development of the Hauto power plant and the claims made by various engineers that electricity was more economical than steam for power purposes in and about the mines; led the Lehigh Coal and Navigation Co., in 1911, to conduct a test to ascertain the consumption of power used by a large steam hoisting engine. The question being one on which no reliable information could be found, and the opinion of various engineers differing to such an extent, it was decided that a test under actual operating conditions was necessary. This was arranged for at one of the collieries. The engine selected was a 30 by 60-in. (76.2 by 152.4-cm.) piston-valve engine of modern type, and comparatively new. The boiler plant from which the hoist received its power was about 600 ft. (182 m.) from the engine, the latter being fed by a 10-in. (25.4-cm.) steam line insulated with magnesia pipe covering. Two batteries of the boiler plant, aggregating 1200 hp., were cut off and fed into a separate steam line leading direct to the hoist engine. Steam auxiliaries, consisting of feed-water pump and blowers, were fed by the boilers in test, and their consumption charged against the hoist. A barrel weighing device was installed, as it was felt that this would be the most accurate way of determining the consumption of water. The fuel, No. 3 buckwheat, was carefully weighed, and every precaution was taken to make the test accurate in every particular. The test was run for 1 week, or a total of 168 hr. A record was kept of the number of trips hoisted or lowered, and continuous indicator cards were taken. One particular set of cards was taken with the hoist operating balanced, and also with the hoist operating with no counterweight other than the empty cage, the coal in the car being weighed. The speed of the hoist was taken by means, of a graphic recording instrument which registered the number of revolutions every 5 sec. From this record, speed-time curves were plotted.

Jan 2, 1918

By B. W. Frazier

IN the numbers of the Engineering and Mining Journal of June 27th and July 11th, 1874, there appeared some very complete statistics of the working of some anthracite blast-furnaces belonging to a large establishment in this country, followed by calculations of the heat requirements of the furnaces, similar to those which have been made for European furnaces by Mr. I. Lowthian Bell, Prof. Gruner, Prof. Akerman and others. To the author of these valuable papers, Mr. John A. Church, of New York, the thanks of American iron metallurgists are due for this attempt (the first, to my knowledge at least), to attack systematically and scientifically the problem of economy of fuel in our anthracite blast-furnaces, by applying the formulas obtained from European practice and from the experiments of European metallurgists, to the determination of the amounts and the modes of distribution of the heat production and absorption in our furnaces. In order to facilitate a comparison of the results thus obtained for the anthracite furnaces in question with those obtained for the best types of European coke furnaces, I have reduced to the same standard of heat units (the product of the ton and the degree Centigrade), and placed side by side, the calculations of the heat requirements of one of the furnaces of the Clarence works, as given by Mr. Bell, of a furnace at Pouzin, on the banks of the Rhone, given by Prof. Gruner, and of the anthracite furnaces for 1869-73, as given -by Mr. Church. Table I shows the different conditions of working of the three furnaces, of which Table II gives the respective heat requirements. I have made this latter table in such a manner as to give for each furnace its heat requirements, both according to the views of Mr. Bell and those of Prof. Gruner. Mr. Bell assumes that all the carbonic acid produced by the decomposition of the carbonate of lime of the charge, is reduced to carbonic oxide by contact with solid carbon ; also, that the carbon of the pig iron is a portion of that deposited in the ore in the upper part of the furnace, by the dissociation of carbonic oxide. Prof. Gruner, on the other hand, assumes that all the carbonic acid of the carbonates of the charge escapes unreduced, and that the carbon deposited in the upper part of the furnace, by the dissocia¬tion of carbonic oxide, is again converted into carbonic oxide or

Jan 1, 1875

By Robert J. Linney

Reserve Mining Co. produces 5 million tons of iron ore pellets per year. The finished product runs about 65.50 pct Fe, with 7.75 to 8.00 pct SiO2. Less than 12 pct arrives at the blast furnaces smaller than 3/8 in. This plant was originally designed to produce 3.75 tons annually-not 5 million. To handle the increased tonnage a fifth fine crushing line was added, and some very minor changes were made.

Jan 9, 1959

As a service to its readers, MINING ENGINEERING is publishing the mineral industry portion of the 1957 list of Accredited Undergraduate Engineering Curricula in the United States. This list, revised annually, is issued by the Education Committee of the Engineers Council for Professional Development, and covers all phases of engineering education. The AIME is actively represented on ECPD, which was jointly organized by the Founder Societies and various other groups interested in the professional recognition of engineers. ECPD is merely authorized by its constituent organizations to publish a list of accredited engineering curricula for use as desired by those agencies which require such a list. It has no authority to impose any restrictions or standardizations on schools. (Date following school refers to year of initial accrediting.)

