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By William J. McCutheon

This paper presents some personal observations obtained during the course of visits to Europe, Africa, Latin America and the United States to talk with senior decision-makers in the copper industry about their views of markets, prices and the future of copper. The industry's future has never been particularly easy to define; with the changes of recent years, prediction has become even more difficult. The author's personal assessments of the present and future are offered for comment.

Jan 1, 1986

By Sheldon P. Wimpfen

Forecasting, an ancient art, is con-ducted by everyone in varying degrees. It is a vital aspect of mineral production and conditions must be predicted over a long time frame in all aspects of the industry from exploration to plant construction. Although many government agencies as well as private industry make forecasts, there are insufficent "make good" analyses performed. The performance of more such studies could sharpen forecasting ability.

Jan 1, 1983

One of the major objectives of cost analysis is to enable the manager to predict the financial outcomes of decisions. To accomplish this, the future costs and benefits of alternative courses of action must be determined. If care- fully used, information about past financial performance can be helpful in this analysis despite the fact that, by definition, financial reporting information is historical. In many cases, both revenues and costs need to be estimated for decision- making. For the production manager, additional revenue is a result of increased throughput or recovery of valuable material from the stream of mined material. A reduction in operating cost, although similar to a revenue increase in its financial impact, is estimated using slightly different techniques. Generally, the estimation of cost is more difficult than the estimation of revenue. Most cost estimates have two components: an estimate of fixed costs and an estimate of variable costs. As discussed in chapter 5, the total cost of an activity during a specified period can be expressed as: Total cost = (Variable cost per unit of activity) x (Units of activity) + Fixed cost or TC = VX+F

Jan 1, 1999

By Richard Thomas Newcomb

The trend towards proportionately rising volumes of surface mining through- out the world and especially in the United States has led some observers to predict that the future of underground mining is quite limited. Certainly, the simple extrapolation of current trends1 gives evidence of a compelling sort for the hypothesis that technological progress is proceeding at a faster pace in surface than in underground mining. This paper attempts to examine the basis for these predictions by searching the historical record on differential rates of productivity as these are observed in iron ore and coal mining. In recent years economists have discussed "technology gaps" among industries or segments of the same industry, by which they mean that mechanisms for invention and its diffusion are faulty or retarded in such a way that feasible cost-cutting innovations are not applied or developed, even though technicians regard them as practical.2

Jan 1, 1968

By J. L. Hoover

The goal of the drill bit consumption study was to develop an equation(s) based on various components that affect bit drill wear and use the equation(s) to estimate the consumption of bits during production drilling. Drill bit data from various geographic locations were compiled and used to develop linear regression equations using the Microsoft Excel Software. Multiple drill bit consumption equations were developed and statistical analysis was used to verify the accuracy of those equations. The equations will allow mining companies to more accurately forecast drill bit consumption when evaluating new mine properties. This capability becomes increasingly beneficial to forecasting as the cost of consumables increases.

Jan 1, 2012

By J. L. Hoover, P. W. Conrad, J. Downey, S. Parrow, S. Rosenthal

The goal of the drill bit consumption study was to develop an equation(s) based on various components that affect drill bit wear and use that equation(s) to estimate the consumption of bits during production drilling. Drill bit data from various geographic locations were compiled and used to develop linear regression equations using the Microsoft Excel software package. Multiple drill bit consumption equations were developed and statistical analysis was used to verify the accuracy of those equations. The equations will allow mining companies to more accurately forecast drill bit consumption when evaluating new mine properties. This capability becomes increasingly beneficial to forecasting as the cost of consumables increases.

Jan 1, 2012

By Otto E. Zwanzig

You may think long before this talk has been completed that the speaker is belaboring the obvious. Please let me put to rest here and now any doubt which you may have in this regard by assuring you that is precisely my intent, and for a very specific reason. We all profess to know and recognize the obvious, but I am impressed increasingly how often we forget or fail to act upon the obvious. Shortly after starting my first job upon graduation from college, I was asked by my boss to participate in a course on practical communications, particularly as applied to conveying proposals effectively to the client -- be he customer or company president. The concept or philosophy underlying this program was so simple and obvious that in my youthful brashness I saw only a gross waste by the company of e good, solid $1930 in compelling me to take the course. The sequel to this experience occurred about five yews ago when I was directing a 300-man marketing group. At that time I enrolled a dozen of my department heads, and subsequently about a hundred other personnel, in the contemporary version of that sane program. Why? -- because they all knew the obvious, but I could see how imperfectly they were implementing it. Truly, a wide chasm exists all too often in our beliefs on the one hand and our practices on the other.

Jan 1, 1962

By T. J. DeMull

The business of heap leaching requires accurate forecasting of metal production from the heaps. Business forecasts typically follow a format that project periodic (monthly, quarterly, or annual) product shipments based on anticipated operating results, e. g., tons of ore placed, grade of ore, and rate of leach extraction. Since revenue and cash flow are dependent on the metal production stream, forecasts of metal production are very important for project evaluation and business planning purposes. Nevertheless, production forecasts, particularly for new heap leach projects, have been prone to errors. The present paper identifies some of the pitfalls that would be encountered in preparing production forecasts for new heap leach operations and provides a checklist of considerations to assist in preparing a forecast. Also, the paper presents a case study of copper production forecasting used for the Sanchez Project, a heap leach operation located near Safford, Arizona, that is presently under development by AZCO Mining, Inc.

Jan 1, 1995

By David D. Eyer

In today's world coal market, coal quality is becoming increasingly important. Often the coal quality parameters are one of the crucial considerations in the development of a coal mine. Because of the user's tighter specifications and because of strict environmental regulations, coal producers are being called on to predict with increasing accuracy, not only the quality of their product but also the variability of that quality. This area of reserve evaluation is naturally receiving a great deal of scrutiny. Consolidation Coal Company has developed reliable and sophisticated methods for predicting coal quality, but the company's efforts continue to search for even better techniques. The following is a step-wise summary of The methods currently used by consolidation coal company, with A recent project used as an example. Two of the newer, and as yet experimental techniques will be briefly discussed.

Jan 1, 1980

By Richard Newcomb

Since the report of the 1972 Rapid Excavation Conference in the city of Chicago, speculation has continued concerning the estimates of tunneling demand. Little has been published that would persuade me to modify substantially the rather tentative estimates that originated with the National Academy of Sciences-National Academy of Engineering (NAS-NAE) study of 1968 which were recomputed by the United States in the survey of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in 1970. The OECD estimates, of course, hedged the really difficult question of forecasting civil construction tunneling demands. In the United States contribution, this was done by predicting both an upper and lower bound for important categories of demand. A discounting procedure was then applied to each of the major sectors of expenditures, permitting a forecast that reflected the current subjective assessment of how extensively and how likely cities were to adopt plans that required tunneling. This was done for water, utilities, transportation and other novel underground facilities. The purpose of this paper is a modest one. In it I wish to describe the efforts made since 1972 to generate more thoughtful and more robust estimates of urban sector demands, and to apply what has been learned to the most difficult category of predictions: those for urban mass transit systems. The estimates of the Underground Construction Research Council funded by the National Science Foundation have been described at an earlier panel of this Conference. The principal effort I am familiar with is that of

Jan 1, 1974

By James R. Evans

Forecasting demand is an art as well as a science, and much personal judgment is required. National forecasts made for sand and gravel, crushed stone, and/or aggregate may be misleading or unhelpful locally. This is because of significant variation in demand within different geographic and/or political areas in the United States, and/or the use of an inadequate data base and forecasting methodology. The best forecasts may be made for local or regional market areas, irrespective of geographic or political boundaries, provided a proper data base is available. The Bureau of Mines compiles detailed statistics on commodities sold or used in the construction industries and, therefore, is in an advantageous position to make national aggregate demand forecasts.