Jan 7, 1958

As a service to its readers, MINING ENGINEERING is publishing the mineral industry portion of the 1952 list of "Accredited Undergraduate Engineering Curricula in the United States." This list, revised annually, is issued by the Education Committee of the Engineers Council for Professional Development, and covers all phases of engineering education. The AIME is actively represented on ECPD, which was jointly organized by the Founder Societies and various other groups interested in the professional recognition of engineers.

Jan 4, 1953

By AIME AIME

IT its annual meeting on Oct. 21 and 22, the Engineers' Council for Professional Development announced the selection of J. P. H. Perry. vice-president of the Turner Construction Co. and prominent civil engineer of New York City as its new Chairman. He succeeds C. F. Scott, who becomes Chairman of its Committee on Professional Recognition. S. L. Tyler, Secretary of the American Institute of Chemical Engineers, succeeds A. B. Parsons as ECPD Secretary. R. E. Doherty is Vice-chairman. C. E. Davies remains as Assistant Secretary, as do R. L. Sackett as Chairman of the Committee on Student Selection and Guidance, O. W. Eshhach as Chairman of the Committee on Engineering Training, and Karl T. Compton as Chairman of the Committee on Engineering Schools.

Jan 1, 1938

The October issues* of the Journals of the three AIME Societies carried a brief resume of the historical development of various technical and professional organizations which in some immediate or remote way affect the individual member of AIME. This resume was presented by the Institute Committee on Inter-Engineering Society Cooperation. Recently, several plans have evolved designed as a first step to provide a so-called "unity organization" for the entire engineering profession. Almost all of the plans involve Engineers' Joint Council, Engineers' Council for Professional Development, and National Society for Professional Engineers in some way or other. Hence our committee is presenting to our membership a resume of the recent activities of the two umbrella organizations and of NSPE. More detailed information on any of these organizations may be obtained from annual reports published by the organizations.

Jan 2, 1961

By AIME AIME

ED DIX, after studying both mechanical and electrical engineering at Cornell, started out to be an electrical engineer, then taught material testing at Cornell, and decided to become a metallurgist. He was successively employed by the Morse Chain Co. as metallographist, by the Baltimore Copper Smelting and Rolling Co., as chief of the testing department of the Bureau of Aircraft Production, as assistant engineer of tests of the Aluminum Castings Co., and as chief of the metals branch, engineering division, U. S. Air Service. Since 1923 he has been with the Aluminum Co. of America, now as chief metallurgist.

Jan 1, 1936

POLITICAL developments, the impact of Korean warfare necessitating immediate rearmament plans, and recent developments in mining taconites have focused attention on their immediate exploitation to fill the gap created by diminishing reserves. The question of rich foreign ores versus low grade development is past-we need both sources with emphasis on the immediate large scale mining of taconites. In the past three months several things have occurred which add to the taconite picture: (1) Pellets have been used successfully in the blast furnace by Armco. (2) In Congress HR 8512 was introduced by Congressman Blatnik of Minnesota to amend the lending powers of RFC to permit long term loans on basic mining developments, particularly the taconites, which may be needed for the strengthening of the national economy. (3) Walter S. Tower, president of the American Iron & Steel Institute, announced that American steel companies are planning expansion of 6,000,000 tons of steelmaking capacities in the next few years. (4) The outbreak of war in Korea has obliged the United States to rearm and make plans for a semipermanent defense establishment to which 10 to 12 pct of the national income will be budgeted. (5) Startling new advances have been made in the Linde Air Products Co.'s jet-piercing drilling. The United States is now confronted with the problem of increasing its steel capacity and at the same time of securing enough iron ore to supply this increase as well as make provision for the rapidly decreasing supply of rich iron ore on the Mesabi range. Taconites, the low grade iron ore at the east end of the Mesabi, of which there are literally billions and billions of tons of easily concentratable magnetic ore, are the immediate answer. According to the Wall Street Journal on July 24: "Reserve Mining Co., backed by such steelmakers as the Armco Steel Corp., Wheeling Steel Co., Republic Steel Corp., is reported ready-as soon as the pending bill clears (HR 8512)-to seek a $100 million federal loan to build a taconite processing plant at Beaver Bay, Minn., to produce about five million tons (of pellets) annually of 60 pct to 65 pct in iron ore . . ." Experimental work indicates that pellets may be the final form, rather than nodules, agglomerates, or sinter. At Ashland, Ky., the Reserve Mining Co., which has obtained a

Jan 9, 1950

A New Process Builds An Industry

Jan 7, 1951

Are Stockpile Requirements Exaggerated? THE federal stockpile of strategic and critical materials was created for an emergency. The emergency has occurred but no withdrawals are being made from the stockpile. On the contrary, the-rate of stockpiling is being increased. A serious dislocation between supply and demand for metals exists and purchases for the stockpile are a significant contributing factor in this situation.

Jan 3, 1951

A FEW nights ago while working in the small hours of the morning on a clarion message intended for this page, we repaired to the kitchen for coffee, as is our wont when the solitude of the late hour and the stillness of the night seduce thoughts from the job at hand to reminiscences. The thought occurred, as we slowly dissolved the instant coffee in boiling water, that this modern world of canned, frozen, and dried foods deprives us of some of the subtler and therefore more delightful pleasures of life. We recall the aroma of boiling coffee which greeted us on getting up in the morning before the ease of instant coffee deprived us of the aroma from the old coffees. This line of thinking led us to place the blame on our wife for taking the easy way of making coffee and thereby depriving us of some of our enjoyment. From thinking about our spouse, it is only a short step to thinking about "the boss" or bosses in general.

Jan 9, 1951

THERE have been two important accomplishments of the Truman administration; the Hoover Commission report on inefficiency and waste in government and the report of the Paley Commission on the natural resources of the United States. Both reports are in the interest of the American people and should transcend the boundaries of political parties. Both reports are starting points for the formulation of policies which must be continuously revised to meet changing conditions. Regardless of the outcome of the election the principles embodied in these two great documents must be kept alive. The Paley report is right in our own bailiwick of mineral raw materials and it behooves us to study it carefully as our responsibility to posterity. To those in the mining industry who have limited their field of observation to moving rock or to metal prices it may come as a surprise that our production of such staples as copper, lead, and zinc has fallen behind increased requirements to the point that substantial tonnages must be imported. Iron ore is next on the list and everybody knows that such metals as tin, tungsten, chromium, manganese, nickel, and cobalt are imported almost exclusively. The crisis in raw materials pointed up by the Paley report has been reported annually by Elmer Pehrson and others to small gatherings at the Mineral Economics Division sessions at the Annual Meeting for as long as we can remember. In September 1949, the United Nations Economic and Social Council held an international resource conference at Lake Success which disclosed these same grave conclusions: - Consumption of raw materials is multiplying at an alarming rate, faster than discoveries or replacements are being made. - Production has been wasteful and utilization lavishly beyond enginee¬ing and practical requirements. - Industrialized nations are depleted and many raw materials consumed by industry are not found in the industrialized countries. - Nations formerly exporters of raw materials are increasingly building their own consuming industries. - Political forces in the world are limiting access to raw materials. The Paley Commission selecting the quarter century, 1950 to 1975, to project raw material requirements for the United States, pointed out obstacles to meeting these requirements, and made recommendations for procurement. It is not important that we disagree that cobalt consumption will reach 344 pct of present, or fluorspar 187 pct when iron and ferroalloys are only expected to increase 75 pct. What is important it that the fabulous appetite of the United States for mineral raw materials has consumed more since World War I than was consumed by the entire world in all recorded history prior to 1914. And, unless the people of the United States are satisfied to remain at their present standard of living (which is unthinkable) this consumption is correctly plotted by the Paley Commission as continuing to expand. If the U. S. is to continue on a course of progress, it must procure raw materials wherever it can at the lowest possible cost. Natural resources are clearly an area in which the broadest cooperation between industry and government must exist to achieve efficient exploitation, economic consumption, and expansion of sources of supply. The message of the Paley report requires action comparable to that of the North Atlantic Pact. Its implication is as significant as military preparedness. It is a world problem. It is a mining engineering problem. Don't let it die!

Jan 1, 1952

RECENTLY, we were asked to name the greatest contribution to progress in mining technology during the past 25 years. Immediately, the introduction of the pneumatic hammer for making blastholes came to mind because it can be credited with speeding the excavation of rock and the elimination of hand drilling. Possibly this answer was so spontaneous because we were working on this "drilling issue" Of MINING ENGINEERING. Present drilling tools have devel¬oped so rapidly, that a great deal of engineering is. required in the selection of bits, steel, and machines for the drilling conditions at each mine. Formerly a modicum of engineering was utilized in selection of equipment for it was purchased from manufacturer preference. With the development of alloy drill steels, tungsten-carbide bits, throwaway bits, and the jackleg drill, mining companies began doing more experimental work before making selections. It is unfortunately true, that each operator must begin at the beginning by doing his own test work before choosing his drilling method, and tools. Some of this work has been done very well-under controlled conditions and obtaining proper data on the variables. Such data should be accumulated from the various mines, tabulated, and published. Such a volume would be of tremendous help to the small operator in selecting equipment and would permit the research departments of the larger companies to formulate some measure of rock drillability and to undertake more specialized research on the different phases of drilling.