Jan 1, 1978

By Jake Beale, Joe Wickline, M. Van Dyke, Ted M. Klemetti

A longwall coal mine in southwestern Virginia mining the Pocahontas #3 Coal Seam experienced a history of mining-related seismic events. The events were never large enough to cause concern until three major events occurred recording 3.4, 4.3, and 3.4 ML in 2005, 2006, and 2007 respectively. Two of the seismic events generated an air blast which damaged stoppings which fueled a mine fire in 2005 and 2007. The mine responded to the events by narrowing the longwall widths, changing ventilation controls, installing a 7-sensor seismic system around the active panel, and creating a mining hazard map to avoid similar geology in the future. All of the actions taken have prevented seismic activity from impacting mining operations, but it did not prevent other large seismic events from occurring (Van Dyke et al., 2018). In 2016, another large seismic event, measured at 3.7 ML, occurred in the gob that was reported by the local media and recorded by the United States Geological Survey (USGS). While the event did not directly impact mining operations, mine management wanted to know where and under what conditions could large seismic events occur in the future. The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) became involved to help understand what conditions precipitated these events so that future mine design could more accurately assess seismic hazards and reduce the risk to mine worker safety. Researchers at NIOSH and mine management created a seismic forecasting map that combined three factors: (1) overburden thickness, (2) sandstone thickness, and (3) the expected caving height of the gob. The criteria were developed based on the geologic data the mine collected from core drilling, e-log analysis, and fiberscope observations. The forecast map was able to provide an accuracy of 72%–85% of events 1.5 ML or greater and 100% accuracy of events that were 3.0 ML or greater based on historical data. The seismic forecasting map was applied to the entire future mining area to show areas where seismic potential could be the greatest based on current mine design planning, ultimately improving the ability of the mine operator to assess the seismic hazards surrounding active and future mining areas (Van Dyke et al. 2018). Following this research, the seismic forecasting map was implemented into the mine’s hazard recognition program and is continuously updated and evaluated prior to mining each longwall panel. This paper will cover in more detail how the seismic and lithologic data was processed and how the mine implemented a new seismic mitigation program based on the forecasting results.

Apr 26, 2022

By S. K. Oraee

Most management decisions at all levels of the organization are as directly or indirectly depends on the circumstance of future. With regard to predict the future events in the process of decision-making plays a main role, therefore, forecasting is very important for every organizations and institutions. There is a variety of methods to predict time series. In general, these techniques can be divided as following: statistical, artificial intelligence and analytical techniques. Two of the most common methods for time series prediction is autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and artificial neural network (ANN) methods, these methods are the subset of statistical and artificial intelligence techniques respectively. In this paper, a hybrid model of ARIMA and ANN models are employed to predict the number of fatal injuries in the USA underground coal mines. This research showed the result of hybrid model is better than split model.

Jan 1, 2011

By J. E. Russell

The purpose of this paper is to describe an independent study which forecasts Texas coal production, specifically for electric power generation. This study, extending to the year 2000, is justified on the following basis. Texas produces and consumes considerably more electric energy than any other state, has consistently high growth rates in the population and industrial sectors, and has large lignite reserves. Also, since recent forecasts have been criticized as overly optimistic, this study is timely when considering the long lead times required in obtaining new power sources. In the study demand for electric energy was assumed to rest on two dominant factors: 1) overall state of the Texas economy as measured by the Texas Gross State Product (TGSP) and 2) Texas population. Demand models were prepared and tested following a study of several options. A final linear regression demand model with time lags for the two variables was chosen on the basis of good correlations. On the supply side, uncertainties such as impact of nuclear sources, gas-fired cogeneration, and ratio of imported to lignite coal exist. These uncertainties were studied with high and low cases for effects on lignite. Finally a simple supply model was chosen. Results of the study indicate that lignite production in Texas will rise from the current (1984) 40 million tons per year (XTPY) to the range of 77 to 124 MTPY and more probably 100 HTPY in the year 2000.

Jan 1, 1984

By Steve Kral

Competition from foreign coal producers could displace as much as 9 Mt/a (10 million stpy) of US coal bound for power plants located near waterways. But, according to a Maryland-based coal consultant, it could be worse. Theoretically, about 52 Mt (57 million st) of domestic coal could be vulnerable to imports by 1990, said Forrest Hill, of Hill & Associates of Annapolis. Hill was speaking to about 150 coal industry executives and experts at the third annual Coal Marketing Strategies Conference in November. Most were at the Denver, CO conference to pick up tips on how to sell coal in an oversupplied market. Imports threaten domestic markets Of the 200 utilities studied by Hill and his staff, 119 are situated near major waterways, he said. However, most of those waterways are not equipped to handle coal from the shipping lanes. Good news for US coal producers. But don't breathe too easily. Foreign coal still poses a major threat to domestic markets, Hill continued. The strength of the US dollar is an obvious factor. But easy access to US utilities located on waterways combined with low rates for ocean vessels give foreign producers another edge. And foreign mines are typically low cost producers. For example, Hill said Colombia's huge Cerrejon mine can deliver coal to an Illinois power plant for $47.87/t ($43.39 per st). That compares to $52.85/t ($47.95 per st) from a Kentucky coal mine. Also, Colombian coal producers can generate a cash flow even if the coal sells for $27.50/t ($25 per st). The main competition US producers face from abroad, as Hill sees it, comes from Australia, Canada, Colombia, Poland, South Africa, and, perhaps, from Venezuela. Domestic producers, however, do have some things going for them. Most US coal buyers, Hill said, "are not wild about the idea of buying foreign coal." A 10% price advantage or pressure from public utility commissions would be needed to force some of them to buy foreign coal, he said. Some of the utilities contacted said they would not commit to more than one-third of their stockpiles to a foreign source. Another advantage for US producers is that they have room in their long-term contracts to cut prices and still maintain a profit, Hill said. Railroads, too, have high profit margins written into their rate structures. They are also aware of the import threat. Therefore, they may reduce their rates accordingly to keep their markets. Marketing's role The energy price shocks of 1972 and 1976 caused major adjustments in world economics. Coal was no exception. High oil prices caused many utilities to look at less expensive coal. As the market improved, coal prices began to respond, said R. Gale Daniel, of Anaconda Minerals Co. But clean air legislation and the strengthening dollar caused havoc in the coal markets, he said. The price of oil crashed, taking with it predictions of record coal use. The result is an oversupply of coal that has led to price cutting. Now, coal marketing must be recognized in its "true leadership role," Daniel said. Marketing people must know when to use spot sales to balance production objectives and maintain cost-effective-

Jan 1, 1986

By Thomas G. Langton

The demand for mineral raw materials, especially in the major industrialized nations, has grown rapidly during the past three decades. One consequence of this growth has been an increasing reliance by the large industrialized countries upon nondomestic mineral supplies. These mineral supplies, to a large extent, have been developed by capital from the major industrialized countries. Until recently, most foreign mining ventures were either wholly-owned subsidiaries or joint ventures between two or more mining companies. The recent rise of economic nationalism has substantially changed the business climate and parameters under which foreign investors operate. This paper describes some of the underlying reasons for this change and notes how investors have adapted to the new business conditions.