Jan 1, 1952

EDUCATION is a business; and, if the consumer is satisfied with the product, no one has any grounds for complaint. "Pretty well satisfied" about slims up the attitude of the mining industry toward the young graduates presently entering the field. Yet, with amazing regularity the controversy over the five-year curriculum recurs in educational circles. The educational mills grind out their products, some higher grade than others, depending on individual proclivity. The cycle continues almost without interruption. Arthur Taggart, however, takes his bowie knife to some of the sturdiest limbs of the tree of knowledge in his article on engineering education on page 770 of this issue. As all who know him might suspect, the pruning is not restrained. With one swing of the knife, such practically-labeled courses as Mine Design are stricken from the tree and transplanted to the field of Graduate Education. Emphasis on the basic sciences and the study of man through courses in history, economics, and literature are recommended to constitute an undergraduate curriculum. Such courses show the least depreciation and therefore give the student the most for his money. Partial justification for this dramatic departure from tradition is explained by the increasing number of companies giving training courses. Why make the student pay for what he can get paid for learning after graduation, the author argues. Other leading educators espouse this doctrine. Dean S. C. Hollister of Cornell, for the Committee on Adequacy and Standards of Engineering Education, recommended to ECPD in 1951 that emphasis be placed on the basic sciences. "Sifting back through the curriculum, it seems clear that instruction in the basic sciences, if taught in a manner such that knowledge of them makes available working tools, contributes the most sustaining part of the curriculum", reported the committee. Note that he would utilize practical problems from the fields of engineering in teaching the sciences. In our opinion the important thing to learn in college is how to think the engineering approach. Recitation on traditional solutions of classic problems sharpens the memory, not the ingenuity of the student. The engineering schools of the nation recognize the advantage of great emphasis on fundamentals, and the inclusion of cultural courses in the curriculum. However, industry presently requires graduates to have a substantial knowledge of the tools of the trade upon graduation. This means that the colleges are forced to pare to the bone to encompass the required studies in the time allotted. In addition, there is the limitation of student money. College educators also claim that entering freshmen are often improperly prepared in such subjects as writing and mathematics. These considerations make it difficult for the critic of the engineering graduate to make any headway with the educators. Actually with the mounting problems imposed by lower grade and more complex ores, a new breed of engineers is needed. The impetus for this new product must come from industry. If there was a concerted effort from industry for an improved type of engineer, the colleges would modify their aims to meet the demand for the kind of individual desired.

Jan 1, 1952

DEPENDENCY on foreign sources for many mineral raw materials is a characteristic of our economy which is becoming painfully evident. Although investment in foreign mining projects has increased, it has not kept up with the growing demand for foreign minerals. The sphere of American investment capital in mining ventures abroad has been severely limited by the rise of nationalism in many underdeveloped countries. Consequently, we can look back over half a century in which mining investment, exclusive of petroleum, has increased by 50 pct whereas other American investments abroad have multiplied by better than 300 pct. Investment in foreign mining or petroleum encounters different problems than capital investment for other industries. It is rarely invested in industrialized nations. Most of it goes to countries with expanding frontiers, like Canada, or to underdeveloped nations like Liberia. It must be used for building communities, recruiting and training labor, and establishing lines of communication and transportation. These complications are an accepted part of the mining game. However, the most complex problem is in those countries which consider mineral exploitation a usurpation of the people's natural heritage. This is a characteristic of the young government existing by a tenuous balance of power in an underdeveloped nation. American mining capital understandably has shunned these nations as being poor investment risks. However, they possess minerals which are needed by industry. Our government has attempted to stimulate mineral supplies beyond those provided from abroad by private capital. ECA, now under DMPA, makes loans to foreign mining companies. Since the ECA program cannot be expected to continue indefinitely, Point IV seems to be the logical next step to encourage foreign countries to fill our shortages. However, only 1 pct of the $35 million budget provided in the first year for Point IV was alloted for mining programs. Considering the need for minerals and the difficulties of procuring them by private investment, a larger share is needed and justifiable. Those who have been engaged in foreign mining can vouch for the fact that it takes many decades to teach the complex technology and economics of mining to the natives of under-developed countries. For this reason Point IV must be considered a long range program. Mineral requirements for the present must be met by more direct measures. Encouragement of private investment in foreign mining by such incentives as tax relief on profits from foreign sources, international bank-borrowing facilities for private capital, and diplomatic assistance in encouraging foreign countries to cooperate are imperative for our future mineral security.

Jan 1, 1952