Jan 1, 1974

By Louis J. Sousa, Elizabeth H. Yaremchuk, Annette P. Graham

Introduction Responding to Congressional inquiries regarding the purchase of a number of major domestic mining and metals companies by foreign firms, the US Bureau of Mines examined trends in foreign direct investment in the US. mining and mineral processing industries1. "Foreign Direct Investment in the US Minerals Industry" analyzes the extent of foreign investment in several major mineral commodity industries. It identified the countries of origin of foreign investment in US mineral assets. The study also described several reasons for the growth of foreign investment in US minerals and discussed some potential implications of this activity. Foreign investment trends in the economy and minerals For the economy as a whole, between 1977 and 1985 the number of US affiliates of foreign investors more than doubled - from 4046 to 9824 - as did employment at these affiliates - from 1.2 million workers to 2.9 million (Table 1)2. During this same time period, the total value of assets of all US affiliates throughout the economy rose from $239 billion to $736 billion (1985 constant dollars). In the domestic minerals industry, foreign investment also grew substantially during that same time as the number of US minerals-related affiliates increased by 74% - from 125 to 217 - between 1977 and 19853. During the same period, employment at all foreign-owned affiliate mineral operations in this country increased by 78% and totaled 198,000 workers at the end of 1985. Parallelling the growth in the number of and employment at foreign-owned US mineral and metal operations, the total value of US mineral assets owned by foreign firms (or individuals) has nearly doubled since 1977 and amounted to $30.9 billion at the end of 1985. The rate of increase in foreign investment in US mineral assets was slightly higher in the metals industries than in the nonmetallic groups. Foreign investment more prevalent in minerals Perhaps a more useful way of evaluating the growth in foreign investment is to analyze growth in the "intensity" of foreign investment - the proportion of total US industry assets held by foreign investors. Although insufficient data on total industry assets prevented the development of such a measure, employment data provide an indication of relative differences in the intensity of foreign investment among the mineral industries and other industries. For example, as noted in Fig. 1, the 198,000 minerals industry workers employed at US-affiliate companies in 1985 represented 12.7% of total employment in this sector of the economy. In comparison, for the mining and manufacturing sectors of the economy as a whole, 7.8% of all workers were employed at US-affiliate firms in 1985. For the total economy, 2.7% of the entire civilian employed workforce worked at US-affiliate firms that year. Using employment as an indicator, foreign investment has been more prevalent in the minerals industry than in most other industries. About one worker in eight in the minerals sector was employed at a US-affiliate firm in 1985. In comparison, for the goods producing sectors of the economy - all mining, petroleum, and manufacturing industries - about one worker in 13 was employed at a

Jan 8, 1988

By Charles Bruce

Three years ago, at a reception given during the Steel Institute meeting in New York, I heard the remark, "A new formula must be found for foreign investment." This was immediately following the takeover of U. S. Steel's Matilde operation in Bolivia. Recently, at the World Mining Congress in Lima, Peru, the subject of foreign investment was still a lively topic of conversation. The nationalization of the copper mines in Chile and recent trends in the "Third World" have made all but a few extremely wary of investment anywhere other than in the ?stable? countries. Now, the fallibility of this philosophy has been demonstrated in such "stable" countries as Canada, Australia, and Ireland. Yet, nationalization is not new to us. The events in Chile were classified as disastrous to the affected companies, but so were the effects of nationalization to the majors in Bolivia in 1952. Mexicanization of the mining industry in Mexico was considered impractical by many. Now, those who accepted it are finding it to be workable.

Jan 1, 1975

By Arthur E. Belton

Ever since the industrial Revolution both major and small companies have put much emphasis on the use of incentives to compensate top management for extra effort and extra skill. For many years industries have also provided hourly rate employees with incentive plans. More recently incentive plans have been extended to include the "front line" supervisors. Many companies have what are called Christmas bonus or profit-sharing plans. The incentives for foremen in mining, which we shall discuss, differ from such bonus plans in that the incentives are paid on a definite measured performance for each individual, and thus directly reflect his effort and skill. What is the objective for paying incentives? The objective for any part of an industrial Engineering Program is to increase productivity and reduce unit cost. The unit cost must include the entire cost of the program. From what base do we start an incentive plan? One should think of art incentive program as the top rung of the Industrial Engineering ladder. Therefore, a company must take several steps before reaching this top rung. The following steps are necessary:

Jan 1, 1960

By Hugh K. Herbert, R. John Watling

Laser Ablation-Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrom­etry (LA-ICP-MS) has been used successfully to "fingerprint" gold in forensic investigations within Australia and abroad. By comparison of the elemental associations it has been possible to relate gold to specific mineralising events, mines, bullion samples and fabricated articles. The methodology facilitates identification of the provenance of gold thereby providing definitive scientific evidence in criminal investigations. "Gold" samples for analysis span a wide range of materials with many requiring exhaustive prior separation and treatment to present the contained gold in a chemically "unmodified" state, and in a form, suitable for LA-ICP-MS fingerprinting. The quality of the fingerprint, and hence its value in evidence, is directly related to the rigours of prior sample preparation and evaluation, to an appreciation of the history of the gold under investigation, and to the skill of the analyst.

Jan 1, 1995